920 
AXNT20 KNHC 222245
TWDAT 

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0015 UTC Sun Aug 23 2026

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2245 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A tropical wave has its axis along 28W south of 19N moving 
westward at 10 to 15 kt. Scattered moderate to isolated strong 
convection is near the southern end of the wave axis from 05N to
10N between 26W and 32W.

Another tropical wave has its axis along 47W/48W south of 19N 
moving westward at 15 to 20 kt. A few showers are near the
northern end of the wave axis.

A tropical wave is approaching the Lesser Antilles. Its axis is
along 60W south of 20N. It is moving westward at 15 to 20 kt.
Convection is limited near the wave axis at this time. However, 
moisture associated with this wave is forecast to reach mainly 
the Windward Islands tonight into Sun likely increasing the 
likelihood of showers.

A tropical wave is over the western Caribbean along 82W south of
20N. It is moving westward at 10 to 15 kt. The wave appears to 
enhance convection over parts of Panama and Costa Rica as well as
over the Atlantic plains of Nicaragua. 

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough axis enters the Atlantic through the coast of 
Mauritania near 18N16W and continues southwestward to 08N28W, and
northwestward from there to 11N50W. The ITCZ extends from 11N50W
to 11N59W. No significant convection is noted outside of what is
described in the Tropical Waves section above.

...GULF OF AMERICA...

Scattered showers and thunderstorms are active across most of the
northern Gulf ahead of surface trough that extends from SE Georgia
to the coast of Louisiana. Additional showers and thunderstorms 
are active over the Yucatan Peninsula. Elsewhere, a ridge continues
to dominate the Gulf waters, anchored by 1018 mb high pressure 
located near 24N94W. This pattern is supporting light to gentle 
winds and slight seas, except for gentle to moderate winds and 3 
to 5 ft seas over the Bay of Campeche east of the trough in that 
area.

For the forecast, weak high pressure will remain centered over 
the basin into late next week, leading to gentle to moderate 
winds and generally slight seas. A surface trough will generate 
fresh winds north and west of the Yucatan Peninsula in the early 
evenings, which will pressure further offshore through the Bay of
Campeche during the overnight hours.

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

The pressure gradient associated to high pressure over the western
Atlantic and relatively lower pressure in northern South America
is sustaining fresh to strong trades primarily over the south-
central Caribbean. Seas in the range of 8 to 9 ft are with these 
trades as noted in recent altimeter data. Moderate to fresh trades
and moderate seas are elsewhere, except in the NW Caribbean where
light to gentle winds and slight to moderate seas are noted. 
Convection is flared-up over much of Central America and Cuba, 
and over parts of Dominican Republic. 

For the forecast, the pressure gradient between western Atlantic
high pressure and Colombia low pressure will support fresh to 
strong trades and resultant rough seas over the south-central 
Caribbean through next week. Elsewhere, mainly moderate to fresh 
trades and moderate seas will prevail, aside from light to gentle
winds and slight seas in the NW part of the basin. A pair of 
tropical waves crossing the Caribbean Sea next week lead to periods
of enhanced winds after their passages.

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A 1021 mb high pressure centered between the Bahamas and Bermuda
near 29N68W dominates the western Atlantic west of 60W. A surface
trough extends from 31N75W to 28N80W. Showers and thunderstorms
are associated with this trough. Satellite derived wind data  
indicate mainly gentle to moderate winds on either side of the 
trough axis. Moderate to locally fresh E to SE winds and seas of 
3 to 5 ft are noted off Hispaniola and eastern Cuba, including 
approaches to the Windward Passage. Light to gentle winds and 
slight to moderate seas prevail elsewhere W of 60W. Farther east,
a weak 1016 mb low pressure is located near 29N59W. A trough 
extends from the low center to near 27N60W based on scatterometer
data. Scattered showers, with embedded thunderstorms, are ahead 
of these features. The remainder of the forecast area in under 
the influence of broad 1028 mb high pressure centered north of 
the region near 35N41W. This pattern is supporting moderate to 
fresh NE to E winds and 5 to 7 ft seas across the basin, with the
exception of fresh to strong N to NE winds and rough seas from 
19N to 23N E of 22W to the coasts of Mauritania and Western 
Sahara. A cold front is approaching the Madeira Islands. Some 
shower activity is along the frontal boundary.

For the forecast west of 55W, weak low pressure that has developed
well SE of Bermuda will drift west through the weekend then lift
northward and out of the region Mon. Otherwise, high pressure 
will maintain light to gentle winds N of 23N through the period. 
To the south, moderate to fresh trades will prevail, with locally
strong winds pulsing at times offshore Hispaniola and into the 
Windward Passage. The northern portion of a tropical wave will 
move across the waters S of about 23N and E of the Bahamas early 
next week freshening the trades. By Wed, the northern portion of 
another tropical wave may move across the SE portion of the area,
increasing the trades over those waters. 

$$
GR