AXNT20 KNHC 221734
Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
134 PM EDT Mon Oct 22 2018
Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.
Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
An eastern Caribbean tropical wave is along 66W from 04N-21N,
moving west at 15 kt. Total Precipitable Water imagery shows
moderate to high moisture content in the wave's environment.
Scattered moderate convection is noted inland mainly south of 12N,
affecting N Venezuela.
A Central America/EPAC tropical wave extends its axis along 90W
and south of 16N, moving west at 10-15 kt. The wave corresponds
with a 700 mb trough, as indicated by model analyses. Scattered
showers are within 90 nm of the wave axis to include Belize and
The monsoon trough extends from the coast of Africa near 10N14W
to 07N20W. The ITCZ extends from 07N20W to 07N30W to the coast of
South America near 10N60W. Widely scattered moderate convection
is from 02N-12N between 23W-31W. Widely scattered moderate
convection is also from 12N-21N between 39W-49W. Similar
convection is near Trinidad from 07N-12N between 58W-63W.
GULF OF MEXICO...
A stationary front extends from the Straits of Florida near
24N80W to the central Gulf of Mexico near 25N90W to 27N95W to a
1015 mb low over the NW Gulf near 25N96W. Scattered moderate
convection is within 180 nm of the low. Scattered showers are
within 120 nm of the fronts. Fresh to strong northerly winds are
depicted in scatterometer data over the northwest Gulf waters
mainly north of the low and front. Gentle to moderate winds
prevail over the remainder of the basin.
Expect high pressure W of the front to weaken Tue through early
Thu and allow the front to dissipate. A new low will develop over
Texas Wed night, then drag a new cold front across the Gulf as it
moves to the SE United States by Thu night.
Two tropical waves are over the basin. See the section above for
The East Pacific monsoon trough extends eastward along 10N from
Costa Rica to northern Colombia near 75W. Widely scattered
moderate convection prevails along this trough. Farther east,
Total Precipitable Water imagery shows high moisture content over
eastern Venezuela and southeastern Caribbean where another
tropical wave prevails. With these, scattered moderate convection
is south of 12N mainly affecting Venezuela.
Fresh to strong NE winds are forecast to pulse in the Windward
Passage and south of Hispaniola during the evening and night hours
today and tonight. Elsewhere, moderate to fresh trades will
continue through early Wed, then diminish to the gentle speeds
through Thu night. A tropical wave over the far eastern Caribbean
will slowly move across the eastern Caribbean through Wed as it
weakens. Gentle to moderate E to SE winds will follow the wave.
A cold front is over the W Atlantic from 32N58W to the Straits of
Florida near 24N80W. Isolated moderate convection is within 30 nm
of the front. Of note in the upper levels, a large upper level
trough is over the W Atlantic N of 27N and W of 70W, supporting
the cold front. An upper level low is centered over the central
Atlantic near 19N52W. Upper level diffluence E of the low center
is enhancing convection E of the center. Surface ridging prevails
across the remainder of the basin with fair weather.
Expect the W Atlantic front to weaken Tue through early Thu
allowing for winds to diminish and seas to subside.
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