AXNT20 KNHC 172345
Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
745 PM EDT Sat Aug 17 2019
Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.
Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
An Atlantic Ocean tropical wave is along 29/30W, from 03N-19N,
moving W at 15 kt. Scattered moderate convection is from 04N-09N
A Caribbean Sea tropical wave is along 62/63W from 05N-18N,
moving W at 15 kt. Widely scattered moderate convection is E of
the wave axis from 10N-18N between 56W-62W. Scattered moderate
convection is inland over Venezuela from 05N-10N between 60W-65W.
A Caribbean Sea tropical wave is along 85W from 05N-20N, moving W
at 15 kt. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is over
Central America from 07N-16N between 79W-89W. Expect the wave to
produce enhanced rains over Central America and the Yucatan
Peninsula through Sunday.
The monsoon trough extends from Senegal near 14N17W to 08N33W to
07N38W. The ITCZ extends from 08N38W to Venezuela near 09N60W.
Aside from the convection mentioned in the Tropical Waves section,
scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is along the
coast of W Africa from 10N-16N between 13W-18W. Scattered moderate
convection is from 06N-09N between 40W-47W.
GULF OF MEXICO...
The tail end of a stationary front extends from the Florida
Panhandle near 31N85W to central Louisiana near 31N92W. Scattered
moderate convection is the N Gulf of Mexico from 24N-31N between
80W-93W to include the Florida Peninsula. Scattered moderate to
strong convection is over the E Bay of Campeche and S Mexico from
15N-21N between 89W-93W. 10-15 kt southerly surface winds are over
the Gulf. Of note in the upper levels, an upper level high is
centered over the W Gulf near 27N97W. Upper level diffluence is
over N Florida enhancing convection.
Disorganized convection over the NE Gulf of Mexico are associated
with a stalled front over the SE United States. Winds and seas
may be higher in and near the convection. Moderate to fresh SW
winds are expected over the NE Gulf through Sun evening. Fresh to
strong winds will pulse over the waters just W of the Yucatan
Peninsula through Mon. The northern portion of a tropical wave
will move from the western Caribbean Sea to the Bay of Campeche
Wed accompanied by ample deep moisture. Otherwise, high pressure
will build W across the area through Wed night.
Two tropical waves are affecting the Caribbean Sea. See the
Tropical Waves section above for details.
Besides the convection mentioned in the tropical wave section,
widely scattered moderate convection is over Puerto Rico,
Hispaniola, Jamaica, and Cuba. Elsewhere, scattered moderate to
isolated strong convection is over N Venezuela and N Colombia.
Of note in the upper levels, an upper level low is centered S of
the Cayman Islands near 19N80W. Upper level diffluence is over
Central America from Honduras to Costa Rica enhancing convection.
Strong winds are expected over the Windward Passage tonight. A
tropical wave currently near 85W will move W of the Caribbean
tonight. The wave will combine with high pressure N of the area to
support fresh to strong winds over the SW Caribbean tonight, and
over the NW Caribbean through Sun. Fresh to strong winds will
resume over the south central Caribbean Sun evening as the next
tropical wave currently located along 62W/63W moves W.
A surface trough is over the W Atlantic from 29N65W to 21N67W.
Isolated moderate convection is from 21N-30N between 62W-71W. A
1024 mb high is over the central Atlantic near 33N48W. Of note in
the upper levels, an upper level low is centered over the W
Atlantic near 24N60W. Isolated moderate convection is from 22N-
30N between 55W-62W.
Surface ridging will remain in place over the western Atlantic N
of 25N through Thu. An embedded trough will track W across the
western Atlantic this weekend, then over the western Bahamas Mon
before moving inland over Florida Tue. Gentle to moderate E to SE
winds will generally prevail N of 22N, with moderate to fresh E
winds expected S of 22N through most of the forecast period. Fresh
to locally strong winds will pulse at night between the Turks and
Caicos Islands and Hispaniola through Wed.