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Atlantic Tropical Weather Discussion



000
AXNT20 KNHC 242329
TWDAT 

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
729 PM EDT Mon Jun 24 2019

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 
2315 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A tropical wave is analyzed in the eastern Atlantic, with axis
along 29W from 01N-11N, moving W at around 10-15 kt. Scattered 
showers are seen near the vicinity of the wave axis. Model
guidance and TPW imagery support this position. At this time,
scattered showers are noted along the wave's axis mainly south of
06N.

A weak tropical wave is located over the central Atlantic, with 
its axis analyzed along 45W from 01N-11W, moving W at around 10-15
kt. There is no significant convection associated with this wave 
at this time.

A tropical wave has entered the eastern Caribbean, with axis along
64W from 10N-20N, moving W around 10-15 kt. This feature is 
apparent in the TPW imagery and in a recent ASCAT dataset, where 
a wind shift is noted between 60W-65W. Scattered showers are
already developing in the wave's environment affecting the Lesser
Antilles and Puerto Rico.

A tropical wave is in the south-central Caribbean with axis
analyzed along 76W from 06N-17N, moving W around 10-15 kt. 
Associated convection is confined to inland areas over northern  
Colombia and Panama mainly south of 12N. 

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough passes through the coast of Africa near 16N17W
and continues 08N21W to 06N34W. The ITCZ begins near 06N34W and 
continues to 05N44W, then resumes W of a tropical wave near 
06N47W to 08N58W. Aside from the convection described near the 
tropical waves, scattered showers are noted within the monsoon 
trough mainly east of 30W. 

GULF OF MEXICO...

Upper level trough stretches from the Great Lakes Region 
southward suppressing the upper ridge across the basin. Upper 
level diffluence associated with this pattern supports for a line 
of convection along the northern Gulf. A squall line enters the 
Gulf and extends from 29N92W to 29N95W. This squall line will 
continue to move southward through tonight while weakening. 
Surface ridging dominates the remainder of the basin. No 
significant convection is occurring across the central and 
southern portion of the Gulf. Light to gentle anticyclonic winds 
prevail across the eastern Gulf and moderate to fresh easterly 
winds prevail across the western half of the Gulf.

A diurnal trough forming over the Yucatan Peninsula will produce 
fresh to strong winds each night through mod-week as it moves 
west-northwest over the SW Gulf. High pressure ridge near the 
U.S. Gulf coast will contribute toward generally quiescent winds 
over the Gulf for the next several days. No tropical cyclone 
activity is expected during the next several days. 

CARIBBEAN SEA...

Refer to the Tropical Waves section above for details on the 
tropical waves moving across the basin.

Abundant dry air is noted north of 11N and west of Haiti with a 
mid to upper level trough in place across the region. Meanwhile, 
tropical moisture continues to progress from northern South 
America to the eastern Caribbean under a mid to upper level ridge.
Scattered showers are noted over the eastern half of the basin
mainly east of 74W. Moderate to fresh easterly trades are in the 
south-central Caribbean, while gentle to moderate winds prevail 
elsewhere. 

A weak pressure gradient between the Bermuda high and the Colombian
low will continue producing generally moderate to fresh 
tradewinds across the Caribbean. Winds will reach the strong 
category north of Colombia and Gulf of Honduras. The Bermuda high 
will strengthen by mid-week, increasing winds across the region 
through Fri night. No tropical cyclone activity is expected for 
the next several days.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Refer to the Tropical Waves section above for details on the 
tropical waves currently moving across the tropical Atlantic.

A cold front enters the Atlantic waters near 31N52W and stretches
westward to 28N60W. The front stalls from that point to 31N71W, 
then transitions into a warm front north of 31N. A pre-frontal 
trough is analyzed from 31N50W to 26N63W. Scattered moderate 
convection prevails along the trough. To the east, another cold 
front west of the Canary Islands enters the Atlantic waters near 
31N16W and stretches southwest to 25N28W. No significant 
convection is associated with this boundary. A 1023 mb high 
pressure is near 33N38W and is ridging prevails across the rest 
of the basin. 

The frontal boundary in the west Atlantic should dissipate by 
mid-week. The pressure gradient on the southwest side of the 
Bermuda high is weak and producing quiescent winds in the area 
through Wed. As the Bermuda high strengthens by the end of the
week, the tradewinds will be enhanced, especially north of 
Hispaniola and the approach to the Windward Passage. No tropical 
cyclone activity is expected during the next several days.

For additional information please visit 
http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine

$$

ERA