000
AXNT20 KNHC 231013
TWDAT 

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1215 UTC Mon Jun 23 2025

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 
1000 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

The tropical wave previously located along 45W is relocated father
W along 52W based on the TPW product ans satellite imagery. Scattered
moderate convection is evident near the southern end of the wave
axis from 04N to 10N and between 50W and 50W. the wave axis
reaches French Guiana.

A tropical wave has entered the eastern Caribbean. Its axis is
along 63W, south of 18N, moving westward around 15 to 20 kt. 
Scattered moderate convection is observed south of 14N between 
60W and 65W.

A second tropical wave is moving across the central Caribbean. Its
axis is along 75W, south of 17N, moving westward around 10 to 15 
kt. The wave appears to enhance convection over northern 
Colombia.

The tropical wave previously located over Central America was absorbed
by a broad area of low pressure situated a couple of hundred miles
offshore of Central America in the eastern Pacific region. 
 
...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... 

A monsoon trough enters the Atlantic Ocean through the coast of 
Mauritania near 19N16W, then continues southwestward to 09N23W. 
The ITCZ extends from 09N23W to 06N52W. Scattered moderate to
isolated strong convection is occurring from 04N to 08N between
30W and 50W. 

...GULF OF AMERICA...

A ridge continues to dominate the Gulf region producing moderate 
to fresh SE winds over the western Gulf, and gentle to moderate E 
to SE winds over the eastern Gulf. The exception are fresh to 
strong E winds over the east and central portions of the Bay of
Campeche due to local effects associated with a thermal trough,
fresh E winds across the Straits of Florida, and light to gentle
winds over the far NE Gulf. Seas are 3 to 6 ft W of 90W, a little
higher in the Bay of Campeche, and 1 to 3 ft E of 90W. Showers, 
with embedded thunderstorms, are observed along the coast of 
Mexico, particularly between Tampico and Veracruz. A diffluent 
pattern aloft is helping to induce this convective activity. 

For the forecast, high pressure will dominate the Gulf waters through
the period. Fresh northeast to east winds will pulse each afternoon
and evening over the next several days north of the Yucatan Peninsula
and in the eastern Bay of Campeche as a diurnal trough develops 
and tracks westward across the region. Moderate to fresh east to 
southeast winds and moderate seas over the central and western 
Gulf will diminish early this week. Gentle to moderate winds, and 
slight to locally moderate seas, can be expected thereafter. 

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

Two tropical waves are moving across Caribbean Sea. Please, see 
the Tropical Waves section for more details. 

Recent satellite derived wind data provide observations of fresh 
to strong winds over the south-central Caribbean, in the Windward
Passage, and in the Lesser Antilles and regional waters. These 
winds are the result of the pressure gradient between the Atlantic
ridge and the Colombian low. Seas are 8 to 10 ft with the strongest
winds. Moderate to fresh trades and moderate seas dominate the 
remainder of the basin, except the NW Caribbean where gentle to 
moderate winds and slight to moderate seas prevail. Clusters of 
moderate to strong convection are over the SW Caribbean, including
northern Colombia and much of Nicaragua, in association with a 
northward displacement of the eastern Pacific monsoon trough.

For the forecast, the pressure gradient between Atlantic high pressure
and the Colombian low will support fresh to strong trades over the
central part of the basin through the week. Moderate to rough seas
are expected within these winds. Elsewhere, moderate to fresh winds
and moderate seas will prevail. Looking ahead, a tighten pressure 
gradient is expected between the Atlantic ridge and the Colombian 
low by Tue, bringing fresh to strong trades over the eastern and 
central Caribbean. 

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A tropical wave is approaching the Lesser Antilles. Please, refer
to the Tropical Waves section for more details. 

A surface trough extends southwestward from a 1016 mb low pressure
(Invest 90L) located N of the forecast area near 32.5N56W to 24N70W.
A few showers are noted near the trough axis. High pressure of 
1031 mb located near the Azores dominates the remainder of the 
forecast area, with another high pressure of 1022 mb situated W of
Bermuda near 32N75W. Under this weather pattern and based on 
scatterometer and altimeter data, fresh to strong trades and rough
seas are noted over the Atlantic, mainly S of a line from 25N35W 
to 21N41W to 19N61W, including the Atlantic passages and 
exposures. Fresh to strong N to NE winds and rough seas also 
dominate the waters just N of the Cabo Verde Islands to about 30N 
and E of 35W, including between the Canary Islands. Fresh to 
strong E winds are just N of Hispaniola to about 22N, including 
approaches to the Windward Passage. Elsewhere, moderate or weaker 
winds and slight to moderate seas are prevalent.

For the forecast west of 55W, the above mentioned trough will dissipate
tonight into Tue, and the Atlantic high pressure will extend westward
toward the Florida peninsula by Tue night. Under this weather pattern,
moderate to fresh trades along with moderate to locally rough seas
are expected south of 25N over the next few days, with gentle to locally
moderate winds elsewhere. 

$$
GR