000
AXNT20 KNHC 302301
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0015 UTC Tue Mar 31 2026

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 
2220 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Gale Warning and Western and Central Atlantic Ocean High Seas: A 
cold front continues to move slowly southeastward across the 
basin, extending from 31N47W to 22N68W, then transitions to a 
shear line that extends through the central Bahamas to near Andros
Island. Strong to near-gale force NE to E winds, and rough to 
very rough seas of 12 to 18 ft cover much of the area north of the
front. NE winds will briefly reach gale force in the NE offshore 
waters N of 27N and E of 58W this evening. Thereafter, the front 
will stall and gradually weaken before it dissipates over the 
eastern offshore waters Tue. Strong high pressure will build in 
the wake of the front, which will support the continuation of 
fresh to strong NE to E winds, and rough to very rough seas across
most of the offshore forecast waters through the end of the week.
However, seas are forecast to subside below 12 ft Wed night.

Please refer to the latest NWS High Seas and Offshore Waters 
Forecasts issued by the National Hurricane Center, at the 
following websites: 
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml and
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/marine/offshores.php for more details.

East Atlantic Gale Warning: 
Meteo-France issued a Gale Warning earlier for the marine zone of
Agadir near the coast of Morocco through 30/18 UTC, and has
allowed it to expire. Please refer to the Meteo-France High Seas 
Forecast listed on the website https://wwmiws.wmo.int

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic near 12.5N16.5W, then 
reaches southwestward to near 01.5N30W. The ITCZ begins near 
01.5N30W then continues to the coast of Brazil near 02S45W. 
Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is noted S of 06N
between 00W and 18W, and S of 03.5N between 20W and 34W.

...GULF OF AMERICA...

An upper level trough across the NW Gulf is supporting a cluster 
of scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms north of 25.5N 
between 87W and 90W and extends inland across SE Mississippi. 
Strong high pressure over the NW Atlantic waters extends a ridge 
W-SW across the entire basin and into Texas and eastern Mexico.
This strong ridge is supporting mostly moderate E to SE winds east 
of 90W. except locally fresh E winds through the Straits of
Florida, and gentle to moderate E to SE winds W of 90W. Seas are 
4 to 6 ft E of 90W and 2 to 4 ft W of 90W.

For the forecast, high pressure will prevail across the Gulf 
waters into the upcoming weekend. Moderate to fresh E to SE 
winds, and moderate seas are expected over the E Gulf through Fri 
night. Over the western half of the Gulf, moderate to fresh SE 
winds are forecast, except for locally strong E to SE winds off 
the northern Yucatan Peninsula at night. 

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

A tight pressure gradient between a strong Western Atlantic ridge
north of a cold front through the Bahamas, and a 1010 mb low over
NW Colombia is supporting fresh to strong NE to E winds along 
with moderate to rough seas over the NW, SW, and central 
Caribbean. Afternoon altimeter data showed seas 10-11 ft near the
coast of Colombia. Moderate NE to E winds and slight to moderate 
seas to 5 ft prevail elsewhere in the E Caribbean. Scattered
moderate showers are noted across the Gulf of Honduras and across
the coastal waters of Cost Rica.

For the forecast, the pressure gradient between high pressure N 
of the area and the Colombian low will support fresh to strong 
winds and rough seas offshore Colombia through Sat night, pulsing 
to near gale force at night through midweek. This pattern will 
also support fresh to strong NE winds in the lee side of Cuba, the
Windward Passage, and south of Hispaniola through Thu night. 

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Refer to the Special Features section for more information about a
gale warning, and associated very rough seas occurring north of
the cold front. 

A cold front extends from 31N47W to 22N68W, then transitions to a 
shearline that extends through the central Bahamas to near Andros
Island. 1035 mb high pressure located just NW of Bermuda is building
behind the front, and supports strong to near gale-force NE winds,
north of the front, from 48W to the Bahamas, then becomes fresh to
strong through Cuba and south Florida. An area of gale-force 
winds has also been confirmed by satellite observations, north of 
30N between 52W and 54W. Rough to very rough seas of 10 to 18 ft 
are found with these winds, and dominated seas north of the front,
except for the northwest zones N of the Bahamas. Ahead of the 
front, a weak surface trough extends from 30N46W to 17N56W. Scattered
showers prevail north of 25N between the front and 42W. 
Otherwise, a 1039 mb high NE to the Azores Islands extends a 
ridge to the eastern Atlantic subtropical waters and supports 
fresh to near gale-force NE to W winds and rough to very rough 
seas to 14 ft N of 23N and E of 30W.

For the forecast west of 55W, the aforementioned cold front will 
begin to stall from 31N45W to the Windward Passage Tue morning and
dissipate over the SE waters Tue night. Strong to near- gale 
force NE to E winds, and rough to very rough seas are expected 
north the front, briefly reaching minimal gale force in the NE 
offshore waters N of 27N and E of 57W this evening. Fresh to 
strong NE to E winds, and rough to very rough seas, are then 
expected across most of the offshore forecast waters the second 
half of the week. 
 
$$
Stripling