000
AXNT20 KNHC 092304
TWDAT 

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0015 UTC Tue Mar 10 2026

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 
2230 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Caribbean Sea Gale Warning: The pressure gradient between the 
Atlantic high pressure ridge, along about 32N, and the Colombian 
low, will continue to support fresh to near gale-force trades 
across the south central and southeastern Caribbean through Thu
morning. Winds offshore of Colombia will pulse to gale-force Tue 
night, and possibly briefly again on Wed night. Seas of 8 to 12 
ft are expected with the strongest winds.

Please read the latest High Seas Forecast issued by the National 
Hurricane Center at website: 
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml for more details.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic near 11.5N15.5W to
02.5N19.5W, then transitions to ITCZ, continuing from that point 
to 01S34W to the coast of Brazil at 03S37W. Scattered showers are
noted about the ITCZ W of 18W. 

...GULF OF AMERICA...

A surface ridge extends across the northern Gulf, from 1028 mb
highpressure just E of Bermuda, westward to SE Texas. Gentle to 
moderate SE to S winds are found across most of the basin, with 
slight seas of 2 to 4 ft, except peak seas of 5 ft offshore of the
central Mexican coast. A small and narrow band of weak showers 
extends offshore from the mouth of the Mississippi River. 

For the forecast, the surface ridge will prevail through 
midweek. The pressure gradient between the ridge and lower 
pressures over Mexico will support mainly moderate to fresh E to 
SE winds basin-wide, pulsing to fresh and strong near the northern
Yucatan and the western Gulf in the evenings, and slightly weaker
winds overall in the northeastern Gulf. Seas will be slight to 
moderate through Wed. A cold front may impact the northwestern 
Gulf beginning Wed night, before moving across the basin through 
Fri night with winds increasing to fresh to strong speeds and seas
building to 9 ft behind it. A brief period of gale force winds 
may be possible offshore of Veracruz early on Thu. 

...CARIBBEAN SEA... 

Please see Special Features section above regarding developing 
Gale conditions in the south-central Caribbean. 

A strong pressure gradient between the Colombian low and Atlantic high
pressure extending westward along 32N to the north is supporting 
fresh to strong trade winds over much of the central and eastern 
Caribbean. Winds are moderate to fresh across the remaining 
basin, except for light winds in far SW portions. Rough seas of 8
to 10 ft prevail in the central and south-central Caribbean and
are a bit more moderate at 6 to 8 ft in the eastern Caribbean, 
except locally rough near Atlantic passages. Scattered passing
showers dot much of the north central and W portions of the basin.

For the forecast, the pressure gradient between a Bermuda High and
the Colombian low will support fresh to strong trades across the 
eastern basin through Tue, and the central basin through Wed 
night. Winds offshore of northwestern Colombia will pulse to gale-
force during the night-time hours Tue night. Fresh to locally 
strong NE to E winds will pulse near the Windward Passage through 
mid-week. Moderate to fresh winds will pulse in the Gulf of 
Honduras and Lee of Cuba through Wed night. Large easterly trade-
wind swell from the tropical North Atlantic will keep rough seas 
near the Lesser Antilles through Wed night. Marine conditions will
improve slightly by the end of the week as the pressure gradient 
weakens due to a weak cold front approaching the NW Caribbean. 

...ATLANTIC OCEAN... 

Surface ridging dominates the central and western tropical 
Atlantic, centered on a 1028 mb high near 32N60W. This pattern is 
supporting widespread moderate to fresh trade winds south of 27N
and west of 45W, becoming moderate SE to S winds north of the
Bahamas and west of 70W. Rough seas to 10 ft in E swell are noted
in this region of fresh winds as well as east of the Lesser 
Antilles. Elsewhere, the remnants of a frontal boundary are 
analyzed as a surface trough, extending from 31N37W to 25N41W. 
Fresh to strong NE winds are occurring N of 27N between the trough
and 48W. Associated remnant rough seas are found N of 28N between
25W and 37W. Scattered showers and thunderstorms are occurring N 
of 22N between 34W and 41W. Farther east, fresh to strong NE winds
and rough seas in NE swell prevail off the coast of northwest 
Africa, supported by a strong pressure gradient between a high to 
the north over the Azores and lower pressures over northwest 
Africa. Elsewhere, gentle to moderate winds and moderate seas 
prevail over the rest of the basin. 

For the forecast west of 55W, moderate to fresh easterly winds 
will prevail south of 27N through midweek, reaching strong north 
of Hispaniola into the Windward passage at times. Rough seas will 
prevail within these winds and east of the central and southeast 
Bahamas through Tue. Moderate or weaker winds can be expected 
elsewhere across the region. Fresh to strong southerly winds may 
develop off northern Florida Wed night ahead of a cold front. 
That front is expected to move offshore Thu with fresh to strong 
winds and building seas behind it, weakening and slowing from near
Bermuda to the northern Bahamas by late Thu night.

$$
Stripling