014 
AXNT20 KNHC 310839
TWDAT 

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1215 UTC Sat May 31 2025

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 
0830 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

The axis of a tropical wave is near 16W, S of 17N, moving W of 10
to 15 kt. Scattered moderate and isolated strong convection is
noted from 10N to 12N E of 19W. 

The axis of a tropical wave is near 77W, S of 17N, moving W at 15
to 20 kt. Associated convection is mainly over South America and 
the far eastern north Pacific off the coast of Colombia. 

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... 

The monsoon trough extends off the coast of Africa near 14N17W and
extends SW to near 06N24W. The ITCZ continues from 06N24W to
02N44W. Scattered moderate convection is noted from 03N to 07N
between 14W and 40W. 

GULF OF AMERICA...

A frontal boundary extends from the Florida Big Bend to southern
Texas. A 1016 mb high is centered near 25N87W. A surface trough is
over the western Yucatan peninsula. The pressure gradient between
the area of high pressure and the front is supporting moderate 
winds over the NE Gulf. The pressure gradient between the area if 
high pressure and the trough is supporting moderate winds W of the
Yucatan peninsula. Light to gentle winds are noted elsewhere. Seas
in the Gulf waters are in the 1-3 ft range. 

For the forecast, the front will drift southward and then stall 
and dissipate through early Sun. Moderate to fresh E to NE winds 
are expected each afternoon and evening north of the Yucatan 
Peninsula and into the eastern Bay of Campeche as a trough 
develops daily and moves westward. High pressure will build in the
wake of the front with gentle to moderate breezes and slight seas
across most of the Gulf through early next week. Expect moderate 
to fresh SE winds and building seas across the western and south- 
central Gulf Tue and Wed between a trough over northern Mexico and
high pressure over the Carolinas. 

CARIBBEAN SEA...

A surface ridge extends across the Atlantic waters N of the
Caribbean. The pressure gradient between the ridge and the
Colombian low is supporting fresh to strong winds over the central
Caribbean. Fresh winds are elsewhere E of 80W. Moderate to fresh
winds are over the western Caribbean. Seas are in the 6-8 ft range
over the central Caribbean, 5-6 ft over the eastern Caribbean, and
2-4 ft over the western Caribbean. 

For the forecast, fresh to strong E winds and moderate to rough 
seas will expand across most of the Caribbean through the middle 
of next week. 

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A 1016 mb low is centered near 30.5N45W with a stationary front 
extending west-southwestward to 25N59W. Moderate winds are within
30 nm E of the front. High pressure prevails elsewhere over the 
waters N of 20N. Fresh to strong winds are off the NE coast of
Florida, with moderate winds elsewhere W of 70W. Moderate winds
are found N of 20N and E of 30W. Light to gentle winds are
elsewhere over the waters N of 20N. S of 20N, moderate to fresh
winds prevail. Seas are in the 3-6 ft range N of 20N, though
reaching near 7 ft in the area of strong winds off Florida. S of
20N, seas are in the 6-7 ft range. 

For the forecast west of 55W, fresh to strong SW winds and rough 
seas are expected ahead of a weak cold front that will move into 
the waters off northeast Florida through early today. The front 
will stall and dissipate through Sun. These winds and seas will 
diminish through Sun. A second weak front will move off the 
southeast U.S. coast Mon and reach from Bermuda to east-central 
Florida by late Tue, then dissipate as it moves eastward through 
mid week. High pressure will build in the wake of the front with 
fresh to strong winds off the north coast of Hispaniola late Wed.

$$
AL