667 
AXPZ20 KNHC 190734
TWDEP 

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1005 UTC Thu Feb 19 2026

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and
from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following
information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations,
radar, and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0700 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Significant Large NW Swell: Large and significant NW-N swell 
with seas of 12 ft or greater is N of 25N between 117W and 136W, 
while rough seas cover a large area ahead of it, across most of 
the waters N of 05N and W of 110W. Seas are peaking around 14 ft
along 30N between 119W and 128W. These seas will gradually decay
below 12 ft this afternoon. Looking ahead, another significant 
and large NW swell event is possible in the NW waters late in the
upcoming weekend into early next week. Please refer to the 
latest NWS High Seas Forecast at website:
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFEP2.shtml for more details.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

A trough extends from 10N85W to 00N108W. The ITCZ extends from
00N108W to 00N120W to 00N130W to beyond 02N140W. Scattered 
moderate isolated strong convection is noted from 02N to 08N 
between 84W and 106W.

...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...

The tail end of a cold front is over far NW mainland Mexico near
31N111W to across the northern Gulf of California and Baja
California Norte near 28N118W. Otherwise, high pressure centered
NW of the area extends a ridge from NW to SE across the offshore
waters. A locally tight pressure gradient between the ridging 
and troughing over Mexico supports fresh to locally strong NW-N 
winds across nearshore Baja California. Moderate to fresh 
northerly winds are elsewhere N of 18N, with moderate or weaker
winds across the remainder of the waters. Rough seas of 8 to 10 
ft in old, decaying NW swell is found offshore Baja California 
Sur, with newer NW swell of 8 to 13 ft moving in across the 
waters off Baja California Norte. Mainly moderate seas are across
the remainder of the waters, except slight in the central and 
southern Gulf of California, as well as offshore southern Mexico.

For the forecast, high pressure will continue to build in across
the waters through the end of the week, producing fresh to 
locally strong northerly winds nearshore Baja California through 
Fri. Strong to near-gale force SW wind over the northern Gulf of
California will develop over the northern Gulf of Baja 
California tonight into Fri. Fresh winds will dominate the 
central and southern Gulf of California through early today, 
then again Sat through early Mon due to a locally tight pressure 
gradient when they may pulse to strong. New NW swell will 
continue to build across the waters off Baja California today 
through the end of the week, decaying during the upcoming 
weekend. 

Looking ahead, model guidance indicates the potential for at 
least a strong gale-force northerly gap wind event in the Gulf of
Tehuantepec late in the upcoming weekend into early next week as
a potent cold front moves by to the N in the Gulf of America. 
Winds may have the potential to reach minimal storm force Mon 
night. Very large seas are likely to accompany this gap wind 
event, propagating well away from the source region. Please stay
tuned as we get closer to this next potential event.

....OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, 
AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...

Fresh to locally strong NE to E offshore winds prevail across 
the Papagayo region, along with 4 to 6 ft seas. Moderate to 
locally fresh northerly winds are occurring across the Gulf of 
Panama and veer NE and pass south of the Azuero Peninsula. Winds
are light to gentle elsewhere, with seas 2 to 4 ft. Some active
convection is present offshore of Costa Rica as described 
above.

For the forecast, fresh to strong NE to E gap winds and moderate
seas will persist across the Papagayo region through the morning 
as high pressure builds across Central America from the north,
with winds becoming moderate to fresh thereafter. Fresh to near-
gale force winds may develop there late in the weekend into 
early next week as stronger high pressure builds down. Moderate 
N to NE winds will pulse to locally fresh from the Gulf of Panama
to south of the Azuero Peninsula through the early morning, 
returning early next week. A significant gap wind event in the 
Gulf of Tehuantepec will send outer fresh to strong winds and 
rough to very rough seas into the far offshore waters of 
Guatemala by early next week. Elsewhere, moderate or weaker winds
and slight to moderate seas will change little through the next 
several days. 

...REMAINDER OF THE AREA...

Please refer to the Special Features section for more details on
significant NW swell forecast for the northern waters, and for
another possible event late in the upcoming weekend and into
early next week.

A weakening cold front is moving over far NW mainland Mexico to
offshore Baja California Norte. Moderate to fresh NW winds 
follow the front, mainly over the Baja California offshore waters.
Very rough swells are behind the front as described above. A 
ridge extends across the waters from near 30N140W to offshore SW 
Mexico. Deep layered troughing prevails just W of 140W to the 
W-central waters with scattered moderate convection from 13N to 
30N between 125W and 140W. Associated fresh to near gale-force 
winds cover the waters roughly from 08N to 22N mainly between 
115W and 140W. Winds are mainly moderate or weaker across the 
remainder of the waters. For seas, rough seas cover most of the 
waters from 05N to 30N between 110W and 140W. Very rough seas 
are from 12N to 22N between 132W and 140W, with moderate seas 
across the remainder of the open waters.

For the forecast, high pressure will build across the waters
N of the ITCZ while the deep layered troughing persists in the 
W-central waters near or just W of 140W. This scenario will 
support a broad area of fresh to near gale-force trades N of the 
ITCZ to near 24N and W of 130W through early Fri morning, along 
with rough to very rough seas. Expect active showers and 
thunderstorms to continue to accompany these trades. Marine 
conditions should improve by the end of the week and into the 
weekend as the disturbance dissipates and the pressure gradient 
weakens. New, large and significant swells may move into the NW 
waters by the end of the weekend and into early next week.

$$
Lewitsky