000
AXNT20 KNHC 151712
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1815 UTC Sat Aug 15 2026

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 
1700 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Caribbean Gale Warning: The pressure gradient remains tighten 
between surface ridging over the W Atlantic and the Colombian 
Low. This will again favor increasing winds in the south-central 
Caribbean, supporting gale-force NE to E winds off Colombia this 
evening and early Sunday morning. Expect rough to very rough seas
to near 15 ft near and downwind of these winds. Please read the 
latest HIGH SEAS FORECAST issued by the National Hurricane Center 
at website - https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml and the
latest NWS Offshore Zone Forecast issued by the National 
Hurricane Center at website 
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAOFFNT3.shtml for further details.

Heavy Precipitation in South Central America and Colombia: Two 
tropical waves will propagate into Central America over the next
several days, and will interact with enhanced divergence aloft and
an active monsoon trough. The first tropical wave is located over
the western Caribbean and over Panama. As this wave continues 
westward, expect heavy precipitation to continue in Costa Rica, 
the Darien region and into Choc-Colombia on Saturday and into 
Sunday. By Sunday, the second tropical wave enters the west 
Caribbean. Long fetch westerly flow is expected to occur from 
Sunday into Monday, favoring an increase in available moisture 
into Colombia. The heaviest precipitation is expected in Costa 
Rica throughout the day on Saturday and into early Sunday morning,
while the heaviest precipitation in Panama, the Darien Region, 
and Choc- Colombia occurs Sunday into Monday. There is some 
uncertainty on how far south the heaviest rainfall could reach, 
particularly due to how far south the available moisture and the 
westerly flow enters the region. Please refer to the WPC 
International Desk and local weather services for more 
information.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A tropical wave extends from 05N to 20N with axis near 27W, 
moving westward at 15-20 kt. Scattered moderate convection is 
from 06N to 14N between 22W and 32W.

A tropical wave extends from 04N to 20N with axis near 41W, 
moving west at around 15-20 kt. Scattered moderate convection is 
noted from 05N to 14N between 40W and 49W. 

A tropical wave is in the E Caribbean south of 20N with axis near
64W, moving westward at around 15-20 kt. Scattered moderate
convection extends from 10N to 17N between 60W and 67W.

A tropical wave is in the far W Caribbean with axis near 85W,
moving westward at about 15 kt. The wave appears to enhance
convection over Panama, Costa Rica, and far southern Nicaragua.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic near 19N16W and extends 
southwestward to 07N45W. Convection is discussed in the Tropical 
Waves section above. 

...GULF OF AMERICA...

A 1021 mb high is centered over the northern Gulf, supporting 
gentle to moderate winds across the forecast waters. Seas are 1-4 
ft. Scattered moderate convection is noted in the Bay of Campeche 
associated with a surface trough. Scattered showers and
thunderstorms are also developing across the central Gulf, driven
by convergent surface winds.

For the forecast, a high pressure center will remain over the 
north-central Gulf this weekend, then moves SE while weakening 
some by Mon. This pattern will produce mostly gentle to moderate E
to SE winds across the basin, with pulses of fresh winds 
occurring north and west of the Yucatan Peninsula and into the Bay
of Campeche each night, as a surface trough migrates from the 
Yucatan Peninsula westward across the SW Gulf. Slight to moderate 
seas are expected through the forecast period. Looking ahead, by 
midweek next week winds may increase to fresh speeds over the NW 
and west-central Gulf as the pressure gradient tightens between 
the high pressure and lower pressures over north-central Mexico. 

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

See Special Features section for information on the Gale Warning 
in effect for the south-central basin. See the Tropical Waves
section for more info on winds and convection in the E Caribbean.

Outside of the gale area, fresh to strong trade winds and 
rough seas are occurring over much of the Caribbean S of 18N. 
Moderate to locally fresh E winds prevail over the remaining 
waters with seas 3-6 ft. A surface trough along the eastern 
Yucatan Peninsula supports scattered moderate convection from the 
Gulf of Honduras up along the Yucatan coast.

For the forecast, a ridge N of the area combined with the 
Colombian low will continue to support fresh to strong winds over 
most of the east and central Caribbean this weekend. Peak winds to
minimal gale-force are expected offshore Colombia tonight. A 
strong tropical wave, with axis near 64W, Invest AL92 , will 
continue to impact the eastern Caribbean today. Even though 
development is highly unlikely, strong gusty winds, rough seas and
areas of heavy rain are still possible across portions of the 
Lesser Antilles today. These weather conditions are forecast to 
shift westward toward the central and SW Caribbean, including the 
Greater Antilles and the Windward Passage from tonight through 
Mon. Afterwards, the tropical wave may weaken, as it moves toward 
the W Caribbean.

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Ridging prevails across the basin, anchored by a 1023 mb high SE
of Bermuda. Along the coast of Western Sahara and through the 
Canary Islands, NE winds are fresh with seas 6-7 ft. Elsewhere 
the trades are moderate or weaker with seas 3-6 ft. Scattered
moderate convection is occurring along and N of 30N between 55W
and 75W as a cold front approaches the discussion waters.

For the forecast west of 55W, the Bermuda-Azores High, combined 
with the passage of two tropical through the Caribbean Sea will 
cause fresh to strong NE to E winds south of 22N including the 
approaches and in the Windward Passage from late this afternoon 
through Sun night. Looking ahead, a cold front will slowly push 
across the northern forecast border east of 70W late on Sun, 
causing a wind shift to the NW and then N with fresh to locally 
strong wind speeds ahead of the front on Sun and Mon north of 28N.
The front will stall on Monday before dissipating Tue. 

$$
Adams