000
AXPZ20 KNHC 020357
TWDEP

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0405 UTC Wed Sep 2 2026

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and
from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following
information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations,
radar, and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0350 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Hurricane Karina is centered near 18.3N 130.8W at 02/0300 UTC,
moving west at 10 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 946
mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 120 kt with gusts to 145 kt.
Peak seas are around 29 ft. Numerous moderate to scattered 
strong convection is noted from 16N to 22N between 128W and 
133W. Karina is a category 4 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson 
Hurricane Wind Scale. Gradual weakening is expected during the 
next several days.

Tropical Storm Marie is centered near 16.1N 110.3W at 02/0300
UTC, moving northwest at 8 kt. Estimated minimum central
pressure is 994 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 55 kt with
gusts to 65 kt. Peak seas are around 18 ft. Numerous moderate to
scattered strong convection is noted from 04N to 20N between 
102W and 116W. Additional strengthening is expected during the 
next few days, and Marie is expected to become a hurricane on 
Wednesday. Swells generated by Marie will affect portions of the coast
of southwest Mexico and the Baja California Peninsula for the next
few days and will likely spread northward to southern California
over the weekend.  These swells are likely to cause
life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult
products from your local weather office. 

Please read the latest HIGH SEAS FORECAST issued by the National
Hurricane Center at website - 
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFEP2.shtml and the latest NHC 
Tropical Weather Outlook at www.hurricanes.gov for more details.
 
...TROPICAL WAVES...

A tropical wave is along 88W, extending across Central America 
to 04N, moving westward at 15 kt. Scattered moderate convection 
is occurring north of 04N and E of 91W. 

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

The monsoon trough extends from 10N85W to 08N96W to 12N105W. 
Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is present from 
02N to 11N and W of 117W.

...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...

Please see the Special Features section for more information on 
Tropical Storm Marie centered SW of Mexico.

Tropical Storm Marie is near 16.1N 110.3W at 8 PM PDT, and is
moving northwest at 8 kt. Maximum sustained winds are 55 kt with
gusts to 65 kt, and the minimum central pressure is 994 mb. Aside
from the impacts of Tropical Storm Marie, a weak pressure 
gradient across the offshore waters of Baja California sustains 
moderate or weaker winds and moderate seas. A slightly tighter
pressure gradient in the northern Gulf of California is allowing
for locally fresh southerly winds and slight seas. Elsewhere, 
light to gentle winds and slight to moderate seas prevail.

For the forecast, Marie will strengthen to a hurricane near 
16.9N 111.4W Wed morning, move to 17.9N 112.8W Wed evening, 18.7N
114.3W Thu morning, 19.4N 115.9W Thu evening, 19.8N 117.3W Fri 
morning, and 20.5N 118.8W Fri evening. Marie will change little 
in intensity as it moves near 21.8N 121.3W late Sat. Elsewhere,
a tighter pressure gradient will result in fresh to locally 
strong southerly winds and moderate seas in the northern Gulf of 
California tonight into Fri night.

...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, 
AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...

High pressure north of the area supports moderate to locally fresh
easterly winds and moderate seas in the Gulf of Papagayo region,
extending outward to 88W. Moderate or weaker winds and slight to
moderate seas prevail elsewhere.

For the forecast, the subtropical ridge north of the Caribbean
will sustain moderate to fresh easterly trade winds and moderate
seas across the Gulf of Papagayo through the workweek. Winds may
pulse to strong speeds at night late this week into the upcoming
weekend. Elsewhere, moderate or lighter winds and slight to 
moderate seas will prevail.

...REMAINDER OF THE AREA...

Please see the Special Features section for more information
about Hurricane Karina centered between Mexico and Hawaii, and 
Tropical Storm Marie located southwest of Mexico.

Tropical Storm Marie is near 16.1N 110.3W at 8 PM PDT, and is
moving northwest at 8 kt. Maximum sustained winds are 55 kt with
gusts to 65 kt, and the minimum central pressure is 994 mb. 
Hurricane Karina is near 18.3N 130.8W at 8 PM PDT, and is moving 
west at 10 kt. Maximum sustained winds are 120 kt with gusts to 
145 kt, and the minimum central pressure is 946 mb. Aside from 
the impacts of Hurricane Karina and Tropical Storm Marie, 
moderate or weaker winds and moderate seas dominate the tropical 
eastern Pacific. Otherwise, a small area of cross equatorial 
swell is noted south of the equator producing seas to 8 ft.

For the forecast, Marie will strengthen to a hurricane near 
16.9N 111.4W Wed morning, move to 17.9N 112.8W Wed evening, 18.7N
114.3W Thu morning, 19.4N 115.9W Thu evening, 19.8N 117.3W Fri 
morning, and 20.5N 118.8W Fri evening. Marie will change little 
in intensity as it moves near 21.8N 121.3W late Sat. Karina will
move to 18.7N 132.3W Wed morning, 19.1N 134.2W Wed evening, 
19.5N 136.1W Thu morning, 19.9N 138.0W Thu evening, 20.2N 139.8W 
Fri morning, and 20.7N 141.6W Fri evening. Karina will change 
little in intensity as it moves near 22.3N 144.3W late Sat. 

Elsewhere, the cross equatorial swell will remain south of 02N 
over the next few days, producing seas to 9 ft before subsiding 
late this week.

$$
Ramos