000
AXPZ20 KNHC 272129
TWDEP 

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
2205 UTC Sat Dec 27 2025

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and
from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following
information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations,
radar, and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2105 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Significant Swell and Developing Low Pressure: Large northwest 
swell continues to induce very rough seas over the waters north 
of 24N and west of about 119W, with seas peaking to around 14 ft
(4.5 m) north of 28N and between 120W and 133W. This was 
confirmed by a recent altimeter satellite pass. Wave period with 
these seas is of 12-14 sec. Rough seas extend southward into the 
trades waters and eastward to the offshore waters of Baja 
California. The swell will slowly subside through late Sun south 
of 28N. Rough seas of 8 to 12 ft are likely to prevail through 
the weekend across the offshore waters of Baja California from 
17N to 26N.

In the meantime, a surface trough currently extending from
20N122W to 11N125W is producing a large area of showers and
thunderstorms. A recent scatterometer satellite pass indicate
that strong to near gale-force winds are occurring with the
strongest convection. Global models suggest that a low pressure 
will develop in association with this trough across the waters 
south of about 22N between 120W and 128W Sun into early next 
week. This will combine with high pressure building into the 
region resulting in a rather broad zone of increasing winds 
reaching to strong speeds roughly from 16N to 26N and west of the
Revillagigedo Islands, accompanied by scattered showers and 
isolated thunderstorms. There is a possibility of these winds 
reaching gale-force speeds, especially in the squalls. Rough to
very rough seas will spread over much of the basin north of 10N
and west of 115W. Seas may reach 15 ft with the strongest winds.
Conditions will improve by midweek.

Please read the latest High Seas Forecast issued by the National
Hurricane Center at website:
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFEP2.shtml for more information.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

The monsoon trough extends from 07N77W to 09N84W and to 07N94W. 
The ITCZ stretches from 07N94W to 09N115W and beyond 08N140W. 
Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is occurring 
from 08N to 24N and between 117W and 129W. 

...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...

A 1032 mb high pressure system centered near 40N136W extends a
ridge to the Revillagigedo Islands, supporting moderate to
locally fresh northerly winds across the offshore waters of Baja
California. A decaying NW swell sustains seas of 8-13 ft north of
Punta Eugenia and 5-8 ft south of Punta Eugenia. Moderate to
locally fresh NW winds and slight to moderate seas are found in
the Gulf of California. Meanwhile, winds in the Gulf of
Tehuantepec have diminish below strong force and currently,
moderate to fresh northerly winds prevail. Seas in these waters
are 4-6 ft. Elsewhere, moderate or weaker winds and slight to 
moderate seas prevail.

For the forecast, northwest swell propagating through the offshore
waters of the Baja California peninsula will diminish through 
the weekend. Fresh to locally strong northwest winds are likely 
to develop in the Gulf of California Sun into Tue as high 
pressure strengthens across the region. A weak high pressure will
support moderate to fresh N winds in the Gulf of Tehuantepec 
through Sun morning. Looking ahead, a strong cold front will move
across the Gulf of America Mon into Tue. Building ridge behind 
the front will support the next gap wind event in the Gulf of 
Tehuantepec, reaching gale conditions late Mon night and 
continuing through Wed night. Winds may peak around 40-45 kt, 
supporting rough to very rough seas. Conditions will improve Thu 
into Fri.

...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, 
AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...

A broad high pressure centered over the eastern Gulf of America
extends southward into the region. A recent scatterometer
satellite pass captured fresh to strong easterly trade winds
across the Gulf of Papagayo. Seas in these waters are 4-6 ft. The
satellite-derived wind data also noted a weak low pressure off
Colombia that is producing a few showers and isolated thunderstorms
and strong to near gale-force winds in association with the 
strongest convection. Elsewhere, moderate or weaker winds and 
moderate seas prevail.

For the forecast, high pressure north of the basin will support
pulsing fresh to strong easterly trade winds in the Gulf of
Papagayo through the forecast period. Gentle to moderate
northerly winds are expected in the Gulf of Panama through the
period, pulsing to fresh at night at times. Gentle or lighter 
winds and slight to moderate seas are expected elsewhere through 
the period. 

...REMAINDER OF THE AREA...

Please read the Special Features section for details on significant
swell and developing low pressure impacting much of the northern
waters.

A strong high pressure centered well north of the tropical eastern
Pacific extends southward into our waters. Moderate to fresh 
NE-E winds are found over much of the basin north of 10N and west
of 115W. Seas in these waters are 8-15 ft as discussed in the 
Special Features section. Elsewhere, moderate or weaker winds and
moderate seas are prevalent.

For the forecast, the decaying NW swell is forecast to diminish
through the weekend as high pressure builds into the regional
waters. The surface trough in the trades waters near 122W will
support the formation of a broad low pressure on Sun. The tight
pressure gradient between the subtropical ridge and the low
pressure will sustain a large area of strong to near gale-force
winds and rough to very rough seas, occupying much of the
forecast waters north of 10N and west of 115W into early next
week. Winds may reach gales at times, especially in squalls.
Conditions will improve midweek. Looking ahead, a cold front will
move across the NW waters late next week and strong NW winds and
rough to very rough seas may follow the front.

$$
Delgado