000
AXPZ20 KNHC 312021
TWDEP 

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
2205 UTC Wed Dec 31 2025

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and
from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following
information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations,
radar, and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2000 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Gulf of Tehuantepec Gale Warning: Gale-force winds of 35 to 40 kt
and seas of 12 to 14 ft will prevail into Thu morning as high
pressure settles into eastern Mexico and force gap winds into the
Gulf of Tehuantepec. As the high weakens and slides east Thu into
Fri, winds will gradually diminish. Marine interests transiting 
across or near the Gulf of Tehuantepec through Wed should take 
the necessary action to avoid these hazardous marine conditions. 
Please read the latest High Seas Forecast issued by the National 
Hurricane Center at website:
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFEP2.shtml for more information.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

The monsoon trough extends from 08N81W to 05N94W. The ITCZ 
stretches from 05N94W to 13N122W to beyond 06N140W. Convection N
of the ITCZ roughly along 110W is primarily associated with
middle-level features and is described in sections below. 

...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...

A Gale Warning is in effect for the Gulf of Tehuantepec. Please 
refer to the Special Features section for details. 

A mid-level trough and deep tropical moisture is inducing
scattered moderate to isolated convection over the outer 
offshore waters from Guerrero northward to Nayarit, mainly W of
107W. Low pressure offshore California is drawing in fresh SE
winds that are impacting waters offshore Baja California Norte.
Fresh NW winds have also developed offshore Cabo Corrientes. 
Elsewhere, winds are moderate or weaker, and seas are moderate. 
In the Gulf of California, moderate N winds and slight seas 
prevail. 

For the forecast, Fresh SE winds across the Baja California 
offshore waters N of Punta Eugenia will diminish tonight as a 
low pressure N of the offshores moves northward, further way from
the region. Otherwise, long period NW swell may bring rough seas
to waters offshore Baja California Sat night through early next 
week.

...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, 
AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...

High pressure building N of the region is supporting strong 
northeast to east winds in the Papagayo region. Seas of 6 to 8 
ft are within these winds. Elsewhere, mainly gentle winds and 
slight to moderate seas prevail, except for moderate to fresh N
winds in the Gulf of Panama.

For the forecast, high pressure N of the area will continue to 
support strong NE to E winds in the Gulf of Papagayo with 
moderate to rough seas into Fri. Winds will pulse to fresh in 
the Gulf of Panama tonight and Thu night. Rough seas generated by
gales in the Tehuantepec region will propagate across the 
offshore forecast waters of Guatemala and El Salvador tonight. 
Mainly gentle winds and slight to moderate seas are expected 
elsewhere into the start of next week. 

...REMAINDER OF THE AREA...

A 1009 mb low pressure is centered near 22N125W, with a surface
trough bisecting the low from 16N131W to 30N120W, then 
continuing north of the region. Another surface trough has formed
N of the ITCZ roughly along 112W, extending northward to the 
Revillagigedo Islands. Numerous moderate to isolated strong 
convection is noted E of this trough, across a broad region from 
09N to 24N between 107W and 112W. The impacts of gap winds are 
leading to fresh NE to E winds across a zone from 07N and 11N E 
of 107W. Fresh E to SE winds are also ongoing S of the ITCZ 
between 120W and 135W. Elsewhere, winds are moderate or weaker. 
Rough seas are ongoing where the fresh gap-associated winds are, 
and decaying northerly swell is causing 6 to 8 ft seas from 15N 
to 25N, W of 135W. Elsewhere, generally moderate seas prevail. 

For the forecast, as the low pressure moves northward and weakens
tonight, convection will subside. Gap winds will also diminish 
allowing winds and seas to lessen into Thu. A cold front is 
forecast to reach the far NW tonight and move eastward across the
waters north of 20N through Thu. The cold front will reach from 
30N133W to 24N139W by Thu night. Fresh to strong winds are 
expected on both sides of the front through Fri. Significant NW 
swell will follow the front, bringing rough to very roughly seas.
By the end of the weekend, seas 8 ft or great should encompass 
waters N of 10N and W of 120W. 

$$
Konarik