656 
AXNT20 KNHC 210419
TWDAT 

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0615 UTC Mon Sep 21 2026

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 
0400 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

An eastern Atlantic tropical wave has its axis near 29W, south of
16N, moving eastward at around 10 to 15 kt. No significant 
convection is noted with this wave. 

A central Atlantic tropical wave has its axis near 46W, south of 
20N, drifting slowly westward. No significant convection is noted
with this wave. 

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough extends off the coast of Africa near 19N16W to
10N20W to 06N35W. Scattered moderate convection is noted from 10N
to 15N and east of 20W, and from 08N to 10N between 47W and 52W. 

...GULF OF AMERICA...

A weak pressure gradient prevails across the area generating 
light to gentle winds and slight seas across the Gulf. An upper
low centered over west-central Florida is supporting clusters of
showers and thunderstorms off Panama City, Florida, off Tampa Bay,
Florida, and over the Florida Straits.

For the forecast, weak surface ridging across the southeastern 
U.S. will maintain generally gentle to moderate winds across the 
basin through mid week. A vigorous upper-level low and associated 
surface low or trough over the central Gulf will contribute to 
scattered showers and thunderstorms over the eastern Gulf through 
the midweek, with the Straits of Florida the most active area. A 
cold front may sink into the northern Gulf Thu night through Fri, 
leading to a modest increase in winds across the basin.

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

A relatively weak pressure pattern is across the basin. Moderate
to fresh winds and moderate seas prevail east of 80W. Light to
gentle winds and slight to moderate seas prevail west of 80W.
An upper trough reaches from the eastern Gulf into the northwest
Caribbean. Divergent flow aloft on the southeast side of the upper
trough is supporting clusters of showers and thunderstorms off,  
Nicaragua, southwest of Jamaica, and off eastern Cuba and the 
Windward Passage.

For the forecast, a modest pressure gradient between weak high
pressure currently near Bermuda and the Colombian Low will
maintain moderate to fresh trade winds over the south-central
Caribbean throughout the upcoming work week. A vigorous upper-
level low over the Gulf of America will promote scattered to
numerous showers and thunderstorms over the west and
northwestern Caribbean through midweek. 
 

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

For awareness purposes, Tropical Storm Fay is centered northeast
of the discussion area near 34.1N 31.9W at 21/0300 UTC or 335 nm 
southwest of the Azores, moving ESE at 4 kt. Estimated minimum 
central pressure is 995 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 60 kt 
with gusts to 75 kt.

An upper trough reaches from the eastern Gulf into the northwest
Caribbean. Divergent flow aloft on the southeast side of the upper
trough is supporting clusters of showers and thunderstorms from
the Florida Straits, off northern Cuba, across the central and
southern Bahamas, and between the central Bahamas and Bermuda. A
weak pressure gradient prevails across the discussion waters. 
Light to gentle winds prevail across the waters west of 45W, 
except reaching moderate speeds near the central and southern 
Bahamas. Slight to moderate seas prevail over these waters. E of 
45W, gentle to moderate winds and moderate seas prevail. 

For the forecast west of 55W, a very weak pressure gradient across the western
Atlantic will promote variable gentle to moderate winds across
forecast waters through early Thu. A vigorous upper-level low
over the Gulf of America and Florida, and abundant tropical
moisture across the Atlantic will force scattered showers and
thunderstorms across the waters west of 70W through Wed. Low
pressure will deepen offshore of the middle Atlantic coast of
the U.S. late Wed through Fri, allowing a cold front to move
into the far NW waters and N Florida Thu through Fri. The front
will be accompanied by increasing winds and the potential for
large N-NE swell. 

Meanwhile, Tropical Storm Fay is near 34.1N 31.9W at 11 PM EDT, and is
moving east-southeast at 4 kt. Maximum sustained winds are 60 kt
with gusts to 75 kt, and the minimum central pressure is 995 mb.
Fay will move to 33.7N 31.8W Mon morning, 32.7N 32.5W Mon evening,
31.6N 33.9W Tue morning, 30.8N 35.7W Tue evening, then weaken to 
a remnant low near 30.1N 37.6W Wed morning, and move to 29.6N 
39.3W Wed evening. Fay will change little in intensity as it moves
to 29.6N 42.2W late Thu. 

$$ 

Christensen