000
AXNT20 KNHC 131601
TWDAT 

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1815 UTC Wed May 13 2026

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 
1545 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A tropical wave is analyzed along 39W from 03N to 14N, moving 
westward at 10 kt. The wave is devoid of significant deep 
convection at this time.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic through the coast of 
Africa near 17N17W and continues SW to 07N24W. The ITCZ extends 
from 07N24W to 02N50W. Scattered moderate convection is noted
within 200 nm on either side of the ITCZ. 

...GULF OF AMERICA...

A stationary front extends across northern Florida and connects 
to a 1012 mb low near 28N84W, then a cold front extends from the
low to 24N86W. A stationary front continues from that point to
20N90W. Moderate to fresh N to NE winds are in the NW semicircle 
of the low from the Florida Big Bend to offshore SE Louisiana. 
Gentle to moderate northerlies are across the Bay of Campeche 
while light to gentle winds prevail elsewhere as high pressure 
starts to build in the wake of the fronts. Seas are slight basin-
wide, except moderate to 5 ft in the NW  of the low where the 
strongest winds are ongoing.

For the forecast, the front is forecast to exit the SE Gulf 
tonight. High pressure and quiescent conditions will build behind 
the front today and Thu. Another weak cold front is forecast to 
enter the NE Gulf Thu night and dissipate over the E Gulf on Fri. 
Southeast winds are forecast to reach moderate to fresh speeds 
over the western half of the basin this weekend. 

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

The subtropical ridge over the Atlantic forces fresh to strong 
trade winds and 5-8 ft seas across the south-central to southwest
Caribbean. Moderate to fresh easterly breezes and moderate seas 
are noted across the remainder of the central and eastern 
Caribbean along with 4-6 ft seas. Moderate or weaker winds and 
slight to moderate seas are prevalent across the NW Caribbean. 
Otherwise, heavy showers and tstms are ongoing offshore Costa Rica
near the E Pacific monsoon trough.

For the forecast, the pressure gradient between high pressure north of
the area and the Colombian Low will support fresh to strong
tradewinds over the central Caribbean through the weekend, with
the strongest winds offshore Colombia and in the Gulf of
Venezuela. Moderate to fresh tradewinds are expected across the
remainder of forecast waters through Sun night, pulsing to
strong in the Gulf of Honduras Sat and Sun night. Large E swell
with rough seas will impact the tropical N Atlantic waters
tonight through the weekend. 

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A stationary front extends across northern Florida and connects to
a 1013 mb low near 31N85W. A broad area of scattered showers and  
tstms prevails across the W Atlantic mainly W of 63W. The 
remainder of the subtropical Atlantic is under the influence of a 
broad ridge anchored by high pressure located well N of the 
discussion waters. Fresh to strong N to NE winds and seas of 8-10 
ft prevail from the coast of W Africa to just pass the Cape Verde 
Islands from 05N to 23N. Over the remainder tropical waters winds 
are moderate to fresh from the NE to E and seas are moderate to 
rough. Between 55W and the Bahamas, winds are moderate to fresh 
from the E to SE and seas moderate. Moderate or weaker winds and 
moderate seas are elsewhere. 

For the forecast west of 55W, the frontal boundary off NE Florida
will lift north of the area by Thu morning. A weak cold front 
will move off the NE Florida coast on Thu, extending from 31N50W 
to 25N72W Fri morning, from 31N72W to 26N65W on Sat morning, then 
E of the area Sun. Fresh to strong S winds are expected N of 27N 
ahead of the front. 

$$
ERA