127 
AXPZ20 KNHC 150214
TWDEP 

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0405 UTC Thu May 15 2025

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and
from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following
information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations,
radar, and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0210 UTC.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

The monsoon trough extends from 08N78W to 08N100W to 1009 mb low
pressure near 08N90W to 11N110W to 10N115W. The ITCZ continues 
from 10N115W to beyond 08N140W. Numerous moderate to isolated 
strong convection is active from 05N to 10N between 95W and 110W.

...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...

A ridge extends from 1034 mb high pressure near 37N139W 
southeastward to the Revillagigedo Islands, while low pressure 
prevails over Mexico. The pressure gradient between these
features is supporting moderate to fresh NW winds off the Baja 
California peninsula as well as off Cabo Corrientes. Gentle to 
moderate winds are elsewhere over the discussion waters, 
including in the Gulf of California. Seas are in the 8-9 ft 
range off Baja California north of Cabo San Lazaro, and 5-7 ft 
elsewhere off Baja California Sur. Fresh to strong may be active
along the coasts of Jalisco and Colima. Seas of 4-6 ft are 
elsewhere over the open waters off Mexico. Seas are 3 ft or less 
over the Gulf of California.

For the forecast, the pattern will support fresh winds west of 
the Baja California peninsula and off the coasts of Jalisco and 
Colima through tonight, with large NW swell west of the Baja 
peninsula into Fri. Moderate or weaker winds and moderate seas, 
primarily in SW swell, will prevail elsewhere. A trough will move
into Baja California and the northern Gulf of California Sat and
Sat night, followed by rough seas in NW swell Sun and Mon west 
of Baja California Norte. Strong SW gap winds and rough seas are 
possible late Sat over the northern Gulf of California ahead of 
the trough. 

...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, 
AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...

Moderate to locally fresh winds are over and downstream the Gulf
of Papagayo. Light to gentle winds are elsewhere north of the 
monsoon trough. Gentle to moderate winds are south of the monsoon
trough. Seas are in the 5-7 ft range between Ecuador and the 
Galapagos Islands, reaching 8 ft south of the Galapagos Islands.
Elsewhere, seas are in the 4-5 ft range.

For the forecast, numerous showers and thunderstorms will 
persist over the offshore waters from Colombia to Costa Rica 
through at least Sat. Gentle to moderate winds will prevail 
across the region through Sat, then diminish through Mon. Expect 
moderate to rough seas in long period SW swell between Ecuador 
and the Galapagos Islands through Thu. Slight to moderate seas, 
primarily in SW swell, will prevail elsewhere. 

...REMAINDER OF THE AREA....

A ridge prevails over the waters north of 20N and west of 110W. 
The pressure gradient between the ridge and lower pressure in the
vicinity of the ITCZ is supporting moderate trade winds north of
the ITCZ and west of 120W. NW swell is bringing seas of 7-9 ft 
over the waters north of a line from 20N140W to 26N120W. Gentle 
to locally moderate winds and seas of 5-6 ft are noted elsewhere 
in a mix of swell. 

For the forecast, the pressure gradient between high pressure 
over the waters north of 20N and low pressure in the vicinity of
the ITCZ will support moderate to fresh NE winds north of the 
ITCZ and west of 120W through early next week. The NW swell will
combine with seas from trade winds from 10N to 20N west of 130W 
through the latter part of the week.

$$
Christensen