686 
AXPZ20 KNHC 062332 CCA
TWDEP 

Tropical Weather Discussion...Corrected
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
2205 UTC Fri Jun 06 2025

Corrected Remainder of the Area section

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and
from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following
information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations,
radar, and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2145 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Numerous moderate to isolated strong convection has increased 
a little on the eastern side of a broad trough of low pressure 
that is located a couple of hundred miles south of southern 
Mexico. Low pressure (Invest EP92) of 1008 mb is analyzed along 
the trough near 11N97W. A convectively induced tight gradient is 
bringing strong east to southeast winds between the low pressure 
and the coast of Mexico, or from 11N to 16N between 93W and 98W 
as noted in a recent scatterometer satellite data pass over that 
part of the forecast waters. Seas are 5 to 8 ft with these winds 
as shown in the most recent altimeter satellite data pass. 
Environmental conditions appear conducive for additional 
development, and a short-lived tropical depression is likely to 
form over the weekend while the system moves generally west- 
northwestward just off the coast of Mexico possibly reaching near
Socorro Island early next week. Interests in southern and 
southwestern Mexico should monitor the progress of this system. 
Expect winds to increase and seas to build across the offshore 
waters of southern Mexico between Puerto Angel and Cabo 
Corrientes Sat through Sun. This system has a medium chance of 
becoming a tropical cyclone during the next 48 hours. Please 
refer to the latest NHC Tropical Weather Outlook at 
www.hurricanes.gov for more details.
 
A low pressure system (Invest EP91) located several hundred 
miles south of southwestern Mexico, or near 10N106W with a 
pressure of 1007 mb is gradually becoming better defined.
Associated scattered moderate convection is limited over 
the area from 08N to 11N between 103W and 108W. The most 
recent altimeter satellite data pass indicated seas to 
around 8 ft within 180 nm to the southwest of the low pressure. 
Gradual development of this system is expected, and a tropical 
depression is likely to form over the weekend or early next week 
while the system moves generally west-northwestward. This system 
has a medium chance of becoming a tropical cyclone during the 
next 48 hours. Please refer to the latest NHC Tropical Weather 
Outlook at www.hurricanes.gov for more details.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

The monsoon trough axis extends from NW Colombia to northern
Panama and to 09N84W to 11N97W to 13N101W to 09N110W to 08N120W 
to 07N126W, where it transitions to the ITCZ and continues to 
08N130W to beyond 07N140W. Aside from convection associated with
the Special Features areas, scattered moderate convection is 
seen within 120 nm south of the trough between 103W-114W, also 
within 60 nm south of the trough between 120W-123W, and within 
60 nm south of the ITCZ between 128W-140W.

...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...

Please read the Special Features section for information on two
areas of low pressure with potential for tropical cyclone 
development.

A weak pressure pattern in place is allowing for generally 
gentle to moderate NW to N winds offshore Baja California,
with occasional fresh winds south of Punta Eugenia. Light to
gentle winds are elsewhere off southern Mexico and in the Gulf 
of California. Combined seas are 4 to 6 ft off Baja California 
primarily in NW swell, and 3 to 5 ft primarily in long-period SW 
swell off southern Mexico, with the exception of the strong 
winds related to Invest EP92 as described above under Special 
Features. Seas of 2 to 4 ft are over the Gulf of California.

For the forecast, the main issue will be the potential for
a short-lived tropical depression to form off southern Mexico 
described in the Special Features section. Expect fresh to strong
winds with building seas over the offshore waters off western 
Oaxaca and Guerrero starting this evening, with the range of 
these seas of 7 to 10 ft in south to southwest swell.
 
These adverse conditions will expand westward across the offshore
waters toward Cabo Corrientes through Sun as low pressure 
farther to the south off the coast possibly becomes a tropical 
depression. Mariners should continue to monitor the latest 
statements from the National Hurricane Center on the possible 
tropical cyclone development. Gentle to moderate winds and
seas of 5 to 7 ft in south to southwest swell are expected 
elsewhere outside the impacted waters of the Special Feature low 
pressure (Invest EP91) through the weekend.

...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, 
AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...

A weak pressure gradient remains over the area resulting
generally in  gentle to moderate southerly winds south of the 
monsoon trough, and light to gentle winds to the north of it. 
Cross-equatorial southwest swell is producing moderate seas 
across the offshore forecast waters.

For the forecast, gentle to moderate south to southwest winds 
will occur south of the monsoon trough through this weekend, with
mainly gentle winds expected to the north, except for moderate 
to fresh winds off Nicaragua tonight and Sat night. Moderate seas
in cross- equatorial swell are likely over the regional waters 
into this weekend. Abundant deep tropical moisture will persist 
across the region maintaining a high likelihood of additional 
showers and thunderstorms through the weekend. On Wed and Wed 
night, moderate to fresh W to NW monsoon gyre winds are expected 
mainly across the western portions of the offshore zones along 
with an increase in moisture.

...REMAINDER OF THE AREA....

Strong high pressure of 1031 mb is located well north of the 
area near 41N142W, while a persistent trough, supported by broad 
upper troughing, is analyzed from a 1011 mb low that is offshore 
central California southwestward to 30N124W and continuing to 
near 22N131W. A tight pressure gradient between ridging 
associated to the 1031 mb high and the trough is resulting in 
fresh northeast winds north of about 24N and west of a line from 
30N129W to 24N156W as indicated in the latest scatterometer 
satellite data pass across that part of the area. Both Sofar 
spotter buoy data, and a recent altimeter satellite data pass 
reveal seas of 8 to 9 ft in northeast swell with these winds. 
Moderate to fresh northeast winds are over the western part of 
the area from about 07N to 12N west of 135W. Seas with these 
winds are 8 ft in north to northeast swell. Elsewhere, mainly 
gentle to moderate winds are noted along with 5 to 7 ft seas in 
a mix of north and southwest swell. 

For the forecast, guidance indicates that a trough will form 
within the area of the moderate to fresh north to northeast 
winds during the weekend and shift westward. The gradient
between the trough and the high pressure to the north should 
extend the duration of the moderate to fresh northeast winds 
through late in the weekend, and possibly into early Mon even
as the trough shifts west of 140W. The seas to 8 ft in north 
to northeast swell with these winds appear that they will linger
as well. The 8 to 9 ft seas in northeast swell over the northwest
part of the are should decay by early Sat.

$$
Aguirre