128 
AXNT20 KNHC 040941
TWDAT 

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1215 UTC Wed Dec 4 2024

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 
0900 UTC.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough extends from the coast of Sierra Leone near to
08N13W to 05N25W. The ITCZ continues from 05N22W to 00N40W.
Scattered moderate convection is from 03N to 07N between 12W and
30W. 

...GULF OF MEXICO...

A cold front reaches from Port Charlotte, Florida to near 
Brownsville, Texas. 1033 mb high pressure over the southeastern
United States to the north of the front is supporting fresh to
strong NE to E winds across the southern Gulf south of 24N, with 5
to 8 ft seas, with the highest near the Yucatan Channel. The
pattern is also supporting fresh to strong SE to S winds over the
western Gulf, west of 93W, with 6 to 9 ft seas. Gentle to moderate
breezes and 3 to 5 ft seas are noted elsewhere. 

For the forecast, the cold front will dissipate over the Gulf 
later today. The high pressure building north of the front over 
the southeastern United States will maintain fresh to strong SE 
return flow over the western Gulf into tonight, accompanied by 
rough seas and numerous showers and thunderstorms. Looking ahead, 
a weak cold front will reach the northern Gulf coast Thu, stall 
across the central Gulf by late Fri before dissipating Sat.

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

A recent scatterometer satellite pass along with buoy observations confirmed
strong to near- gale force winds across the western Caribbean,
including the Windward Passage. Fixed and drifting buoy data also
indicates rough to very rough seas across the western Caribbean.
Moderate to fresh E winds and moderate seas are evident elsewhere.
Scattered showers and thunderstorms are noted over the southwest
Caribbean, mainly between Nicaragua and Jamaica. 

For the forecast, the high pressure north of the region will 
support strong to near-gale NE winds and rough seas over most of 
the northwest Caribbean and Windward Passage through tonight, and 
fresh to strong winds pulsing off Colombia farther south. The high
pressure will weaken and shift eastward Thu, allowing winds and 
seas to diminish slightly. NE swell will lead to seas of 8 to 10 
ft for Atlantic waters E of the Leeward Islands into Thu. Looking 
ahead, high pressure will build again north of the area over the 
western Atlantic, supporting fresh to strong NE to E winds across 
the western Caribbean along with moderate to rough seas through 
Sun.

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Fresh winds and rough seas follow a cold front reaching from weak
low pressure near 32N72W to Fort Lauderdale, Florida. A second, 
weaker front reaches from the north- central Atlantic through 
31N55W to northeast Haiti. Strong N to NE winds and rough seas are
active west of this front south of 22N from the southern Bahamas 
to eastern Cuba. 1031 mb high pressure centered near the Azores
dominates the eastern Atlantic, supporting moderate to fresh NE to
E winds, stronger near the Canary Islands, and 6 to 9 ft seas.

For the forecast west of 55W, the two fronts will merge and reach
from 31N52W to north-central Hispaniola late today, then stall 
and dissipate west off 55W through Thu. High pressure builds in 
behind the front, strong NE winds will continue south of 22N, 
offshore Hispaniola and eastern Cuba through tonight. Looking 
ahead, the next cold front will move into the waters off northeast
Florida late Thu into Fri, bringing large NW swell to the waters 
between northeast Florida and Bermuda north of 28N through Sun. 

$$
Christensen