000
AXNT20 KNHC 132144
TWDAT 

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0015 UTC Thu May 14 2026

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 
2100 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A tropical wave is analyzed along 40W from 03N to 14N, moving 
westward at around 10 kt. The wave is devoid of significant deep 
convection at this time.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic through the coast of 
Africa near 15N17W and continues SW to 05N20W. The ITCZ extends 
from 05N20W to Brazil at 01N51W. Scattered moderate convection is
noted within 210 nm N of the ITCZ and 360 nm S of the ITCZ to the
W of 30W.

...GULF OF AMERICA...

A cold front extends from 1010 mb low pressure near Cape
Canaveral, Florida to off the Florida Gulf Coast near Cape Coral
the N-central Yucatan Peninsula at 21.5N88W where the tail end
stalls. Some isolated showers and thunderstorms are noted on local
NWS radars over portions of SW Florida and offshore ahead of the
front. Moderate to fresh NW-N winds are N of 25N between 85W and
90W where the pressure gradient remains slightly tight, with seas
of 3-6 ft there. Mainly gentle to moderate N-NE winds are
elsewhere W of the front, along with seas of 3 ft or less, except
2-4 ft in the Bay of Campeche. Gentle to moderate SW winds and
seas of 2 ft or less are ahead of the front, except higher near
any of the isolated convection.

For the forecast, a cold front over the SE Gulf will exit the 
waters tonight. High pressure and quiescent conditions will build 
behind the front through Thu. Another weak cold front is forecast 
to enter the NE Gulf Thu night and dissipate over the E Gulf on 
Fri. Southeast winds are forecast to reach moderate to fresh 
speeds over the western half of the basin this weekend into early 
next week. 

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

The subtropical ridge over the Atlantic forces fresh to strong 
trade winds and 5-8 ft seas across the S-central Caribbean. 
Moderate to fresh easterly breezes are noted across the remainder
of the central and eastern Caribbean from 11N to 18N to the E of
81W, along with 4-6 ft seas. Moderate or weaker winds and slight 
to moderate seas are prevalent across the NW Caribbean, and the SW
Caribbean S of 10N. Otherwise, heavy showers and tstms are 
ongoing offshore Costa Rica near the E Pacific monsoon trough.

For the forecast, the pressure gradient between high pressure 
north of the area and the Colombian Low will support fresh to 
strong tradewinds over the central Caribbean, with the strongest 
winds offshore Colombia and in the Gulf of Venezuela. Moderate to 
fresh tradewinds are expected across the remainder of the forecast
waters, pulsing to strong in the Gulf of Honduras at night Sat 
through Mon night. Large E swell with rough seas will impact the 
tropical N Atlantic waters tonight through early next week. 

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

1011 mb low pressure is located offshore Jacksonville, Florida
near 30.5N79W extending to a 1010 mb low pressure near Cape
Canaveral, Florida along a cold front. Scattered moderate 
convection is noted N of 28N and W of 60W ahead of the lows and 
front, with isolated to widely scattered moderate convection 
elsewhere from 22N to 28N and W of 60W. Moderate to fresh SE-S 
flow covers the waters E of the Bahamas to about 64W, along with 
4-7 ft seas. Elsewhere across the basin, a ridge extends from 1035
high pressure centered well NNW of the Azores through 31N40W to 
29N70W ahead of the front. The pressure gradient between lower 
pressures near the monsoon trough over western Africa and the 
ridging supports fresh to strong winds from 10N to 23N between 
Africa and 45W, along with 6-10 ft seas. Moderate to fresh 
easterly trades and 6-9 ft seas are elsewhere S of 23N. Winds are 
moderate or weaker across the remainder of the waters N of 23N and
E of 65W, along with 5-7 ft seas in N-NE swell, except lower seas
at 3-5 ft between 50W and 65W.

For the forecast west of 55W, a frontal boundary off NE Florida 
will linger through Thu before merging with a weak cold front that
will move off the NE Florida coast on Thu. The front will extend 
from 31N50W to 25N72W Fri morning, from 31N72W to 26N65W on Sat 
morning, then E of the area Sun. Fresh to strong S winds are 
expected N of 27N ahead of the front. 

$$
Lewitsky