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Atlantic Tropical Weather Discussion

AXNT20 KNHC 081110

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
710 AM EDT Wed Jul 8 2020

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 
0910 UTC.


An area of low pressure centered inland over coastal South 
Carolina, continues to produce a large area of disorganized 
rainshowers across parts of the southeastern United States, with 
widespread showers and thunderstorms extending east and
northeastward for a few hundred miles over the adjacent offshore
waters. The low pressure center is expected to move east- 
northeastward toward the coast later today then turn 
northeastward near or just offshore of the Carolinas and the mid- 
Atlantic states on Thursday and Friday. A tropical or subtropical
cyclone may form during this time if the low pressure center 
moves over water. The low center is expected to produce locally 
heavy rainfall that may cause flash flooding in parts of the 
southeastern and mid-Atlantic states during the next few days. 
The chance of formation into a tropical cyclone, during the next 
48 hours, is medium. Please see the Tropical Weather Outlook, at, for more details.


An Atlantic Ocean tropical wave is along 35W/36W from 19N 
southward, moving westward 10-15 knots. Saharan air and
an associated low level wind surge have moved well ahead of
this wave, and can be seen from 10N to 22N, across the
Atlantic Ocean to the Lesser Antilles. The monsoon trough is
lifting northward behind this wave, with widely scattered moderate
convection noted from 10N to 15N from just offshore of the Cabo
Verde Islands to 33W. Scattered moderate to strong convection is
ahead of the wave from 03N to 09N between 35W and 43W.

A Caribbean Sea tropical wave is along 20N66W to 14N67W to 05N69W,
moving westward at 15 knots. Scattered moderate convection is
moving WNW across Puerto Rico, the southern Mona Passage and 
waters offshore of Hispaniola from 15N to 18N between 67W and 71W.
This convection is moving into the rear flanks of Saharan air
ahead of this wave, which is providing favorable conditions for
squalls and strong wind gusts. An energetic northern portion of 
this wave raced quickly across Puerto Rico and the adjacent waters
and is moving to the NE of the Turks and Caicos Islands. 

A Caribbean Sea tropical wave is along 75W, from 15N southward, 
moving westward 10 to 15 knots. Scattered moderate convection is
occurring across interior Colombia, with scattered to locally 
numerous moderate to strong convection is ahead of the wave from 
11.5N southward across Panama between 76W and 80W. Conditions 
remain favorable for strong convection across this region ahead of
the wave today. 

A Caribbean Sea tropical wave is along 84W/85W, from 18N 
southward across Central America, moving west 10 to 15 knots.
Scattered moderate to strong convection is behind the wave from
12.5N south and southwestward to coastal sections of Central
America. Condition remain favorable for strong convection to occur
with and behind this wave today.


The monsoon trough passes through the coastal areas of Guinea-
Bissau near 12N16W to 13N24W. The ITCZ continues from 13N24W, to 
12N29W, to 05N46W, and to 07N58W. Scattered to locally numerous 
moderate to strong convection has moved off the W coast of Africa,
ahead of the next approaching tropical wave, from 06N to 12N east
of 20W to the coast. from 03.5N to 08.5N between 47W and 58W.


A surface ridge extends along 26N/27N, from the upper Texas Gulf 
coast to Florida Everglades. Widely scattered moderate convection
is seen across the Straits of Florida and Florida Keys. Persistent
convection recently across the NE Gulf has shifted NE and inland.
Anticyclonic wind flow continues across the basin, with fresh SE
to S winds generally W of 93W, where seas are 3-5 ft. Moderate
westerly winds continue across the NE Gulf and Big Bend region.

Surface high pressure will remain centered over the Gulf through 
the weekend with the high center fluctuating between the NW and NE
basin. This will allow for the continuation of moderate to fresh 
return flow west of 90W and moderate westerly winds across NE 
portions of the basin. Scattered showers and isolated 
thunderstorms is forecast for the NE portions E basin Fri and Sat 
as the tail end of a frontal system moves across the area. 


A tropical wave is moving westward toward the central Caribbean
from the Mona Passage to western Venezuela. Scattered convection
described above is approaching the southern coast of Hispaniola
and will move inland later this morning. Strong tradewinds are
south of 13N offshore of Colombia where seas are 7-8 ft. Fresh to
locally strong ESE winds are moving into the NE Caribbean behind
the tropical wave. 

Fresh to strong tradewinds will continue across the south- 
central Caribbean through tonight, then increase to just below 
gale force Thu and Fri nights as the tropical wave moves west of
70W. Strong winds will pulse at night in the Gulf of Honduras Fri
night through the weekend. Another strong tropical wave will 
reach the tropical N Atlc waters Sat and move across the E 
Caribbean Sat night and Sun.


An upper level cyclonic circulation center is near 33N35W. Upper 
level cyclonic wind flow covers the Atlantic Ocean from 22N 
northward between 23W and 46W. Active convection continues across
the NW waters N of 30N associated with the broad low level
pressure across the SE U.S. Moderate S to SW winds prevail across
the offshore waters there W of 75W. Elsewhere across the Atlantic,
stable conditions prevail. A large zone of Saharan air dominates
the tropical Atlantic from the Cabo Verde Islands to just E of the
Lesser Antilles. Fresh ENE tradewinds generally prevail across the
Atlantic S of 18N, Where seas are 6-8 ft.

The northern portion of a strong tropical wave moving across the 
Mona Passage and the adjacent waters will be accompanied by fresh 
to strong winds, building seas as it moves across the SE waters 
and into the SE Bahamas and adjacent waters to the east today and
tonight. Surface ridging will strengthen across the region later 
today through Sat. Moderate to fresh southerly winds will affect 
most of the area N of 23N Wed through Sat night. Low pressure 
across the SE U.S. will move NE and approach the coast of the 
Carolinas tonight through Thu, dragging a trough across the 
northern Florida offshore waters. Another strong tropical wave 
will reach the SE waters Sun.