000
AXNT20 KNHC 050618
TWDAT 

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0615 UTC Wed Aug 5 2026

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 
0550 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A tropical wave is along 24W from 06N to 17N, moving west at 
around 5-10 kt. Scattered moderate convection is noted from 06N 
to 14N between 21W and 28W.

A tropical wave is along 42W from 07N to 18N, moving west at 5-10
kt. Scattered moderate convection is limited to the southern wave
environment, from 05N to 08N between 38W and 44W.

A tropical wave is in the W Caribbean with axis near 80W,
extending southward from 19N, and moving west at 10 kt. Scattered
moderate convection is active in the lee side of Cuba and in the
Gulf of Honduras.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic near 16N16W and continues 
southwestward to 10N26W to 08N38W. The ITCZ extends from 07N43W 
to 07N54W. Aside from the convection associated with the tropical
waves, scattered moderate convection is from 05N to 10N between 
30W and 40W, and from 06N to 10N between 44W and 51W. 

...GULF OF AMERICA...

A 1016 mb high pressure is centered near 26N86W, supporting light
to gentle winds across most of the northern Gulf N of 26N and the
SE basin. A surface trough move off the Yucatan to the Gulf of
Campeche tonight, and is supporting moderate to fresh NE to E
winds over the SW basin. Moderate SE winds is also present in the
immediate offshores of E Mexico to near 94W. Seas basin-wide are
1-4 ft. Scattered showers and a few thunderstorms are active over
the SE Gulf S of 25N and E of 89W, and in the Bay of Campeche due
to the surface trough.
 
For the forecast, high pressure will generally dominate, 
promoting gentle winds and slight to moderate seas into the 
weekend. Pulses of fresh winds will occur west of the Yucatan 
Peninsula each night, locally strong Wed night, along with 
moderate seas. 

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

Fresh to strong E trade winds and 7-10 ft seas persist across the
south-central and portions of the SW Caribbean, between high 
pressure north of area and lower pressure over northern South 
America. Moderate E winds and 3-6 ft seas are noted in the E
Caribbean. In the NW basin, trade winds are moderate to fresh and
seas slight to moderate. Scattered showers and thunderstorms are
active SE of the Dominican Republic.

For the forecast, the pressure gradient between Atlantic high 
pressure and relatively lower pressure in northern South America 
will continue to support strong trades, occasionally reaching near
gale, and associated rough seas, over the central basin into the 
weekend. Fresh to locally strong winds will also pulse in the Gulf
of Honduras and Windward Passage. Otherwise, mainly moderate or 
weaker winds and seas will prevail. 

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Scattered showers are active across the E Florida offshores,
including the seaboard. Farther east, a surface trough extending
from 27N61W to 20N63W is generating scattered showers and tstms
from 21N to 27N between 56W and 66W. Surface ridging prevails
elsewhere in the subtropical waters. In the far NE Atlantic, 
strong to near- gale N-NE winds and moderate to rough seas are 
evident off Morocco and in the water passages of the Canary 
Islands. Elsewhere, gentle to moderate winds and moderate seas are
prevalent.

For the forecast west of 55W, a mid- and upper-level trough along
the SE U.S. coast will keep scattered thunderstorms ongoing 
offshore Florida and in the vicinity of the Bahamas into Wed. 
Locally strong trades will continue pulsing offshore Hispaniola to
near the Windward Passage. A westward moving trough will pass 
north of Puerto Rico and Hispaniola Wed and Wed night, then 
approach the Bahamas by late week before shifting west of the 
area, bringing fresh to locally strong winds and locally rough 
seas. Weak ridging settles across the northern and central waters 
this weekend, bringing tranquil marine conditions. 

$$
Ramos