000
AXNT20 KNHC 181013
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1215 UTC Sun May 18 2025

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 
1000 UTC.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... 

The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic near 11N16W, then curves 
southwestward to 06N22W. The ITCZ continues from that point to 
02N51. Scattered moderate to strong convection is occurring 
across the nearshore waters of western Africa, north of 03N and 
E of 16W. Scattered moderate convection is prevails within 90 nm
on either side of the boundaries and W of 19W.

...GULF OF AMERICA...

Broad surface ridging extends from the central Atlantic westward
to central Florida and then weakly across the eastern Gulf. A 
1017 mb high is analyzed near 27N83W. The pressure between this 
ridge and low pressure across central Mexico is supporting 
moderate to fresh E to SE winds across most of the south and 
southwest Gulf, and moderate SE to S winds across northwest 
portions. Latest scatterometer data captured fresh to strong E to
NE winds across the waters off the NW Yucatan Peninsula. Moderate
seas prevail across the basin. No convection is noted over the 
basin at this time. Smoke from agricultural fires over 
southeastern Mexico continues to create hazy conditions at the 
west-central and southwestern Gulf, including the Bay of Campeche.

For the forecast, moderate to fresh SE winds and moderate seas 
will prevail across the western Gulf through Tue. Pulsing fresh 
to strong E winds are likely each afternoon and evening through 
Tue night, north of the Yucatan Peninsula as a trough develops 
daily and drifts westward. Smoke from agricultural fires in 
southeastern Mexico will sustain hazy conditions at the west-
central and southwestern Gulf most likely through the period. 

...CARIBBEAN SEA... 

High pressure of 1024 mb centered near 30N44W extends a broad 
ridge westward to 60W, and then become a narrow ridge westward to 
central Florida. A deep-layered upper trough is over the Atlantic 
along about 64W-65W and N of 20N. A surface trough is analyzed
along 63W, where the upper trough is supporting scattered 
moderate to strong convection along and E of the surface trough 
extending northeastward across the Leeward Islands and into the 
adjacent Atlantic. Moderate to fresh trade winds prevail across 
the basin east of 65W, through the Windward Passage, and across 
the Gulf of Honduras, where seas are moderate. Gentle to moderate
winds are elsewhere with slight to moderate seas.

For the forecast, the ridge will remain north of the basin 
through Mon to generally maintain current conditions. Fresh to 
strong E to SE winds will pulse in the Gulf of Honduras during 
late afternoons and nights through the period. Moderate to fresh 
trades and rough seas will persist over the Atlantic waters near 
and east of the Lesser Antilles through tonight. Increasing trades
along with building seas are expected across the eastern part of 
the basin Sun night. These conditions will shift westward across 
the central and southwestern basin through early this week. 

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

High pressure of 1024 mb centered near 30N44W extends a broad 
ridge westward to 60W, and then become a narrow ridge westward to 
central Florida. A deep-layered upper trough is over the Atlantic 
along about 64W-65W and from 20N to 27N. Scattered moderate 
isolated strong thunderstorms are occurring along and east of the 
trough to 59W, supported by the upper trough, from the Leeward 
Islands north to 27N. West of the surface trough, gentle to 
moderate anticyclonic winds prevail, with slight seas. East of 
the trough, the ridge is supporting fresh to strong easterly 
trade winds from the Cabo Verde Islands to the Lesser Antilles. 
Moderate seas prevail across this area. An old frontal trough is 
seen lingering from 31N15W to 22N23W, with fresh NE winds to the 
north of this feature, and seas 6 to 9 ft. Farther east, fresh to  
strong northerly winds are along the African west coast north of 
14N. 

For the forecast west of 55W, the mid to upper level trough and 
its surface related trough that extends from 27N64W to 24N65W to 
20N65W is resulting in unsettled weather conditions, moderate to 
fresh winds and moderate seas, primarily over the waters S of 28N 
between 58W and 63W. These conditions should gradually improve 
through early Mon as the system shift NE. The broad high pressure
extending southwestward from the central Atlantic to Florida will
support gentle to moderate anticyclonic winds W of 63W. Moderate 
to fresh northeast to east winds will pulse north of Hispaniola 
and in the Windward Passage each night into next week. In the long
term, fresh to strong southwesterly winds and building seas are 
expected east of northeastern Florida and northeast of the Bahamas
around the middle of the week, in response to a late season cold 
front that will move off the southeastern United States coast. 
This front may be accompanied by scattered showers and 
thunderstorms.

$$
ERA