059 
AXPZ20 KNHC 172140
TWDEP 

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
2205 UTC Thu Jul 17 2025

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and
from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following
information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations,
radar, and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2100 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A tropical wave extends from 06N to 16N, with axis near 115W, 
moving westward at 10-15 kt. Scattered moderate isolated strong 
convection is from 06N to 13N between 110W and 120W. 

A tropical wave extends from 07N to 17N, with axis near 125W, 
moving westward at 5-10 kt. Scattered moderate convection is from
08N to 20N between 120W and 130W. 

A tropical wave extends from 06N to 16N, with axis near 139W, 
moving westward around 5-10 kt. Scattered moderate convection is 
from 06N to 17N between 130W and 140W. 
 
...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

The monsoon trough extends from 08N82W to 09N106W to 09N130W. 
The ITCZ begins near 09N130W and continues to 10N139W and then
beyond 140W. Scattered moderate convection is from 02N to 08N E 
of 87W, and from 06N to 13N between 100W and 110W.

...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...

Northerly winds funneling through the Chivela Pass in southern
Mexico support moderate N to NE winds in the Gulf of Tehuantepec
along with moderate seas to 5 ft in SW swell. Elsewhere, locally 
moderate or weaker winds prevail along with moderate seas in SW 
swell, except in the Gulf of California where seas are slight and
N of Cabo San Lazaro where NW swell is ongoing.

For the forecast, moderate SE winds will pulse over the northern
Gulf of California, reaching moderate to fresh speeds Sun morning
as a low pressure develops just N of the area. Moderate to
locally fresh SE winds will then prevail through Tue night as the
low remains stationary. Pulsing fresh to strong N gap winds will
continue in the Gulf of Tehuantepec through Sun night as a
surface trough will move from the Yucatan Peninsula to Veracruz
the next several days. Afterward, a surface ridge over the Gulf
of America will shift eastward, and winds in Tehuantepec will
diminish to moderate to fresh speeds through Tue night. Rough 
seas are forecast to develop in Tehuantepec Fri night through 
late Sat. Elsewhere, moderate or weaker winds and moderate seas
will prevail. 

...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, 
AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...

Moderate to fresh NE to E gap winds prevail in the Gulf of 
Papagayo along with 5-7 ft seas. The wind fetch extends as far as
100W, including the outer offshore waters of El Salvador and
Guatemala. Between Ecuador and The Galapagos Islands, moderate 
SE to S winds are ongoing along with moderate seas to 7 ft in SW
swell. Light to gentle variable winds and slight to moderate 
seas in SW swell are elsewhere across the Central America offshore
waters.

For the forecast, pulsing fresh to strong NE to E winds will
continue in the Gulf of Papagayo through Tue night with periods
of rough seas to 9 ft. Moderate winds associated with this gap
wind event will continue to affect the outer offshore waters of
El Salvador and Guatemala through early next week. Otherwise, gentle
to moderate southerly winds will continue between Ecuador and 
The Galapagos Islands through Tue night with moderate seas.

...REMAINDER OF THE AREA...

High pressure of 1034 mb well northwest of the discussion waters
near 42N147W extends a ridge across the waters north of the ITCZ
and monsoon trough. South of the ridge or S of 20N, three
tropical waves tighten the pressure gradient and support a belt
of moderate to fresh NE to E winds that extend from the
monsoon/ITCZ to 17N W of 110W. Gentle to moderate NE to E winds 
are elsewhere north of 17N with moderate seas to 7 ft in N swell.
South of the ITCZ and monsoon trough, moderate to fresh winds 
prevail W of 93W with moderate seas.

For the forecast, moderate to fresh NE to E winds and moderate 
seas will continue north of the monsoon trough and ITCZ to 20N 
through Mon night, except for rough seas developing W of 125W 
Sat night through Tue night. These winds and seas will be 
modulated by the passage of several tropical waves under a 
prevalent subtropical ridge through the forecast period.

$$
Ramos