571 
AXPZ20 KNHC 151547
TWDEP 

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1605 UTC Thu May 15 2025

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and
from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following
information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations,
radar, and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1500 UTC.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

The monsoon trough extends from a 1009 mb low pressure located
over northern Colombia near 10N75W to another 1010 mb low 
pressure situated near 09N99W to 08N120W. The ITCZ continues 
from 08N120W to beyond 07N140W. Scattered moderate to isolated 
strong convection is active from 03N to 07N between the coast of
Colombia and 95W, and from 04N to 10N between 95W and 117W. 

...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...

A ridge extends from 1032 mb high pressure located near 35N140W 
southeastward to the Revillagigedo Islands, while low pressure 
prevails over Mexico. The most recent scatterometer satellite 
passes indicated the pressure gradient between these features is 
supporting moderate to fresh NW winds off the Baja California 
peninsula, and fresh to strong NW winds off the coasts of Jalisco
and Colima. Gentle to moderate winds are elsewhere over the 
discussion waters, including in the Gulf of California. 
Altimeter data confirmed seas are in the 8 to 9 ft range off 
Baja California north of Cabo San Lazaro, and 5 to 7 ft 
elsewhere off Baja California Sur. Seas of 4 to 6 ft are 
elsewhere over the open waters off Mexico. Seas are 3 ft or less 
over the Gulf of California.

For the forecast, the weather pattern will support fresh winds 
west of the Baja California peninsula and off the coasts of 
Jalisco and Colima through late today, with large NW swell west 
of the Baja peninsula into Fri. Moderate or weaker winds and 
moderate seas, primarily in SW swell, will prevail elsewhere. A 
trough will move into Baja California and the northern Gulf of 
California Sat and Sat night, followed by rough seas in NW swell 
Sun and Mon west of Baja California Norte. Strong SW gap winds 
and rough seas are possible late Sat over the northern Gulf of 
California ahead of the trough. Looking ahead, fresh NW winds and
large swell will follow the trough and move into the waters off 
Baja California north of Cabo San Lazaro Sun through Mon night. 

...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, 
AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...

Latest scatterometer satellite pass confirmed moderate to locally
fresh winds are over and downstream the Gulf of Papagayo. Light 
to gentle winds are elsewhere north of the monsoon trough. Gentle
to moderate winds are south of the monsoon trough. Seas are in 
the 5 to 7 ft range between Ecuador and the Galapagos Islands, 
reaching 8 ft south of the Galapagos Islands. Elsewhere, seas are
in the 4 to 5 ft range.

For the forecast, scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms 
will persist over the offshore waters off Central America through
at least Sat. Gentle to moderate winds will prevail across the 
region through Sat, then diminish through Mon. Expect moderate to
rough seas in long period SW swell between Ecuador and the 
Galapagos Islands today. Slight to moderate seas, primarily in 
SW swell, will prevail elsewhere. 

...REMAINDER OF THE AREA....

A ridge prevails over the waters north of the ITCZ and west of 
110W. The pressure gradient between the ridge and lower pressure 
in the vicinity of the ITCZ is supporting moderate to locally
fresh trade winds north of the ITCZ and west of 120W. Based on 
altimeter data, an area of 8 to 10 ft seas is noted W of a line 
from 27N140W to 20N128W to 16N140W due to mixed NE and NW swell.
Gentle to locally moderate winds and seas of 5 to 6 ft are noted
elsewhere in a mix of swell. 

For the forecast, the pressure gradient between high pressure 
over the north waters and low pressure in the vicinity of the 
ITCZ will support moderate to fresh NE winds north of the ITCZ 
and west of 120W through early next week. The NW swell will 
combine with seas from trade winds from 10N to 20N west of 130W 
through the latter part of the week. Looking ahead, N swell will 
cover most of the area north of 20N early next week.

$$
GR