000
AXNT20 KNHC 021748
TWDAT 

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1815 UTC Mon Jun 2 2025

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 
1630 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

An eastern Atlantic tropical wave is near 16W from the coast of
Senegal southward, and moving westward near 10 kt. Scattered 
moderate convection is noted from 02N to 09N between 10W and 20W.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... 

A monsoon trough enters the Atlantic near the coastal border of 
Mauritania and Senegal, then curves southwestward to near 09N24W.
An ITCZ continues from 09N24W through 06N35W to north of Belem,
Brazil at 02N47W. Scattered moderate convection is noted up to 150
nm north, and 50 nm south of both features.

...GULF OF AMERICA...

A modest stationary front curves westward from a 1016 mb low 
offshore from St. Augustine, Florida across central Florida to the
central Gulf, then turns northwestward to a 1013 mb low over 
southwestern Louisiana. Scattered showers and isolated strong 
thunderstorms are occurring over the east-central Gulf, and 
central Florida. Convergent southerly winds to the south are 
causing isolated thunderstorms at the Florida Straits. Gentle to 
moderate E to SE to S winds with 1 to 3 ft seas are present for 
the entire Gulf. Gusty winds and locally higher seas are likely 
near strong thunderstorms.

For the forecast, the stationary front will dissipate by tonight.
Moderate to fresh NE to E winds are expected each afternoon and 
evening north of the Yucatan Peninsula, and into the eastern Bay 
of Campeche as a trough develops daily and moves westward. 
Elsewhere, gentle to moderate breezes and slight seas are expected
across the northern and eastern Gulf into midweek. Anticipate 
moderate to fresh SE winds and building seas across the western 
and south-central Gulf Tue through Fri between a trough over 
northern Mexico and high pressure over the Carolinas. 

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

A subtropical ridge near 25N continues to sustain a trade-wind
pattern across much of the Caribbean Sea. A surface trough
embedded within the trades is triggering scattered showers and
isolated thunderstorms at the Gulf of Honduras and the lee of 
western Cuba. Fresh to strong ENE to E winds and seas of 8 to 10 
ft are present at the south-central basin. Mainly fresh E to ESE 
winds and 6 to 8 ft seas are noted at the north-central basin. 
Light to gentle monsoonal winds with 1 to 3 ft seas are found near
Costa Rica and Panama. Gentle to moderate E to SE winds and seas 
at 3 to 6 ft prevail for the rest of the Caribbean Sea.

For the forecast, fresh to strong easterly winds and moderate to 
rough seas will expand across most of the basin through Thu, then
diminish some into the weekend. 

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Convergent southerly winds are coupling with upper-level divergent
flow to produce scattered heavy showers and strong thunderstorms
near the northwest and central Bahamas. Gusty winds and locally 
higher seas are likely near strong thunderstorms. Scattered 
showers and isolated thunderstorms exist farther northeast, south
of Bermuda from 26N to 31N between 61W and 68W. Isolated 
thunderstorms are seen near a 1016 mb low at 30N80W. Convergent 
trades are generating widely scattered showers and isolated 
thunderstorms near the coast of French Guiana and Suriname. Refer 
to the Tropical Wave and Monsoon Trough/ITCZ sections for 
additional weather in the Atlantic Basin west of 35W.

A subtropical ridge extends west-southwestward from a 1035 mb at
the north-central Atlantic across 31N56W to near the central
Bahamas. This feature is supporting gentle to moderate E to S to
SW winds with 3 to 6 ft seas north of 20N between 46W and the
Florida coast/Bahamas. Moderate to fresh NE winds and seas at 4 
to 6 ft are evident north of 20N between 35W and 46W. For the
tropical Atlantic from 06N to 20N between 35W and the Lesser
Antilles, moderate to fresh NE to E winds and seas of 6 to 8 ft
dominate. Gentle to moderate E to SE winds and 4 to 6 ft seas
prevail elsewhere for the Atlantic Basin west of 35W.

For the forecast west of 55W, a weak cold front will sag south of
30N Tue, then gradually dissipate southeast of Bermuda Wed. High 
pressure will build in the wake of the front with fresh to strong 
winds off the north coast of Hispaniola late Wed and Thu. 

$$

Chan