843 
AXNT20 KNHC 101703
TWDAT 

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1815 UTC Fri Jul 10 2026

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 
1800 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Caribbean Gale Warning: The pressure gradient between the central
Atlantic high pressure and lower pressures over northern South 
America will support strong to near gale-force northeast to east 
trades over the south-central Caribbean, including the Gulf of 
Venezuela into early next week. Winds are forecast to pulse to 
gale- force off the coast of Colombia and the Gulf of Venezuela 
tonight and again Sat night. Seas are expected to peak to around 
14 ft off Colombia Sat night. 

Please refer to the latest NWS High Seas Forecast at website: 
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFEP2.shtml for more details.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A central Atlantic tropical wave extends from near 16N51W to 
03N53W. It is moving westward at 15 kt. Scattered showers and
thunderstorms are seen near the wave axis.

A central Caribbean tropical wave is along 74W south of 19N 
moving westward at about 15 kt. The wave appears to enhance some
convection over Hispaniola, eastern Cuba, and the nearby waters
including the Windward Passage.

Another central Caribbean tropical wave is along 83W south of 19N
moving westward also at about 15 kt. Numerous moderate to strong 
convection continues across the far SW Caribbean offshore of 
Colombia, Panama, Costa Rica, and SE Nicaragua where the East 
Pacific monsoon trough is analyzed and the wave appears to enhance
convection. Scattered showers and thunderstorms are near its 
northern portion from 15N to 20N and between 80W and 84W.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough axis enters the Atlantic through the coast of 
Mauritania near 18N16W and continues southwestward to 08N28W, 
where it transitions to the ITCZ. The ITCZ then runs from 08N28W 
to 09N50W. Scattered moderate convection is occurring from 06N to
12N and E of 20W. Elsewhere, no significant convection is seen
along either feature.

...GULF OF AMERICA...

Combined support from an upper level trough over the SE US and a
surface trough in the Bay of Campeche supports widely scattered
showers and thunderstorms across the western and northern Gulf.
Outside of convection, ridging dominates the basin with gentle to
moderate or weaker E to SE winds and slight seas prevalent across
the region.

For the forecast, a weak ridge axis extending westward from the 
Atlantic across the Gulf along 28N will change into next week. 
This will support gentle to moderate east to southeast winds south
of 26N, and mostly light to gentle southeast to south- southwest 
winds north of 26N through the period. Winds become mostly light 
and variable starting Mon over the north- central and NE Gulf. 
Pulsing fresh northeast to east winds are expected offshore the 
Yucatan peninsula each night. 

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

Please refer to the Special Features section above for details on
gale conditions forecast for offshore Colombia and in the Gulf 
of Venezuela, and the Tropical Waves section for details on
convection in the Caribbean.

The pressure gradient between the Atlantic ridge and lower 
pressures over Colombia supports a large swath of fresh to strong 
trades and rough seas over the central to SW Caribbean. Winds near
gale force are confirmed in the Gulf of Venezuela, per a recent
scatterometer pass. Moderate to fresh trades and moderate seas 
prevail across the remainder of the Caribbean.

For the forecast, the pressure gradient between central Atlantic 
high pressure and lower pressure over northern South America will 
support strong trades over the central Caribbean into next week. 
Winds will pulse to gale-force off Colombia and in the Gulf of 
Venezuela tonight and Sat night. Trades over the Gulf of Honduras 
will pulse to strong in the late afternoons and evenings through 
early next week. A pair of tropical waves will move across the 
basin through Sat. 

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A frontal boundary SE of Bermuda is aiding in the development of
scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms N of 26N between 50W
and 65W. An upper level trough also supports scattered shower and
thunderstorm development over the southern Bahamas and the Turks 
and Caicos. Ridging dominates much of the remaining Atlantic, with
a large and persistent Saharan Dust plume also helping to keep 
much of the remaining basin free of convection. Moderate to fresh
trades and moderate seas prevail S of 22N and W of 35W, as well as
N of 22N and E of 35W. Fresh to locally strong trades are
confirmed by a recent scatterometer pass from 10N to 20N between
50W and the Lesser Antilles. Gentle to moderate or weaker winds 
and 2-5 ft seas prevail elsewhere.

For the forecast west of 55W, the subtropical ridge will remain 
dominant through the period, supporting moderate to fresh trades S
of 23N, with mainly gentle winds to the N. Pulsing strong winds 
are expected each N offshore Hispaniola and in the Windward 
Passage. An upper-level low pressure will move W from the Bahamas 
and Florida through the weekend, bringing thunderstorms with 
locally strong winds and frequent lightning. 

$$
Adams