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Atlantic Tropical Weather Discussion (Text)



000
AXNT20 KNHC 291034
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1205 UTC Fri Mar 29 2024

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 
1030 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

...Central and East Atlantic Significant Swell Event...

A 1008 mb low pressure is centered near 27N57W. A surface trough 
extends from 30N56W to 18N54W to 13N65W. A broad ridge NE of the 
low/trough is inducing a tight pressure gradient in the area. 
Scatterometer data depicted an area of 20-30 kt E to SE winds 
covering roughly the waters N of 20N between 45W and 57W. Seas 
within this zone are 10 to 14 ft per altimeter data. Scattered 
showers and thunderstorms are also noted east of the trough from 
20N to 31N between 40W and 54W. 

Another area of seas of 12 to 19 ft is noted in the eastern 
Atlantic N of a front that extends from 31N09W to 24N27W to 
31N44W. Strong to near-gale NW winds are noted near N of the 
front in the Canary Islands area.

The surface low pressure will meander today and dissipate. The 
east Atlantic front will also continue to drift eastward and 
weaken. Winds and seas are expected to subside by Sat.

Please, read the latest High Seas Forecast at 
www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml, for more information.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough passes through the coastal plains of Sierra 
Leone near 08N13W to 01S25W. The ITCZ continues from 01S25W to  
01S38W. Clusters of moderate to strong convection are noted in the
vicinity of the boundaries E of 12N and W of 36W. 

...GULF OF MEXICO...

High pressure of 1023 mb located over NE Louisiana dominates the 
Gulf waters. Fresh to strong N winds and seas of 6 to 9 ft 
prevail across the SE Gulf waters in the wake of a cold front
currently extending across the western Caribbean. Moderate to
fresh winds prevail elsewhere across the basin, with seas of 3 to
5 ft. 

For the forecast, fresh to strong NE winds and moderate to rough 
seas over the SE Gulf will subside today as high pressure builds 
across the northern Gulf in the wake of a front currently over the
W Caribbean. The high pressure will shift E and support fresh E 
to SE winds across the western Gulf Sat through Mon. Another cold 
front may enter the western Gulf by Tue enhancing winds/seas.

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

A cold front stretches from central Cuba to eastern Honduras. 
Scattered showers are in the vicinity of the front. Fresh 
to strong NW to N winds are noted behind the front, with seas of 
8 to 9 ft in the Yucatan Channel, and 4 to 7 ft elsewhere W of 
the front. Meanwhile, light to gentle winds prevail across the 
rest of the Caribbean Sea. North swell that has been impacted the 
Caribbean Passages continue to produce seas up to 5 ft in the 
eastern Caribbean E of 68W. Otherwise, seas are 3 ft or less. 

For the forecast, fresh to strong winds and rough seas will 
continue to follow the front across the W Caribbean today. Winds 
and seas will diminish this afternoon. High pressure building 
north of the region in the wake of the front will support fresh to
strong NE winds in the lee of eastern Cuba and across the 
Windward Passage tonight through Sat evening. Winds and seas will 
then diminish by Sat night. Moderate N swell moving through the NE
Caribbean Passages and adjacent Tropical Atlantic waters will 
gradually subside through today. Strong trade winds and rough seas
will pulse off the coast of Colombia and the southern coast of 
Hispaniola this weekend as the high pressure settles NE of the 
Bahamas. 

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Please read the Special Features section for information on the
Significant Swell event. 

In the western Atlantic, a cold front extends from 31N72W to
22N78W. Strong to near-gale NW winds and seas of 8 to 11 
ft are noted in the wake of the front. Between this system and 
the low pres producing the swell event described above, surface 
ridging prevails, anchored by a 1027 mb high centered near 37N42W.
Winds are light to gentle under the influence of this high. Seas 
range from 5 to 8 ft between 60W-75W.

In the eastern Atlantic outside of the swell event area, high 
pressure extends across the remainder of the eastern and central 
Atlantic. Mainly gentle to moderate winds prevail with 6 to 9 ft 
seas. 

For the forecast W of 55W, the low pressure SE of Bermuda 
will meander then weaken to a trough and move slowly NE and east 
of 55W tonight. Large northerly swell dominates the waters E of 
50W and will gradually subside through Sat. An area of strong to 
near gale S to SE winds, rough to very rough seas, and scattered 
thunderstorms remains active to the east of a surface trough along
52W, N of 20N. The W Atlantic cold front will reach from Bermuda 
to eastern Cuba by midday today, from 31N55W to the Mona Passage 
by Sat morning, then move east of the area early Sun. Strong winds
and rough seas will follow this front, then diminish from west to
east as high pressure build eastward along roughly 29N, and 
settle NE of the Bahamas Sun and Mon. 

$$ 
ERA

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Page last modified: Friday, 29-Mar-2024 10:35:05 UTC