102 
AXNT20 KNHC 082141
TWDAT 

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0015 UTC Sat May 9 2026

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 
2100 UTC.

...Caribbean Gale Warning...
A tight pressure gradient between a 1018 mb high over the western
Atlantic and relatively lower pressure over northern Colombia 
will continue to support fresh to strong easterly trade winds with
rough seas in the south-central Caribbean through midweek next 
week, including the Gulf of Venezuela. During the nighttime hours 
tonight through Mon night, these winds are expected to peak at 
near-gale to gale-force off Barranquilla.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A tropical wave is in the central Atlantic, south of 09N with 
axis near 40W, moving west at 5 kt. Convection associated with 
this wave has diminished this morning.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic near 10N14W and continues
southwestward to 06N20W. The ITCZ extends from 06N20W to 02N33W,
and from 01N41W to 01N49W. Scattered moderate convection is 
present south of 04N and between 25W and 45W. 

...GULF OF AMERICA...

A stationary front extends from the northeast Gulf over the
Florida Big Bend area to South Texas. Scattered showers and
thunderstorms are active over coastal Louisiana. Weak 1015 mb high
pressure is centered over the eastern Gulf, supporting gentle
breezes and 1-2 ft seas, with gentle to moderate SE winds and 2-4
ft over the central and western Gulf.

For the forecast, the front across the northern Gulf will lift 
northward as a warm front. Afterward, the ridge should build back 
across the Gulf from the east. Winds will pulse to strong near the
Yucatan Peninsula in the evenings through Sun night. Looking 
ahead, another cold front might move into the northern Gulf waters
late Sun, and reach from central Florida to eastern Bay of 
Campeche by late Mon, followed by moderate to fresh N to NE winds.
Scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms are possible 
ahead of the front. 
 
...CARIBBEAN SEA...

Broad high pressure north of the Caribbean and lower pressure in 
the deep tropics result in fresh to strong easterly trade winds 
and locally rough seas in the south-central Caribbean. Elsewhere,
mainly moderate winds and seas prevail.

For the forecast, a tight pressure gradient between a 1018 mb high at
the western Atlantic and relatively lower pressure over northern 
Colombia will continue to support fresh to strong easterly trade 
winds with rough seas in the south-central Caribbean through
midweek next week, including the Gulf of Venezuela. During the 
nighttime hours tonight through Mon night, these winds are 
expected to peak at near-gale to gale-force off Barranquilla. 
Fresh to strong with locally near-gale E winds and rough seas are 
also anticipated in the Gulf of Honduras through Sun night. 
Moderate to fresh trades are expected across the remainder of the 
eastern and central Caribbean. 

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A stationary cold front extends from 31N75W to near Palm Coast, 
Florida. This front is causing little sensible weather over the 
ocean. A ridge anchored by a 1018 mb center near 27N61W, dominates
moves of the basin W of 35W, translating to moderate or weaker 
winds and slight to moderate seas. A surface trough extends south 
from 31N to 27N along 52W, inducing scattered moderate convection 
north of 27N east of the trough to 45W. In the far eastern 
Atlantic, a cold front extends from the Canary Islands to 26N30W. 
Fresh NW winds and rough seas are N of this front. Gentle to 
moderate NE to E winds and 4-6 ft seas.

For the forecast west of 55W, the aforementioned cold front will
gradually weaken through Sat as the cold front portion shifts 
eastward north of 28N. A stronger cold front is expected to follow
a similar path Mon through Tue, followed by fresh to strong 
winds. Scattered showers and thunderstorms, some possibly strong 
to marginally severe, are possible near both fronts. Meanwhile, a 
1018 mb high over the western Atlantic near 27N62W will support 
fresh to locally strong winds off northern Hispaniola Sat through 
Mon.

$$ 
Christensen