000
AXNT20 KNHC 050934
TWDAT 

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1215 UTC Sun Jul 5 2026

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 
0930 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A tropical wave is along 23W/24W from 04N-16N, and is moving west
at 15 kt. Convection is described in the Monsoon trough/ITCZ 
section below.

An Atlantic tropical wave is near 33N, south of 16N, moving W at 
15 kt. Convection is described in the Monsoon trough/ITCZ section
below.

An Atlantic tropical wave is near 43W, south of 17N, moving W at 
around 15 kt. Convection is described in the Monsoon trough/ITCZ 
section below.

A Caribbean tropical wave is near 75W, south of 20N, moving W at 
at 15-20 kt. Scattered moderate convection is from 12N to 17N
between 65W and 75W.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic near 16N16W and continues 
southwestward to 10N20W. Segments of the ITCZ extend from 10N20W
to 08N23W, from 08N25W to 08N32W, from 07N35N to 08N42W, and from
08N44W to 07N58W. Scattered moderate convection is active from 
05N to 12N between 25W and 55W.

...GULF OF AMERICA...

The subtropical ridge extends along roughly 27N from the western
Atlantic, across the Florida peninsula, and across the northern
Gulf to the coast of Texas. Farther south, a weak trough is
positioned over the Yucatan Peninsula. This pattern is supporting
fresh NE winds off the west coast of the Yucatan Peninsula, as
noted in a recent scatterometer satellite pass. Gentle to 
moderate breezes are observed elsewhere. Seas are generally 1-3 
ft across the basin. A few showers and thunderstorms are active 
over the eastern Gulf at the base of an upper trough that extends 
over the Mississippi River valley. 

For the forecast, the subtropical ridge will continue to dominate
the Gulf waters through the forecast period supporting gentle to 
moderate winds over the western Gulf and light to gentle winds 
over the eastern Gulf. The exception will be pulsing winds 
reaching fresh to locally strong speeds off the northwestern 
Yucatan Peninsula nightly through Thu. These winds are the result 
of local effects associated with a surface trough. Slight to 
moderate seas are expected basin-wide. 

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

The subtropical ridge extending north of the area across the
western Atlantic is supporting moderate to fresh trade winds
across the eastern and central Caribbean, with strong E winds
noted off northeast Colombia and northwest Venezuela, as confirmed
in a recent scatterometer satellite pass. The scatterometer also
indicated fresh E winds off the coast of Honduras and into the
Gulf of Honduras. Gentle to moderate breezes are noted elsewhere.
Seas are 5-7 ft over the eastern and central Caribbean, and 3-5 ft
elsewhere except 1-3 ft in the far northwest Caribbean. 
A mid to upper level trough extends from the western Atlantic 
across eastern Cuba and Jamaica, and toward Nicaragua. Upper level
divergent flow along with convergent lower level trade wind flow 
is supporting scattered showers and thunderstorms off northeast 
Nicaragua. 

For the forecast, the pattern will continue to support fresh to 
strong trade winds and moderate to rough seas over the central 
Caribbean through Thu night. The aerial extent of these winds will
increase tonight into Mon. Expect winds to reach near-gale force 
at night offshore of Colombia and in the Gulf of Venezuela from 
today through Thu. Moderate to fresh trades will continue in the 
eastern Caribbean while moderate or weaker winds will prevail over
the NW part of the basin, except in the Gulf of Honduras where 
fresh to strong ESE winds are forecast at night Mon and Tue. 
Otherwise, a tropical wave, with axis along 74W will continue to 
generate scattered showers and thunderstorms over the central 
Caribbean waters today. 

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

The subtropical ridge dominates the Atlantic north of 20N, and is
anchored by 1022 mb high pressure centered near 27N42W. A few
showers and thunderstorms are active along a dissipating
stationary front that extends from 1016 mb low pressure near
25N52W to Bermuda to 31N75W. The pattern is supporting gentle to 
moderate breezes and 3-5 ft seas along and west of the ridge axis,
and moderate to fresh NE to E trade winds and 5-8 ft seas east 
and south of the ridge axis. 

For the forecast west of 55W, the subtropical ridge will 
continue to build westward into central Florida through Thu. This 
pattern will support moderate to fresh E to SE trade winds S of 
22N, and moderate or weaker winds elsewhere. Locally strong winds 
are likely at night N of Hispaniola, including approaches to the 
Windward Passage, beginning today. 

$$ 

Christensen