105 AXNT20 KNHC 160539 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 0615 UTC Wed Jul 16 2025 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0515 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Northeastern and north-central Gulf (AL93): Surface observations indicate that a broad area of low pressure continues to move westward across the Florida Panhandle and is producing disorganized shower and thunderstorm activity mainly south of its center. This system is forecast to continue moving westward, and could emerge or redevelop over the far northeastern to north- central portion of the Gulf, reaching the coast of Louisiana by Thursday. If this system moves far enough offshore, environmental conditions over the Gulf appear generally favorable for additional development, and a tropical depression could still form over the next couple of days before the system moves fully inland by the end of the week. Regardless of development, heavy rainfall could produce localized flash flooding over portions of Florida through through today. Heavy rainfall could also cause flash flooding for portions of the north-central Gulf Coast beginning late today and continuing through Friday. This system has a medium chance of tropical cyclone development during the next 48 hours and also during the next 7 days. Please refer to the latest NHC Tropical Weather Outlook at www.hurricanes.gov for more details. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A far eastern Atlantic tropical wave is along 20W, south of 22N, moving westward at 5-10 kt. Numerous moderate to isolated strong convection is observed from 10N to 17N and east of 22W. A central Atlantic tropical wave is along 57W, south of 19N, moving westward at 15-20 kt. No significant convection is noted near this wave. An eastern Caribbean tropical wave is along 68W, south of 20N, moving westward at 15 kt. There is no convection found near this wave. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic through the coast of Mauritania near 20N16W and continues southwestward to 10N30W and then to 05N46W. The ITCZ extends from 05N46W to 05N53W. Scattered moderate convection is found south of 10N and between 38W and 55W. ...GULF OF AMERICA... Please see the Special Features section for more information Invest 93L over northern Florida Elsewhere, scattered showers are noted in the SE Gulf waters and generally dry conditions in the remainder of the basin. A weak pressure gradient prevails across the Gulf of America, supporting moderate or weaker winds and slight to moderate seas. For the forecast, weak high pressure now centered across the NW Gulf extends a narrow ridge southeastward to the Yucatan Channel, and will meander about the NW Gulf through late Thu. A weak 1012 mb low pressure, Invest AL93, is inland across north Florida near 30N82.5W, and is forecast to move westward, and could emerge over the waters of the far northeastern and north-central Gulf, possibly approaching the coast of Louisiana on Thursday. Environmental conditions over the Gulf appear generally favorable for additional development, and a tropical depression could form if the system moves far enough offshore over the next couple of days. Regardless, scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms, some with strong gusty winds and locally rough seas, will accompany this system. ...CARIBBEAN SEA... Divergence aloft along with abundant moisture is supporting a few showers and isolated thunderstorms along Cuba and Jamaica and adjacent southern waters. High pressure north of the islands forces fresh to strong easterly winds and seas of 6-10 ft in the central Caribbean, with the strongest winds and highest seas occurring off northern Colombia. Moderate to fresh easterly breezes and moderate seas are prevalent in the eastern Caribbean. MOderate or weaker winds and slight seas are found elsewhere. For the forecast, the Central Atlantic high pressure will gradually build westward across Florida and into the eastern Gulf of America through Sat. Fresh to strong trades and rough seas over the south- central Caribbean will gradually expand across most of the central portions of the basin Wed through Sat morning as the Atlantic high pressure shifts westward to near 70W. These winds are expected to contract in aerial coverage late Sat through Sun. Fresh E winds are expected in the Gulf of Honduras Thu through Sat. Moderate to fresh winds and moderate seas are expected in the eastern Caribbean through the period while gentle to moderate winds and slight to moderate seas will prevail NW portions. A pair of tropical waves across the eastern Caribbean and Tropical Atlantic waters tonight will move across the basin through Fri, mainly producing active weather across the SW Caribbean waters Fri through Sat. ...ATLANTIC OCEAN... A cold front extends from 31N33W to 26N45W, followed by a dissipating cold front to 26N56W. Light showers are evident near this boundary. The rest of the basin is dominated by an expansive subtropical ridge centered over the central Atlantic. The pressure gradient between this ridge and lower pressures associated with Invest 93L over northern Florida sustain moderate to fresh SE winds and moderate seas west of 75W. Moderate to locally strong easterly winds and moderate seas are evident on recent satellite- derived wind data south of 25N and between 55W and 75W. Moderate to fresh winds and moderate seas are present between 35W and the Lesser Antilles and south of 20N. In the rest of the basin, moderate or weaker winds and moderate seas prevail. For the forecast west of 55W, 1026 mb high pressure is centered near 32N62.5W and extends a ridge westward to offshore the Georgia coast. 1012 mb low pressure, Invest AL93, is moving westward across north Florida tonight, and could emerge over the far northeastern and north- central Gulf Wed, possibly approaching the coast of Louisiana on Thu. High pressure over the central Atlantic will then build westward across the region and across Florida Wed through Sat in the wake of the low pressure. The pressure gradient between the Atlantic ridge building westward and the low pressure will support moderate to fresh SE to S winds across the Bahamas and through the NW zones through early Thu, then continue across the southern Bahamas through Fri night. $$ Delgado
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Page last modified: Wednesday, 16-Jul-2025 07:50:08 UTC