650 
AXNT20 KNHC 042356
TWDAT 

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0015 UTC Sat Jul 5 2025

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 
2300 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Tropical Depression Three:
Tropical Depression Three is centered near 30.8N 79.0W at 04/0000
UTC or 130 nm SSE of Charleston South Carolina, moving N at 2 kt.
Estimated minimum central pressure is 1012 mb. Maximum sustained 
wind speed is 30 kt with gusts to 40 kt. Scattered moderate to 
strong convection is occurring north of 29N between 76W and 80W. 
The depression has recently been stationary, but is forecast to 
move toward the north near 2 mph later this evening. A slow motion
toward the north-northwest is then expected on Saturday, followed
by a motion toward the north Saturday night and Sunday. On the 
forecast track, the center of the depression is expected to move 
near or over the coast of South Carolina Sunday morning. Three 
will move to 31.3N 79.1W Sat morning, strengthen to a tropical 
storm near 31.7N 79.5W Sat afternoon, 32.4N 80.0W Sun morning, 
move inland and weaken to a tropical depression near 33.7N 80.0W 
Sun afternoon, inland to 35.0N 79.6W Mon morning, and dissipate 
Mon afternoon. 

Please read the latest HIGH SEAS FORECAST issued by the National 
Hurricane Center at website - 
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml and the latest Three
NHC Forecast/Advisory and Public Advisory at www.hurricanes.gov 
for more details. Please refer to wwww.hurricanes.gov for more 
details.

Gale Warning E of 35W: 
A tight pressure gradient between a 1035 mb high pressure system
located NE of the Azores and lower pressures in NW Africa will
support gale-force northeast winds with severe gusts close and 
between the Canary Islands until at least 06/00 UTC according to 
Meteo France. Seas will be moderate to rough, peaking around 10 
ft. Mariners are also advised that visibility may be reduced to 
moderate or poor due to sand haze, especially in the far E part.

For more details, please visit the Meteo France High Seas Forecast
listed on the website https://wwmiws.wmo.int

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A far eastern Atlantic tropical wave has its axis along 26W from 
06N to 19N, moving westward at 10 to 15 kt. A weak 1012 mb low is
along the wave axis near 19N. This wave remains surrounded by a 
dry and stable atmospheric environment. Only scattered showers and
a few thunderstorms are within 120 nm either side of the wave 
from 08N to 10N.

An central Atlantic tropical wave has its axis near 38.5W from 
04N to 16N. It is moving westward around 5 kt. A dry and stable 
atmospheric environment also surrounds this wave. Only isolated 
showers are near its southern part.

An eastern Caribbean tropical wave has its axis is along 67W 
south of 18N. It is moving westward at 10 to 15 kt. This wave is 
positioned to the southeast of a broad upper-level trough that 
reaches from the central Atlantic to the central Caribbean. Upper-
level divergence is helping to sustain an area of scattered 
moderate convection from 15N to 17N within 200 NM west of the
wave. Isolated showers and thunderstorms are elsewhere south of 
15N between 65W and 70W.

A western Caribbean tropical wave has its axis along 86.5W south 
of 19N to inland Central America and reaching farther south to 
the eastern Pacific near 05N. No significant convection is
occurring over the water near this wave.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... 

The monsoon trough axis enters the Atlantic near 18N16W, and 
continues westward through a weak 1012 mb low near 19N26W and 
southwestward 07N43W, where it transitions to the ITCZ to near 
05N51W. Aside from convection associated to the tropical waves, no
significant convection is occurring near these features.

...GULF OF AMERICA...

A trough extends from central Florida to 29N90W just off the coast
of southeastern Louisiana, while a weak 1018 mb high is noted 
over the central Gulf, and dominates the remainder of the basin. 
This synoptic set-up is supporting light to gentle west to 
northwest winds east of 90W and gentle to moderate southeast to 
south winds west of 90W. Seas of 3 ft or less are across the 
basin, except for slightly higher seas of 3 to 4 ft over the west-
central Gulf waters.

For the forecast, a surface trough will prevail across the NE 
Gulf through the weekend. Scattered showers and thunderstorms will
continue to develop along this trough over the waters near 
Florida. Weak high pressure will then prevail into early next 
week. Fresh NE to E winds will pulse along and just north of the 
Yucatan Peninsula each afternoon and evening through early next 
week as a trough develops inland daily and then drifts westward 
over the Bay of Campeche at night. 

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

Two tropical waves are moving across the Caribbean Sea. Please 
see the Tropical Wave section for more details.

The pressure gradient between central Atlantic high pressure 
and low pressure in Colombia is resulting in fresh to strong 
trades over most of the central part of the basin. Seas over 
these waters are 6 to 9 ft. Moderate to fresh trades are elsewhere
east of about 80W along with seas of 5 to 7 ft. Elsewhere, 
moderate or weaker winds and slight to moderate seas are 
prevalent. 

For the forecast, the pressure gradient between the Atlantic 
ridge and the Colombian low will continue to support pulsing fresh
to strong trades and rough seas across the south-central 
Caribbean through the forecast period. Gentle to moderate winds 
and slight to moderate seas will prevail elsewhere, with the 
exception of moderate to fresh E winds in the Gulf of Honduras 
late Sat through Tue. 
 
...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A Gale Warning is in effect E of 35W. Please see the Special 
Features section for more details. Two tropical waves are moving 
across the tropical Atlantic. Please see the Tropical Wave 
section for more information. 

Unsettled weather conditions continue across the waters just E of
Florida and the NW Bahamas as Tropical Depression Three drifts 
northward. A broad swath of fresh to near-gale south to southwest 
winds are located to the east and southeast of the low pressure, 
namely N of 28N between 75W and 81W. Seas over these waters are 4 
to 6 ft, but may be higher in and near convection. Moderate to 
locally fresh east to southeast winds are S of 28N between 55W and
78W. Seas over these waters are 4 to 5 ft. Farther E, a trough is
analyzed from near 27N63W to 20N68W. This feature is under a 
broad upper-level trough that is helping to initiate widely 
scattered moderate to isolated strong convection from 23N to 30N 
between 60W and 69W. To the NE of this area of convection, a 
trough extends from near 31N40W to 27N47W. 

The remainder of the Atlantic domain is under the influence of a 
strong 1035 mb high pressure system located NE of the Azores. The 
present pressure gradient between this high and lower pressures 
over the NW Africa is allowing for fresh to strong northeast winds
north of about 20N and east of 31W, including between the Canary 
Islands, where winds are reaching minimal gale force, and along 
coastal Western Sahara. Rough seas are associated with these 
winds. Elsewhere, gentle to moderate winds and moderate seas 
prevail.

For the forecast west of 55W, Tropical Depression Three 
will move to 31.3N 79.1W Sat morning, strengthen to a tropical 
storm near 31.7N 79.5W Sat afternoon, 32.4N 80.0W Sun morning, 
move inland and weaken to a tropical depression near 33.7N 80.0W 
Sun afternoon, inland to 35.0N 79.6W Mon morning, and dissipate 
Mon afternoon. The main impacts of Three will remain north of 
31N. High pressure will prevail elsewhere. This pattern will 
support generally gentle to moderate winds except for fresh to 
strong winds pulsing off the northern coast of Hispaniola by Sat 
night. 

$$
ADAMS