000
AXNT20 KNHC 300855
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1215 UTC Wed Jul 30 2025

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 
0855 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

An eastern Atlantic tropical wave is along 29W, south of 19N, 
moving westward at 15-20 kt. Scattered moderate convection is 
observed from 10N to 13N and between 28W and 32W. 

An central Atlantic tropical wave is along 45W, south of 17N, 
moving westward at 10-15 kt. No significant convection is evident
near this tropical wave.

An central Caribbean tropical wave is along 72W, south of 20N, 
moving westward at 10 kt. No significant convection is depicted at
this time in association with this wave. 

A central Caribbean tropical wave is along 82W, south of 20N, 
moving westward at 10 kt. Scattered moderate convection is evident
from 18N to 22N between 80W and 85W.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... 

The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic through the coast of
Mauritania near 20N16W and continues southwestward to 11N30W to 
09N48W. Scattered moderate convection is noted from 07N to 10N 
and between 35W and 45W.

...GULF OF AMERICA...

A mid to upper level trough reaches from the south-central Gulf to
the northeast Gulf. Upper level dynamics west of the trough is
supporting numerous showers and thunderstorms off the northern 
Gulf coast, particularly off the western Florida Panhandle to 
south- central Louisiana. Scattered showers and thunderstorms are
also active over the far southwest Gulf, west of a trough off the
western coast of the Yucatan Peninsula. At the surface, a weak 
pressure gradient sustains light to gentle winds and slight seas 
across the basin. However, mariners should expect stronger winds 
and higher seas near the strongest convection. 

For the forecast, fairly weak high pressure will dominate the basin
through the period, supporting mostly gentle to moderate breezes
and slight to moderate seas. 

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

Numerous thunderstorms are active along the monsoon trough over
the far southwestern Caribbean along the coast from Panama to
southeast Nicaragua. A few thunderstorms are pulsing between
Jamaica and eastern Cuba, and near the Cayman Islands. A few
showers are also active across the Windward Islands in the trade
wind flow. Drier conditions are prevalent in the remainder of the
basin. The pressure gradient between the subtropical ridge north 
of the islands and lower pressures in northern South America force
fresh to strong easterly trade winds over much of the central 
Caribbean. Moderate to locally rough seas are noted in these 
waters. Moderate to locally fresh easterly breezes and moderate 
seas are found in the eastern Caribbean, while light to gentle 
winds and slight to moderate seas prevail elsewhere.

For the forecast, the pressure gradient between Atlantic high pressure
and lower pressure over Colombia will continue to support fresh 
winds and rough seas over the central Caribbean through Sat, with 
winds pulsing to strong off the coast of Colombia. Generally 
moderate winds and seas will prevail elsewhere. A tropical wave 
accompanied by scattered showers and thunderstorms is expected to 
move through the tropical Atlantic waters Fri through early Sat 
and through the eastern Caribbean later on Sat and through Sun, 
reaching the central Caribbean late Sun.

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A surface trough extends from 30N55W to 1016 mb low pressure near
25N65W to north of Hispaniola to 22N69W. Farther west, 1020 mb
high pressure is centered near 25N70W. This pattern is supporting
mostly gentle breezes and 2 to 3 ft seas west of 65W. Farther
east, the central and eastern Atlantic are under the influence of
an expansive subtropical ridge centered by 1030 mb high pressure
north of the Azores. The pressure gradient between this ridge and
lower pressures in northwest Africa sustain moderate to fresh 
N-NE winds and moderate seas north of 20N and east of 35W. Mainly 
moderate easterly winds and moderate seas are occurring south of 
25N and west of 35W. Elsewhere, moderate or weaker winds and 
slight to moderate seas are prevalent.

For the forecast west of 55W, high pressure will dominate the weather pattern
across the forecast through the period, supporting mostly gentle
to moderate winds and slight to moderate seas over the region.
The northern portion of a tropical wave may bring fresh to
locally strong east to southeast winds and rough seas north of 
the Leeward Islands Fri through Sat night, then possibly to the 
waters north of Hispaniola and east of the southern Bahamas Sun 
and Sun night.

$$
Christensen