000
AXNT20 KNHC 231053
TWDAT 

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1215 UTC Sun Aug 23 2026

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 
1045 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

An eastern Atlantic tropical wave has its axis along 30W south of
19N moving westward at 10 to 15 kt. Scattered moderate to 
isolated strong convection is within 240 nm west of the southern 
portion of the wave axis from 05N to 09N.

A central Atlantic tropical wave has its axis along 51W south of 
20N moving westward at 15 to 20 kt. Scattered moderate convection
is near the northern portion of the wave from 18N to 20N between 
the wave and 48W.

An eastern Caribbean Sea tropical wave has its axis along 63W 
south of 20N. It is moving westward at 15 kt. Scattered showers 
and isolated thunderstorms are noted within 180 nm east of the 
wave axis from 12N to 16N, including over some sections of the
Lesser Antilles.

A western Caribbean tropical wave has its axis near 85W south of 
21N, and is moving westward at 10 to 15 kt. Only isolated showers 
are near the wave axis. To the south over the far southwestern
section of the basin, numerous strong convection is just offshore
Costa Rica and northern Panama. Some of this activity extends 
inland northern Costa Rica.
 
...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough axis enters the Atlantic through the coast of 
Africa near 20N16W and continues southwestward to 12N23W and
west-southwestward to 08N32W and to 07N40W, where it transitions
to the ITCZ to near 10N48W. Aside from the convection described 
in the section above, scattered moderate convection is within 
30 nm of the trough between 19W-21W.

...GULF OF AMERICA...

Relatively weak high pressure, anchored by a 1017 mb high center 
over the west-central Gulf, is generally allowing for gentle to 
moderate winds. Slight seas are present throughout the basin per 
buoy observations and a couple of overnight satellite altimeter data 
passes.

Scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms remain quite 
active over the Yucatan Peninsula and over southeastern 
Mexico. Abundant upper moisture from the eastern Pacific is
advecting eastward over southern Mexico, the southwestern Gulf 
and toward the Yucatan Peninsula.

For the forecast, the high pressure will remain centered over 
central Gulf through midweek generally maintaining gentle to 
moderate winds and generally slight seas. Atlantic high pressure 
will then build westward into the central Gulf afterward. A 
surface trough will generate fresh winds north and west of the 
Yucatan Peninsula in the early evenings through the period. The 
trough will push further offshore through the Bay of Campeche 
during the overnight hours. 

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

The pressure gradient associated to high pressure over the western
Atlantic and relatively lower pressure in northern South America
is sustaining fresh to strong trades primarily over the south-
central Caribbean. Seas up to 8 ft are with these trades as
detected in overnight satellite altimeter data passes. Moderate to 
fresh trades and moderate seas are elsewhere, except over the 
northwestern part of the Caribbean, where light to gentle winds and 
slight to moderate seas are present.

Scattered showers and thunderstorms are over the central part of the 
basin from 13N to 19N between 68W and 70W, and over the waters 
between Jamaica and Haiti, reaching to the Windward Passage.

For the forecast, the aforementioned pressure gradient between 
the western Atlantic high pressure and relatively lower pressure 
in northern South America will continue to maintain fresh to 
strong trades and resultant rough seas over the south-central 
Caribbean through next week. Elsewhere, mainly moderate to fresh 
trades and moderate seas will prevail, aside from light to gentle 
winds and slight seas in the NW part of the basin. A weak tropical
wave over the far eastern Caribbean near 63W will move across the
basin during the upcoming week. Another weak tropical wave will 
enter the eastern Caribbean Mon night and reach the western part 
of the basin late in the week. Yet, another tropical wave may 
approach the Lesser Antilles and far eastern Caribbean late on 
Wed, then move across the eastern Caribbean Thu and Thu night.
The gradient associated with these waves will lead to periods of 
enhanced winds after their passages. Scattered showers and 
thunderstorms near these waves may be capable of producing strong 
gusty winds.

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

High pressure is over the majority of the Atlantic waters. It is 
on the weak side over the western half of the basin. A 1019 mb
high center is analyzed near 29N70W. To its east, a surface 
trough extends from near 31N58.5W to a weak 1018 mb low pressure 
at 30N59W, and continues from the low pressure to 27N61W. This 
system is part of a broad low pressure area that is located a few
hundred nautical miles SE of Bermuda. Scattered showers and 
thunderstorms are present N of 24N between 55W and 63W. Moderate 
to fresh southeast winds are east of the trough to near 50W while 
light and variable winds are west of the trough to near 73W. Seas 
are 3 to 5 ft west of about 50W. The remainder of the basin
is under the influence of a broad 1027 mb high pressure that 
is analyzed N of he region at 36N42.5W. The related pressure 
gradient is sustaining moderate to fresh northeast to east winds
from 10N to 25N east of 50W, where seas are 5 to 7 ft. A cold front 
extends from near 31N17W to 30N45W, and continues northwestward from 
there to near 33N35W. Broken to overcast low to mid-level clouds 
along with possible isolated showers are along and near the frontal 
boundary.

For the forecast west of 55W, the low pressure SE of Bermuda will 
drift westward on Sun, then accelerate northward early next week.
Otherwise, high pressure will maintain light to gentle winds N of
23N through the period. To the south, moderate to fresh trades 
will prevail, with locally strong winds pulsing at times offshore 
Hispaniola and into the Windward Passage. The northern portion of 
a tropical wave will move across the waters S of about 23N and E 
of the Bahamas early next week freshening the trades. By Wed, the 
northern portion of another tropical wave may move across the SE 
portion of the area, increasing the trades over those waters. 

$$
Aguirre