000
AXPZ20 KNHC 140255
TWDEP 

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0405 UTC Wed May 14 2025

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and
from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following
information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations,
radar, and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0230 UTC.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

The monsoon trough extends from 08N78W to 10N100W to 09N115W. 
The ITCZ continues from 09N115W to beyond 06N140W. Numerous 
moderate to isolated strong convection is active from 06N to 10N
between 80W and 105W.

...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...

The weak cold front that was moving into Baja California Norte has
dissipated. A surface ridge extends from from 1036 mb high 
pressure near 40N140W southeastward to the Revillagigedo Islands.
Mostly moderate NW winds are likely off Baja California, and
along the coast of southern Mexico between Manzanillo and Puerto
Angel. NW swell up to 7 ft is west of Guadalupe Island. Wave
heights are 3-5 ft elsewhere over open waters. Gentle breezes 
persist over the Gulf of California, with 1-3 ft. 

For the forecast, the current pattern will freshen winds west of
the Baja California peninsula and off the coasts of Jalisco and 
Colima through Wed night, with large NW swell west of the Baja 
peninsula into Fri. Moderate or weaker winds and moderate seas, 
primarily in SW swell, will prevail elsewhere.

...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, 
AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...

Moderate to fresh winds, and seas of 5-6 ft are over and 
downstream the Gulf of Papagayo. Gentle to moderate winds, and 
seas of 5-6 ft are between Ecuador and the Galapagos Islands. 
Gentle winds, and seas of 4-5 ft, prevail elsewhere. 

For the forecast, strong gap winds across the Papagayo region 
will diminish to moderate to fresh speeds through Fri, then 
dimnish further Sat. Gentle to moderate winds will persist 
elsewhere. Expect moderate to rough seas in long period SW swell 
between Ecuador and the Galapagos Islands Wed and Thu. Slight to 
moderate seas, primarily in SW swell, will prevail elsewhere. 

...REMAINDER OF THE AREA....

A ridge prevails the waters north of 20N and west of 110W. The 
pressure gradient between the ridge and lower pressure in the 
vicinity of the ITCZ is supporting moderate trade winds north of
the ITCZ and west of 120W. NW swell has increase seas to 8 ft 
over the waters N of 28N and W of 125W. Elsewhere seas north of 
the ITCZ are in the 6-7 ft range. Gentle to locally moderate 
winds and seas of 5-6 ft are noted elsewhere in a mix of swell. 

For the forecast, the pressure gradient between high pressure 
over the waters north of 20N and low pressure in the vicinity of
the ITCZ will support moderate to fresh NE winds north of the 
ITCZ and west of 120W through mid week. Seas in the 8 to 9 ft 
range in NW swell will move across the waters north of 25N and 
west of 120W through mid week, and combine with seas from trade 
winds from 10N to 20N west of 130W through the latter part of the
week.

$$
Christensen