000
AXPZ20 KNHC 180218
TWDEP 

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0405 UTC Wed Feb 18 2026

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and
from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following
information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations,
radar, and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0100 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Significant Large NW Swell: NW-N swell that was supporting seas
of 12 ft or greater has decayed during the past several hours,
however rough seas of 8 ft or greater remains, covering a large
area from 07N to 30N between 115W and 140W. A new set of
reinforcing northerly swell will push S of 30N overnight, with
seas building again to greater than 12 ft. Seas of 12 ft or
greater will cover the waters from 26N to 30N between Baja
California and 140W by Wed evening while peaking around 15 ft 
near 30N between 120W and 132W, then gradually decaying back 
below 12 ft by Thu evening. Looking ahead, another significant 
and large NW swell event is possible in the NW waters late in the
upcoming weekend into early next week. Please refer to the 
latest NWS High Seas Forecast at website:
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFEP2.shtml for more details.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

A trough extends from 10N85W to 03N92W. The ITCZ extends from
03N92W to 01S110W to 00N120W to beyond 04N140W. Scattered 
moderate convection is noted from 02S to 04N between 106W and
113W, and from 06N to 16N between 130W and 140W.

...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...

A cold front extends from SW Texas to across N-central Mexico to
across the southern Gulf of California where it decays to near
Cabo San Lucas. High pressure is building across the waters in
the wake of and ahead of the front now, and combined with
troughing over inland SW Mexico supports fresh to strong NW-N
winds near Cabo Corrientes. Moderate to fresh winds are offshore
Baja California from near Punta Eugenia southward, and in the
southern Gulf of California. Winds are moderate or weaker
elsewhere. Rough seas of 8 ft or greater are spreading offshore
Baja California from near Cabo San Lazaro northwestward. Seas are
mainly moderate elsewhere, except slight in the majority of the
Gulf of California.

For the forecast, the cold front over the southern Gulf of 
California will dissipate tonight. Fresh to near gale-force W-SW 
winds will develop in the northern Gulf of California by early Wed 
into Wed evening, as a trough develops there, then returning early 
Thu and persisting into early Fri. High pressure will continue build 
in across the area waters in the wake of the front through Fri, 
producing fresh to locally strong northerly winds nearshore Baja 
California through Thu night. Fresh to strong winds near Cabo 
Corrientes will persist into early Wed before diminishing to fresh. 
Fresh winds will dominate the central and southern Gulf of 
California Sat through Sun night due to a locally tight pressure 
gradient. NW swell will continue to build across the waters of Baja 
California through Wed, then become reinforced Wed night through the 
end of the week, decaying during the upcoming weekend. 

Looking ahead, long range model guidance indicates the potential for 
at least a strong gale-force northerly gap wind event in the Gulf of 
Tehuantepec late in the upcoming weekend into early next week, 
although uncertainty exists being so far out in time. Please stay 
tuned as we get closer to this next potential event.

....OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, 
AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...

Fresh to locally strong NE to E offshore winds prevail across 
the Papagayo region, along with 4 to 6 ft seas. Moderate to 
locally fresh northerly winds are occurring across the Gulf of 
Panama and veer NE and pass south of the Azuero Peninsula. Winds 
are light to gentle elsewhere. Seas are mainly 2 to 4 ft 
elsewhere, locally to 5 ft.

For the forecast, fresh to strong NE to E gap winds and moderate
seas will pulse across the Papagayo region as high pressure 
builds across Central America from the north, continuing through 
early Thu, then become moderate to fresh thereafter. Moderate N 
to NE winds will pulse to locally fresh from the Gulf of Panama 
to south of the Azuero Peninsula through Wed. Elsewhere, 
moderate or weaker winds and slight to moderate seas will change 
little through the next several days. 

...REMAINDER OF THE AREA...

Please refer to the Special Features section for more details on
significant NW swell forecast for the northern waters, and for
another possible event late in the upcoming weekend and into
early next week.

A cold front extends from SW Texas to across N-central Mexico to
across the southern Gulf of California where it decays to near 
Cabo San Lucas. Another cold front is analyzed N of the area from
near the San Francisco Bay area offshore. Fresh to strong
associated winds are pushing ahead of the front along with very
rough swells enclosing on 30N. A ridge extends across the waters
from near 30N139W to offshore SW Mexico. Deep layered troughing
has developed near 140W and the W-central waters with active
convection as described above. Associated fresh to strong winds
cover the waters roughly from 09N to 25N between 120W and 140W.
Winds are mainly moderate or weaker across the remainder of the
waters. For seas, rough seas cover the waters from 07N to 30N
between 115W and 140W. Very rough seas are from 13N to 21N
between 136W and 140W near the troughing.

For the forecast, high pressure will build in the wake of the
cold front dissipating over the southern Gulf of California while 
the deep layered troughing persists in the W-central waters near
140W. This scenario will support a broad area of fresh to near 
gale-force trades N of the ITCZ to near 24N and W of 130W 
through early Fri, along with rough to very rough seas. Expect 
active showers and thunderstorms to accompany these increasing 
trades. Marine conditions should improve by the end of the week 
and into the weekend as the disturbance dissipates and the 
pressure gradient weakens.

$$
Lewitsky