000
AXNT20 KNHC 160724
TWDAT
Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0615 UTC Fri May 16 2025
Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.
Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0425 UTC.
...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...
The monsoon trough axis enters the Atlantic through the coast of
The Gambia near 13N16W and continues southwestward to 06N23W. The
ITCZ extends from 06N23W to 02N35W and to 01N50W. Scattered
moderate convection is observed from 03N to 07N and between 20W
and 38W.
...GULF OF AMERICA...
A weak ridge positioned over the NE Gulf waters maintains
generally tranquil weather conditions across the basin. Moderate
to locally fresh E-SE winds and moderate seas are noted in the
western half of the Gulf (west of 90W), while moderate or weaker
winds and slight to moderate seas are prevalent.
For the forecast, tighter pressure gradient between the surface ridge
over the eastern Gulf and lower pressure over eastern Mexico will
sustain moderate to fresh southeasterly winds and moderate seas at
the western Gulf through Tue. Pulsing fresh to locally strong E
winds are likely each afternoon and evening north of the Yucatan
Peninsula as a trough develops daily and drifts westward.
...CARIBBEAN SEA...
Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms are present over the
SW Caribbean, mainly S of 12N. The storm activity is associated
with the eastern extent of the EPAC monsoon trough and plenty of
tropical moisture. Similar convective activity is impacting
Hispaniola and eastern Cuba, especially the southern coasts and
nearby waters. Fresh easterly winds and moderate seas are
occurring in the Gulf of Honduras. Farther east, the subtropical
ridge north of the islands supports moderate to locally fresh
easterly winds and moderate seas across much of the central and
eastern Caribbean. Elsewhere, moderate or weaker winds and slight
to moderate seas prevail.
For the forecast, fresh to locally strong E to SE winds will
pulse in the Gulf of Honduras each afternoon and night through Tue
night. Fresh ENE winds with moderate seas should linger at the
south- central basin until late Fri morning, and occur at the lee
of Cuba and near the Windward Passage on Fri and Sat nights.
Starting Mon, easterly trade winds and swell will gradually build
at the eastern basin, then spread westward into the southwestern
basin.
...ATLANTIC OCEAN...
An extensive subtropical ridge centered near 33N52W dominates the
tropical Atlantic waters. Fresh easterly trade winds and moderate
seas are found off northern Hispaniola. The pressure gradient
between this ridge and lower pressures in the deep tropics support
moderate to fresh easterly winds south of 25N and between 35W and
65W. This was confirmed by a recent scatterometer satellite pass.
Seas in these waters are 5-9 ft. Farther north, a surface trough
extends from 31N31W to 26N51W. Moderate northerly winds and seas
of 6-10 ft are found behind the trough axis. In the eastern
Atlantic, especially east of 20W and north of 15N, fresh to
locally strong northerly winds and moderate to locally rough seas
are evident. Elsewhere, moderate or weaker winds and slight to
moderate seas are prevalent.
For the forecast west of 55W, moderate to locally fresh ENE to E
winds will pulse north of Hispaniola and the Windward Passage
each night through Sat night. Moderate to fresh easterly trade
winds and rough seas are going to persist in the Atlantic waters
near and east of the Lesser Antilles through Sun night. In the
long run, a cold front moving off the Carolina coast will bring
moderate to fresh SW winds and building seas north of 28N from Sat
night through Mon morning.
$$
Delgado