264 
AXNT20 KNHC 231744
TWDAT 

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1815 UTC Mon Jun 23 2025

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 
1630 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A newly analyzed far eastern Atlantic tropical wave is near 24W
from the Cabo Verde Islands southward, and moving west at 5 to 10
kt. Widely scattered showers are noted from 08N to 10N between 21W
and 26W.

A central Atlantic tropical wave is near 53W from 16N southward,
and moving west at 15 to 20 kt. Scattered moderate to isolated
strong convection is evident from 06N to 10N between 52W, and
Trinidad and Tobago.

An eastern Caribbean tropical wave is near 66W from south of
Puerto Rico southward into central Venezuela, and moving west at 
15 to 20 kt. Widely scattered moderate convection is observed fro 
11N to 13N between 62W and 70W, including the ABC Islands.

A central Caribbean tropical wave is near 76W from southeast of
Jamaica southward to over northwestern Colombia, and moving 
west at 10 to 15 kt. Scattered heavy showers and isolated strong
thunderstorms are occurring off northwestern Colombia. 
 
...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... 

A monsoon trough enters the Atlantic along the Mauritania coast 
near El Mamghar, then reaches southwestward to 11N21W. An ITCZ 
continues west-southwestward from 11N21W to 09N23W, then from 
08N26W across 05N40W to north of French Guiana at 06N52W. Widely 
scattered moderate convection is seen near and up to 100 nm north 
of the ITCZ between 23W and 35W. Scattered moderate to isolated 
strong convection is present near and up to 100 nm north of the 
ITCZ between 35W and 52W.

Aided by divergent flow aloft, the eastern end of East Pacific
monsoon trough is producing scattered to numerous heavy showers
and isolated strong thunderstorms across the southwestern
Caribbean Sea near Nicaragua, Costa Rica and Panama.

...GULF OF AMERICA...

Two surface troughs are triggering scattered showers and isolated
thunderstorms off Tampico, Mexico and across the eastern Gulf. A
weak surface ridge runs west-southwestward from the Florida 
Panhandle to near the Texas-Mexico border. Moderate with locally 
fresh E to SE winds and seas of 3 to 5 ft are evident at the Bay 
of Campeche and Florida Straits. Gentle to moderate E to SE winds 
and 1 to 3 ft seas prevail for the rest of the Gulf.

For the forecast, the weak surface ridge will persist across the 
Gulf waters through Friday. Fresh to locally strong NE to E winds
will pulse each afternoon and evening over the next several days 
north of the Yucatan Peninsula and in the eastern Bay of Campeche 
as a diurnal trough develops and tracks westward across the 
region. Moderate to locally fresh E to SE winds and slight to 
moderate seas can be expected elsewhere through Fri night. 

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

Convergent trade winds are generating widely scattered showers and
isolated thunderstorms from the east coast of the Yucatan
Peninsula eastward to near the Windward Passage. Refer to the
Monsoon Trough/ITCZ and Tropical Waves sections for additional
convection in the Caribbean Sea. Latest satellite derived wind 
data reveal fresh to locally strong easterly trade winds and 6 to
8 ft seas across the south-central and southeastern basin,
including the ABC Islands. Gentle to moderate E winds and seas of
3 to 5 ft are noted at the northwestern basin west of 84W. Light
to gentle winds and seas at 3 to 5 ft in NE swell exist near Costa
Rica and Panama. Moderate with locally fresh easterly trade winds
and 3 to 6 ft seas prevail elsewhere in the Caribbean Sea,
including the lee of Cuba and Windward Passage.

For the forecast, the pressure gradient between a 1023 mb high 
off northeastern Florida and lower pressure over the southwestern 
Caribbean will support fresh to strong trades over the central 
basin through the week. Locally near gale-force winds are likely 
off Colombia and in the Gulf of Venezuela Thu night. Moderate to 
rough seas are expected within these winds. Elsewhere, moderate to
fresh winds and moderate seas will prevail. Looking ahead, high 
pressure will develop and strengthen south of Bermuda Thu 
evening, resulting in the expansion of fresh to near-gale force 
winds to the Gulf of Honduras Thu night through Sat night. 

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A surface trough extends southwestward from a 1018 mb low 
pressure (Invest AL90) located north of the forecast area near 
33N55W to 25N68W. Widely scattered showers and isolated
thunderstorms are occurring up to 50 nm northwest, and 150 nm
southeast of the trough axis. Similar conditions are seen farther
southwest from 21N to 23N between 66w and the southeast Bahamas.
Refer to the Monsoon Trough/ITCZ and Tropical Waves sections at
the beginning for additional convection in the Atlantic Basin.

A subtropical ridge extends southwestward from a 1033 mb Azores
High across 31N40W to a 1023 mb high off northeastern Florida.
These features are sustaining gentle to locally moderate NE to SE
winds with 4 to 6 ft seas north of 24N between 35W and the 
Florida coast/central Bahamas. Farther south from 20N to 24N 
between 35W and the southeast Bahamas, moderate with locally fresh
ENE to ESE winds and seas of 5 to 8 ft are present. For the
tropical Atlantic from 06N to 20N west of 35W, moderate to fresh
with locally strong NE to E winds and seas at 7 to 10 ft exist.
Moderate to fresh with locally strong NNE to NE winds and 6 to 10
ft seas dominate waters north of 17N between the Canary Islands
and 35W. Gentle to moderate NW to NE winds with seas at 5 to 7 ft
in moderate northerly swell are noted near the Cabo Verde Islands
between the central Africa coast and 35W. For the remainder of the
Atlantic Basin west of 35W, gentle to moderate E to SE winds and
seas of 5 to 7 ft in mixed moderate swells prevail.

For the forecast west of 55W, the above mentioned trough will 
dissipate tonight into Tue, and the subtropical ridge will build 
westward towards the Florida peninsula. Under this weather 
pattern, moderate to fresh trades along with moderate to locally 
rough seas are expected south of 25N over the next few days, with 
gentle to locally moderate winds elsewhere. Otherwise, locally 
strong E winds are expected north of Hispaniola Wed through Fri. 

$$

Chan