203 
AXNT20 KNHC 151100
TWDAT 

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1215 UTC Sat Aug 15 2026

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 
1050 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Caribbean Gale Warning: The pressure gradient remains tighten 
between surface ridging over the W Atlantic and the Colombian 
Low. This is accelerating winds in the south-central Caribbean, 
supporting gale-force NE to E winds off Colombia and over the 
Gulf of Venezuela this morning. Expect gale-force winds again 
tonight through early Sun morning along with rough to very rough 
seas to near 15 ft near and downwind of these winds. Please read 
the latest HIGH SEAS FORECAST issued by the National Hurricane 
Center at website - https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml 
and the latest NWS Offshore Zone Forecast issued by the National 
Hurricane Center at website 
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAOFFNT3.shtml for further details.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A tropical wave extends from 04N to 20N with axis near 23W, moving
westward at 10-15 kt. Scattered moderate convection is from 06N to
14N between 22W and 32W.

A tropical wave extends from 04N to 20N with axis near 39W, moving
west at around 10-15 kt. Scattered moderate convection is noted
from 06N to 14N between 38W and 48W. 

A tropical wave is in the E Caribbean south of 20N with axis near
62W, moving westward at around 15-20 kt. Scattered moderate
convection extends from 08N to 17N between 56W and 66W.

A tropical wave is in the far W Caribbean with axis near 83W,
moving westward at about 15 kt. Scattered moderate convection is
in the Gulf of Honduras.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic near 17N16W and extends 
southwestward to 09N48W. Convection is discussed in the Tropical 
Waves section above. 

...GULF OF AMERICA...

A 1021 mb high is centered over the NE Gulf, supporting gentle to
moderate winds across the forecast waters. Seas are 1-4 ft. 
Scattered moderate convection is noted offshore Veracruz
associated with a surface trough.

For the forecast, a center of high pressure will remain over the 
north-central Gulf this weekend, then moves SE while weakening 
some by Mon. This pattern will produce mostly gentle to moderate E
to SE winds across the basin, with pulses of fresh winds 
occurring north and west of the Yucatan Peninsula and into the Bay
of Campeche each night, as a surface trough migrates from the 
Yucatan Peninsula westward across the SW Gulf. Slight to moderate 
seas are expected through the forecast period. Looking ahead, by 
midweek next week winds may increase to fresh speeds over the NW 
and west- central Gulf as the pressure gradient tightens between 
the high pressure and lower pressures over north- central Mexico. 

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

See Special Features section for information on the Gale Warning 
in effect for the south-central basin. See the Tropical Waves
section for more info on winds and convection. 

Outside of the gale area, fresh to strong trade winds and 
moderate seas are occurring over the Lesser Antilles. Gentle to 
moderate winds prevail over the remaining waters with seas 3-6 ft.

For the forecast, the tropical wave over the far western Caribbean 
combined with the Bermuda-Azores High located north of the region
will continue to support fresh to near gale-force winds over most
of the east and central Caribbean this weekend. Peak winds to 
minimal gale-force are expected offshore Colombia, and in the 
Gulf of Venezuela again tonight. A second and stronger tropical 
wave, with axis near 62W, Invest AL92 , will continue to impact 
the Leeward Islands today. Even though development is highly 
unlikely, strong gusty winds, rough seas and areas of heavy rain 
are likely across portions of the Lesser Antilles today. These 
weather conditions are forecast to shift westward toward the 
central and SW Caribbean, including the Greater Antilles and the 
Windward Passage from tonight through Mon. Afterwards, the 
tropical wave may weaken, as it moves toward the W Caribbean.

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Ridging prevails across the basin, anchored by a 1023 mb high SE
of Bermuda. Along the coast of Western Sahara and through the 
Canary Islands, NE winds are fresh with seas 6-7 ft. Elsewhere 
the trades are moderate or weaker with seas 3-6 ft.

For the forecast west of 55W, the Bermuda-Azores High, combined 
with the passage of two tropical through the Caribbean Sea will 
cause fresh to strong NE to E winds south of 22N through Sun night
with near gale-force NE winds likely across the approaches and in
the Windward Passage late this afternoon through early Sun 
morning. Looking ahead, a cold front will slowly push across the 
northern forecast border east of 70W late on Sun, causing a wind 
shift to the NW and then N with fresh to locally strong wind 
speeds ahead of the front on Sun and Mon north of 28N. The front 
will stall on Monday before dissipating Tue.

$$
Ramos