000
AXNT20 KNHC 011811
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1815 UTC Sun Jun 1 2025

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 
1630 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

An eastern Atlantic tropical wave is near 24W from the Cabo Verde
Islands southward, and moving westward around 10 kt. Scattered 
moderate convection is noted from 05N to 10N and between 22W and 
27W. 

A western Caribbean tropical wave is near 85W from eastern
Honduras southward through Nicaragua and Costa Rica into the
eastern Pacific Ocean. It is moving westward at 10 to 15 kt. 
Isolated thunderstorms are noted near the Caribbean coast of
Nicaragua. This wave is expected to completely enter the East 
Pacific Ocean later this afternoon.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... 

A monsoon trough enters the Atlantic along the coastal border of
Senegal and Gambia, then curves southwestward to near 07N27W. An
ITCZ continues west-southwestward from 07N27W through 04N40W to
nar northeastern French Guiana at 05N52W. Aside from convection 
noted in the tropical waves section, scattered moderate convection
is noted south of the monsoon trough from 04N to 12N between 10W 
and 22W. Similar convection is found up to 100 nm north, and 200
nm south of the ITCZ.

The eastern end of the East Pacific monsoon trough is producing
widely scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms over the
Caribbean waters near Costa Rica and Panama.

...GULF OF AMERICA...

A stationary front curves southeastward from eastern Texas across
the central Gulf into southern Florida. Scattered showers and
isolated strong thunderstorms are occurring near this boundary
over the east-central Gulf and southern Florida. Isolated
thunderstorms are found at the central Gulf. A surface trough at
the Bay of Campeche is causing scattered showers at the west-
central Gulf. Gentle to moderate SW winds and seas at 2 to 4 ft
are found across the central and east-central Gulf, especially
near showers and thunderstorms. Light to gentle winds with 1 to 3
ft seas prevail for the rest of the Gulf.

Latest satellite imagery and local observations indicate 
visibility down to 5 nm over the northwestern Gulf, and Bay of
Campeche due to agricultural fires.

For the forecast, the aforementioned stationary front will 
dissipate through Mon. Moderate to fresh NE to E winds are 
expected each afternoon and evening north of the Yucatan Peninsula
and into the eastern Bay of Campeche as a trough develops daily 
and moves westward. Elsewhere, gentle to moderate breezes and 
slight seas are expected across most of the Gulf through the early
part of the week. Expect moderate to fresh SE winds and building 
seas across the western and south-central Gulf Tue into Thu 
between a trough over northern Mexico and high pressure over the 
Carolinas. 

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

A surface ridge near 22N continues to support a relatively fair 
trade-wind regime across most of the Caribbean, except monsoonal 
winds near Costa Rica and Panama. Fresh to strong ENE to E winds 
and 7 to 9 ft seas are evident at the south-central and 
southeastern basin. Moderate to fresh ESE to SE winds with 4 to 6
ft seas are evident at the south-central basin. Gentle to 
moderate southeasterly winds and seas of 4 to 6 ft dominate the 
rest of the western basin. Moderate to fresh southeasterly winds 
and 4 to 6 ft seas prevail elsewhere in the Caribbean basin. Refer
to the Monsoon Trough/ITCZ section for any weather in the 
Caribbean.

For the forecast, fresh to strong E winds and moderate to rough 
seas will expand across most of the Caribbean through Thu. 

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A stationary front curves southwestward from 31N68W to southern
Florida. Scattered showers and isolated strong thunderstorms are
occurring up to 200 nm along either side of the front. Farther
south, convergent southerly winds are triggering similar weather
from 25N to 27N between 45W and 73W. At the central Atlantic a
persistent, broad 1022 low near 31N48W is triggering scattered 
showers north of 25N between 46W and 55W. Refe to the Monsoon
Trough/ITCZ and Tropical Wave sections for additional detail.

Moderate to fresh southerly winds and seas of 6 to 8 ft are
evident north of 20N between 60W and 71W. To the west, gentle to
moderate SW to W winds with 4 to 6 ft seas are available. At the
central Atlantic from 22N to 31N between 40W and 55W, light to
gentle winds with 4 to 5 ft seas persist. Farther south for the
tropical Atlantic from 06N to 20N, and north of 20N between 35W 
and 40W, moderate to fresh NE to ESE and seas at 6 to 9 ft are
noted. Gentle to moderate E to SE winds and seas of 4 to 7 ft in
mixed moderate swells prevail for the remainder of this email. 

For the forecast west of 55W, fresh SW winds and moderate to 
locally rough seas will persist into tonight east of the
stationary. The front will dissipate Mon ahead of another cold 
front moving into the region between northeast Florida and Bermuda
Tue. The front will dissipate southeast of Bermuda through mid 
week. High pressure will build in the wake of the front with fresh
to strong winds off the north coast of Hispaniola late Wed and 
Thu

$$

Chan