000
AXNT20 KNHC 042311
TWDAT 

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0015 UTC Sun Apr 5 2026

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2300 UTC.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough reaches the Atlantic through the coast of
Sierra Leone near 08N13W and continues southwestward to 05N18W. 
The ITCZ extends from 05N18W to the coast of Brazil near 02S45W. 
Scattered moderate convection is noted S of 05N between 10W and
30W. 

...GULF OF AMERICA...

A ridge extends from a 1029 high pressure located near Bermuda 
across Florida into the Gulf region. Under the influence of this 
system, moderate to locally fresh E to SE winds are present, 
except in the Straits of Florida where fresh to locally strong E 
winds are ongoing. Seas are in general 5 to 8 ft with these 
winds, occasionally higher in the Straits of Florida. Scattered 
showers are ongoing in the NW Gulf as a cold front approaches the
region.

For the forecast, a cold front will push offshore the Texas coast
tonight and move slowly southeastward across the basin through 
Mon night. Ahead of the front, fresh to strong east winds will 
continue across the Straits of Florida and over the far southeastern
Gulf through late tonight. Behind the front, strong northeast 
winds and rough seas are expect across portions of the western 
Gulf Sun into Mon, with these conditions spreading into the NE 
Gulf Mon night through early Thu, at which time they will improve
some. There may be potential for winds in the northeast part of 
the NE Gulf to reach gale-force Wed and Wed night. Scattered showers
and thunderstorms may precede the front. 

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

The pressure gradient between a ridge N of the area and the Colombian
low continues to support fresh to strong NE to E winds offshore 
Colombia with seas in the 7 to 9 ft range. Elsewhere, moderate to
fresh trade winds are and moderate seas noted, except in the SW 
Caribbean where gentle to moderate winds are occurring. A diffluent
pattern aloft is helping to induce scattered showers and thunderstorms
over parts of Cuba, Jamaica, Hispaniola and Puerto Rico.

For the forecast, the pressure gradient between high pressure centered
near Bermuda and low pressure near Colombia will continue to support
pulsing strong winds and rough seas offshore Colombia into tonight.
The high pressure will weaken some as it slides eastward Sun allowing
for the pressure gradient to slacken. This will lead to diminishing
winds and subsiding seas. A surface trough located just north of
Hispaniola will drift west- northwestward toward the Bahamas through
Tue. The gradient between it and central Atlantic high pressure 
will maintain fresh trade winds across the eastern Caribbean, with
gentle to moderate winds elsewhere. 

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A surface trough is analyzed from 29N72W to the SE Bahamas. Showers
and thunderstorms are on increase on either side of the trough axis.
Currently, the associated convective activity covers the waters 
south of 25N between 65W and 80W, including most of the Bahamas.
All these weather conditions are related to a short-wave trough 
located over the same area. High pressure is over just about the 
entire forecast region. The pressure gradient between the high 
pressure and relatively lower pressure in the subtropics and 
tropics is producing fresh to strong east winds south of about 
26N and W of 55W. Rough seas up to 11 ft are present with these 
winds east of the Bahamas. Farther E, another surface trough, 
associated with an upper-level low, extends from 30N43W to 
21N42W. A few showers and thunderstorms are near the trough axis 
that is clearly defined in scatterometer data. Mainly gentle to 
moderate winds are on either side of the trough axis. Elsewhere,
moderate or weaker winds and moderate seas are present.

For the forecast west of 55W, marine conditions will improve Sun
night into Mon as the high pressure weakens and slides eastward 
in response to an approaching cold front. This front will slowly 
move off the southeastern U.S. and northeast Florida Sun night 
reaching from near 31N76W to east-central Florida Mon afternoon, 
from near 31N70W to South Florida Tue afternoon, from near 31N63W
to the Straits of Florida by Wed afternoon. then stall into Thu 
night. The aforementioned trough will continue to drift west- 
northwestward eventually merging with the frontal boundary late 
Tue. Low pressure may then form along the frontal boundary and 
track northeastward to north of 31N on Wed, while an expansive 
area of strong high pressure builds southward up against the 
frontal boundary and low pressure. The resulting tight pressure 
gradient will lead to widespread strong to near gale-force 
northeast to east winds behind the frontal boundary along with 
rough to very rough seas beginning Tue. The potential exists for 
these winds attaining gale-force speeds. Mariners are advised to 
keep up with the latest forecast. 

$$
GR