000
AXNT20 KNHC 081723
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1815 UTC Thu Jan 8 2026

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 
1700 UTC.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic through Sierra Leone near
07.5N12W, then runs southwestward to 04N20W. The ITCZ continues 
westward from 04N20W to 04N40W to 02.5N51W. Scattered moderate 
convection is noted from 00N to 05N between 10W and 26W, and from 
03N to 06N between 38W and 50W.

...GULF OF AMERICA...

A ridge, associated with a 1021 mb high pressure centered just N of
the NW Bahamas, dominates the Gulf region. The pressure gradient 
between the ridge and a low pressure system that covers most of 
Texas and NE Mexico supports mainly a gentle to moderate anticyclonic
flow, with the exception of fresh to strong southerly winds over 
the NW and west-central parts of the basin based on a recent 
scatterometer pass. Seas of 4 to 7 ft are within these winds. 
Elsewhere, seas are 2 to 4 ft, except 1 to 2 ft N of 24N and E of 
90W. 

For the forecast, fresh to strong SE to S winds across the western
half of the Gulf will diminish to moderate to fresh speeds tonight
while expanding eastward over much of the eastern Gulf. These 
winds will precede the next cold front forecast to come off the 
coast of Texas Fri night. Strong to near gale force N winds 
following the front will rapidly increase to gale force near 
Tampico Sat morning, and in the Veracruz adjacent waters late Sat
through Mon morning. The front will exit the basin Mon morning 
and conditions in the SW Gulf will gradually improve Mon night 
into Tue. 

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

Recent satellite derived wind data provide observations of fresh
to strong winds trade winds over the south-central Caribbean, 
with the strongest winds of 25 to 30 kt offshore Colombia. Rough
seas are associated with these winds, that are the result of the
pressure gradient between high pressure N of the area and the  
Colombian low. Fresh to locally strong NE to E winds are occurring
south of Hispaniola while moderate to fresh winds are blowing
across the Windward Passage and between eastern Cuba and Jamaica. 
Seas of 4 to 6 ft are within these winds. Moderate or weaker 
winds are elsewhere along with slight to moderate seas. Low-topped
trade wind showers are moving westward across the basin. 

For the forecast, strong to near-gale force NE to E winds will 
pulse offshore of NW Colombia through Mon night due to the
pressure gradient between building high pressure N of the region 
and low pressure over northern Colombia. Rough seas to 11 ft will 
occur within these winds. Moderate to fresh NE to E winds are 
forecast elsewhere in the central and SW Caribbean, including the 
Windward Passage and Hispaniola adjacent waters. Locally strong 
winds will be likely pulsing at night over the Windward Passage 
Fri night and Sat night. Elsewhere, moderate or weaker winds will 
prevail, except for fresh NE to E winds in the lee side of Cuba 
and the Gulf of Honduras beginning tonight and continuing into 
Sat.

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A ridge, anchored on a 1021 mb high pressure located E of the 
Bahamas is supporting moderate or weaker winds and slight to 
moderate seas across the subtropical waters W of 45W. A cold front
enters the forecast region near 31N41W and continues SW to near
26N50W. Scattered showers, with embedded thunderstorms, are ahead
of the front mainly N of 27N. The low pressure previously located
NE of the Leeward Islands has opened up into a trough. This system
extends from 25N58W to 18N62W and is generating a few showers. To
the east, strong high pressure of 1036 mb located between the 
Azores and the Madeiras Islands dominates the remainder of the 
Atlantic forecast region. The pressure gradient between the high 
pressure and lower pressure in the vicinity of the Monsoon 
trough/ITCZ is generating a large area of fresh to strong NE to E 
winds N of 10N and E of 30W with seas of 8 to 12 ft. Fresh to 
locally strong trade winds and seas of 7 to 10 ft are observed 
over the remainder of the tropical Atlantic E of 50W. Gentle to 
moderate winds and moderate seas, in long period NE swell, are 
seen E of the Lesser Antilles.

For the forecast west of 55W, strong high pressure building in 
the wake of a cold front with tail just N of the region will 
support moderate to fresh NE winds across the waters E of the 
Bahamas, the Great Bahama Bank and the approaches to the Windward 
Passage from this evening through Sun. A new cold front will 
emerge off the NE Florida coast Sun afternoon. Fresh to strong NW 
winds will follow this front, which is forecast to reach from 
Bermuda to the northern Bahamas by Mon morning and dissipate Mon 
night into Tue. 

$$
GR