000
AXNT20 KNHC 190810
TWDAT 

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0615 UTC Tue May 19 2026

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 
0355 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

An eastern Atlantic tropical wave is along 23W, south of 11N and 
moving westward at 5 kt. A few showers are noted near the trough 
axis.

A central Atlantic tropical wave is along 59W, south of 14N and 
moving westward at 10 kt. Scattered showers and isolated 
thunderstorms are seen across NE South America and nearby waters.

A western Caribbean tropical wave is along 83W, south of 16N and
moving westward at 10-15 kt. A few showers are present near the
trough axis.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic through the coast of the 
Guinea-Bissau near 12N16W, then runs southwestward to 06N18W. The
ITCZ extends from 06N18W to 05N22W and then from 05N24W to 00N50W.
Scattered moderate to isolated strong is evident south of 08N and
east of 15W and south of 06N and between 23W and 33W.

...GULF OF AMERICA...

The subtropical ridge over the western Atlantic extends into the
Gulf waters forcing fresh to strong E-SE winds and moderate seas
west of a line from southern Louisiana to NE Yucatan and also in
the Florida Straits. Elsewhere, moderate or weaker winds and
slight to moderate seas prevail. Generally dry weather conditions
dominate the basin, except for some showers reaching the nearshore
waters of Tamaulipas and Veracruz.

For the forecast, high pressure over the western Atlantic will extend
a ridge over and just north of the Gulf through the week. Expect
moderate to fresh SE winds over the western Gulf early this week
between the high pressure and lower pressure over Mexico. Fresh
to strong winds will pulse off the northwest Yucatan peninsula
during the evenings through mid-week. 

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

Favorable divergence aloft combines with tropical moisture and
diurnal heating to produce scattered showers and isolated
thunderstorms across portions of Cuba, Hispaniola and nearby
waters along their southern coasts. A 1030 mb high pressure system
to the north of the islands supports fresh to near gale-force
easterly trade winds and seas of 6-10 ft across the central
Caribbean, including the Gulf of Venezuela. Fresh to strong
easterly breezes and moderate seas are noted in the Gulf of
Honduras. Moderate to fresh easterly winds and and moderate winds
are found in the eastern Caribbean and Windward Passage.
Elsewhere, moderate or weaker winds and slight to moderate seas
prevail.

For the forecast, the pressure gradient between high pressure
north of the area and low pressure over Colombia will support 
fresh to strong trades across the central Caribbean and the Gulf 
of Honduras through Wed, with moderate to fresh trades across the 
remainder of the forecast waters. Rough seas can be expected in 
the central Caribbean during this time. Large E swell resulting in
rough seas will impact the tropical Atlantic waters into Tue 
night, then begin to subside. 

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A couple of surface trough and divergence aloft supports scattered
showers and isolated thunderstorms west of 69W. High pressure to
the north forces fresh to strong easterly trade winds and moderate
seas off northern Hispaniola. Moderate to fresh easterly winds 
and seas of 5-8 ft are evident west of 55W and south of 28N.

The central and eastern tropical Atlantic are under the influence
of a broad subtropical ridge that supports fresh to strong
northerly winds north of 17N and east of 23W. Moderate to fresh
easterly breezes and moderate to rough seas are present south of
24N and west of 30W. Elsewhere, moderate or weaker winds and
moderate seas prevail.

For the forecast west of 55W, high pressure centered over the
central Atlantic will support fresh trade winds N of Hispaniola 
overnight. A surface trough from S of Bermuda to around 29N73W 
will dissipate overnight, leaving tranquil marine conditions in 
place through midweek. 

$$
Delgado