000
AXNT20 KNHC 251036
TWDAT 

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1215 UTC Fri Jul 25 2025

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 
1000 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A tropical wave is analyzed over the eastern Atlantic near 20W, 
from 17N southward moving westward at 10 to 15 kt. Isolated 
moderate convection is depicted just west of the wave axis.

An central Atlantic tropical wave is near 40W, from 18N 
southward, moving west at 10 to 15 kt. No significant convection
is active with this wave.

A central Atlantic tropical wave is near 56W, from 18N southward,
moving at 20 to 25 kt. Scattered showers and thunderstorms are 
active from 10N to 14N between 54W and 57W.

A Caribbean tropical wave is analyzed near 76W, from 19N 
southward moving west at 25 kt. Scattered moderate convection is 
noted from 15N to 19N between 75W and 78W. 

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... 

A monsoon trough extends from 16N16W to 09N30W to 12N40W to
10N52W. Convection is described in the Tropical Wave section
above.

The eastern end of the East Pacific monsoon trough extends from
10N76W to 10N83W. Scattered moderate convection is ongoing south
of this monsoon trough.

...GULF OF AMERICA...

Buoy and platform observations indicate a weak 1012 mb low 
pressure center is near 27N91W, with a trough reaching from the
low pressure to 25N95W. A trough is evident off the western coast
of the Yucatan Peninsula, and weak 1019 mb high pressure is
centered over the southeastern Gulf off western Cuba near 23N84W.
Moderate S winds and 3 to 4 ft seas are noted over the north- 
central Gulf east of the low pressure. Moderate E winds are noted
over the Straits of Florida and the western coast of Yucatan, 
supporting 3 to 4 ft seas. Gentle breezes are noted elsewhere with
slight seas.  

A surface trough curves southwestward from 29N89W to 26N95W. 
Numerous showers are depicted north of 23.5N between 90W and 96W.
While, scattered moderate convection is found north of the trough.  
Scattered moderate convection is depicted over the NE Gulf as 
afternoon convection drifts NW from the Big Bend of Florida area. 
A surface trough over the eastern Bay of Campeche is supporting
scattered moderate convection over the area. Elsewhere, a 1015 mb
high is dominating the southwestern Gulf. Gentle to moderate 
SE winds and seas of 2 to 3 ft are evident across the NE Gulf.
Northeast moderate winds and seas 1 to 2 ft prevail over the
eastern Bay of Campeche. Light to gentle winds and seas of 1 to 2
ft prevail elsewhere.

For the forecast, slow development of the low pressure over the
northwest Gulf over the next day or so is possible while it moves
generally west- northwestward across the northern Gulf. By this 
weekend, the system is likely to move inland over southeastern 
Texas or western Louisiana, ending its chances for development. 
Elsewhere, moderate to fresh northeast to east winds are forecast 
along the Yucatan Peninsula each afternoon and evening as a trough
develops inland daily and shifts westward over the Bay of 
Campeche at night. 

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

An upper-level trough is supporting scattered moderate convection
over the northwestern Caribbean. Refer to the Monsoon Trough/ITCZ
and Tropical Waves sections for additional convection in the 
Caribbean Sea. The pressure gradient between the Bermuda High and
a 1010 mb Colombian low is leading to fresh to strong trades in 
the central basin and along the Windward Passage. Seas 7 to 9 ft 
prevail across the central Caribbean. Moderate to fresh easterly 
winds and seas 5 to 7 ft prevail over the eastern Caribbean. 
Moderate or weaker winds and seas 2 to 5 ft prevail elsewhere.

For the forecast, the pressure gradient between Atlantic high pressure
and the Colombian low will support fresh to strong winds over
the central Caribbean into Sat. Fresh to strong northeast winds 
in the Windward Passage are expected tonight through Sat. 
Elsewhere, moderate to fresh winds will prevail.

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A stationary front extends from 1013 low pressure over the north-
central Atlantic near 37N47W to 27N60W to 1018 mb low pressure
near 35N73W. Scattered showers and thunderstorms are active along
the front. Weak ridging prevails elsewhere north of 20N across the
Atlantic, with tropical waves dominating farther south. Fresh SW
winds and 4 to 6 ft seas are active east of the front, north of
26N to 45W. Fresh to strong E winds are pulsing on the north coast
of Hispaniola, with 6 to 8 ft seas. Moderate to fresh SE winds and
3 to 5 ft are noted elsewhere across the Bahamas. Mostly moderate
E winds are noted elsewhere south of 20N, with 4 to 6 ft seas, and
gentle breezes elsewhere north of 20N with 3 to 5 ft seas in mixed
swell. 

For the forecast west of 55W, high pressure will dominate the weather pattern
across the forecast region, supporting fresh to strong winds north
of Hispaniola and the approaches to the Windward Passage through 
Sat. Elsewhere, gentle to moderate winds along with mostly 
moderate seas are expected.

$$
Christensen