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Atlantic Tropical Weather Discussion

AXNT20 KNHC 250540

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
140 AM EDT Tue Jun 25 2019

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 
0520 UTC.


A tropical wave is analyzed in the eastern Atlantic, with axis
along 30/31W from 11N southward, moving W at around 15-20 kt. A
TPW maximum is just behind the wave axis. Model guidance supports 
this position. Scattered showers are noted along and E of the wave
axis where it intersects the monsoon trough.

A tropical wave is added to the analysis with axis from 17N40W to
09N37W, moving W around 15 kt. Dry Saharan air surrounds the wave.

The weak tropical wave that was previously analyzed along 45W at
24/1800 UTC has been removed from the analysis.

An eastern Caribbean tropical wave is along 65W from 07N-21N,
moving W at 10-15 kt. The wave is apparent in the TPW imagery. 
Scattered thunderstorms are seen near and over the Virgin Islands.
Isolated showers are elsewhere along and within 120 nm ahead of 
the wave axis.

A tropical wave is in the south-central Caribbean with axis
analyzed along 77/78W from 05N-17N, moving W around 15 kt. 
Associated convection is confined mainly to inland areas over 
northern Colombia and E Panama, with isolated showers near the
wave axis south of 12N.


The monsoon trough passes through the coast of Africa near 16N17W
and continues to 10N21W to 06N26W to 05N32W. The ITCZ begins near
05N32W and continues to the coast of South America near 07N59W.
Aside from the convection described near the tropical waves, 
scattered showers are noted along and within 90 nm N of the ITCZ
between 34W-36W.


A 1017 mb surface high near 26N84W is bringing quiet weather to
the eastern Gulf of Mexico. Mid-level riding also prevails over
the eastern Gulf. Southerly winds to the west of the high are 
ushering in moist tropical air to the west-central Gulf and 
southern Texas. As a result, widespread moderate to isolated 
strong showers and thunderstorms are occurring over NE Mexico, 
south Texas and the west central Gulf of Mexico, mainly west of a 
line from 29N93W to 25N93W to 20N96W. Rain and thunderstorms are
particularly heavy just west of Brownsville Texas, where a Flash
Flood Emergency is in effect. A cluster of tstorms are also seen 
in the southern Bay of Campeche near Coatzacoalcos.

A trough forming over the Yucatan Peninsula will produce fresh to
strong winds each night through Wed night as it moves west-
northwest over the SW Gulf. Otherwise, a high pressure ridge will 
dominate the remainder of the Gulf waters, supporting light to 
gentle winds through Sat. 


Refer to the Tropical Waves section above for details on the 
tropical waves moving across the basin.

Upper-level cyclonic flow covers the western Caribbean Sea.
Relatively dry air covers the area north of 15N and west of Haiti.
As a result of the dry air and relatively weak winds, some high
temperatures were tied or broken on Monday afternoon across
western Cuba and South Florida. In Cuba, 21 weather stations
recorded a high temperature of 95 or higher. The hottest temperature
of 99.3 was reported by Paso Real de San Diego in Pinar del Rio 
province. This could be an all-time record for Cuba for the month 
of June. Previously, Cuba's June record temperature was 98.6 on 
June 11, 1951, according to the Cuban Meteorological Service.

Despite the dry air, scattered showers and tstorms are currently
seen near the south coast of eastern Cuba. Farther south, in an 
area with greater moisture content, scattered moderate convection 
is seen over NW Venezuela, with scattered showers in the south- 
central Caribbean. Scattered showers and tstorms are also seen in 
the western Caribbean along and within 150 nm of the coast of 

Latest ASCAT pass from Monday evening shows strong winds in the 
Gulf of Venezuela and Gulf of Honduras, with fresh trades in the 
central Caribbean, and moderate winds elsewhere. The Bermuda high 
will strengthen by Wed increasing winds across the central and 
southwest basin through the weekend. Near gale force winds are 
expected at night over Colombia adjacent waters Tue night through 
Sat night.


Refer to the Tropical Waves section above for details on the 
tropical waves currently moving across the tropical Atlantic.

A cold front extends from a triple point near 32N73W to 29N74W. A
warm front extends SE from the triple point to 29N68W. Scattered
showers and tstorms are seen E of the northwest Bahamas and S of 
the cold front from 25N-28N between 71W-76W. A cold front enters 
the area near 32N50W to 28N54W to 27N59W. A pre-frontal trough is 
from 31N48W to 26N54W. Scattered moderate showers are seen ahead 
of the front and in the vicinity of the trough, mainly N of 24N 
between 44W-54W. In the NE Atlantic, a cold front enters the 
discussion area near 32N15W to 28N17W to 24N24W. No significant 
convection accompanies the front.

A frontal boundary across the waters north of 28N should dissipate
by Tue. The pressure gradient on the southwest side of the Bermuda
high is weak and will produce light to gentle variable winds in 
the area through Wed. The Bermuda high will strengthen Wed night 
through Sat and tradewinds will increase to moderate east of the 
Bahamas, across the Great Bahama Bank and in the approach to the 
Windward Passage.

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