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Atlantic Tropical Weather Discussion

AXNT20 KNHC 311736

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1805 UTC Sat Oct 31 2020

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 
1710 UTC.


A 1007 mb low pressure is centered near 15N71W along a tropical 
wave with an axis along 71W from 22N southward moving westward 
at 10-15 kt. Numerous moderate to isolated strong convection is 
evident near the low from 12N-19N between 66W-73W. This system 
is gradually becoming better organized, and conditions are 
conducive for further development. A tropical depression is 
expected to form during the next day or so while the disturbance 
moves generally westward into the western Caribbean Sea. Interests
in Honduras and Nicaragua should monitor the progress of this 
system. Regardless of development, this disturbance is expected to
produce heavy rainfall across portions of the ABC Islands and 
Jamaica through the weekend. The chance of tropical cyclone 
formation during the next 48 hours is high. Please refer to the 
Tropical Weather Outlook at for more 

Gale Warning: The low in the Caribbean will develop gale force 
winds by 01/0600 UTC near 15N between 74W-76W. As the low 
continues to progress westward, winds will increase to storm force
by 02/0000 UTC from 16N-18N between 77W-83W and will continue 
through at least 02/1200 UTC. Seas will build to 15 ft in this 
area. For more information, please refer to the Atlantic High Seas
Forecast at 

Potential Heavy Rainfall event: Heavy rainfall is possible 
across parts of Central America, from late this weekend into 
early next week, particularly in western Panama, Costa Rica, 
Nicaragua and Honduras. Flash flooding and mudslides may be 
possible, if heavy rainfall occurs. The rainfall threat may be 
enhanced by possible tropical cyclone development of the low 
pressure area associated with a tropical wave along 71W. Please 
refer to bulletins and forecasts provided by your national 
meteorological service for more details.


An Atlantic Ocean tropical wave is along 33W from 10N southward 
moving westward at 15 kt. Scattered moderate convection is 
currently associated with both the wave and the ITCZ noted from 
03N-08N between 32W-38W. 

See the Special Features section for more information on the 
tropical wave along 71W.

A Caribbean Sea tropical wave is along 75W from 22N southward, 
moving westward at 10-15 kt. Scattered moderate convection is 
noted from 10N-22N between 74W-77W. Model guidance shows this wave
is likely to merge with the tropical wave currently along 71W 
during the next 24 hours.


The monsoon trough passes through the coastal plains of Guinea 
near 09N13W to 08N17W. The ITCZ continues from 08N17W to 04N33W, 
then continues west of a tropical wave near 03N34W to the coast of
Brazil near 02N50W. Scattered moderate convection is noted within
200 nm of the ITCZ between 15W-32W. 


A weak stationary front is lingering across the SE Gulf, 
extending off the SW Florida coast near 26N82W to the northern 
Yucatan near 21N87W. Showers are seen along the front with 
isolated moderate convection right off the NE Yucatan coast. 
Moderate NNE winds are noted behind the front in the SE Gulf. A 
surface trough stretches across the western Gulf from 19N92W to 
the southeast Texas coast near 30N95W. No significant convection 
is associated with this feature. Light to moderate winds are noted
across the rest of the Gulf. Seas are averaging 3-6 ft with 
upwards of 7 ft in the southern Bay of Campeche. 

Fresh to strong northerly winds will continue in the Bay of 
Campeche this morning. A strong cold front will move into the 
northern Gulf Sun, extend from southern Florida to the Yucatan 
peninsula on Mon, and move south of the area Tue. Fresh to strong 
northerly winds are expected across the region Sun night through 
Tue. Strong winds are possible in the SE Gulf Wed.


Please refer to the Special Features section about the low and 
tropical wave along 71W and the tropical waves section for the 
other tropical wave in the west-central Caribbean. 

The monsoon trough extends from north of Colombia near 12N73W 
to the coast of Panama near 09N79W. Scattered moderate 
convection is noted in the SW Caribbean from 09N-15N between 76W-
84W. Scattered moderate convection is also moving across the 
Lesser Antilles from 10N-15N between 59W-64W. Moderate to fresh 
trades are in the eastern Caribbean with light to moderate winds 
across the rest of the basin. Seas are averaging 3-6 ft with 
upwards of 9 ft near the 1007 mb low. 

A low pressure area along a tropical wave in the central 
Caribbean will travel westward into the western Caribbean, with 
widespread showers and thunderstorms. A tropical depression is 
expected to form during the next day or so while the disturbance 
moves generally westward into the western Caribbean Sea. Heavy 
rainfall is already affecting Costa Rica and Nicaragua adjacent 
waters. Regardless of development, gale and storm force winds are 
expected over the waters from 14N to 18N between 72W and 85W 
tonight through early next week.


A cold front extends across the western Atlantic near 31N62W to 
27N77W, then stalls from 27N77W to the southeast Florida coast 
near 27N80W. Showers are within 50 nm of the front. Moderate to 
fresh NNE winds are north of the cold front with light to gentle 
winds south of it. Seas are averaging 3-6 ft with upwards of 8 ft 
near 31N. A pre-frontal trough is noted from 28N67W to 23N71W. 
Scattered moderate convection is near this trough and to the west 
of it across the Bahamas from 21N-28N between 67W-77W. Surface 
ridging extends across the rest of the basin anchored by a 1027 mb
high near Portugal. Light to gentle winds prevail under the 
influence of the high pressure with seas 5-7 ft. 

The cold front will stall and dissipate from 28N69W to the 
Florida Keys later today. A strong cold front will sweep across 
the forecast area Sun night through Tue, with strong north to 
northwest winds and building seas expected behind the front.