984 
AXPZ20 KNHC 061026
TWDEP 

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1005 UTC Sat Jun 6 2026

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and
from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following
information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations,
radar, and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0930 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Tropical Storm Amanda is centered near 12.7N 134.7W at 06/0900 
UTC, moving southwest at 4 kt, and this general motion is 
expected to continue through the weekend. Estimated minimum 
central pressure is 1006 mb. Maximum sustained winds are 35 kt 
with gusts to 45 kt. Peak seas are currently around 4 m, or 12 
ft, within 30 nm across the western semicircle. A cluster of 
moderate to isolated strong convection remains confined primarily
to the western semicircle, with the low-level circulation center
located beneath the eastern edge of the deep convection. Gradual
weakening is forecast on Saturday, and Amanda is expected to 
degenerate into a remnant low on Sunday.

Please read the latest HIGH SEAS FORECAST issued by the National 
Hurricane Center at website - 
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFEP2.shtml and the latest 
Amanda NHC Forecast/Advisory and Public Advisory at 
www.hurricanes.gov for more details.

Offshore Southern and Southwestern Mexico (EP91):
A broad area of low pressure is located along the monsoon trough,
a few hundred miles southwest of Zihuatanejo, Mexico.
Environmental conditions appear conducive for gradual development
of this system while it moves slowly northward toward the coast
of southwestern Mexico, and a tropical depression could form
later this weekend or early next week. The disturbance is
forecast to move northeastward and then northward near the coast
of Oaxaca and Guerrero States in Mexico during the next few days.
Interests in southwestern Mexico should monitor the progress of
this system. Regardless of development, locally heavy rainfall is
possible across southern Mexico through early next week.
Currently, this system has a high chance of tropical cyclone 
formation in next 2 to 7 days. Refer to the latest NHC Tropical 
Weather Outlook at www.hurricanes.gov for more details.

Offshore of Central America:
A trough of low pressure is currently offshore of Central 
America, producing sporadic heavy showers and isolated strong 
thunderstorms across the regional offshore waters. Environmental 
conditions appear conducive for gradual development of this 
system while it moves slowly northward toward the coast of 
Central America, and a tropical depression could form later this 
weekend or early next week. The disturbance is forecast to move 
northward and then northwestward near the coast of Guatemala and 
southern Mexico during the next few days. Interests in southern 
Mexico and Guatemala should monitor the progress of this system. 
Regardless of development, locally heavy rainfall is possible 
across portions of Central America and southern Mexico through 
early next week. Currently, this system has a medium chance of 
tropical cyclone formation in next 2 to 7 days.. Refer to the 
latest NHC Tropical Weather Outlook at www.hurricanes.gov for 
more details.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

A monsoon trough extends west-northwestward the coastal border of
Nicaragua and Costa Rica from 11N86W to a 1009 mb low (EP91) 
located near 14N104W, then turns southwestward to 07N135W. An
ITCZ continues westward from 07N135W to beyond 140W at 06N. 
Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection can be found 
from 01N to the coast of Central America E of 90W, and from 07N 
to the coast of southern Mexico between 91W and 105W. Widely 
scattered moderate convection is noted from 05N to 11N west of 
105W. 

...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...

A ridge, anchored by a 1030 mb high pressure center located north
of the Hawaiian Islands near 36N152W, extends southeastward 
across the offshore forecast waters of Baja California. This 
pattern is producing gentle to moderate NW to N winds across the 
waters N of Cabo San Lazaro, and moderate to locally fresh NW to N
winds S of Cabo San Lazaro. Winds increase to fresh to strong 
speeds in the vicinity of Cabo San Lucas where an altimeter pass 
indicates seas of 6 to 9 ft. Seas are 5 to 7 ft in mixed NW and SW
swell across the remainder of the Baja California waters, except 
7 to 9 ft in the outer waters N of Punta Eugenia. Inside the Gulf 
of California, gentle to locally moderate S winds generally 
prevail, with seas of 1 to 3 ft across the Gulf, except 3 to 5 ft 
in SW swell across the entrance of the Gulf. Across the remainder 
of the Mexican offshore waters, light to gentle winds dominate, 
with seas of 6 to 8 ft, primarily in SW swell. 

For the forecast, a broad surface ridge near 130W will sustain 
moderate to fresh NW to N winds near Baja Norte and Cabo San 
Lucas through Tue evening. Fresh to locally strong S to SW winds 
are expected in the northern Gulf of California until Sun night. 
A combination of NW and S swells will prolong moderate to rough 
seas west of Baja Norte into midweek next week, and near Baja Sur
and the Revillagigedo Islands Mon through Wed. The low pressure
(EP91) along the monsoon trough mentioned in the Special 
Features section will strengthen monsoonal SW to W winds across 
the offshore waters of southern Mexico by late Sun or early Mon. 
These winds could reach strong to near-gale force along with 
very rough seas in large SW swell.

....OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA,
AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...

Disorganized showers and thunderstorms located offshore of Central
America are associated with a trough of low pressure. Please, see
the Special Features section for more details.

A weak surface pressure pattern dominates the region. Latest
scatterometer data indicate that a weak low pressure center is 
beginning to develop along 92W. Gentle to locally moderate winds
are associated with this weak low pressure. Moderate to locally
fresh S to SW winds prevail S of the monsoon trough. Seas of 5 to
7 ft, in long period SW swell, dominate the offshore forecast
waters, except 7 to 8 t SW of the Galapagos Islands. 

For the forecast, a persistent long-period SW swell across the 
region will gradually build over the next several days. As a 
result, moderate seas will becoming rough by Sun, and then very 
rough in the offshore waters of Central America by late Sun or 
early Mon. Convergent monsoonal winds are going to keep sporadic 
heavy showers and strong thunderstorms across the regional 
offshore waters at least into early next week. A trough of low
south of Guatemala mentioned in the Special Features section 
will strengthen monsoonal SW to W winds across the offshore 
waters of Central America by Sun evening. These winds could reach
strong to near-gale force early next week. 

...REMAINDER OF THE AREA...

Please see the Special Features section for information on Tropical
Storm Amanda located well SW of Baja California Sur.

High pressure of 1030 mb located north of the Hawaiian Islands 
near 36N152W, dominates the waters N of 15N and W of 115W, 
extending southeastward to S of the Revillagigedo Islands. The 
pressure gradient between the ridge and T.S. Amanda is promoting 
moderate to fresh NE to E winds across the waters N of 12N and W 
of 130W. Seas over these waters and elsewhere N of 10N are in the 
7 to 10 ft range in a mix of trade wind waves and NW to N swell. 
Moderate to fresh N to NE winds prevail N of 27N between 125W and
135W, where seas are 6 to 9 ft in N to NE swell and near 10 ft 
along 30N. Mainly gentle winds are S of the monsoon trough and W 
of 115W, with moderate to locally fresh winds S of the monsoon 
trough and E of 115W. Seas are 5 to 7 ft S of 10N and W of 115W, 
and 7 to 9 ft in mainly S to SW swell elsewhere.

For the forecast, Tropical Storm Amanda will move to 12.7N 134.6W 
Sat morning, weaken to a tropical depression near 12.2N 135.2W 
Sat evening, 11.8N 135.5W Sun morning, become a remnant low and 
move to 11.4N 136.1W Sun evening, 11.0N 137.0W Mon morning, and 
10.7N 138.0W Mon evening. Amanda will change little in intensity 
as it moves to near 10.4N 139.8W late Tue. Meanwhile, the high 
pressure NW of the area will drift W and weaken slightly across 
the area through Mon as Tropical Storm Amanda tracks SW over the 
western portion of the area, resulting in gradually diminishing 
winds across the trade wind zone. Little change is expected 
elsewhere through Sat morning, before large S to SW reaches the 
equator and moves through the regional waters through early next 
week, reaching to 20N Sun night through Mon. Northerly swell in 
the N-central waters with seas of 7 to 10 ft will linger for the 
next several days.

Looking ahead, monsoonal southerly winds are forecast to increase
to at least fresh to strong speeds E of 110W this weekend into 
early next week with possible tropical cyclone formation off both 
southern Mexico and off portions of Central America.

$$

Chan