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Atlantic Tropical Weather Discussion



000
AXNT20 KNHC 081803
TWDAT 

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
103 PM EST Sun Dec 8 2019

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 
1745 UTC.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... 

The monsoon trough passes through the coastal areas of Liberia
near 05N09W to 03N23W. The ITCZ continues from 02N37W to 03N50W. 
Scattered moderate convection is seen near the coast of Liberia
extending offshore to about 250 nm, and additional activity is 
seen from 02N-06N between 15W-22W north of the monsoon trough. 
North of the ITCZ, scattered showers are possible with broken
to overcast mix of clouds west of 32W to the coast of Brazil.

GULF OF MEXICO...

A 1018 mb low is located over the northern Gulf near 29N87W. A 
stationary front extends from 29N82W to the low to 25N90W, then
continues as a dissipating stationary front to 26N96W. A surface
trough extends southward from the low from 30N88W to 23N86W. Radar
indicates showers and tstorms are present east of the low pressure
from 28N to the coast of Alabama and west of 86W. The most recent
ASCAT pass shows moderate to fresh SE winds in the NE Gulf with 
gentle wind speeds across much of the remainder of the basin.

A weak stationary front extending from the Florida Big Bend SW 
will dissipate later today. Fresh to locally strong S return flow
will develop Mon into Mon night in the W Gulf ahead of a strong 
cold front. This cold front will push into the NW Gulf on Tue, 
then extend from the Florida Big Bend to the Bay of Campeche by 
Wed afternoon. Gale force NW to N winds are possible west of the 
front along the coast of Mexico Tue night and Wed. The front will 
likely stall across the Gulf and begin weakening Thu. 

CARIBBEAN SEA...

Ridging at 500 mb prevails across much of the Caribbean. Scattered
moderate convection along the coast of Panama, Costa Rica and 
Nicaragua is been enhance by the Pacific monsoon trough south of
13N. Scattered showers and tstorms are also over Hispaniola and
adjacent coastal waters, enhanced by moisture from the tail end 
of a stationary front that ends over the Atlantic near 21N67W. The
latest ASCAT pass shows moderate to fresh trades in the south-
central Caribbean off the coast of Colombia. Fresh N-NE winds are 
seen off the east coast of Nicaragua and eastern Honduras, with 
similar winds also seen in the Windward Passage.

A weak Bermuda High is promoting generally moderate to fresh trades
across the region through early Mon. Winds will strengthen and 
seas will build over the central and eastern Caribbean as well as 
the tropical N Atlantic Mon afternoon through Wed night as a 
stronger Bermuda High dominates the SW North Atlantic. Conditions 
are likely to again become more quiescent on Thu, as the high 
moves well to the east of the waters.

ATLANTIC OCEAN... 

A stationary front is over the western Atlantic from 31N73W to 
29N80W. A weak 1019 mb low is near 27N73W with a surface trough 
extending southward from the low to 25N72W. Isolated showers are 
from 26N-29N between 69W-74W. A stationary front extends from 
32N54W to 21N67W. Scattered moderate convection is within 120 nm 
either side of the stationary front, north of 25N and east of 58W.
Latest ASCAT shows a weak surface trough from 11N49W to 18N52W. 
Scattered showers are in the vicinity of the trough. The remainder
of the eastern Atlantic is under surface high pressure ridging, 
anchored by a 1033 mb high near 36N25W.

A stationary front over the far northern waters will lift 
northward as a warm front later today. Fresh to strong easterly 
flow will develop across the waters northeast of the Bahamas 
tonight through Mon as a strong Bermuda High passes eastward 
across the western Atlantic. A cold front is expected to move off 
the southeast U.S. coast Wed and Wed night, then stall over the 
northern waters Thu into Thu night. 

$$
MMT