173 
AXNT20 KNHC 300833
TWDAT 

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1215 UTC Fri May 30 2025

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 
0830 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

The axis of a tropical wave is near 68W south of 15N, moving 
westward at 15 to 20 kt. Limited convection is noted with this
wave. 

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... 

The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic off the coast Africa near 
14N17W and extends southwestward to near 08N20W. The ITCZ
continues from 08N20W to 04N30W to 03N51W. Scattered moderate 
convection is noted within 60 nm of the ITCZ.

...GULF OF AMERICA...

High pressure prevails over the eastern Gulf, with a surface
trough just west of the Yucatan peninsula. The pressure gradient
between the area of high pressure and the surface trough is
supporting moderate winds N and W of the Yucatan peninsula. Light
to gentle winds are over the eastern Gulf near the area of high 
pressure. Gentle winds are noted elsewhere. Seas are in the 3-4 ft
range N of the Yucatan peninsula, and 1-3 ft elsewhere. 

For the forecast, moderate to fresh E to NE winds are expected 
each afternoon and evening north of the Yucatan Peninsula and into
the eastern Bay of Campeche as a trough develops daily and moves 
westward. Moderate to locally fresh W winds will develop this 
afternoon in the northeastern Gulf, ahead of a cold front moving 
through the southern U.S. The front will push into the basin late 
today into Sat. High pressure will build over the northeastern 
Gulf in the wake of the front early next week. 

...CARIBBEAN SEA... 

A high pressure ridge extends along 27N/28N over the western
Atlantic. The pressure gradient between this area of high pressure
and The Colombian low is supporting fresh to strong winds over the
south Central Caribbean. Fresh winds are elsewhere E of 80W. Fresh
to strong winds are pulsing over the Gulf of Honduras. Gentle to
moderate winds are noted elsewhere. Seas are in the 7-10 ft range
over the south central Caribbean. Seas of 4-7 ft are noted
elsewhere, except S of Cuba where seas are in the 2-4 ft range. 

For the forecast, fresh to strong E winds and rough seas are 
expected across the southwestern and central Caribbean today 
before these winds expand across the eastern and central basin 
this weekend. Moderate to rough seas are expected over these 
waters. Elsewhere, moderate to fresh winds will pulse in the Gulf 
of Honduras through this weekend, then increase in coverage to the
remainder of the western Caribbean early next week.

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A frontal boundary enters the waters near 31N45W and extends SW to
near 26N64W. High pressure prevails elsewhere N of 20N. Gentle to
moderate winds, and seas of 6-7 ft, are in the vicinity of the 
frontal boundary. Moderate winds are also noted W of 70W. Light to
gentle winds are elsewhere over the waters N of 20N. S of 20N, 
moderate to fresh winds prevail. Elsewhere over the waters N of
20N, seas are in the 3-5 ft range. S of 20N, seas are in the 5-7
ft range. 

For the forecast west of 55W, moderate to fresh S to SW winds 
offshore of Florida will strengthen, with rough seas developing, 
north of 28N and west of 65W by early Sat as a cold front moves 
into the western Atlantic. Winds will turn to the W and slowly 
diminish behind the front Sat through Sat night, before the front 
weakens and lifts northeastward on Sun. High pressure will build 
in the wake of the front into next week.

$$
AL