031 
AXNT20 KNHC 231110
TWDAT 

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1215 UTC Wed Jul 23 2025

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 
1045 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A far eastern Atlantic tropical wave has its axis near 24W from
03N to 18N, with weak low pressure of 1015 mb on the wave axis
near 11N. It is moving westward at about 10 kt. Scattered 
moderate convection is seen from 11N to 14N between 23W and 25W. 

A central Atlantic tropical wave has its axis near 41W from 04N to 
17N, moving westward at 10 to 15 kt. Isolated showers and
thunderstorms are seen from 08N to 12N between 38W and 42W.

A large tropical wave is east of the Lesser Antilles with its axis 
near 58W from 04N to 18N. It is moving westward at 15 to 20 kt. 
Scattered showers and isolated are evident from 10N to 16N between 
54W and 61W.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... 

The monsoon trough axis enters the Atlantic near 19N16.5W and 
continues southwestward to low pressure near 11N24W 1015 mb
and to 09N30W to 10N40W and to 09N45W, where it transitions 
to the ITCZ to 08N48W and to 08N55W. Aside from convection 
related to the tropical waves, scattered moderate convection
within 60 nm north of the trough between 30.5W and 33.5W and 
also from 05N to 10N between 45W and 53W.
 
...GULF OF AMERICA...

The presence of a mid-level low over northern and central Florida
along with a surface trough that extends from north-central 
Florida south-southwestward to near 26N84W is presently resulting
in a very unstable atmospheric environment over the eastern Gulf.
Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is located 
from 27N to 31N between 86W and 90W. A weak 1018 mb high center 
is analyzed over the north-central Gulf at 28N90W. This is 
allowing for moderate or weaker anticyclonic winds and seas of 
less than 3 ft, except for moderate to fresh NNE winds off the 
Yucatan Peninsula.

For the forecast, weak high pressure is over the central and 
western Gulf while a surface trough extends from north-central 
Florida south-southwestward to near 26N84W. The trough will 
gradually shift westward through Fri as low pressure forms along 
its northern portion. The pressure gradient between the low and 
Atlantic ridging will support increasing winds to fresh speeds 
across the NE Gulf on Thu and Thu night and across the north- 
central part of the basin on Fri. Scattered to numerous showers 
and thunderstorms also expected in association with this system 
across most of the NE and north-central Gulf. Elsewhere, fresh 
northeast to east winds are forecast along the Yucatan Peninsula 
each afternoon and evening through Thu before increasing to fresh 
to strong speeds afterward as a trough develops inland daily and 
shifts westward over the Bay of Campeche at night. 

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

The pressure gradient between high pressure north of the region 
and the Colombia low pressure is maintaining fresh to strong 
northeast to east winds across the south-central and southwestern
Caribbean along with seas of 5 to 8 ft. Moderate to locally fresh
trades and seas of 4 to 6 ft continue over eastern section of the
sea. Moderate or weaker, with seas 2 to 4 ft are over the 
northwestern section of the sea.

satellite imagery shows broken to overcast mid to high level
clouds over the northwestern Caribbean north of 18N between 
78W and 85W. Isolated showers and thunderstorms are over this same 
area. An area of scattered moderate convection is to the east from 
14N to 18N between 65W and 70W due an upper-level disturbance that
is translating westward over this part of the basin. This activity
is increasing with time. Scattered showers and isolated
thunderstorms are seen from 12N to 16N east of 65W to the vicinity 
of the Lesser Antilles.

For the forecast, the pressure gradient between the Atlantic high
pressure and the Colombian low will continue to support fresh to 
strong winds over the south-central Caribbean through Wed. Fresh 
to locally strong northeast winds and moderate to rough seas in 
the Windward Passage are expected to continue through the forecast
period. A large tropical wave, currently located about 200 nm 
east of the Lesser Antilles will reach the Lesser Antilles late 
this afternoon, then move into the eastern Caribbean tonight and 
pass just south of Puerto Rico on Thu morning. Scattered showers 
and isolated thunderstorms ahead of the wave extend into the 
eastern Caribbean Sea. Fresh to strong easterly winds and moderate
to rough seas will spread westward through the central Caribbean 
Wed through Fri. Another tropical wave accompanied by scattered 
showers and thunderstorms is expected to move through the Tropical
N Atlantic Fri though early Sat, and through the eastern Caribbean
afterward through Sun night. 

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

High pressure of 1029 mb is well north of the discussion area
near the Azores. A ridge stretches southwestward from this high 
to 29N47W, then weakens as it continues to South Florida and the 
Florida Keys. The pressure gradient related to the ridge is 
generally allowing for moderate or weaker winds and moderate seas 
over the subtropical region. The exception is south of 22N between
50W and 78W, where fresh trades are present. Fresh to locally 
strong east to southeast winds are between Hispaniola and the 
southeastern Bahamas. Seas with these winds are 4 to 6 ft. Farther 
east, fresh to strong northeast winds prevail between the Canary 
Islands and the NW coast of Africa along with seas of 5 to 8 ft.

satellite imagery shows scattered showers and thunderstorms
confined to south of about 26N and west of 72W to along 
the southeast Florida coast and over the Straits of Florida. 
Water vapor imagery reveals that an upper-level low or Tropical 
Upper Tropospheric Trough (TUTT) is located in the vicinity of 
the NW Bahamas. This TUTT will continue to slowly propagate 
westward today. Isolated showers and thunderstorms are noted 
elsewhere west of 69W.

For the forecast west of 55W, the Bermuda-Azores High will 
continue to dominate the weather pattern across the forecast 
region through this evening producing a gentle to moderate 
anticyclonic flow along with mostly moderate seas. Fresh to strong
winds and moderate seas from just north of Hispaniola to 22N, 
including the approaches to the Windward Passage, are expected to 
continue through the rest of the forecast period. A frontal 
boundary is forecast to reach the NE waters toward the end of the 
work-week and dissipate. Little change is expected in winds and 
seas. 

$$
Aguirre