271 
AXNT20 KNHC 302339
TWDAT 

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0015 UTC Sat May 31 2025

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 
2330 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A tropical wave has been analyzed along 80W from 17N southward 
through central Panama, moving westward at 15-20 kt. No 
significant convection is noted near the tropical wave at this 
time.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... 

The monsoon trough extends from 12N16W to 07N22W. The ITCZ 
continues from 07N22W to 03N51W. Widely scattered moderate
convection is occurring from 03N to 09N between 20W and 45W.  

GULF OF AMERICA...

A cold front resides along the northern Gulf Coast, and continues
as a stationary front along coastal Texas. Moderate W winds are
occurring in the northeastern Gulf ahead of the front. Otherwise,
ridging prevails over the remainder of the basin, supporting
gentle to locally moderate SE to SW winds and seas of 2 to 4 ft. 

For the forecast, the aforementioned cold front will move into 
the northern Gulf overnight, then stall and dissipate through 
early Sun. Moderate to fresh E to NE winds are expected each 
afternoon and evening north of the Yucatan Peninsula and into the 
eastern Bay of Campeche as a trough develops daily and moves 
westward. Elsewhere, high pressure building behind the front will 
support gentle to moderate breezes and slight seas across most of 
the Gulf through early next week. Looking ahead, expect moderate 
to fresh SE winds and building seas across the western and south-
central Gulf Tue and Wed between a trough over northern Mexico and
high pressure over the Carolinas.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

The eastern extent of the Pacific monsoon trough extends over the
far south-central Caribbean, and a 1009 mb low resides along the 
trough. Weak ridging is noted across much of the rest of the 
basin. The pressure gradient between these features is supporting 
moderate to fresh trade winds and seas of 6 to 8 ft across the 
central basin. Locally strong winds are noted just offshore of 
northern Colombia, which is promoting seas of 8 to 10 ft west of 
the strongest winds. Elsewhere, pulsing moderate to fresh E winds 
are occurring in the Gulf of Honduras. Seas of 3 to 6 ft are noted
in the eastern Caribbean, with seas of 2 to 4 ft in the 
northwestern basin. 

For the forecast, fresh to strong E winds and moderate to rough 
seas will expand across most of the Caribbean through the middle 
of next week.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Weak 1018 mb low pressure is centered near 31N44W. A cold front 
extends southwest from the low to 27N51W, where it continues 
southwestward to 26N59W as a stationary front. Moderate to fresh 
SW winds are occurring to the east of the front, with moderate to 
locally fresh NE winds occurring to the north. Elsewhere, moderate
to fresh SW winds are developing offshore of Florida to 70W and 
north of the Bahamas, ahead of a cold front moving through the 
southeastern U.S. Otherwise, ridging extends over the remainder of
the basin, supporting moderate or weaker trades and 4 to 7 ft 
seas across the basin.

For the forecast west of 55W, fresh to strong SW winds and rough 
seas will occur ahead of a weak cold front that will move into the
waters off northeast Florida through early Sat, then stall and 
dissipate through Sun. These winds and seas will diminish through 
Sun. Looking ahead, a second weak front will move off the
southeast U.S. coast Mon and reach from Bermuda to east-central 
Florida by late Tue, then dissipate as it moves eastward through 
mid week. High pressure following the front may support fresh to 
strong winds off the north coast of Hispaniola late Wed. 

$$
ADAMS