059 
AXNT20 KNHC 242333
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0015 UTC Fri Jul 25 2025

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 
2300 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

An eastern Atlantic tropical wave is near 35W from 18N southward,
moving west at 10 kt. Scattered showers are noted from 11N to 14N
between 34W and 40W.

A central Atlantic tropical wave has been repositioned to near 
52W, from 17N southward. Scattered showers are seen from 13N to 
17N between 47W and 52W.

An eastern Caribbean tropical wave is near 65.5W from 18N 
southward into central Venezuela, moving west at 15 to 20 kt. 
Scattered moderate convection is present from northeastern 
Venezuela northward to the northeastern Caribbean Sea.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... 

A monsoon trough enters the Atlantic near 18N16W and extends to
12N46W. The ITCZ extends from 11N51W to 10N60W. Scattered moderate
convection is occurring from 08N to 13N between 37W and 49W, and
from 09N to 11N between 53W and 60W. 

The eastern end of the East Pacific monsoon trough is generating 
scattered heavy showers and isolated strong thunderstorms across
the southwestern Caribbean Sea.

...GULF OF AMERICA...

A surface trough curves southwestward from a 1015 mb low just 
east of New Orleans to 26N91W. Strong thunderstorms are occurring 
across portions of the northwestern Gulf off the coast of 
Louisiana. Elsewhere, an upper-level trough is leading to 
scattered thunderstorms off the coast of western Florida and 
through the Yucatan Channel. A 1018 mb high is dominating the 
southwestern Gulf. Gentle to moderate southerly winds and seas of 
1 to 3 ft are evident across the eastern Gulf. Light to gentle 
winds and seas of 1 to 2 ft prevail for the rest of the Gulf.

For the forecast, over the next day or so, the aforementioned 
broad area of low pressure over the north-central Gulf may see 
slow development while it moves generally westward to west- 
northwestward across the northern Gulf. By this weekend, the 
system is likely to move inland, ending its chances for 
development. Regardless of tropical cyclone formation, locally 
heavy rainfall is possible for portions of the NE and north- 
central Gulf. Elsewhere, moderate to fresh northeast to east winds
are forecast along the Yucatan Peninsula each afternoon and 
evening as a trough develops inland daily and shifts westward over
the Bay of Campeche at night. 

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

An upper-level trough runs northwestward from near the ABC Islands
to the northwestern Caribbean. Scattered moderate convection is 
occurring in the northwestern basin. Refer to the Monsoon 
Trough/ITCZ and Tropical Waves sections for additional convection 
in the Caribbean Sea. The pressure gradient between a Bermuda 
High and a 1010 mb Colombian low is leading to fresh to strong 
trades in the central basin along with 6 to 10 ft seas. Gentle to 
moderate E to SE winds and seas of 1 to 3 ft are evident across 
the northwestern basin. Light to gentle winds and 2 to 4 ft seas 
exist near Costa Rica and Panama. Moderate with locally fresh ENE 
to E winds and seas at 4 to 6 ft prevail elsewhere in the 
Caribbean Sea.

For the forecast, the pressure gradient between Atlantic high 
pressure and the Colombian low will support fresh to strong winds 
over the central Caribbean through the Sat. Fresh to strong 
northeast winds in the Windward Passage are expected through Sat. 
Elsewhere, moderate to fresh winds will prevail. 

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A surface trough runs west-southwestward from the north-central 
Atlantic across 31N52W to south of Bermuda near 28N62W. Widely 
scattered moderate convection is present up to 250 NM along either
side of this feature. Refer to the Monsoon Trough/ITCZ and 
Tropical Waves sections for additional convection in the Atlantic 
Basin. Moderate SW to W to NW winds and seas of 4 to 6 ft dominate
north of 27N between 44W and 65W. Otherwise, the Subtropical 
Ridge is maintaining light to gentle winds and 3 to 4 ft seas 
north of 26N between 65W and Florida. For the tropical Atlantic 
from 10N to 27N between 35W and the Bahamas/Lesser Antilles, 
gentle with locally moderate SE to E winds and 4 to 6 ft dominate 
this area. Farther east, moderate to fresh NE winds are occurring 
off the northwestern coast of Africa, with strong winds occurring 
downwind of the Canary Islands.

For the forecast west of 55W, high pressure will dominate the 
weather pattern across the forecast region. N of Hispaniola, 
including the approaches to the Windward Passage, fresh to strong 
winds and moderate seas are expected through Sat. Elsewhere, 
gentle to moderate anticyclonic flow along with mostly moderate 
seas are expected. 

$$
ADAMS