000
AXPZ20 KNHC 132148
TWDEP

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
2205 UTC Mon Jul 13 2026

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and
from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following
information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations,
radar, and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2130 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Offshore of Southwestern Mexico: Low pressure is developing about
240 nm S-SW of Acapulco, Mexico, along a tropical wave. Strong 
to near-gale force winds, rough seas, and numerous thunderstorms 
are ongoing off Guerrero and western Oaxaca. The winds and seas 
were partially sampled by recent scatterometer and altimeter 
satellite passes. Environmental conditions appear favorable for 
development, and a tropical depression is expected to form over 
the next couple of days while the system moves generally west- 
northwestward, remaining off the coast of mainland Mexico. Expect
strong winds and rough seas near the Revillagigedo Islands by 
Tue night, as the low pressure makes its closest point of 
approach to the south of the islands. The latest Tropical Weather
Outlook gives this system a high chance of tropical cyclone 
formation in the next 48 hours. Please read the latest Tropical 
Weather Outlook issued by the National Hurricane Center at 
www.hurricanes.gov for further details. 

...TROPICAL WAVES...

The axis of a tropical wave is near 80W, north of 02N, moving 
westward at around 15 to 20 kt. Any nearby convection is 
described below in the ITCZ/monsoon trough section.

The axis of a tropical wave is near 102W, from 04N northward, 
moving westward at around 10 to 15 kt. Any nearby convection is 
described below in the ITCZ/monsoon trough section, with 
additional details also in the Special Features section regarding
the potential for tropical cyclone formation.

The axis of a tropical wave is along 133W from 04N to 19N, 
moving westward at around 5-10 kt. A 1009 mb low pressure is 
analyzed along the wave axis near 14N133W. Any nearby convection 
is described below in the ITCZ/monsoon trough section.
 
...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

The monsoon trough extends from 10N85W to 07N90W. Segments of 
the ITCZ continues from 07N90W to 09N98W, and from 08N105W to 
06N125W to 11N130W. The monsoon trough resumes from 12N133W to 
beyond 10N140W. Numerous moderate to isolated strong convection 
is active from 15N to 18N between 100W and 105W. Scattered 
moderate convection is active from 03N to 13N between 95W and 
110W, and from 12N to 25N between 125W and 130W.

...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...

In addition to the winds and seas described in the Special
Features section off southwest Mexico, a recent scatterometer 
satellite pass confirmed fresh gap winds across the Gulf of
Tehuantepec. Broad ridging is evident elsewhere off Baja 
California, supporting gentle to moderate breezes and 3-5 ft seas
elsewhere, except light breezes and 1-3 ft seas in the Gulf of 
California. 

For the forecast, in addition to the impacts of the developing 
low pressure described in the Special Features section above, the
ridge will continue to dominate the offshore forecast waters of 
Baja California through early Thu, allowing for gentle to 
moderate NW to N winds to continue along with moderate seas in 
mixed swell. In the Gulf of California, mainly gentle winds will 
prevail through Tue night, increasing to moderate to locally 
fresh in the central and northern portions midweek. Fresh to 
strong northerly winds will pulse in the Gulf of Tehuantepec 
during the week, strongest during the late night and early 
morning hours, with locally rough seas at times. 

....OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA,
AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...

A recent scatterometer satellite pass confirmed fresh to strong 
E winds across the Gulf of Papagayo, with moderate to fresh 
easterly winds elsewhere from 10N to 12N. Winds are light to 
gentle across the remainder of the waters per overnight 
scatterometer passes. Moderate seas dominate the waters. Areas of
convection associated with the monsoon trough are described 
above with locally higher winds and seas.

For the forecast, fresh to strong gap winds will prevail in the 
Papagayo region mainly at night through at least Fri night along
with moderate to locally rough seas. Fresh to locally strong 
winds and rough seas are forecast to impact the offshore waters 
of El Salvador and Guatemala today due to the departing presence
of a tropical wave several hundred nautical miles south of the 
coast of southern Mexico. Moderate or weaker winds and moderate 
seas in SW swell will prevail elsewhere, except in the lee of the
Galapagos Islands where slight seas are expected. 

...REMAINDER OF THE AREA...

A recent scatterometer satellite pass indicated fresh E to SE 
winds on the northern end of the tropical wave along 133W. 
Earlier altimeter satellite data indicated seas to 8 ft in this 
area, near 15N130W. Gentle to moderate winds 4-6 ft prevail 
elsewhere, except for fresh SE winds and 5-7 ft seas south of 07N
between 95W and 105W.

For the forecast, winds and seas associated with the tropical
wave near 133W diminish through tonight, and further tropical 
development is not expected. NE winds will freshen with seas 5-7
ft thereafter north of 15N and west of 125W between broad low 
pressure along the monsoon trough riding farther north.
Elsewhere, the main issue will be the development and track of
the low pressure described in the Special Features section above.
Expect tropical cyclone development with this low pressure
through mid week as it moves northwest of the Revillagigedo
Islands. Farther south, moderate to fresh SE winds and 5-7 ft
seas will cross the Equator between 100W and 120W and reach as
far north as 10N through mid week. Looking ahead, another area 
of low pressure is expected to form by the middle of the week 
several hundred miles south of the coast of southern Mexico. 
Environmental conditions appear conducive for gradual development
of this system thereafter, and there is a medium chance tropical
depression could form by the end of the weekend while it moves 
generally west- northwestward well offshore of Mexico. 

$$
Christensen