000
AXNT20 KNHC 181755
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1815 UTC Sun May 18 2025

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 
1800 UTC.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... 

The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic near 12N15W, then curves 
southwestward to 05N18W. The ITCZ continues from that point to 
03N51. Scattered moderate to strong convection is occurring
along and near both of these features, generally south of 10N
between the W coast of Africa and 60W. 

The East Pacific monsoon trough extends across the SW Caribbean to
the Colombian Low. Scattered moderate convection is occurring in
the far SW Caribbean generally south of 12N.

...GULF OF AMERICA...

Broad surface ridging extends from the central Atlantic westward
to the eastern Gulf. The pressure between this ridge and lower
pressure across central Mexico is supporting moderate to fresh SE
to S winds across the Gulf W of 90W, and moderate or weaker winds
across the Gulf E of 90W. Seas of 4-6 ft are analyzed across the
Gulf W of 90W, and seas of 1-4 ft are analyzed E of 90W. Smoke 
from agricultural fires over southeastern Mexico continues to 
create hazy conditions at the west-central and southwestern Gulf, 
including the Bay of Campeche.

For the forecast, the pressure gradient between high pressure 
over the eastern Gulf and relatively lower pressure in Texas and 
in eastern Mexico will maintain moderate to fresh SE winds and 
moderate seas across the western Gulf through Tue. Pulsing fresh 
to strong E winds are likely along and just north of the Yucatan 
Peninsula each afternoon and evening through the period as a 
trough develops daily and drifts westward. Smoke from agricultural
fires in southeastern Mexico will continue to maintain hazy sky 
conditions across the west central and SW Gulf through the period.

...CARIBBEAN SEA... 

An upper-level trough interacting with a surface trough analyzed
from the Anegada Passage to near 14N65W is aiding in the 
development of scattered showers and thunderstorms across the E
Caribbean from 67W eastward. See the Monsoon Trough/ITCZ section
for details on convection in the SW Caribbean. Recent
scatterometer data indicate locally fresh to strong E winds in the
far E Caribbean between Antigua and Guadeloupe, between Guadeloupe
and Dominica, and also off the NE coast of Venezuela. Moderate to
fresh trades prevail in the central Caribbean as well as the Gulf
of Honduras, with moderate or weaker winds prevailing elsewhere.
Seas are 4-6 ft E of 76W, and 2-5 ft to the W of 76W. 

For the forecast, fresh to strong E to SE winds will pulse in the
Gulf of Honduras during late afternoons and nights through the 
period. Moderate to fresh trades and rough seas will persist over 
the Atlantic waters near and east of the Lesser Antilles through 
tonight. Increasing trades along with building seas are expected 
across the eastern part of the basin tonight. These conditions 
will shift westward to the central part of the basin by around 
midweek.

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Recent satellite imagery shows a broad wave, potentially a
tropical wave, slowly emerging off the coast of Africa, likely 
helping to enhance some convection along the monsoon trough near 
16-17W. An upper-level trough interacting with a pair of surface 
troughs between 60W and 66W is aiding in the development of 
scattered showers and thunderstorms in a region from the Lesser 
Antilles to about 31N between 55W and 65W. Farther south, this 
same upper trough is also supporting scattered moderate convection
along and near the northern coast of South America from Venezuela
to far northern Brazil. Recent scatterometer data indicate fresh 
to strong E winds within the areas of strongest convection.

Otherwise, a 1025 mb high centered near 29N36W extends a
broad ridge across much of the Atlantic. Moderate to fresh trades
prevail across much of the Atlantic from 06N to 20N between the W
coast of Africa and the Lesser Antilles, as well as from 20N to 
25N between Africa and 45W. Moderate seas prevail across these 
regions as well, with localized seas up to 9 ft occurring from 07N
to 17N between 40W and 58W. The remainder of the Atlantic is 
seeing moderate or weaker winds and seas of 3-5 ft. 

For the forecast west of 55W, scattered showers and thunderstorms
S of 27N and E of 65W are associated to a surface trough and an 
upper- level cutoff low that is in that general area. The upper- 
low will gradually weaken through Mon as it generally shifts 
eastward allowing for the surface trough to lose its support. This
should lead to a decreasing trend of the showers and 
thunderstorms. High pressure extending west-southwestward from the
central Atlantic to the central Bahamas will support light to 
gentle winds over most of the area W of 63W through the period. 
Moderate to fresh northeast to east winds will pulse north of 
Hispaniola and in the Windward Passage each night well into next 
week. Looking ahead, fresh to strong SW to W winds and building 
seas are expected over the NW portion of the area and northeast of
the Bahamas around the middle of the week in response to a late 
season cold front that is anticipated to move off the southeastern
United States coast Wed night and reach from near 31N75W to the 
NW Bahamas by late Thu. Fresh W to NW winds will follow the front.
The front may be preceded by scattered showers and thunderstorms.

$$
Adams