000
AXPZ20 KNHC 281547
TWDEP

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1605 UTC Fri Aug 28 2026

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and
from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following
information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations,
radar, and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1500 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Tropical Storm Karina is centered near 13.2N 115.0W at 28/1500
UTC, moving northwest at 9 kt. Estimated minimum central
pressure is 999 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 45 kt with
gusts to 55 kt. Peak seas are around 18 ft (5.0 m). Numerous 
moderate to strong convection is noted within 120 nm of center. 
Karina is moving toward the northwest, and this general motion 
is expected to continue over the next day or so, followed by a 
more westward turn. Strengthening is forecast and Karina is 
likely to become a large hurricane well offshore of the coast of 
SW Mexico over the weekend. Swells generated by Karina will begin
to affect portions of the coast of southwest Mexico and the Baja
California Peninsula this weekend. These swells are likely to 
cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions.

Please read the latest HIGH SEAS FORECAST issued by the National
Hurricane Center at website 
- https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFEP2.shtml and the latest 
Karina NHC Forecast/Advisory and Public Advisory at 
www.hurricanes.gov for more details.

Tropical Storm Lowell is centered near 12.5N 132.8W at 28/1500
UTC, moving north-northwest at 4 kt. Estimated minimum central
pressure is 1003 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 40 kt with
gusts to 50 kt. Peak seas are currently around 11 ft (3.5 m). 
Numerous moderate to strong convection is observed within 120 nm
W semicircle. Lowell is moving toward the north-northwest. A 
turn toward the west is expected by tomorrow, with that motion 
continuing into early next week. Strengthening is likely during 
the next several days, and Lowell is forecast to become a 
hurricane over the weekend.

Please read the latest HIGH SEAS FORECAST issued by the National
Hurricane Center at website 
- https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFEP2.shtml and the latest 
Lowell NHC Forecast/Advisory and Public Advisory at 
www.hurricanes.gov for more details.
 
...TROPICAL WAVES...

The axis of a tropical wave is along 94W north of 06N into SE Mexico,
moving quickly westward at around 25 kt. Numerous moderate to strong
convection is seen from 08N to 12N between 90W and 98W. 

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

The monsoon trough extends from 10N84W to 10N106W, and from 10N138W
to 10N140W. In addition to the convection near Karina Lowell and
the tropical wave, numerous moderate to strong convection is active
from 03N to 07N E of 85W to the coast of Colombia. Scattered
moderate isolated strong convection is noted from 04N to 11N W 
of 116W.

...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...

Please see the Special Features section for more information on Tropical
Storm Karina.

Fresh to strong winds and rough seas associated with the outer periphery
of Karina are reaching the Revillagigedo Islands. Marine conditions
will continue to deteriorate in the this area, and Tropical Storm
conditions are possible tonight and Sat. Fresh to strong N to NE gap
winds persist across the Gulf of Tehuantepec. In the Gulf of
California, light to gentle winds and slight seas are occurring.
Elsewhere across the Mexican offshore waters, gentle to moderate
winds and 3 to 5 ft seas prevail. 

For the forecast, Tropical Storm Karina is near 13.2N 115.0W at 8 AM 
PDT, and is moving northwest at 9 kt. Maximum sustained winds 
are 45 kt with gusts to 55 kt, and the minimum central pressure 
is 999 mb. Karina will move to 14.1N 116.0W this evening, 
strengthen to a hurricane near 15.6N 117.8W Sat morning, 16.7N 
119.6W Sat evening, 17.6N 121.4W Sun morning, 18.0N 123.0W Sun 
evening, and 18.3N 124.7W Mon morning. Karina will change little 
in intensity as it moves to near 19.1N 127.8W early Tue. Fresh 
to strong northerly gap winds will continue to pulse in the Gulf 
of Tehuantepec through early Sun with locally rough seas there at
times, then pulsing to moderate to fresh thereafter. A surge of 
fresh to locally strong southeasterly winds is possible in the
northern Gulf of California tonight through Sun night. Looking 
ahead, another area of low pressure is forecast to form this 
weekend well to the south of southwestern Mexico. Environmental 
conditions appear favorable for gradual development of this 
system, and a tropical depression is likely to form early next 
week while it moves west-northwestward to northwestward at 10 to 
15 kt, possibly brining increasing winds and seas along a similar
path to Karina. 

...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, 
AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...

Fresh to strong easterly gap winds persist in the Gulf of Papagayo
and downwind to near 10N90W, with 6 to 8 ft seas there. Gentle 
to moderate winds and 4 to 6 ft seas are noted elsewhere. Scattered
showers and thunderstorms are active off Colombia and south of 
the Azuero Peninsula to about 03N. 

For the forecast, easterly fresh to strong gap winds will continue
to pulse in the Gulf of Papagayo area through the upcoming
weekend into early next week, then weakening slightly thereafter.
Associated moderate to fresh winds will extend well downwind to 
the outer offshore waters of El Salvador and Guatemala. Southerly
winds may freshen south of the monsoon trough this weekend into 
early next week. Winds will be moderate or weaker elsewhere with 
mainly moderate seas. Convection will remain active near the 
monsoon trough. 

...REMAINDER OF THE AREA...

Please see the Special Features section for more information
about Tropical Storm Karina and Tropical Storm Lowell.

The remnant low of Post-Tropical cyclone Iselle is near 24N130W 
with a central pressure of 1007 mb. Fresh to strong winds and 
moderate seas are occurring from 26N to 29N between 127W and 
133W. Elsewhere, mainly moderate or weaker winds dominate the 
remainder of the open waters both north and south of the monsoon 
trough away from the two tropical storms and Post-Tropical 
cyclone Iselle. Rough seas generated by Karina cover the waters 
from 04N to 18N between 105W and 118W. Seas are mainly moderate 
across the remainder of the open waters.

For the forecast, Tropical Storm Karina is near 13.2N 115.0W at 
8 AM PDT, and is moving northwest at 9 kt. Maximum sustained 
winds are 45 kt with gusts to 55 kt, and the minimum central 
pressure is 999 mb. Karina will move to 14.1N 116.0W this 
evening, strengthen to a hurricane near 15.6N 117.8W Sat morning,
16.7N 119.6W Sat evening, 17.6N 121.4W Sun morning, 18.0N 123.0W
Sun evening, and 18.3N 124.7W Mon morning. Karina will change 
little in intensity as it moves to near 19.1N 127.8W early Tue.
Tropical Storm Lowell is near 12.5N 132.8W at 8 AM PDT, and is
moving north-northwest at 4 kt. Maximum sustained winds are 40
kt with gusts to 50 kt, and the minimum central pressure is 1003
mb. Lowell will move to 12.6N 133.1W this evening, 12.8N 134.3W
Sat morning, 13.0N 135.6W Sat evening, 13.2N 137.5W Sun morning,
strengthen to a hurricane near 13.5N 139.1W Sun evening, and
13.7N 140.9W Mon morning. Lowell will change little in intensity
as it moves to near 14.2N 144.2W early Tue. 

$$ 
GR