000
AXNT20 KNHC 292255
TWDAT 

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0015 UTC Tue Dec 30 2025

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 
2230 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Gulf of America Gale Warning: A strong cold front is analyzed from
near Perry, Florida to Tampico, Mexico. Earlier scatterometer 
data confirmed gale force N to NW winds following the front over
the western Gulf, and gale force winds are likely reaching south
of the Rio Grande off northwest Mexico. These conditions will 
expand to areas offshore of Tampico and Veracruz later this 
evening and tonight. Prolonged gale force winds and significant 
very rough seas will persist over the western Bay of Campeche 
through late Tue night. Seas will peak around 20 ft off Veracruz 
Tue. Conditions will improve from north to south by midweek.

Central Atlantic Gale and Significant Swell: A cold front, 
stemming from a storm-force low north of the area, enters the 
discussion waters near 31N37W and then curves southwestward and 
westward to near 20N67W, where it becomes a stationary front that
extends northwestward toward the northern Bahamas. Scattered 
moderate convection producing gale-force winds is seen within 90
nm ahead of the front north of 29N. Strong to near- gale force 
winds with frequent gusts to gale force are on either side of the 
front north of 23N between 35W and 55W. Large N swell generated 
from the storm system is producing very rough seas greater than 12
ft over the forecast waters north of 22N between 35W and 60W. 
These very rough seas will shift eastward while gradually 
subsiding from south to north through the week. 

Please read the latest High Seas Forecast issued by the National 
Hurricane Center at website:
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml for more
information.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough reaches the Atlantic through the coast of
Guinea near 10N13W and continues to 04N20W. The ITCZ continues 
from 04N20W to 05N35W to 02N50W. No significant convection is
observed along the monsoon trough or ITCZ.

...GULF OF AMERICA...

Please read the Special Features section above regarding gale 
warnings.

A strong cold front is analyzed from near Perry, Florida to 
Tampico, Mexico. In addition to the gale- force winds following 
the front over the western Gulf, strong to near-gale force winds
and building seas cover the Gulf elsewhere north of the front.
Gentle breezes and slight seas are noted south of the front. A few
showers and thunderstorms are noted along a surface trough  
analyzed over the Bay of Campeche, but no significant convection
is noted elsewhere.

For the forecast, elsewhere behind the front, widespread strong 
to near- gale force winds and rough seas are expected, with winds 
and seas slowly diminishing from north to south Tue into early 
Wed. High pressure will build over the northern Gulf around 
midweek, supporting moderate or weaker winds and slight seas over 
the basin. 

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

The pressure gradient between high pressure n of the area and the
Colombian low is supporting fresh to strong winds and seas of 
7-10 ft over the south central to SW Caribbean. Moderate to fresh
winds and seas of 5-7 ft prevail over the eastern and north 
central Caribbean. Moderate winds and moderate seas are noted 
elsewhere. 

For the forecast, fresh trade winds will occur over the central 
Caribbean into early Wed as high pressure prevails north of the 
basin. Winds will pulse to strong speeds in the south-central 
Caribbean, and may reach near-gale force offshore of Colombia late
tonight. Rough seas are expected near and to the west of the 
strongest winds. Over the Atlantic waters, rough seas in N swell 
are expected through late Thu before seas subside. Looking ahead, 
a cold front is slated to enter the northwestern Caribbean on Tue,
and fresh to locally strong N winds and rough seas are expected 
in the wake of the front, including through the Yucatan Channel. 
The front will weaken and eventually dissipate over the 
northwestern basin by late week. 

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

See the Special Features section above for details on a gale 
warning and a significant swell event in the central Atlantic.

In addition to the conditions described in the Special Features
section, rough seas 8 to 10 ft cover the waters north of 20N 
between 20W and 60W, up to the area of very rough seas outlined 
above. Moderate to locally fresh winds, and seas of 6-8 ft are 
over the deep tropics south of 13N between 25W and 60W. 
Elsewhere, winds are moderate or weaker with moderate seas. 

For the forecast west of 55W, very rough seas in N swell will prevail north of 22N 
and east of 62W through Tue morning as a strong cold front in the 
central Atlantic moves eastward. Widespread rough seas associated 
with this front will continue east of 65W today, with seas slowly 
subsiding from west to east through midweek. Elsewhere, fresh to 
strong W to SW winds offshore of northern and central Florida will
prevail this afternoon as a strong cold front moves through the 
southern United States. The front is slated to push off the coast 
by this evening, with fresh to strong W to NW winds and rough seas
expected in the wake of the front. The front will progress 
eastward through midweek, with fresh to strong SW winds likely 
ahead of the front, and fresh to locally strong NW winds following
the front. Rough seas associated with the front are expected 
north of 28N, with seas subsiding from west to east Tue through 
Wed. Looking ahead, the next cold front moving off the coast of 
the United States is forecast to enter the northwest tropical 
Atlantic late this week, with increasing winds and building seas 
likely near and behind the front. 

$$
Christensen