674 
AXNT20 KNHC 061042
TWDAT 

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1215 UTC Fri Jun 6 2025

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 
1030 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

An eastern Atlantic tropical wave has its axis along 39W S of 
12N, moving westward at 10-15 kt. Scattered showers and 
thunderstorms are depicted from 03N to 07N between 35W and 42W.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... 

The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic through the coast of 
Africa near 12N16W and continues southwestward to 08N25W, where 
it transitions to the ITCZ to 05N36W. The ITCZ resumes W of a  
tropical wave near 05N41W to near 06N51W. Scattered moderate 
convection is within 60 nm of the ITCZ west of 31W. 

...GULF OF AMERICA...

Weak high pressure extends from the western Atlantic to the
eastern Gulf, while a surface trough is analyzed from 22N89W to 
18N94W. Scattered moderate convection is depicted along the trough
and south of 20N. The pressure gradient in place is allowing for 
light to gentle S to SW winds over the eastern Gulf, and for 
mostly gentle to moderate E to SE winds elsewhere, except for 
fresh E to SE winds W of the Yucatan Peninsula. Moderate seas 
prevail across the basin.

satellite imagery reveals that skies are hazy over the Florida 
peninsula and the eastern Gulf due to the presence of the Saharan 
Air Layer (SAL). 

For the forecast, Atlantic high pressure will extend a ridge into the
eastern Gulf through Sun, then build modestly westward into the
central Gulf through early next week. Moderate to fresh E to NE 
winds are expected each afternoon and evening north of the Yucatan
Peninsula and into the eastern Bay of Campeche as a trough 
develops daily and moves westward. Expect moderate to fresh SE 
winds across the western and south-central Gulf through Mon 
between a trough over northern Mexico and Atlantic high pressure.  

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

The pressure gradient between a weak high pressure over the 
western Atlantic and lower pressures in the southern Caribbean 
and in northern S America is allowing for fresh to strong trades 
across the south central portion of the basin and the Gulf of 
Honduras, while moderate to fresh winds prevail elsewhere. Rough
seas prevail over the central section of the basin, while moderate
seas are noted elsewhere. satellite imagery reveals scattered to 
numerous moderate convection S of 13N and west of 75W due to the 
eastern end of the E Pacific monsoon trough. 

For the forecast, weak high pressure N of the region and centered
NW of Bermuda will shift NE and into the N central Atlantic 
through the weekend. The Atlantic ridge will then build SW into 
the Bahamas and S Florida late Sat through early next week. This 
pattern will lead to fresh to strong trades and moderate to rough 
seas across most of the central basin and Gulf of Honduras through
this evening, diminish slightly on Sat, then increase across most
of the basin Sat night into early next week.

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A tropical wave is analyzed over the basin. Refer to the section
above for details.

A stationary front extends from near 31N59W to 27N66W. Water 
vapor imagery depicts a broad upper-level trough that is over the
central Atlantic N of about 20N and between 53W and 57W. High 
pressure prevails elsewhere over the tropical and subtropical 
waters as a 1030 mb high center is well N of the area near 
38N40W. The pressure gradient in place is supporting moderate to 
fresh trades and moderate to rough seas over most of Atlantic S 
of 20N and east of 55W. Elsewhere, winds are moderate with 
moderate seas.

satellite imagery continues to exhibit an extensive outbreak 
of the Saharan Air Layer (SAL) that covers the vast majority of
the eastern Atlantic. A thin swath of this SAL outbreak, 
has migrated westward to the northern Caribbean and to some 
areas of the western Atlantic, including the Florida peninsula. 

For the forecast west of 55W, the stationary front SE of Bermuda 
will drift northward and dissipate through tonight. Weak high 
pressure NW of the front will shift NE and into the central 
Atlantic through Sat. Atlantic high pressure will then build 
modestly W-SW into the Bahamas and S Florida Sun through Tue. 
Expect fresh to strong winds to pulse each afternoon and evening 
offshore of Hispaniola early next week. 

$$
ERA