000
AXNT20 KNHC 182336
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0015 UTC Mon May 19 2025

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 
2330 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A tropical wave has come off the coast of West Africa earlier
today. The low amplitude wave extends from 02N to 12N and its axis
is near 18W, moving west at 5 kt. Scattered moderate convection is
from 02N to 12N between 13W and 21W. 

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... 

The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic near 11N15W, then curves 
southwestward to 08N16W. The ITCZ begins near 05N21W and continues
along 04N36W to 04N51W. Aside from the convection associated with
the tropical wave, scattered moderate convection is from 01N to
07N between 21W and 50W.

...GULF OF AMERICA...

Broad surface ridging extends from the central Atlantic westward
to the eastern Gulf. The pressure between this ridge and lower
pressure across the western Gulf is supporting moderate to fresh 
SE winds across the Gulf waters W of 90W, and fresh to strong NE
to E winds off the Yucatan Peninsula. Seas W of 90W are 4 to 5 ft.
East of 87W, a 1018 mb high offshore Cape Coral, Florida is
providing light to gentle variable winds, except for moderate
easterly winds in the Florida Straits. Seas E of 87W are slight. 
Otherwise, smoke from agricultural fires over southeastern Mexico
continues to create hazy conditions at the west-central and 
southwestern Gulf, including the Bay of Campeche.

For the forecast, the pressure gradient between high pressure 
over the eastern Gulf and relatively lower pressure in Texas and 
in eastern Mexico will maintain moderate to fresh SE winds and 
moderate seas across the western Gulf through Tue. Pulsing fresh 
to strong E winds are likely along and just north of the Yucatan 
Peninsula each afternoon and evening through the period as a 
trough develops daily and drifts westward. Smoke from agricultural
fires in southeastern Mexico will continue to maintain hazy sky 
conditions across the west central and SW Gulf through the period.

...CARIBBEAN SEA... 

A middle to upper-level trough interacting with a surface trough 
analyzed just east of the Virgin Islands is aiding in the 
development of scattered showers and thunderstorms across the SE 
Caribbean and portions of the NE Caribbean. Moderate to locally
fresh trades prevail in the central and eastern Caribbean as well
as the Gulf of Honduras. Fresh NE winds are also across the
Windward Passage. Seas basin-wide are 2 to 5 ft. 

For the forecast, fresh to strong E to SE winds will pulse in the
Gulf of Honduras during late afternoons and nights through Fri
night. Increasing trades along with building seas are expected 
across the eastern part of the basin beginning late tonight. These
conditions will expand eastward to the central part of the basin 
by around mid-week and to most of the western Caribbean starting 
Thu night.

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Scattered showers and thunderstorms S of 28N between 51W and 64W 
are associated with a mid to upper-level cutoff low that is in 
that general area along with the resultant surface trough. A 1024 
mb high centered near 27N38W extends a broad ridge across much of
the Atlantic. Moderate to fresh NE to E winds prevail across much
of the tropical Atlantic while N to NE winds of the same magnitude
are between the W coast of Africa and the Cape Verde Islands.
Moderate or weaker winds are elsewhere along with moderate seas.

For the forecast west of 55W, the mid to upper-level low will 
gradually weaken through Mon as it generally shifts eastward 
allowing for the surface trough to lose its support. This should 
lead to a decreasing trend of the showers and thunderstorms. The 
high pressure extending west southwestward from the central 
Atlantic to South Florida will support light to gentle winds over 
most of the area W of 63W through Fri night. Moderate to fresh 
northeast to east winds will pulse north of Hispaniola and in the 
Windward Passage each night for the next few days. Looking ahead, 
fresh to strong SW to W winds and building seas are expected over 
the NW portion of the area and northeast of the Bahamas around the
middle of the week in response to a late season cold front that 
is anticipated to move off the southeastern United States coast 
Wed night and reach from near 31N75W to the NW Bahamas by late 
Thu, and weaken as it reaches from near 31N66W to just E of the 
central Bahamas by late Fri. Fresh W to NW winds will follow the 
front through late Thu night. The front may be preceded by 
scattered showers and thunderstorms. 

$$
Ramos