000
AXNT20 KNHC 231552
TWDAT 

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1815 UTC Sun Aug 23 2026

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 
1300 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

An eastern Atlantic tropical wave has its axis along 33W south of
19N, moving quickly westward at 20 to 25 kt. Scattered moderate 
convection is noted from 04N to 09N between 31W and 39W, and from
11N to 13N between 34W and 36W.

A central Atlantic tropical wave has its axis along 53W south of 
20N, moving westward at around 20 kt. Scattered moderate 
convection is near the northern portion of the wave from 19N to
23N between 47W and 53W. This wave was seen nicely at the surface 
by recent ASCAT scatterometer data.

An eastern Caribbean Sea tropical wave has its axis along 66W 
south of 20N along eastern Puerto Rico to north-central Venezuela, 
moving quickly westward at 20 to 25 kt. A small patch of scattered
moderate convection is noted from 14N to 16N between 67W and 71W.

A northwestern Caribbean tropical wave has its axis near 86W 
south of 21N from near the Yucatan Channel to central Honduras, 
moving westward at around 10 kt. Only isolated to widely scattered 
showers are near the wave axis. To the south over the far 
southwestern section of the Caribbean basin, scattered to numerous
moderate to strong convection is noted just behind the wave and
near the eastern extend of the eastern Pacific monsoon trough 
from 06N to 13N between 79W and 89W.
 
...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough axis enters the Atlantic through the coast of 
Africa near 16N16W and continues southwestward to 06N42W. The ITCZ
extends from 06N42W to 07N51W, then resumes west of a tropical
wave from 09N55W to the coast of Venezuela at 09N61W. Aside from 
the convection described in the section above, scattered moderate 
convection is noted from 13N to 17N between 19W and 24N
approaching portions of the Cabo Verde Islands, and from 07N to
10N between 23W and 26W. This convection may be associated with or
out ahead of the next tropical wave to emerge off the coast of
Africa.

...GULF OF AMERICA...

Relatively weak high pressure, anchored by a 1018 mb high center 
over the north-central Gulf at 27.5N90.5W, is generally allowing 
for anticyclonic light to gentle winds across the basin Slight 
seas are present throughout the basin per buoy observations. 
Scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms remain are active
over the Yucatan Peninsula and the southwestern Gulf offshore
Veracruz, Mexico where a surface trough is present, and due to 
abundant upper moisture from the eastern Pacific which continues
to advect eastward over southern Mexico. Isolated to widely
scattered convection is also present near the coast of Florida
just south of Apalachee Bay, and from offshore Tampa Bay west-
southwestward about 300 nm, likely induced by a weak low-level
trough. 

For the forecast, weak high pressure will remain centered over 
central Gulf through midweek, with the western Atlantic ridge 
building westward into the basin thereafter. This will maintain 
gentle to moderate winds and mainly slight seas through the week. 
A surface trough will generate fresh winds north and west of the 
Yucatan Peninsula in the early evenings through the period. The 
trough will push further offshore through the Bay of Campeche 
during the overnight hours. 

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

Please see the Tropical Waves section above for details on
convection in the basin, mainly confined to the southwest portion.

The pressure gradient associated to high pressure over the western
Atlantic and relatively lower pressure in northern South America
is sustaining fresh to locally strong trades primarily over the 
south-central Caribbean. Seas up to around 8 ft are with these 
trades. Moderate to fresh trades and moderate seas are elsewhere,
except over the northwestern part of the Caribbean north of 20N, 
where light to gentle winds and slight to moderate seas are 
present.

For the forecast, the pressure gradient between western Atlantic 
high pressure and low pressure in northern South America continue 
to maintain fresh to strong trades and resultant rough seas over 
the south-central Caribbean through the week. Elsewhere, mainly 
moderate to fresh trades and moderate seas will prevail, aside 
from light to gentle winds and slight seas in the NW part of the 
basin. Winds will occasionally increase through the week following
passages of a series of relatively weak tropical waves that will 
quickly move west across the basin. 

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Low pressure of 1015 mb, Invest AL95, is centered near 28N60W.
Some fresh to locally strong winds are found near this low, north
of 28N between 55W and 60W. Scattered to numerous moderate
isolated strong convection is present north of 23N between 49W and
62W. Elongated surface troughing extends from north of the area 
well offshore the Carolinas through 31N78W to near Fort Pierce, 
Florida. Some isolated to widely scattered showers and 
thunderstorms are seen on infrared satellite imagery from the 
northern Bahamas northward within 120-240 nm either side of the 
trough. To the east, a cold front extends from near the Iberian 
Peninsula southwestward through 31N16W to 29N26W to 1020 mb low 
pressure near 30N29W, then northwestward as a frontal trough. 
Limited convection is near these features. Rough seas are found 
north of the front. Across the remainder of the basin, high 
pressure weak ridging dominates with a 1020 high north of the area
near 35N44W. Moderate to fresh trades are found from 10N to 22N 
north of the monsoon trough between the Cabo Verde ISlands and 
42W, and in a belt from there to near the low pressure area, AL95.
Winds are moderate or weaker across the remainder of the waters. 
Seas are slight north of 20N and west of 60W, and moderate across 
the remainder of the waters.

For the forecast west of 55W, the low pressure of 1015 mb 
centered near 28N60W is forecast to drift northwest today, then 
accelerate northward and out of the basin Mon. There is a low 
chance of tropical development of this low over the next 48 hours.
Otherwise, high pressure will maintain light to gentle winds N of
23N through the period. To the south, moderate to fresh trades 
will prevail, with locally strong winds pulsing at times offshore 
Hispaniola and into the Windward Passage. The northern portion of 
a tropical wave will move across the waters S of about 23N and E 
of the Bahamas early next week freshening the trades. By Wed, the 
northern portion of another tropical wave may move across the SE 
portion of the area, increasing the trades over those waters. 

$$
Lewitsky