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Atlantic Tropical Weather Discussion

AXNT20 KNHC 240455

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1255 AM EDT Wed Apr 24 2019

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 
0515 UTC.


The monsoon trough extends from Sierra Leone near 09N13W to near 
03N19W. The ITCZ continues from 03N19W to 00N30W to the coast of 
Brazil near 01S45W. Scattered moderate to isolated strong
convection is S of the monsoon trough from 01N-10N between 01W-
06W. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is along the
monsoon trough from 01N-05N between 12W-19W. Scattered moderate
convection is S of the ITCZ from 01S-07S between 20W-36W. Isolated
moderate convection is N of the ITCZ from 01S-04N between 40W-51W.  


Scattered showers are over the NW Gulf of Mexico N of 26N. A 1019
mb high is centered over N Florida near 29N82W. 05-20 kt SE
surface winds are over the Gulf of Mexico with weakest winds over
the NE Gulf, and strongest winds along the coast of the Yucatan

High pressure will prevail across the area through Wednesday, 
then retreat eastward ahead of a cold front moving into the 
northwest Gulf by Thursday. The front will reach the far eastern 
Gulf by Friday evening, where it will become stationary and weaken
to a trough Saturday. Scattered showers and thunderstorms are 
expected with this frontal system. 


A 1008 mb low is centered over Lake Maracaibo Venezuela near
10N72W. Widely scattered moderate convection is over N Colombia
and NW Venezuela. Scattered showers are over the S Caribbean S of
12N and E of 74W. More scattered showers are over the Mona Channel
and E Hispaniola. 10-20 kt tradewinds are over the Caribbean Sea
with strongest winds along the coast of N Colombia. In the upper
levels, strong subsidence covers the entire Caribbean Sea. 

Moderate to fresh trade winds will prevail across the south 
central and eastern Caribbean through tonight then slowly diminish
thereafter as high pressure north of the area weakens. A cold 
front may move into the northwestern Caribbean from the Gulf of 
Mexico by the end of the week into next weekend. 


A dissipating stationary front is over the W Atlantic from 31N67W
to 25N70W. Scattered showers are within 60 nm of the front. A 1013
mb low is centered over the central Atlantic near 27N52W.
Scattered moderate convection is well E of the low from 27N-31N
between 42W-46W. 

The stationary front will dissipate tonight. The central Atlantic
low will move to 31N50W over the next 24 hours. The next cold 
front will move off the southeastern United States coast by 
Saturday. Scattered showers and thunderstorms, some with gusty 
winds, are expected to affect much of the area north of 27N Friday
through late Saturday.

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