000
AXPZ20 KNHC 030927
TWDEP

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1005 UTC Thu Sep 3 2026

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and
from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following
information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations,
radar, and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0915 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Hurricane Karina is centered near 19.6N 135.7W at 03/0900 UTC,
moving west-northwest at 10 kt. Estimated minimum central
pressure is 957 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 105 kt with
gusts to 130 kt. Peak seas remain around 45 ft. Numerous 
moderate to scattered strong convection is observed from 18N to 
22N between 133W and 137W. A general WNW motion is expected to 
continue for the next couple of days, with a more northwestward 
motion by this weekend. Karina is a category 3 hurricane on the 
Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale. Gradual weakening is
forecast during the next several days. However, Karina is 
expected to remain a hurricane for the next couple of days.

Hurricane Marie is centered near 18.9N 113.9W at 03/0900 UTC,
moving west-northwest at 9 kt. Estimated minimum central
pressure is 981 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 75 kt with
gusts to 90 kt. Peak seas are around 36 ft. Numerous moderate to
scattered strong convection is noted from 12N to 23N between 
106W and 117W. The WNW motion should continue for the next few 
days. Some strengthening is forecast during the next 48 hours, 
and gradual weakening is anticipated to begin by this weekend. Swells
generated by Marie will affect portions of the coast of 
southwest Mexico and the Baja California Peninsula for the next 
few days and will likely spread northward to southern California 
over the weekend. These swells are likely to cause life- 
threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult 
products from your local weather office.

Please read the latest HIGH SEAS FORECAST issued by the National
Hurricane Center at website - 
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFEP2.shtml and the latest 
Marie NHC Forecast/Advisory and Public Advisory at 
www.hurricanes.gov for more details.
 
...TROPICAL WAVES...

A tropical wave is along 95W, extending across SE Mexico to 06N,
moving westward at 15 kt. Scattered showers and isolated
thunderstorms are found north of 10N and between 87W and 97W.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

The monsoon trough exits the coast of Costa Rica near 09N84W and
extends to 10N95W and to 12N111W and then from 12N119W to
12N133W. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection north
of 01N and east of 83W. Scattered moderate convection is evident
from 03N to 14N and west of 100W.

...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...

Please see the Special Features section for more information on 
Hurricane Marie centered southwest of Baja California, Mexico.

Away from the impacts of Hurricane Marie, the pressure gradient
between a ridge north of the area and the hurricane sustain
moderate to locally strong northerly winds and moderate seas 
across the offshore waters of Baja California, with the strongest
winds occurring off Baja California Norte. Moderate to
occasionally fresh southerly winds and seas of 2-4 ft are noted 
in the northern Gulf of California. Elsewehre, light to gentle winds
and slight to moderate seas are evident in the offshore waters 
of Mexico.

For the forecast, Hurricane Marie is near 18.9N 113.9W at 2 AM
PDT, and is moving west-northwest at 9 kt. Maximum sustained 
winds are 75 kt with gusts to 90 kt, and the minimum central 
pressure is 981 mb. Marie will move to 19.3N 115.1W this 
afternoon, 19.8N 116.6W Fri morning, 20.3N 118.0W Fri afternoon, 
21.0N 119.2W Sat morning, 21.7N 120.3W Sat afternoon, and 22.3N 
121.4W Sun morning. Marie will change little in intensity as it 
moves to the 22.9N 124.2W early Mon. Elsewhere, a tight pressure 
gradient will result in fresh to locally strong S to SE winds in
the N Gulf of California through Fri night. 

...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, 
AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...

A weak pressure gradient extends across the basin supporting moderate
or lighter winds and slight to moderate seas. Strong storms are
occurring south of Guatemala and El Salvador while a few showers
and isolated thunderstorms dot the offshore waters of Panama and
Colombia. Gusty winds and higher seas are likely near these
storms.

For the forecast, a moderate pressure gradient across Central 
America will sustain moderate to locally fresh strong E winds 
over the Gulf of Papagayo through early next week. Moderate to 
locally fresh southerly winds are expected in the waters between 
Ecuador and the Galapagos Islands through Sat. Elsewhere, 
moderate or lighter winds will prevail across forecast waters. 

...REMAINDER OF THE AREA...

Please see the Special Features section for more information
about Hurricane Karina centered over a 1000 miles east of Hawaii,
and Hurricane Marie located southwest of Baja California, Mexico.

Aside from the impacts of Hurricanes Karina and Marie, moderate 
or weaker winds with seas 5-7 ft dominate the tropical NE 
Pacific. Otherwise, a decaying small area of cross equatorial 
swell from the southwest is noted well west of the Galapagos 
Islands producing seas to 8 ft.

For the forecast, Hurricane Karina is near 19.6N 135.7W at 2 AM
PDT, and is moving west-northwest at 10 kt. Maximum sustained 
winds are 105 kt with gusts to 130 kt, and the minimum central 
pressure is 957 mb. Karina will move to 20.0N 137.1W this 
afternoon, 20.4N 138.9W Fri morning, and move west of our 
forecast waters Fri afternoon. Hurricane Marie is near 18.9N 
113.9W at 2 AM PDT, and is moving west-northwest at 9 kt. Maximum
sustained winds are 75 kt with gusts to 90 kt, and the minimum 
central pressure is 981 mb. Marie will move to 19.3N 115.1W this 
afternoon, 19.8N 116.6W Fri morning, 20.3N 118.0W Fri afternoon, 
21.0N 119.2W Sat morning, 21.7N 120.3W Sat afternoon, and 22.3N 
121.4W Sun morning. Marie will change little in intensity as it 
moves to the 22.9N 124.2W early Mon.

Elsewhere, the cross equatorial SW swell will diminish below 8 ft
this morning. Looking ahead, an area of low pressure could form 
well offshore of southwestern Mexico over the weekend or early 
next week. Gradual development is possible, and the system could 
become a tropical depression around the middle of next week while
it moves west-northwestward at 10 to 15 mph, likely remaining 
well offshore of Mexico. This system has a medium chance of
formation in the next 7 days.

$$
Delgado