354 
AXNT20 KNHC 170500
TWDAT 

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0615 UTC Sun May 17 2026

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 
0500 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A broad eastern Atlantic tropical wave is near 15.5.W from 14N
southward, and moving westward at around 5 kt. Scattered moderate
convection is depicted from 03S to 11N and east of 26W. 

A central Atlantic tropical wave is near 45.5W from 11N 
southward, and moving westward at around 15 kt. Isolated moderate 
convection is seen near the central part of the wave.

An eastern Caribbean tropical wave is near 70.5W from south of
Dominican Republic into western Venezuela. This wave is moving 
westward at 15 to 20 kt. Scattered moderate convection is found 
over northwest Venezuela.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

A monsoon trough enters the Atlantic near 13N17W, then curves 
southwestward to 03N28W. The ITCZ extends from 03N28W to 00N41W. 
Convection near the area is covered in the Tropical Waves section
above. 

Convergent winds north of the eastern end of the East Pacific
monsoon trough is triggering isolated thunderstorms in the
Caribbean waters near Costa Rica and Panama.

...GULF OF AMERICA...

A modest surface ridge reaches southwestward from the Florida
Panhandle to the western Gulf. This feature is supporting light 
to gentle winds with 1 to 3 ft seas for the eastern half of the 
Gulf. Fresh with locally strong NE to E winds and seas of 3 to 5 
ft are present off the northern Yucatan Peninsula. Moderate with 
locally fresh SE winds and seas at 3 to 5 ft prevail for the rest
of the Gulf.

For the forecast, high pressure will extend from the western 
Atlantic to the northern Gulf through the middle of next week. 
Expect moderate to fresh SE winds over the western Gulf into early
next week between the high pressure and lower pressure over 
Mexico. Also expect fresh to strong wind pulses off the northwest 
Yucatan peninsula during the evenings into next week. 

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

Refer to the Monsoon Trough/ITCZ section above for additional 
weather in the southwest Caribbean. A tight pressure gradient 
between a broad surface ridge near 24N and a 1005 mb low pressure 
over far northwestern Colombia is sustaining fresh to strong NE to
E winds and 6 to 9 ft seas in the central, and part of the 
southeastern basin. Fresh to strong E winds and seas at 4 to 6 ft 
are noted at the Gulf of Honduras. Light to gentle winds with 2 to
5 ft seas exist in the lee of Cuba and north Costa Rica and 
Panama. Moderate to fresh E to SE winds and seas of 4 to 6 ft 
prevail elsewhere in the Caribbean Sea.

For the forecast, The pressure gradient between high pressure north of
the area and low pressure over Colombia will support strong
trades across the central Caribbean and the Gulf of Honduras
through Tue, with moderate to fresh trades across the remainder 
of the forecast waters. Large E swell resulting in rough seas will
impact the tropical Atlantic waters through Mon night, then begin
to subside. 

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A surface trough extends southwestward from southeast of Bermuda 
across 31N59W to the central Bahamas. Isolated moderate 
convection is occurring up to 100 nm along either side of this 
feature. Refer to the Tropical Waves section above for additional
convection in the Atlantic Basin. Gentle to moderate NE to E 
winds and seas of 3 to 5 ft are evident near the aforementioned 
surface trough, north of 20N and west of 60W. Farther east, a 
broad Atlantic Ridge stretching southwestward from a 1031 mb 
Azores High to the western Atlantic is maintaining gentle winds 
and seas of 4 to 6 ft north of 26N between 35W and 60W. To the 
south, moderate to fresh NE to E trades with 6 to 9 ft seas 
dominate from 04N to 26N between 35W and the Lesser Antilles. 
Gentle to moderate NE to E trades and seas at 5 to 7 ft prevail 
for the remainder of the Atlantic Basin west of 35W.

For the forecast west of 55W, high pressure over the central 
Atlantic will support fresh trade winds and occasionally rough 
seas with E swell through Sun north of the Leeward Islands. A weak
trough extending from 31N62W to the Bahamas will dissipate 
overnight, leaving tranquil marine conditions in place through the
middle of next week. 

$$
KRV