768 
AXNT20 KNHC 281703
TWDAT 

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1815 UTC Wed May 28 2025

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 
1700 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A central Atlantic tropical wave has its axis along 51W from 02N 
to 14N, moving westward at 10 to 15 kt. Scattered to numerous 
thunderstorms are noted S of 11N between 47W-58W.

A W Caribbean tropical wave has its axis along 78W south of 18N, moving
westward at about 15 kt. No significant convection is presently 
over the Caribbean waters. Decreasing scattered showers and 
isolated thunderstorms are over some sections of eastern Panama.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... 

The monsoon trough axis enters the Atlantic through 16N16W to 
07N22W, where it transitions to the ITCZ and continues to 06N45W.
Scattered moderate to strong convection is noted from 02N to 07N 
east of 32W.

...GULF OF AMERICA...

A surface trough is analyzed over the Bay of Campeche along 94W. 
Abundant moisture prevails across the NW portion of the basin, 
that paired with the leading edge of an upper level trough over 
the area, are producing scattered to numerous moderate to strong 
convection N of 25N and W of 92W. 

A SE flow prevails across the basin, with moderate to fresh speeds
W of 90W and gentle to moderate E of 90W. Moderate seas prevail
across the whole area. 

For the forecast, fresh to strong E to NE winds will pulse each 
evening through Fri north of the Yucatan Peninsula and in the 
eastern Bay of Campeche, as a trough develops daily and drifts 
westward. Elsewhere, moderate to fresh S to SE winds and moderate
seas will occur across the central and western Gulf, while gentle
to moderate SE winds and slight seas will prevail in the eastern 
basin, as high pressure persists over the northeastern Gulf. Smoke
from agricultural fires in southeastern Mexico will maintain hazy
conditions across the Bay of Campeche and western Gulf through 
the end of the week. A cold front is slated to enter the basin 
Fri night into Sat, leading to moderate to fresh N winds in the 
wake of the front in the northern basin. 

...CARIBBEAN SEA... 

Please refer to the section above for details on the tropical 
wave moving across the basin.

Surface ridging persists N of the area. The pressure gradient 
between this ridge and the Colombian low is supporting fresh to 
strong E winds over the south-central Caribbean, as well as in the
Gulf of Honduras as were highlighted in latest ASCAT satellite 
data passes. Moderate to fresh E winds prevail elsewhere. Rough seas
prevail over the south- central Caribbean, and moderate seas are
noted elsewhere. Shallow moisture embedded in the trade wind 
flow, is moving across the eastern portion of the basin resulting
in scattered quick-moving showers mainly E of 74W.

For the forecast, fresh to strong E winds and rough seas will 
occur across the southwestern through central Caribbean through 
this weekend as a strong pressure gradient prevails between the 
Colombian low and high pressure to the north. Winds may reach 
near-gale force offshore of northwestern Colombia late tonight. 
Elsewhere, pulsing fresh to strong E to SE winds are expected in 
the Gulf of Honduras through Fri. Looking ahead, a tropical wave 
analyzed along 52W will traverse westward across the eastern and 
central Caribbean through this weekend, producing numerous 
thunderstorms surrounding the wave. 

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Please refer to the section above for details on the tropical 
wave moving across the basin.

High pressure of 1031 mb located in the vicinity of the Azores 
dominates the Atlantic forecast waters, with its associated ridge 
extending southwestward toward the Bahamas and Florida. Light to 
gentle winds are along the ridge axis, with gentle to moderate E 
winds elsewhere N of 25N and W of 30W. Latest ASCAT satellite 
data passes show moderate to fresh E winds S of 25N and W of 30W.
Slight to moderate seas are N of 25N, and moderate seas prevail S
of 25N. A cold front has pushed southward to extend along 30N 
between 62W and 74W. The stationary front extends northeastward 
to a weak 1020 mb low centered near 32N56W. No significant 
convection is occurring with this front.

Over the eastern part of the area, the pressure gradient between 
the aforementioned ridge and lower pressures in W Africa is 
producing fresh to strong N to NE winds over the waters between 
the Cabo Verde Islands to the Canary Islands and eastward from 
there. Rough seas prevail with these winds.

For the forecast west of 55W, moderate to fresh E to SE winds 
will pulse south of 25N through Fri as a strong pressure gradient 
prevails between high pressure to the north and the Colombian low.
Elsewhere, moderate to fresh S to SW winds are expected to 
develop by early Fri offshore of Florida, with winds strengthening
and expanding eastward to 70W later in the day, ahead of a cold 
front moving through the eastern United States. Locally rough seas
will accompany these winds. The cold front is slated to move 
offshore Fri night into Sat, with winds turning to the west and 
weakening behind the front. The front will dissipate this 
weekend, and high pressure will build over the western Atlantic. 

$$
ERA