000
AXPZ20 KNHC 182124
TWDEP

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
2205 UTC Wed Feb 18 2026

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and
from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following
information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations,
radar, and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2100 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Significant Large NW Swell: New large and significant swell with
seas of 12 ft or greater is just N of 28N and propagating 
southward, while rough seas cover a large area ahead of it, 
across the waters N of 07.5N and W of 113W. Seas of 12 ft or 
greater will cover the waters from 26N to 30N between Baja 
California and 140W by tonight while peaking around 15 ft near 
30N between 120W and 130W, then gradually decaying back below 12 
ft by Thu evening. Looking ahead, another significant and large 
NW swell event is possible in the NW waters late in the upcoming 
weekend into early next week. Please refer to the latest NWS High
Seas Forecast at website:
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFEP2.shtml for more details.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

The ITCZ extends from 04N95W to 01S120W to 01S137W. Scattered 
moderate convection is noted from 02N to 06.5N between 88W and 
95W.

...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...

High pressure centered NW of the area extends a ridge from NW to
SE across the offshore waters. A locally tight pressure gradient
between the ridging and troughing over Mexico supports moderate 
to fresh NW-N winds across nearshore Baja California. While fresh
to near-gale SW winds prevail over the northern Gulf of 
California based on the latest ASCAT pass. Seas are 6 to 11 ft 
over the offshore waters of Baja California, except for 2 to 5 
ft over the central and southern Gulf of California. Elsewhere, 
light to gentle variable winds prevail with seas 2 to 5 ft. 

For the forecast, high pressure will continue build in across 
the waters through Fri, producing fresh to locally strong 
northerly winds nearshore Baja California through Thu night.  
Strong to near-gale force SW wind over the northern Gulf of 
California will prevail through late tonight. Then, fresh to
strong SW winds will return over the northern Gulf on Fri. Fresh
winds will dominate the central and southern Gulf of California 
Sat through Sun night due to a locally tight pressure gradient. 
NW swell will continue to build across the waters of Baja 
California this afternoon, then become reinforced tonight 
through the end of the week, decaying during the upcoming 
weekend. 

Looking ahead, long range model guidance indicates the potential for 
at least a strong gale-force northerly gap wind event in the Gulf of 
Tehuantepec late in the upcoming weekend into early next week, 
although uncertainty exists being so far out in time. Please stay 
tuned as we get closer to this next potential event.

....OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, 
AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...

Fresh to locally strong NE to E offshore winds prevail across 
the Papagayo region, along with 4 to 7 ft seas. Moderate to 
locally fresh northerly winds are occurring across the Gulf of 
Panama and veer NE and pass south of the Azuero Peninsula, along
with 3 to 5 ft seas. Winds are light to gentle elsewhere, with
seas 2 to 4 ft.

For the forecast, fresh to strong NE to E gap winds and moderate
seas will pulse across the Papagayo region as high pressure 
builds across Central America from the north, continuing through 
Thu night, then become moderate to fresh thereafter. Fresh to 
near-gale winds may return there late in the weekend into early 
next week. Moderate N to NE winds will pulse to locally fresh 
from the Gulf of Panama to south of the Azuero Peninsula through 
the afternoon. Elsewhere, moderate or weaker winds and slight to
moderate seas will change little through the next several days. 

...REMAINDER OF THE AREA...

Please refer to the Special Features section for more details on
significant NW swell forecast for the northern waters, and for
another possible event late in the upcoming weekend and into
early next week.

A weakening cold front extends from 30N119W to 30N128W. Moderate
to fresh NW winds follow the front according to the latest ASCAT
pass. Very rough swells enclosing on 28N are ahead of the front.
A ridge extends across the waters from near 26N132W to offshore 
SW Mexico. Deep layered troughing prevails near 135W and the 
W-central waters with scattered moderate convection from 15N to 
28N between 132W and 140W. Associated fresh to near gale-force 
winds cover the waters roughly from 12N to 24.5N between 124W and
140W. Winds are mainly moderate or weaker across the remainder 
of the waters. For seas, rough seas cover the waters from 07N to 
27N between 112W and 140W. Very rough seas are from 11N to 21N 
between 130W and 140W near the troughing.

For the forecast, high pressure will build across the waters N of
the ITCZ while the deep layered troughing persists in the 
W-central waters near 140W. This scenario will support a broad 
area of fresh to near gale-force trades N of the ITCZ to near 
24N and W of 130W through early Fri, along with rough to very 
rough seas. Expect active showers and thunderstorms to accompany 
these increasing trades. Marine conditions should improve by the 
end of the week and into the weekend as the disturbance 
dissipates and the pressure gradient weakens. New, large and
significant swells may move into the NW waters by the end of the
weekend and into early next week.

$$
KRV