646 
AXNT20 KNHC 192220
TWDAT 

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0015 UTC Tue May 20 2025

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 
2130 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A tropical wave continues to move away from the coast of West 
Africa. The low amplitude wave extends from 03N to 09N and is 
along about 23W, moving west around 15 kt. Scattered moderate 
isolated strong convection is noted from 03N to 06N between 24W 
and 29W. 

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... 

The monsoon trough exits the coast of western Africa near 10N14W
along the coast of Guinea and extends southwestward to near 
07N16W. The ITCZ then continues from 07N16W to 06N21W, where it 
is broken by the tropical wave. The ITCZ then redevelops at 05N27W
and continues westward to the coast of French Guiana near 05N52W.
Aside from the convection associated with the tropical wave, 
scattered moderate convection is noted from 02N to 06N between 
17W and 20W, and south of 08N west of 43W. 

The East Pacific monsoon trough extends across the far SW
Caribbean, and is aiding in the development of scattered moderate
convection across the SW Caribbean south of 12N.

...GULF OF AMERICA...

Weak high pressure near Tampa, Florida extends a ridge westward 
across the N Gulf coast. The pressure gradient between this 
ridge and lower pressure across northern Mexico is supporting 
fresh to strong SE winds across much of the Gulf west of 90W. 
Winds are moderate or weaker elsewhere over the basin. Seas 
across the Gulf range from 4-7 ft to the west of 88W and 1-4 ft
east of 88W. No significant deep convection is occurring this
afternoon. Otherwise, smoke from agricultural fires over 
southeastern Mexico continues to create hazy conditions over the 
west-central and southwestern Gulf, including the Bay of Campeche.

For the forecast, the pressure gradient between the high pressure
ridge and lower pressure in Texas and in eastern Mexico will 
maintain moderate to fresh SE winds and moderate seas across the 
western Gulf through Tue. A weak cold front will move into the N 
Gulf Tue night, stall, then lift north and dissipate Wed night. 
Yet another weak front will sink into the NE Gulf Thu night into 
Fri. High pressure should prevail this coming weekend. E winds 
will pulse fresh to strong along and just north of the Yucatan 
Peninsula each afternoon and evening through the period as a 
trough develops daily and drifts westward. Smoke from agricultural
fires in southeastern Mexico will continue to maintain hazy sky 
conditions across the west central and SW Gulf through the period.

...CARIBBEAN SEA... 

High pressure centered just northeast of the Bahamas extends a 
weak ridge across the waters north of the basin, while a surface 
trough extends from the SW N Atlantic to near Puerto Rico. The
weak pressure gradient is forcing only gentle to moderate trades
this afternoon. Seas are 2-5 ft across the Caribbean. Scattered 
moderate convection is occurring across the SW Caribbean south of 
12N.

For the forecast, moderate winds will continue across the basin 
west of 75W through Tue, except for fresh to strong E to SE winds 
pulsing during the late afternoon through night near the Gulf of 
Honduras throughout the next several days. Moderate to locally 
fresh trades will prevail across the basin E of 75W through Tue. 
The surface trough north of Puerto Rico will weaken and drift 
northeast during the next few days, and gradually allow high 
pressure to strengthen north of the basin. Look for increasing 
trades and building seas across the eastern part of the basin 
beginning Tue night, expanding westward to the central part of the
basin by Wed night, reaching the coast of Nicaragua by the end of
the week. Meanwhile, moderate trades and seas will prevail in the
Tropical N Atlantic, freshening by the end of the week. 

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A deep-layered low pressure extends from 25N60W across Puerto 
Rico and into the NE Caribbean, and is supporting scattered 
showers and thunderstorms south of 27N between 55W and 62W. An 
associated surface trough also persists in this same area, while 
high pressure is just northeast of the Bahamas. Due to the very
weak pressure gradient in the area, winds are moderate or weaker
west of 50W. Seas are 2-5 ft west of 50W north of 20N, and are 6-7
ft west of 50W south of 20N. Farther east, a 1025 mb Azores High
is centered near 30N37W. A moderate pressure gradient between the
high and lower pressure over the ITCZ/monsoon trough is causing 
moderate to fresh NE to E trades south of 25N east of 50W, except 
fresh to strong NE winds along the Western Sahara/Morocco coasts 
and between the Canary Islands. Seas are 6-8 ft east of 50W, 
except 3-6 ft north of 25N between 20W-50W. Scattered moderate 
convection is noted from 25N-30N between 45W-52W in association 
with an upper level low.

For the forecast west of 55W, the deep-layered low pressure will 
gradually weaken through Tue as it shifts eastward, allowing for 
the surface trough to weaken and shift NE, and showers and 
thunderstorms shifting eastward ahead of it. High pressure located
to the west of the trough and east of the Bahamas will support 
gentle to moderate winds over most of the area west of the trough 
through the period, except for moderate westerly winds north of 
28N due to a passing weak frontal trough. Moderate to fresh NE to 
E winds will pulse north of Hispaniola and in the Windward Passage
each night for the next few days. Looking ahead, fresh to locally
strong SW to W winds and building seas are expected over the NW 
portion of the area and northeast of the Bahamas Tue night and 
Wed, ahead of a cold front moving off the southeastern United 
States coast Wed night. The front will reach from near 31N70W to 
the NW Bahamas by late Thu, then weaken as it reaches from near 
31N68W to just E of the NW Bahamas by Sat morning. 

$$
Landsea/Lewitsky