000
AXNT20 KNHC 032222
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0015 UTC Fri Sep 4 2026

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 
2200 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A tropical wave is analyzed along 21W south of 20N, moving W at
10 kt. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is noted 
from 09N to 16N, E of 22W.

A tropical wave is along 48W, south of 20N, moving W at around 15
kt. Convection previously associated with this wave has diminished
this evening. 

A tropical wave is along 63W, south of 21N, moving west at around
15 kt. No significant convection is associated with this wave at
this time. 

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic through the coast of Mauritania
near 18N16W and continues southwestward to 08N29W and then to 
11N46W. The ITCZ extends from 10N50W to 08N58W. Scattered moderate
convection is noted from 03N to 12N between 22W and 35W.
 
...GULF OF AMERICA...

Scattered moderate convection is focused within 30 nm on either
side of a pair of surface trough axes, one of which is oriented
just offshore Florida from near Apalachicola to Tampa Bay and 
another extending southeast from just west of the mouth of the 
Mississippi River to 27N89W. Winds blow toward lower pressure over
Texas have increased to moderate to fresh offshore NE Mexico and 
within 90 nm of the Texas coast, and moderate to fresh NE winds 
have developed offshore the Yucatan Peninsula, where a diurnal 
surface trough is forming just inland. Otherwise, light to gentle 
winds prevail outside of convection. Seas are 3 ft or less.

For the forecast, a diurnal trough will develop over the Yucatan 
Peninsula each afternoon supporting locally fresh easterly winds 
over the eastern Bay of Campeche through the forecast period. 
Elsewhere, weak high pressure prevails and will generally allow for 
moderate or weaker winds and slight to moderate seas through the 
next few days. The presence of abundant tropical moisture will favor 
scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms mainly in the eastern 
Gulf through the weekend. 

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

The pressure gradient between high pressure to the north and the
Colombian low is maintaining fresh to strong trades and 5 to 8 ft
seas offshore Colombia and western Venezuela. Mainly moderate E
winds and moderate seas prevail across the remainder of the basin,
except the NW Caribbean where gentle winds and slight seas are
present. Scattered moderate convection is noted offshore Costa
Rica and Panama, in associated with the eastern extension of the
Eastern Pacific monsoon trough. 

For the forecast, the pressure gradient between the subtropical 
ridge and lower pressure in northern South America will maintain 
fresh to pulsing strong trades along with moderate seas over the 
central Caribbean, and over the western portion of the eastern 
Caribbean through Sat night. These trades are forecast to increase
to fresh to strong speeds while expanding in coverage over the 
south- central portion of the basin on Mon. Winds reaching near 
gale are expected Tue night near Colombia and in the Gulf of 
Venezuela. Fresh to pulsing strong east winds are expected in the 
Gulf of Honduras Fri night and Tue night. Elsewhere, moderate or 
weaker winds and slight to moderate seas will continue across the 
remainder of the basin during the period.
 
...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A surface trough extending offshore Florida is inducing scattered
moderate convection over and north of the northwest Bahamas. The
remainder of the Atlantic forecast waters is under the influence 
of a ridge, with the main high pressure center of 1023 mb located
NE of the Azores. Moderate to locally fresh winds and moderate 
seas prevail across much of the Atlantic S of 25N and away from 
any convection or tropical waves. Elsewhere, moderate or weaker 
winds and 2-5 ft seas prevail. 

For the forecast west of 55W, scattered showers and thunderstorms
will continue over the waters W of about 73W through the end of 
the week as a mid-level low and surface trough gradually shift 
westward while at the same time abundant tropical moisture remains
in place. A cold front will then approach from the NW late this 
weekend enhancing the potential for scattered and thunderstorms 
over the NW portion of the area. Gentle to moderate east to 
southeast winds are over the waters west of 74W. Otherwise, the 
subtropical ridge will provide for generally moderate or weaker 
winds and moderate seas over the forecast waters. 

$$
Konarik