316 
AXPZ20 KNHC 262133
TWDEP 

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
2205 UTC Mon Jan 26 2026

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and
from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following
information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations,
radar, and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2100 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Gulf of Tehuantepec Storm Warning: Gale force winds are blowing
across the Tehunatepec region based on the 1556Z ASCAT pass.
Fresh to strong winds are noted downwind of the Tehuantepec area
to about 14N. Winds will further increase to minimal storm force
this evening, with seas building to around 22 ft tonight into 
Tue morning. At that time, gusty winds to near hurricane force 
may occur. Large seas generated from this strong gap wind event 
will spread well away from the Tehuantepec area, with seas 12 ft 
or greater reaching as far south as 10N by Tue morning. Marine 
interests transiting across or in the Gulf of Tehuantepec tonight
and Tue should be aware of this very strong gap wind event, and 
take the necessary action to avoid this hazardous marine conditions
over the affected waters. Winds are forecast to diminish below 
storm-force by late Tue morning but strong gale-force winds of 
40 to 45 kt will persist. Gale conditions are then forecast to 
continue through Thu morning. Seas generated from this gap wind 
event will continue to propagate well away of the Tehuantepec 
region over the next 48 hours, with the plume of seas in excess 
of 8 ft covering the waters from 04N to 15N between between 92W 
and 108W. These seas will combine with long period NW swell 
reaching the area on Wed. 

Please read the latest High Seas Forecast issued by the National
Hurricane Center at 
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFEP2.shtml for more details
on this event.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

The monsoon trough extends from 09N84W to 06N94W. The ITCZ 
continues from 06N94W to 04N112W to 07N130W to beyond 07N140W. 
Scattered moderate convection is noted from 07N to 10N between 
128W and 137W.

...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...

A ridge dominates the offshore forecast waters of Baja California
supporting gentle to moderate easterly winds N of Punta Eugenia 
due to the presence of a 1026 mb high pressure located offshore 
southern California. Light to gentle winds are noted across the
remainder of the Baja California offshore waters. Seas are
moderate within these winds. In the Gulf of California, the most
recent scatterometer data show moderate to locally fresh NW 
winds along the entire Gulf, with seas of 1 to 3 ft, except 3 to
4 ft toward the entrance to the Gulf. Moderate to fresh N to NW 
winds are also offshore Jalisco, including Cabo Corrientes where
seas are 4 to 6 ft. In the Gulf of Tehuantepec, a strong gap 
wind event is ongoing with N winds of 30 to 40 kt and rough seas.
Moderate or weaker winds and slight to moderate seas in NW swell
dominate the remainder of the Mexican offshore forecast waters.

For the forecast, a very strong gap wind event is expected to 
continue in the Tehuantepec region reaching storm-force by this
evening. Very rough seas will be associated with these wind 
speeds. Please, see the Special Features section for more 
information on this event. Otherwise, moderate to fresh NW winds 
are expected in the Gulf of California through Fri, particularly 
across the central part of the Gulf, as a high pressure system 
settles over the SW of the United States.

....OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, 
AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...

Moderate to fresh NE to E winds are observed across the Papagayo
region and downwind to about 88W. Seas are 3 to 4 ft within 
these winds. Moderate N winds and slight to moderate seas prevail
in the Gulf of Panama and downwind to about 05N. Elsewhere, 
light to gentle winds are noted, with moderate seas in mixed SW 
and NW swell. 

For the forecast, winds are forecast to increase again to 20 to 
25 kt across the Papagayo region by tonight into Tue morning as 
high pressure builds N of area in the wake of a cold front moving
across the NW Caribbean. These winds will reach near gale force,
mainly at night Tue through Thu, with seas building to around 10
ft. Moderate to locally fresh N winds will continue to pulse in 
the Gulf of Panama through Thu night. Elsewhere, winds will be 
moderate or weaker through Sat. Seas generated by a very strong 
gap wind event in the Tehuantepec region will propagate across 
the offshore forecast waters of Guatemala and El Salvador 
beginning this evening. The highest seas, in the 12 to 18 ft range 
in NW swell, are expected on Tue. Rough seas are forecsat to persist 
through Thu as seas generated in the Papagayo area will also reach 
the Guatemala and El Salvador outer offshore waters.

...REMAINDER OF THE AREA...

A ridge, anchored on a 1026 mb high pressure located offshore
southern California, dominates the N waters, mainly N of 15N
between 110W and 130W. The pressure gradient between the ridge 
and lower pressure in the vicinity of the ITCZ supports an area 
of moderate to locally fresh trades N of the ITCZ to about 18N 
and W of 110W. Seas are 5 to 7 ft within these winds per recent 
altimeter data. A cold front is reaching the NW corner of the
forecast region. Fresh to strong SW winds are ahead of the 
front based on scatterometer data. A surface trough stretches  
from from 17N123W to 08N128W. Some convective activity is near 
the trough axis enhanced by a diffluent pattern aloft. Elsewhere,
winds are moderate or weaker and seas are moderate in mixed NE 
wind wave and long period NW swell.

For the forecast, the aforementioned high pressure will remain
nearly stationary over the next 24 hours. The cold front will 
extend from 30N138W to 27N140W by this evening, and from 30N134W 
to 25N140W by Tue morning, then will dissipate on Wed. Afterward, 
high pressure will build in the wake of the front. Fresh to strong
winds are expected ahead and behind the front by tonight, then 
winds will diminish 10 to 15 kt on Tue. Rough seas, in the wake 
of the front, will propagate across the forecast waters covering 
a large area, NW of a line from 30N128W to 19N140W, by Wed. The
surface trough will move westward over the next couple of days.

$$
GR