000
AXNT20 KNHC 231607
TWDAT 

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1815 UTC Fri May 23 2025

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 
1600 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A tropical wave is along 19W, from 15N southward, moving west at
10-15 kt. Scattered showers and tstorms are in the vicinity of
the wave axis and Monsoon Trough.

A tropical wave is along 43W, from 15N southward, moving west at
15-20 kt. Convection is described in the ITCZ section below.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... 

The monsoon trough exits the coast of western Africa near 11N15W 
and extends southwestward to 04N27W. The ITCZ extends from 04N27W 
to 04N40W. The ITCZ resumes at 04N45W and continues to the coast 
of Brazil near 04N52W. Scattered moderate convection is from 01N
to 09N between 37W and 55W.

GULF OF AMERICA...

1019 mb high pressure centered in the NE Gulf provides for light
to gentle anticyclonic winds across the basin, with 1-3 ft seas. A
few showers are evident on satellite imagery embedded within the
moist low level flow.

For the forecast, high pressure will remain in place across the 
northeast Gulf through early next week, supporting moderate to 
fresh SE wind across the western half of the Gulf. NE to E winds 
will pulse to fresh to strong speeds along and just north of the 
Yucatan Peninsula each afternoon and evening through Tue night as 
a trough develops inland daily and then drifts westward to the Bay
of Campeche at night. Smoke from agricultural fires in SE Mexico 
are expected to maintain hazy sky conditions across the Bay of 
Campeche and western Gulf through Tue night. 

CARIBBEAN SEA... 

The latest satellite scatterometer pas detected strong to near-
gale force trades in the south-central Caribbean off the coast of
Colombia. These winds are a result of a strong pressure gradient
between the Colombian Low and high pressure in the NE Gulf of
America and subtropical Atlantic. Seas are 8-11 ft. Elsewhere,
moderate to fresh trades prevail with 4-7 ft seas, except in the
NW Caribbean where trades are gentle to moderate and seas are 2-4
ft. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is noted in the
far SW Caribbean, from the coast of Panama north to 12N and west
of 80W to Costa Rica.

For the forecast, high pressure north of the region will continue
to support fresh to strong NE to E winds in the central and 
portions of the SW Caribbean through Tue night. Moderate to fresh 
trades are forecast for the majority of the remainder basin, 
except for pulsing fresh to strong winds in the Gulf of Honduras 
at night. A tropical wave will approach the tropical Atlantic 
waters Sat and enter the E Caribbean Sun, thus enhancing the winds
and seas over the tropical Atlantic waters mainly east of the 
Windward Islands through Mon morning.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Refer to the section above for details on tropical waves. 

A surface trough extends from 31N69W to the northern Bahamas near
27N77W. Scattered moderate convection is along the surface trough.
No other significant features are analyzed across the tropical
Atlantic. Satellite scatterometer indicates light to gentle trades
north of 20N, and gentle to moderate trades south of 20N. Trades
are locally fresh from 07N to 15N west of 40W to the Windward
Islands. Seas are 4-7 ft in open waters. 

For the forecast west of 55W, the ridge associated with the 
Azores high will continue to extend across the western subtropical
Atlantic south of 24N, except for locally strong winds just north
of Hispaniola pulsing at night. Otherwise, a series of weak 
frontal troughs will sweep eastward across the waters between 
northeast Florida and Bermuda tonight through Sat and then again 
Mon through Tue. 

$$
Mahoney