861 
AXNT20 KNHC 311757
TWDAT 

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1815 UTC Sat May 31 2025

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 
1500 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

An eastern Atlantic tropical wave is just off the Africa coast near
17W from 17N southward across Dakar, and moving W around 10 kt. 
Scattered moderate convection is noted from 07N to 11N between 
14W and 21W.

A central Caribbean tropical wave is near 78W from 15N southward
across eastern Panama, and moving W around 15 kt. Widely scattered
showers and isolated thunderstorms are occurring from the coast of
Panama and northwestern Colombia to 15N.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... 

A monsoon trough enters the Atlantic along the coastal border of
Senegal and Gambia, then curves southwestward to 06N24W. An ITCZ 
continues from 06N24W across 05N35W to north of Belem, Brazil at 
01N45W. Scattered moderate convection is noted near the monsoon
trough from 03N to 07N between 21W and 24W. Similar convection is
up to 120 nm north and 140 nm south of the ITCZ.

...GULF OF AMERICA...

A weakening cold front at southern Florida runs westward to near 
27N91W. Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms are evident 
up to 75 nm south, and 100 nm north of this boundary. Meanwhile, 
a surface trough is triggering isolated thunderstorms along the 
Mexico coast in the western Bay of Campeche. Gentle to locally 
moderate NE to NW winds are seen across the northern Gulf. Gentle
to moderate S to SW to NW winds dominate the southern Gulf, 
including the Bay Campeche. Seas are 1 to 3 ft across the entire 
Gulf.

For the forecast, the cold front will continue to drift southward
and then stall and dissipate through early Sun. Moderate to fresh
E to NE winds are expected each afternoon and evening north of 
the Yucatan Peninsula and into the eastern Bay of Campeche as a 
trough develops daily and moves westward. High pressure will build
in the wake of the front with gentle to moderate breezes and 
slight seas across most of the Gulf through early next week. 
Expect moderate to fresh SE winds and building seas across the 
western and south-central Gulf Tue and Wed between a trough over 
northern Mexico and high pressure over the Carolinas. 

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

Convergent trade winds are triggering isolated thunderstorms near
Jamaica. Refer to the Tropical Wave section for additional weather
in the Caribbean Sea. A subtropical ridge near 25N is sustaining a
trade-wind regime for the Caribbean Basin. Fresh easterly winds
and seas of 6 to 8 ft are present at the south-central basin.
Light to gentle winds and seas at 2 to 5 ft exist at the
northwestern basin, and near Costa Rica and Panama. Moderate to
fresh ENE to ESE winds and 4 to 6 ft seas prevail for the rest of
the basin.

For the forecast, fresh to strong E winds and moderate to rough 
seas will expand across most of the Caribbean through the middle 
of next week. 

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A cold front runs southwestward from off the U.S. Mid-Atlantic
coast across 31N74W to near West Palm Beach, Florida. Scattered 
moderate convection is occurring north of 27N between 70W and the 
Florida coast. At the central Atlantic, a stationary front curves 
southwestward from a 1020 mb low near 31N46W across 31N45W to 
25N59W. Scattered showers are noted near and up to 80 nm south of
this boundary, and farther east from 28N to 31N between 35W and 
the stationary front. Fresh to strong SW and W winds with 6 to 9 
ft seas are seen near and up to 120 nm northwest of the cold 
front. Otherwise, moderate to fresh S to SW to W winds and seas at
4 to 6 ft dominate north of 20N between 61W and the Florida 
coast/Bahamas. Gentle to moderate NE to SE to S winds and seas of 
4 to 5 ft are present north of 20N between 35W and 61W. For the 
tropical Atlantic from 05N to 20N between 35W and the Lesser 
Antilles, moderate to fresh NE to ESE winds and 6 to 8 ft seas are
evident. Light to gentle winds and seas at 4 to 6 ft prevail for 
the rest of the Atlantic Basin west of 35W.

For the forecast west of 55W, fresh to strong SW winds and rough 
seas will continue ahead of the cold front moving into the waters
off northeast Florida today. These winds and seas will diminish 
through Sun as the front stalls and dissipates. A second weak 
front will move off the southeast U.S. coast Mon and reach from 
Bermuda to east-central Florida by late Tue, then dissipate as it
moves eastward through midweek. High pressure will build in the 
wake of the front with fresh to strong winds off the north coast 
of Hispaniola late Wed.

$$

Chan