821 
AXNT20 KNHC 020437
TWDAT 

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0615 UTC Wed Sep 2 2026

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 
0330 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Tropical Depression Edouard continues to move farther inland and
weaken tonight, and is centered near 30.5N 94.6W at 02/0300 UTC, 
or about 40 miles NW of Beaumont, Texas, moving NW at 8 mph. 
Maximum sustained wind speed is 35 mph with gusts to 45 mph.
Estimated minimum central pressure is 1002 mb. Coastal
observations to the south of Edouard indicated that southerly
winds have diminished to 15 to 20 kt with higher gusts, and seas
there are estimated to have subsided to 4-5 ft. A continued
northwest motion and weakening are expected during the next day 
or so, as the system moves over southeastern and eastern Texas 
through Wednesday, and is expected to dissipate Thursday. With 
Edouard well inland across Texas, and winds and seas diminishing 
across the NE Texas and SW Louisiana coastal waters, the main 
threat is now heavy rainfall and flash flooding.

Please read the latest HIGH SEAS FORECAST issued by the National 
Hurricane Center at website - 
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml and the latest 
Edouard NHC Forecast/Advisory and Public Advisory at 
www.hurricanes.gov for more details.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

An eastern Atlantic tropical wave is along 35W, south of 20N, 
moving westward at 15-20 kt. Scattered moderate isolated strong 
convection is noted from 08.5N to 14.5N between 33W and 38W.

A well-defined tropical wave in the central Atlantic is along 
52W, south of 23N, moving westward at 15 kt. The wave is 
interacting with an upper level trough to it's west, and 
producing scattered to locally numerous moderate isolated strong
convection from 16N to 21.5N and between 49W and 53W. Recent
satellite scatterometer data has shown a very sharp surface trough
with this wave, with fresh to strong winds currently from 15N to 
21N between 47W and 53W, where seas are 5 to 8 ft.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic through the coast of
Mauritania near 18N16W and continues southwestward to 11N20W then
to 09N39W to 10N49W. The ITCZ extends from 09N52W to 08N60W. 
Scattered strong convection is emerging off the coast of Africa
from 06.5N to 11N E of 16W. Scattered moderate isolated strong 
convection is occurring from 04.5N to 10N between 30N and 46W. 
 
...GULF OF AMERICA...

Please refer to the Special Features section for information on
Tropical Depression Edouard located over NE Texas.

Away from Tropical Depression Edouard, a weak pressure gradient 
prevails across the basin, resulting in moderate or weaker
anticyclonic winds and slight seas. Fresh NE winds prevail across
the coastal waters NW and W portions of the Yucatan Peninsula.
Scattered showers and thunderstorms moving off the W coast of
Florida earlier tonight have almost completely collapsed there.
Isolated showers dot central portions of the basin. 

For the forecast, Tropical Depression Edouard will continue to move
northwestward, and become a remnant low over eastern Texas Wed 
evening and dissipate Thu morning. In the wake of Edouard, 
relatively weak high pressure will prevail allowing for moderate 
or weaker anticyclonic winds and slight to moderate seas. Expect
fresh winds near the Texas and Mexican coasts each afternoon and
evening.

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

An upper level low from the Cayman Islands to NW Cuba continues to
combine with ample low level moisture moving in from the southeast
to produce lingering scattered to locally numerous showers and 
thunderstorms over eastern Cuba, western Haiti and the surrounding
waters between the SE Bahamas and Jamaica. Scattered showers and
isolated thunderstorms also prevail across SW portions and into
the coastal waters of NE Nicaragua and Honduras, behind a tropical
wave exiting Central America and moving into the eastern Tropical
Pacific. Weak Bermuda High pressure north of the basin is
promoting a modest pressure gradient to the south, and yielding
moderate to fresh easterly trade winds across the central and 
east-central Caribbean between 63W and 75W, per recent satellite 
scatterometer data. Seas are 4 to 7 ft across these waters. 
Moderate easterly winds and moderate seas prevail elsewhere the 
eastern Caribbean. Elsewhere, light to gentle winds and slight 
seas are prevalent W portions, except for moderate winds across 
the Gulf of Honduras.

For the forecast, a trough across east-central Cuba and the
adjacent waters will continue moving WNW through Fri, accompanied
by scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms, mainly east of
the trough. Elsewhere across the basin, the pressure gradient 
between the subtropical ridge to the north and relatively lower 
pressure in northern South America will continue to sustain fresh 
to strong trades along with moderate to rough seas over the 
central and eastern Caribbean through the next few days, while 
moderate or weaker winds and slight to moderate seas remain over 
the rest of the basin. 
 
...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A low to middle level trough extends from near Bermuda to the NW 
Bahamas and the SE Florida coastal waters. Meanwhile, another low
level trough is moving across eastern Cuba and the SE Bahamas, 
with abundant low level moisture behind it. These feature are 
combining to produce scattered moderate isolated strong convection
from the NW Bahamas to just SW of Bermuda, and across the coastal
waters of NE and central Cuba, that is being sustained by 
divergent flow aloft associated with an upper level low over the 
Florida Panhandle. Scattered moderate convection also continues 
across the near and offshore waters of Florida W of 78W. Moderate 
SE surface winds generally prevail from 70W to the Bahamas as 
well as S of 25N between 65W and 70W, were seas are 4 to 6 ft.

The remainder of the tropical Atlantic is dominated by a broad
subtropical ridge centered southwest of the Azores, anchored on a
1027 mb high near 35N35W. Moderate to fresh easterly winds and 
moderate seas are found S of 25N between 30W and 65W. Meanwhile, 
fresh to strong northerly winds and moderate to rough seas are 
present north of 18N and east of 27W off Morocco and NW 
Mauritania and the Canary Islands and into the eastern Atlantic.
Light to gentle winds and slight seas prevail elsewhere N of 25N.

For the forecast west of 55W, a surface trough extending from the
central Bahamas to east-central Cuba will continue moving W-NW
through Fri, while moderate to fresh east to southeast winds 
over the waters south of about 26N between 68W and 78W continue. 
Embedded in this E to SE wind flow, abundant deep tropical 
moisture will sustain scattered showers and isolated 
thunderstorms between Florida and 63W through Fri. Otherwise, the
subtropical ridge will dominate, supporting mainly moderate or 
weaker winds and moderate seas over the forecast waters. 

$$
Stripling