000
AXNT20 KNHC 211758
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1815 UTC Mon Jul 21 2025

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 
1800 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

An eastern Atlantic tropical wave has its axis near 32W from 05-17N.
It is moving westward at 10 to 15 kt. Scattered showers and 
isolated thunderstorms are seen from 09-15N between 25-33W.

A central Atlantic tropical wave has its axis near 49W from
03-16N, moving westward at 10-15 kt. Scattered showers and
isolated thunderstorms are observed from 08-16N between 44-53W.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... 

The monsoon trough axis enters the Atlantic through the coastal 
border of Mauritania near 17N16W, then runs southwestward and
westward to 13N27W, then southwestward to 09N34W, and then
generally westward to 10N53W. Scattered moderate and isolated
strong convection is seen from 07-15N between the west coast of
Africa and 23W. Farther west along the monsoon trough between
35-53W, scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms are along and
generally within 250 nm of the monsoon trough.

The eastern end of the East Pacific monsoon trough is triggering 
scattered moderate and isolated strong convection in the far SW
Caribbean, generally S of 12N and W of 80W. 
 
...GULF OF AMERICA...

The interactions between an upper-level trough dropping southward
toward the region and a surface trough over the FL Peninsula are
resulting in scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms in
portions of the far NE Gulf. Scattered showers and isolated
thunderstorms are also occurring in the Bay of Campeche as a
surface trough moves across the area. 

For the forecast, relatively weak high pressure will prevail 
across the basin through the middle of the week producing gentle 
to moderate winds along with slight to moderate seas. Fresh to 
locally strong northeast to east winds will pulse along the 
Yucatan Peninsula each afternoon and evening through Wed as a 
trough develops inland daily and shifts westward over the Bay of 
Campeche at night. Looking ahead, winds may increase to fresh 
speeds across the NE and north-central Gulf by Thu as a weak area 
of low pressure possibly moves across the northern Gulf. 
Widespread showers and thunderstorms are expected over most of the
eastern and north-central Gulf waters starting Tue. 

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

Please see the Monsoon Trough/ITCZ section for details on
convection in the SW Caribbean. 

The pressure gradient between high pressure north of the region
and the Colombia Low is forcing fresh to strong E to NE winds
across the central and SW Caribbean, along with seas of 7-10 ft.
Moderate to fresh trades and seas of 4-7 ft prevail across the 
eastern and west-central Caribbean, while moderate or weaker winds
and seas of 2-5 ft prevail in the NW Caribbean. Otherwise, a 1019
mb high maintains gentle to moderate winds and seas of 1-3 ft
across much of the basin. 

For the forecast, the pressure gradient between high pressure 
located north of the area and the Colombian low will support fresh
to strong winds over the south-central Caribbean through the 
middle of the week. Fresh to locally strong northeast winds and 
moderate to rough seas are expected to begin again in the Windward
Passage starting Tue night and continue through late in the week.
A well- defined tropical wave, Invest AL94, is expected to move 
into the Tropical N Atlantic Tue through Wed, likely reaching the 
Lesser Antilles by Wed morning, then move across the eastern 
Caribbean and the eastern part of the central Caribbean Wed night 
through Thu night. This wave is likely to enhance shower and 
thunderstorm activity over these waters in addition to being 
accompanied by fresh to strong trades near its northern portion. 
Scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms related to a weak 
low pressure is likely to precede the wave. 

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Infrared satellite imagery shows an area of scattered moderate
convection north of 29N between 75-80W moving southward, 
associated with an upper level trough off the eastern US coast. To
the east, an upper-level low is spinning along 70W, resulting in
scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms occurring in an area
from 22-29N between 67-75W. All other convection in the Atlantic
is associated with tropical waves or the monsoon trough. 

High pressure of 1027 mb centered near 34N43W extends a ridge
across much of the tropical Atlantic. Recent scatterometer data
indicate moderate to fresh trades occurring in an area from 12-23N
between 45-61W, along with seas of 5-7 ft. Moderate to fresh SE
wind and seas of 5-7 ft are also occurring S of 05N between
35-50W. Moderate to locally fresh NE winds and seas of 4-6 ft are
also occurring in an area from 20-30N and E of 20W, with the
strongest winds between the Canary Islands. The remainder of the
Atlantic is seeing moderate or weaker trades and seas of 3-5 ft
prevail.

For the forecast west of 55W, high pressure over the area is 
maintaining a gentle to moderate anticyclonic flow pattern along 
with mostly moderate seas. Fresh to locally strong winds and 
moderate seas are expected to begin again just north of 
Hispaniola, including approaches to the Windward Passage, starting
Tue night and continue through the rest of the week. Winds will 
diminish slightly into Tue evening as high pressure weakens over 
the western Atlantic, and a frontal boundary moves to over the 
offshore waters of northeastern Florida. This front will then 
stall, with low pressure possibly forming along it. 

$$
Adams