000
AXNT20 KNHC 141016
TWDAT 

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1215 UTC Wed May 14 2025

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 
1000 UTC.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... 

A monsoon trough enters the Atlantic near 13N17W and continues to 
04N20W. The ITCZ continues from that point to 05N51W. Scattered 
moderate convection is noted within 150 nm on either side of the
boundaries mainly W of 18W.

The eastern end of the East Pacific monsoon trough is triggering
scattered moderate to strong convection across the SW Caribbean 
waters near Panama and northwestern Colombia.

...GULF OF AMERICA...

A surface ridge reaches westward from a 1014 mb high at the east-
central Gulf to near Tampico, Mexico. Light to gentle winds and 
seas of 1 to 3 ft are present at the eastern Gulf. Gentle to 
moderate SE to S winds and 2 to 4 ft seas dominate the central 
Gulf. Fresh to strong NE to SSE winds and seas at 4 to 6 ft are 
evident at the western Gulf, with strongest wind speeds in the NW
portion of the basin.

For the forecast, high pressure over the southeastern Gulf should
steadily strengthen through today, then drift eastward towards 
the Florida Peninsula where it will prevail through the weekend. 
This will tighten the pressure gradient against building lower 
pressure over the far western Gulf, and will lead to moderate to 
fresh winds and moderate seas through the weekend.

...CARIBBEAN SEA... 

A broad surface ridge across the western Atlantic near 25N
continues to support a trade-wind regime for most of the 
Caribbean Basin. Refer to the Monsoon Trough/ITCZ section for 
additional weather in the SW Caribbean Sea. Fresh to strong NE to
ENE winds and seas of 8 to 9 ft dominate the south-central basin.
Moderate to fresh ENE to E winds and 5 to 6 ft seas are seen over
the eastern, north-central and southwestern basin. Gentle to 
moderate E to SE winds with seas of 2 to 4 ft prevail at the 
northwestern basin.

For the forecast, high pressure N of area combined with lower 
pressures over South America Bermuda will continue to support 
strong NE to E winds offshore Colombia through tonight along with 
rough seas. The high pressure will lift N and then SE towards the 
central Atlantic subtropical waters, which will keep mainly 
moderate to fresh trades across the central and eastern Caribbean 
tonight through Thu night, and gentle to moderate easterly winds 
the remainder of the forecast period. Moderate to fresh trades and
moderate to rough seas will prevail over the tropical Atlantic 
waters and passages through Sat night. Otherwise, pulsing fresh to
strong E winds are forecast in the Gulf of Honduras from tonight 
through the weekend. 

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Convergent winds east of a surface trough over southern Florida
are triggering scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms over 
the northwest Bahamas. Refer to the Monsoon Trough/ITCZ and 
Caribbean Sea sections for additional weather in the Atlantic 
Basin. A broad surface ridge extends west-southwestward from a 
1024 mb high at the central Atlantic at 30N33W to beyond the 
central Bahamas. These features are supporting light to gentle 
winds and seas of 3 to 4 ft north of 25N between 35W and 68W. To 
the west, moderate to fresh SSE to SSW winds with 3 to 5 ft seas 
are found north of 25N between 68W and the Florida east coast. For
the tropical Atlantic from 05N to 25N between 35W and the Lesser 
Antilles/Bahamas, moderate to fresh NE to E winds and seas at 6 to
8 ft exist. Gentle to moderate E to SE winds and 5 to 7 ft seas 
in mixed moderate swells prevail elsewhere in the Atlantic Basin 
west of 35W.

For the forecast west of 55W, surface ridging will prevail across
the area, with moderate to fresh winds and moderate seas. Pulsing
fresh E winds are expected each afternoon and evening offshore of
northern Hispaniola through Fri. Moderate to fresh trade winds 
and rough seas in mixed NE and SE swell will prevail south of 25N 
this week, including across the Atlantic passages into the eastern
Caribbean.

$$
ERA