966 
AXNT20 KNHC 270613
TWDAT 

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0615 UTC Mon Jul 27 2026

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 
0550 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A tropical wave is in the E Atlantic with axis just E of the Cape
Verde Islands near 22W, extending from 08N to 18N, and moving W 
at 10-15 kt. No significant convection is noted near the wave. 

A tropical wave is in the central Atlantic with axis near 52W,
extending from 09N to 21N, and moving W at 15 kt. Scattered
moderate convection is E of the wave axis from 08N to 14N between
44W and 48W.

A tropical wave is in the central Caribbean with axis near 68W
southward from 18N into Venezuela, and moving W at 15 kt. No 
significant convection is observed near the wave over the ocean.

A tropical wave is in the SW Caribbean with axis near 78W from 18N
southward to E Panama, and moving W at 15 kt. Only isolated
showers are associated with this wave. 

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic near 20N16W and continues 
to 10N44W. The ITCZ extends from 10N44W to 07N49W, and then 
resumes from 07N50W to 06N55W. Scattered moderate to isolated
strong convection is present from 06N to 13N and between 25W and 
35W.

...GULF OF AMERICA...

High pressure of 1018 mb is centered near 26N90W and is supporting
light to gentle variable winds, except along the northern Gulf
coastal and immediate offshore waters where moderate winds are
present. Moderate to locally fresh E winds are also ongoing in the
Bay of Campeche associated with a surface trough that is coming
off the Yucatan peninsula. Aside from the winds, the surface
trough is generating scattered moderate convection where recent
scatterometer data show a pocket of strong E winds.  

For the forecast, high pressure will meander about the central 
Gulf and weaken through Wed, leading to gentle to moderate winds 
and slight to moderate seas. Pulsing fresh NE to E winds are 
likely each afternoon and evening along and just north of the 
Yucatan Peninsula beginning on Mon as a trough develops daily and 
drifts westward. Looking ahead, showers and thunderstorms are 
expected to become active across the NE Gulf Wed afternoon through
Thu as a frontal boundary sinks to just N of the area.

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

High pressure north of the islands supports fresh trade winds and
seas of 5-8 ft across the central Caribbean. Moderate or weaker 
winds and slight to moderate seas prevail elsewhere. Otherwise,
scattered heavy showers are ongoing in the Windward Passage.

For the forecast, the pressure gradient between the western 
Atlantic ridge along 25N-26N and the Colombian low will support 
fresh to strong winds with moderate to locally rough seas across 
the south-central Caribbean S of 15N tonight, with fresh winds in
the Gulf of Honduras. The ridge will weaken and shift eastward 
Mon through Wed, allowing winds and seas to diminish over the 
central Caribbean into midweek. Looking ahead, winds and seas 
will increase again across the central Caribbean starting Wed as 
the ridge builds again north of the area. 

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A surface ridge extending from a 1025 mb center of high pressure
near 32N41W extends across the Bahamas offshore waters. To the N
of 27N and west of 73W, scattered moderate convection and tstms 
are occuring ahead of a cold front. Winds ahead of the front are
moderate to fresh from the SW extending to 63W and N of 27N. 
Elsewhere, moderate or lighter winds and moderate seas prevail.

For the forecast west of 55W, the high pressure and associated
ridge in the Western Atlantic will drift eastward and weaken 
slightly Mon through Wed. Expect fresh to strong SW winds and 
moderate to rough seas across the northern waters, mainly N of 
29N, most of the week as sinking frontal boundaries remain just to
the north of area. The Atlantic ridge will building modestly 
westward and into the central Bahamas Wed through Fri.

$$
Ramos