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Atlantic Tropical Weather Discussion

AXNT20 KNHC 010612

Tropical Weather Discussion 
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 
100 AM EDT Mon Jun 01 2020

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 
0500 UTC.


...Heavy rainfall in Central America and Southern Mexico...

A Central American Gyre is centered over northern Central America
and southern Mexico, with the broad cyclonic circulation around 
the gyre encompassing southern Mexico and much of Central 
America. Areas of thunderstorms continue to impact portions of 
Central America from Nicaragua northwestward to Southern Mexico. 
The remnant low of Amanda is now centered over N Guatemala, but 
the focused area of circulation within the larger Central 
American Gyre has led to torrential rainfall over portions of 
Guatemala and El Salvador over the past 12 to 24 hours.

Winds around the gyre will continue to advect abundant moisture 
into portions of Central America and southeastern Mexico for the 
next several days. This will maintain a dangerous situation for 
these areas. Heavy rainfall has already impacted portions of 
Guatemala, Belize, El Salvador, western Honduras, western 
Nicaragua, and portions of southern Mexico E of Veracruz and 
eastern Oaxaca. A continued period of active and wet weather, 
with periods of heavy rainfall, is expected over these areas the 
next several days. The continued heavy rainfall will exacerbate 
the current situation, with the potential for life-threatening 
flash floods and mudslides for locations that receive the 
heaviest rainfall, especially in areas of mountainous terrain. 
Please refer to products issued by your local weather service for
more details.

The remnant low of Amanda may rotate around the larger 
circulation of the Central American Gyre and move out over water 
in the Bay of Campeche. There is a medium possibility that the 
remnant circulation of Amanda may develop into a tropical 
cyclone in the SW Gulf when it emerges over water.


The monsoon trough extends from 10.5N15W to 06N22W. The ITCZ 
continues from 06N22W to 04N30W to the coast of Brazil near 
00N50W. Scattered moderate convection is off the coast of Sierra 
Leone from 06N-11N between 13W-18W. Isolated moderate convection 
is within 120 nm of the ITCZ W of 37W. 


Please read the SPECIAL FEATURES section for more information 
about heavy rainfall potential over southern Mexico during the 
next few days.

A dissipating cold front extends from Jacksonville Florida to
New Orleans Louisiana. Scattered showers are within 90 nm of 
the front. Scattered moderate convection is over the central 
Gulf. Scattered moderate to strong convection is over the Bay of 
Campeche and in the Yucatan peninsula, associated to the Central 
American Gyre. Fresh to strong winds are over the SW Gulf. 
Gentle to moderate winds prevail elsewhere. Seas are in the 3-5 
ft range over the SW Gulf, and 1-3 ft elsewhere. 

The weak cold front along the NE Gulf will fully dissipate 
tonight. However, a favorable middle to upper level pattern will 
continue to favor the continuation of showers and thunderstorms 
in this portion of the basin through Fri. Heavier showers are 
expected in the southern half of the basin associated with the 
remnant low of Amanda over Guatemala and a broad area of low 
pressure, known as a Central American Gyre, that is forecast to 
be nearly stationary the entire week. Strong to near gale force 
winds and high seas are expected in the Bay of Campeche through 
Wed associated with this scenario.


Please read the SPECIAL FEATURES section for more information 
about heavy rainfall potential over Central America during the 
next few days. 

The Central American Gyre is producing showers and thunderstorms 
across much of Central America and waters offshore central 
America. Fresh to locally strong winds prevail over the Gulf of 
Honduras. Gentle to moderate prevail elsewhere across the 
Caribbean waters. Seas are in the 5-7 ft range over the Gulf of 
Honduras, and 3-5 ft elsewhere.

A broad area of low pressure, known as the Central American
Gyre will persist over northern Central America and southern
Mexico during the entire week supporting heavy showers and 
scattered thunderstorms over the NW Caribbean. Winds and seas
will also increase in the Gulf of Honduras and off Yucatan
through Fri as a result. The Bermuda High will rebuild to north
of the basin on Tue, which will lead to the development of fresh
winds in the south-central Caribbean Tue through Fri.


A cold front is over the W Atlantic from 31N75W to Jacksonville
Florida. Scattered showers are within 90 nm of the front. A
1016 mb low is centered over the W Atlantic near 29N67W. A
surface trough extends S from the low to the S Bahamas near
22N73W. Scattered moderate convection is withim 120o nm if the 
low and trough. The tail end of a cold front is over the 
E Atlantic from 31N24W to 28N30W to 31N38W. Scattered showers 
are within 120 nm of the front. Over the W Atlantic, gentle to 
moderate trade winds, and seas of 5-6 ft, prevail S of 20N.
Light to gentle winds, and seas of 3-5 ft prevail over the open
waters N of 20N. Seas are in the 1-2 ft range W of the Bahamas.

The W Atlantic cold front will extend from just east of Bermuda 
SW to the northern Bahamas by Mon afternoon, stall along 25N by
Tue afternoon, and dissipate by Wed. NE winds behind the front 
will increase to fresh to strong Mon and Tue. High pressure 
building in the wake of the front will support moderate to fresh
trade winds south of 22N Wed through Fri.