000
AXNT20 KNHC 091058
TWDAT 

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1215 UTC Thu Jul 09 2026

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 
1045 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Caribbean Sea Gale Warning: The pressure gradient between the central
Atlantic high pressure and lower pressures over northern South 
America will support strong to near gale-force northeast to east 
trades over the south-central Caribbean, including the Gulf of 
Venezuela into the weekend. Winds are forecast to pulse to gale- 
force off the coast of Colombia Fri night and again Sat night. 
Gale-force winds are expected in the Gulf of Venezuela Fri night 
and Sat night. Seas are expected to peak around 14 ft off Colombia
Sat night. 

Please refer to the latest NWS High Seas Forecast at website: 
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFEP2.shtml for more details.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

An eastern Atlantic tropical wave has its axis along 37W south of
16N moving westward at 15 kt. No significant convection is 
occurring near the wave.

An eastern Caribbean tropical wave is along 66W/67W south of 18N
moving westward at 20 kt. Scattered showers and thunderstorms are 
east of the wave to near 61W from 13N to 15N. Similar activity is
from 16N to 17N between 64W and 68W.

A central Caribbean tropical wave is analyzed along a position
from 19N73W to 14N73W to inland Colombia near 11N74W. It is 
moving westward around 15 kt. No significant convection is noted 
near the wave. Numerous strong and large convective clusters 
have recently formed over Colombia from 05N to 11N between 72W 
and 75.5W.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough axis enters the Atlantic through the coast of 
Mauritania near 21N16W and continues southwestward to 10N25W,
where it transitions to the ITCZ to 08N36W. It resumes at 07N39W
to 07N47W and to the coast of Guyana near 06N57W. Scattered 
moderate convection is within 30 nm of the ITCZ between 44W-49W.

...GULF OF AMERICA...

A relatively weak ridge axis extends from the Atlantic westward 
across central Florida and to Gulf. It is generally providing for
gentle to moderate east to southeast winds south of 26N east of 
94W, and light to gentle southeast to south-southwest winds north 
of 26N. Light and variable winds are south of 26N west of 94W. 
Latest altimeter satellite data passes and buoy observations 
indicate light seas throughout, except for moderate seas south of 
25N east of 85W, including the Straits of Florida.
 
A mid-level trough along within a very moist and unstable
environment is generating scattered to numerous showers and 
thunderstorms over the SW Gulf. Isolated showers and thunderstorms
are elsewhere south of about 28N.

For the forecast, the high pressure ridge will change little 
through Sat, then shift slightly southeastward afterward. The 
weather pattern will support gentle to moderate east to southeast 
winds south of 26N east of 94W, and light to gentle southeast to 
south-southwest winds north of 26N into the weekend. Light and 
variable winds are south of 26N west of 94W. These winds will 
gentle to moderate east to southeast winds tonight and change 
little into next week. The exception will be occasional fresh to 
strong northeast to east winds offshore the Yucatan peninsula at 
night. The shower and thunderstorm being produced by the mid- 
level trough will persist into tonight as it lifts to the north.

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

Please refer to the Special Features section above for details on
gale conditions offshore Colombia and in the Gulf of Venezuela
that are expected to begin in the short-term.

The pressure gradient between central Atlantic high pressure and 
lower pressures over northern South America continues to 
result in fresh to near gale-force trades over the central 
Caribbean. Seas with these trades are in the range of 8 to 11 ft.
Fresh to strong northeast to east winds are in the Gulf of 
Honduras along with seas of 4 to 6 ft. Similar winds are 
in the northern portion of the Windward Passage. Seas are 5 to 7 
ft with these winds. Elsewhere, mostly fresh trades are over the 
basin, except for trades of gentle to moderate speeds in the 
northwestern Caribbean. Fresh east winds are south of Cuba to near
21N. Seas are 6 to 8 ft south of 18N and east of 83W, and 3 to 5 
ft elsewhere over the basin.

A tropical wave over the eastern Caribbean passing just to the
south of Puerto Rico is accompanied by fresh to strong trades 
along with scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms that are 
currently present from 13N to 16N between 61W and 65W.

An upper-level trough that extends from near western Cuba east- 
northeastward to a large upper-level low just east of the 
southeastern Bahamas has helped to destabilize the atmosphere 
over the northern part of the basin west of Haiti. Clusters of 
scattered showers and thunderstorms are evident west of about 80W,
including the Gulf of Honduras and the waters adjacent to Belize 
and the southern Yucatan Peninsula. Isolated showers and 
thunderstorms are north of 18N between Haiti and 80W.

For the forecast, trades over the Gulf of Honduras will pulse to 
fresh to strong speeds in the late afternoons and evenings through
early next week. The trades associated to the tropical wave will 
combine with those trades already present in the central 
Caribbean beginning tonight as the wave advances westward.

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A 1026 mb high center is located near 27N46W while a 1023 mb high
center is near 27N62W. These features are anchoring a broad area 
of high pressure that covers the area north of 20N and west of 
about 18W. The associated ridge axis along 27N stretches westward 
across central Florida and to the Gulf of America. The pressure 
gradient between this ridge and lower pressures in the deep 
tropics is sustaining fresh to strong east winds between the 
southeastern Bahamas and Hispaniola and between the central 
Bahamas and Cuba. Seas of 6 to 8 ft are over these waters. Farther
east, mostly fresh northeast to east trades are south of 21N 
between the Lesser Antilles and 44W as well as over the far 
eastern Atlantic from 18N to 26N east of 44W to the coast of 
Africa. Seas are about 5 to 7 ft over these waters. Elsewhere, 
moderate or weaker winds remain along with seas of 4 to 6 ft.

A stationary frontal boundary extends from 31N37W to 30.5N42W and
northwest from there to beyond 31N47W. No significant convection 
is present with this feature. however, an area of scattered 
showers is seen to its southwest from 28N to 31N between 47W and 
53W.

A broad upper-level low moving westward is identified on water 
vapor imagery just approaching the southeastern Bahamas near
23N73W. To its east, an area of mostly mid and high-level clouds 
is noted from 20N to 27N between 67W and 74W. Scattered showers 
and isolated thunderstorms are embedded within this area of 
cloudiness as it shifts toward the west-northwest. 

For the forecast west of 55W, the high pressure ridge near 27N
will change little through the period. The present weather 
pattern will generally support moderate to fresh trades south of 
23N, and light to gentle winds north of 23N, except north of 29N 
where moderate to fresh south to southwest winds will prevail 
through Sat night. Strong winds along with moderate to rough seas 
are expected at night north of Hispaniola, including the 
approaches to the Windward Passage through early next week. 

$$
Aguirre