264 
AXNT20 KNHC 082245
TWDAT 

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0015 UTC Wed Sep 9 2026

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 
2200 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A tropical wave along 17W north of 03N is moving into the eastern
Atlantic at 10 to 15 kt. Scattered moderate convection is evident
from 10N to 15N between 17W and 22W. 

An eastern Atlantic tropical wave has its axis near 49W from 02N 
to 18N, moving westward at about 15 to 20 kt. Scattered moderate 
and isolated strong convection is noted from 08N to 16N between 
50W and 55W. 

A central Atlantic tropical wave has its axis near 60W from 19N 
southward, moving westward at 10 to 15 kt. Scattered moderate 
convection is noted from 12N to 15N between 58W and 62W.

A central western tropical wave has its axis near 82W, south of 
19N. It is moving westward at 10 to 15 kt. Scattered moderate to
isolated strong convection is noted from 17N to 21N between 80W 
and 85W. 

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic near 21N16W, and continues
southwestward to 09N30W. The ITCZ continues from 09N30W to 08N35W
to 10N45W. Scattered moderate and isolated strong convection is 
seen from 06N to 11N between 30W and 35W.
 
...GULF OF AMERICA...

A stationary front extends across the eastern waters from Venice,
Florida to south-central Louisiana. A few showers and thunderstorms
are in the vicinity of the front. A surface trough persists over
the southwest Gulf, northeast of Veracruz. Gentle to moderate 
winds are active over the central and west-central Gulf north of
the trough. Light to gentle winds are over the SE Gulf. Gentle 
winds and slight seas are noted elsewhere. 

For the forecast, weak high pressure will persist across the Gulf
through the weekend, producing a weak pressure gradient. This 
will support mostly light to gentle winds and slight seas over 
much of the waters. Winds will pulse to fresh with moderate seas 
off the western Yucatan Peninsula during the evenings due to a 
diurnal surface trough moving westward from the peninsula each 
night. 

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

An upper low is centered between Panama and Jamaica, supporting
clusters of showers and thunderstorms over the northwest Caribbean
between Cuba and Belize. The pressure gradient between high 
pressure over the western Atlantic and the Colombian low is 
supporting fresh to strong trades along with moderate seas over 
the south- central Caribbean. Moderate to fresh trades and 
moderate are over the rest of basin, with the exception of the 
northwestern waters, where light to gentle winds are noted.

For the forecast, the western Atlantic ridge extends E to W along
about 26N to the NW Bahamas. The pressure gradient between the
ridge and the Colombian low will support strong winds, locally
to near- gale force, through Wed night before diminishing
modestly through Fri. Rough seas will develop over these waters
with the persistent strong winds. Fresh to locally strong winds
will pulse tonight in the Gulf of Honduras. Elsewhere, moderate 
or weaker winds and slight to moderate seas will prevail. Large 
easterly swell will accompany a tropical wave into the Tropical N 
Atlantic waters early Wed through Thu morning.

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A stationary front extends from Bermuda to Fort Pierce Florida. A
pre-frontal trough also extends from 31N63W to the Windward
Passage. Numerous showers and thunderstorms are active along the
trough from 25N to 30N. The subtropical ridge dominates the
remainder of the basin, anchored by 1027 mb high pressure near
31N38W, and extending westward through the northwest Bahamas. 
This pattern is supporting gentle breezes and 3-5 ft seas along 
the ridge axis through the Bahamas, and moderate to fresh NE winds
and 6-9 ft seas south of the ridge.

For the forecast west of 55W, the ridge will gradually shift 
northeastward and strengthen through mid week. This will cause 
winds to increase slightly S of 21N through Thu. A stationary 
front will linger near 31N through mid week before lifting 
northward. Showers and thunderstorms will remain active across 
these northern waters W of 60W through tonight. 

$$
Christensen