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Atlantic Tropical Weather Discussion

AXNT20 KNHC 191037

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
637 AM EDT Sat Oct 19 2019

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 
1030 UTC.


Tropical Storm Nestor is centered near 29.0N 86.0W at 19/0900
UTC or 70 nm SW of Apalachicola Florida moving NE at 15 kt.
Estimated minimum central pressure is 998 mb. Maximum sustained
wind speed is 45 kt with gusts to 55 kt. Scattered to numerous 
showers and thunderstorms are noted across the eastern portion of 
the system north of 22N and east of 87W. On the forecast track, 
Nestor will move inland over the Florida Panhandle this morning, 
and will then move across portions of the southeastern United 
States later today and Sunday while it becomes a post-tropical 
cyclone. Gale-force winds are expected to develop by this evening
in relation to Nestor over the west Atlantic waters mainly north 
of 30N and west of 76W. These conditions will continue through
20/0600 UTC. Nestor is expected to move offshore of the coast of 
North Carolina into the western Atlantic by late Sunday. See the 
latest NHC forecast/advisory under AWIPS/WMO headers 
MIATCMAT1/WTNT21 KNHC or the website for more 
details. For more information about the Gale Warning, refer to 
the High Seas Forecast product, under WMO/AWIPS headers FZNT02 


A tropical wave extends across the eastern Atlantic, with axis 
along 22W from 01N-13N. This wave is depicted in model guidance. 
Scattered showers are noted to the east of the wave axis from 08N-
13N and east of 21W.

A central Atlantic tropical wave extends its axis along 39W from 
12N southward, moving W at 10-15 kt. Scattered moderate convection
is from 07N-12N between 32W and the wave axis.

An eastern Caribbean tropical wave extends its axis along 67W 
from 20N southward, moving W at 10-15 kt. This wave is depicted  
well at the surface in scatterometer data. Scattered showers are 
noted along the wave axis from 14N-16N. 

A tropical wave extends across Central America with axis along 
86W from 02N-18N, moving W at around 5 kt. Scattered showers are 
noted along the southern portion of the wave affecting the EPAC 


The monsoon trough extends from 17N16W to 07N33W. The ITCZ 
extends from 05N40W to 05N52W. Aside from the convection related 
to the tropical waves described above, no significant convection
is noted at this time.


T.S. Nestor is over the Gulf of Mexico. See the Special Features 
section above for details. 

A stationary front extends from 29N83W to 30N88W. Scattered 
moderate convection is noted along this front. Scatterometer data 
depicts light to gentle winds prevailing across the western half 
of the basin west of 90W. Fair weather prevails across the western
Gulf also.

Nestor will move move inland near 30N85W across the central 
Florida Panhandle, and to 30.7N 84.0W this afternoon, then become
post-tropical and move to 33.5N 80.0W Sun morning. Marine 
conditions will improve rapidly across the NE Gulf tonight and 
Sun as Nestor accelerates off to the NE. A cold front will reach 
the NW Gulf Mon night, and extend across the basin from northern 
Florida to NE Mexico on Tue night. 


Two tropical waves are analyzed over the basin. See the section
above for details.

Upper-level ridging covers most of the western two-thirds of the
Caribbean. Mostly fair weather is west of 70W, with the exception
of the Yucatan Channel, where convection from the outer fringes 
of Nestor are noted. Scatterometer data depicts moderate trades 
across the whole basin.

Moderate to locally fresh trade winds will prevail across 
most of the the basin through mid-week. Fresh SE winds are likely
near the Yucatan Channel this morning as Tropical Storm Nestor 
moves NE across the Gulf of Mexico. The tropical wave southwest 
of Puerto Rico will continue to move westward across the central 
and W Caribbean through early next week enhancing convection. 


Two tropical waves are analyzed over the basin and a Gale Warning
is in effect for the west Atlantic waters. See the sections above
for details.

A cold front over the west Atlantic extends from 31N60W to 
25N72W, then continues as a stationary front to 28N80W. Scattered
showers prevail along the cold front, while scattered moderate
convection prevails west of 77W as T.S. Nestor approaches. To the
east, a surface trough extends from 26N33W to 22N33W. Surface
ridging prevails across the remainder of the basin.

The frontal system over the west Atlantic will dissipate west of 
75W later today. T.S. Nestor in the NE Gulf of Mexico will move 
NE across the SE United States this weekend, and gale force S to 
SW winds north of 30N are expected ahead of it across NW Atlc 
waters this evening. Weak high pressure will prevail over the 
area Mon and Tue. The next cold front will move off the coast of N
Florida by Tue evening.