389 
AXNT20 KNHC 160528
TWDAT 

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0615 UTC Sat May 16 2026

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 
0527 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

An eastern Atlantic tropical wave is near 36.5W, from 12.5N 
southward, and moving westward at 10 to 15 kt. Scattered moderate
convection is noted from 01S to 06N between 34W and 41W.

A central Atlantic tropical wave is near 60.5W, from 14N 
southward into the Venezuela and Guyana border, and moving 
westward at 15 to 20 kt. Scattered showers and isolated 
thunderstorms are seen across Guyana.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

A monsoon trough enters the Atlantic near 12N16W, then curves 
southwestward to 01N27W. An ITCZ continues from 01N27W to 01S34W,
then westward from 0.5S38W to near 00N47W. Numerous moderate to 
scattered strong convection is present near and south of the 
monsoon trough from 01S to 10N and east of 30W. 

...GULF OF AMERICA...

A surface ridge reaches southwestward from a 1017 mb high over the
the NE Gulf to the western Gulf. Light to gentle winds and seas 
at 1 to 2 ft are present the eastern half of the Gulf. Moderate to
locally fresh NE to SE winds and 3 to 5 ft seas are noted off 
northern Yucatan Peninsula, and the coast of southern Texas and 
northeastern Mexico. Mainly gentle winds and seas of 2 to 3 ft 
prevail for the rest of the Gulf.

For the forecast, high pressure will dominate through early next 
week. As low pressure deepens over Texas, the pressure gradient 
will tighten and SE winds will increase to fresh over the western 
Gulf this weekend, then continue through early next week. A 
diurnal trough moving NW off the Yucatan Peninsula may cause 
strong winds to pulse each evening offshore.

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

A tight pressure gradient between a broad surface ridge near 21N 
and a 1006 mb low near the Colombia-Venezuela border is sustaining
fresh to strong NE to E winds and 6 to 9 ft seas at the south-
central basin. Gentle to moderate E winds and seas at 2 to 4 ft 
are evident at the northwestern and waters. Moderate to fresh E 
winds with 4 to 6 ft prevail elsewhere in the Caribbean Sea.

For the forecast, the pressure gradient between high pressure N 
of the area and the Colombian Low will support strong trades 
across the central Caribbean, with near-gale force winds offshore 
Colombia and in the Gulf of Honduras into Tue. Moderate to fresh 
trades are expected across the remainder of the forecast waters. 
Large W swell resulting in rough seas will impact the tropical N 
Atlantic waters through Mon, then begin to subside. 

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A surface trough stretches southwestward from southeast of 
Bermuda across 31N65W to the central Bahamas. Scattered moderate 
convection is noted, north of 26.5N between 56W and 66W. Scattered
showers and thunderstorms are present near the trough itself, 
including the central Bahamas and Great Bahama Bank. Refer to the 
Monsoon Trough/ITCZ and TROPICAL WAVES sections for additional 
convection in the Atlantic Basin. 

Moderate to locally fresh S to SW winds and 6 to 8 ft seas are 
found near the trough, north of 28N between 55W and 66W. 
Otherwise, a broad surface ridge extending southwestward from a 
1035 mb Azores High to near the southeast Bahamas is supporting 
light to gentle winds and seas of 3 to 5 ft north of 27N between 
42W and the Florida/southern Georgia coast. For the Atlantic 
waters from 05N to 27N between 35W and the Lesser Antilles, 
mainly fresh NE to E winds and seas at 6 to 9 ft seas prevail.
East of 35W, mainly fresh N to NE winds along with seas 6 to 9 ft
prevail, except for strong NE winds of the Canary Islands. 

For the forecast west of 55W, mainly tranquil marine conditions 
with moderate to fresh easterly winds will prevail through early 
next week. 

$$
KRV