074 
AXNT20 KNHC 151615
TWDAT 

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1815 UTC Fri May 15 2026

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 
1600 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

An eastern Atlantic tropical wave is near 33W, south of 13N, 
moving westward at about 10 kt. Scattered showers are noted 
across the northern half of the wave. 

A central Atlantic tropical wave is near 55W, south of 13N, 
moving westward at 10-15 kt. Scattered showers are noted across 
the southern half of the wave. 

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic near 16N17W then curves 
southwestward to 05N30W. The ITCZ extends from 00N38W to 02N30W 
to 00N50W. Scattered moderate convection is present south of 07N 
and E of 27W.

...GULF OF AMERICA...

Continental high pressure of 1017 mb is centered S of Louisiana
and dominates the basin. Winds are mainly light to gentle and 
anticyclonic, but moderate S winds are present in the NW Gulf. 
Seas are 1 to 3 ft in the NE basin and 2 to 4 ft in the SW. Dry 
air is in place and no convection is occurring. 

For the forecast, high pressure will dominate into early next 
week. As low pressure deepens over Texas, the pressure gradient 
will tighten and SE winds will increase to moderate to fresh over 
the western Gulf this weekend, then continue through early next 
week.

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

A weakening stationary front is analyzed in the NW Caribbean from
western Cuba to near Cozumel. The only remaining convection in 
the basin is within 90 nm of the coast of Panama, where the 
Eastern Pacific monsoon trough is aiding in thunderstorm 
development. The pressure gradient between high pressure centered 
E of Bermuda and low pressure over northern Colombia is leading to
strong E winds in the central and southern Caribbean, highest 
offshore Colombia and in the Gulf of Venezuela. Rough seas are 
also present where the strong winds are ongoing. For the remainder
of the basin, aside from the NW, moderate to fresh trades and 
moderate seas prevail. In the NW basin, mainly gentle E winds and 
2 to 4 ft seas are present. 

For the forecast, the pressure gradient will continue to support 
fresh to near gale trades across the central Caribbean, with the 
strongest winds offshore Colombia and in the Gulf of Honduras. 
Moderate to fresh trades are expected across the remainder of the 
forecast waters, pulsing to strong in the Gulf of Honduras at 
night Sat through Tue. Large W swell resulting in rough seas will 
impact the tropical N Atlantic waters into Mon, then begin to 
subside. 

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A weakening stationary front extends from W of Bermuda to the 
Florida Straits. Scattered moderate convection is N of 24N, E of 
the front to 62W. Winds in this zone of convection are fresh to 
strong out of the SW, and seas are rough. Behind this front, the 
tail end of a cold front extends from 31N75W to 28N81W. Moderate
to fresh winds are noted W of the front. Elsewhere N of 20N, 
mainly moderate E winds and moderate seas dominate. To the S of 
20N, fresh trades and rough seas prevail. 

For the forecast west of 55W, the stationary front will gradually
dissipate into the weekend. Fresh to strong SW winds NE of the 
boundary N of 28N will lift N of the region later today, allowing 
rough seas to diminish. Thereafter, mainly tranquil marine 
conditions with moderate to strong easterly winds will prevail 
through early next week. 

$$
ERA