000
AXNT20 KNHC 131001
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1215 UTC Thu Aug 13 2026

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 
0920 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Caribbean Gale Warning: The pressure gradient between subtropical
high pressure across the western Atlantic along 27N and lower 
pressure over northern South America will tighten late this week, 
behind a passing tropical wave, increasing trade winds across the
eastern and central Caribbean, and forcing gales to develop Fri 
evening in the Gulf of Venezuela and offshore Colombia. Gales will
prevail Fri night then diminish below gale-force Sat morning. 
Very rough seas to 15 ft will build near and downwind of these 
gales in the southwest Caribbean Fri night into early Sat. Please 
see the latest NWS High Seas Forecast issued by the National 
Hurricane Center at website 
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml for further details.

Invest AL92: Showers and thunderstorms are showing some signs of 
organization in association with a tropical wave located in the
Central Tropical Atlantic along 43W, midway between the Lesser 
Antilles and the west coast of Africa. 1011 mb low pressure is
analyzed there near 11N42W. Overnight satellite scatterometer data
showed strong winds north of the low to 20N, between 37W and 48W,
with rough seas to 10 ft. Environmental conditions are forecast 
to be conducive for further development, and a tropical depression
will likely form during the next day or so while the system moves
westward or west- northwestward across the central tropical 
Atlantic. However, by Friday, upper-level winds are likely to 
become too strong for development as the system approaches the 
Lesser Antilles. There is high chance for tropical formation in 
the next 48 hours. 

...TROPICAL WAVES...

The axis of a tropical wave is near 27W-28W, from 06N to 19N,  
moving west at around 15 kt. Scattered moderate isolated strong
convection is noted from 08N to 13N between 26W and 33W. Overnight
satellite scatterometer data showed strong SW to W winds noted on
the S side of the system. Environmental conditions are forecast 
to be generally conducive for some development, and a tropical 
depression could form late this week or this weekend while the 
wave moves westward or west- northwestward across the eastern and 
central tropical Atlantic. There is a low chance for tropical 
cyclone development in the next 48 hours and a medium chance for 
development in the next 7 days.

The axis of a Caribbean tropical wave is along 67W-68W, extending
from Venezuela across the eastern Dominican Republic, moving 
westward at about 15 kt. Scattered moderate to strong convection 
is noted from 14N to 25N between 67W and 72W.

The axis of a central Caribbean tropical wave is along 77W,
southward across eastern Cuba to northwestern Colombia, moving 
westward at around 15 kt. Scattered moderate convection is 
impacting the Windward Passage, between Cuba and Jamaica, and 
nearby waters. 

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic near 18N16W and extends 
southwestward to 10.5N29W to 1011 mb low pressure near 11N42W to 
07N51W. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is noted
from 05.5N to 11N E of 19W. Elsewhere across the Atlantic, convection
near these features is primarily associated with the tropical 
wave and special feature described above. 

...GULF OF AMERICA...

High pressure prevails over the northern Gulf waters, anchored by
a 1018 mb high near 27N85W. Light to gentle winds and slight seas
prevail across the NE Gulf. Mainly moderate E to S winds, with 
slight to moderate seas, prevail elsewhere. A diurnal surface 
trough has moved offshore the Yucatan Peninsula and into the
central Bay of Campeche overnight, triggering scattered moderate 
convection along it. Behind the trough, fresh SE winds prevail.

For the forecast, high pressure across the NE Gulf will change 
little through Sat before weakening Sun and Mon. This pattern will
produce mostly gentle to moderate E to SE winds across the basin,
with pulses of fresh winds occurring north and west of the 
Yucatan Peninsula and into the Bay of Campeche each evening and 
night, as a diurnal surface trough migrates from the Yucatan 
Peninsula westward across the SW Gulf. Slight to moderate seas are
expected through the forecast period. 

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

See Special Features section for information on a Gale Warning
that has been issued for portion of the south-central basin
effective Fri night. 

The pressure gradient between western Atlantic high pressure along
27N and the Colombian low is supporting fresh to strong winds 
over the south central Caribbean S of 17N. Rough seas to 8 ft prevail
over these waters. Fresh to locally strong trade winds and 
moderate seas to 6 ft prevail over the northeast Caribbean behind
the tropical wave across the eastern Dominican Republic. Gentle 
to moderate winds and moderate seas prevail over the remaining 
waters.

For the forecast, the Atlantic ridge will gradually strengthen 
across the Caribbean basin, behind a tropical wave currently 
moving across the eastern Caribbean, leading to a significant 
expansion in coverage of strong trade winds over the eastern and 
central portions of the basin, today through Sat. Winds are 
expected to increase to gale-force offshore of Colombia and in the
Gulf of Venezuela Fri night. Looking ahead, an area of showers 
and thunderstorms associated with a strong tropical wave located 
over the central Atlantic near 42W is showing some signs of 
organization. Environmental conditions are forecast to be 
conducive for development during the next day or so, and a 
tropical depression will likely form while the system moves 
westward to west-northwestward across the central tropical 
Atlantic. However, by Friday, upper-level winds are likely to 
become too strong for development as the system approaches the 
Lesser Antilles. This system is forecast to reach the Lesser 
Antilles Sat morning, and reach 70W Sun morning.

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

See Special Features section above for information on Invest AL92
located over the central tropical Atlantic.

High pressure prevails over the waters N of 18N, anchored by a 
1022 mb high centered near 28N50W, extending westward to SE 
Florida, and northeastward to a 1024 mb high near 35N26W. Mainly 
gentle winds prevail over the waters N of 24N and west of 23W, 
with slight to moderate seas. Moderate to fresh trade winds are 
noted S of 23N and W of 48W, with moderate seas. Invest AL92 is
currently passing due south of the 1022 mb high center, and
producing a broad swath of fresh to strong winds S of 20N between
37W and 48W. Offshore Africa, fresh to locally strong NE winds 
extend from the Canary Islands to 20N then become moderate to
locally fresh across the Cabo Verde Islands to 30W. Moderate to
locally rough seas prevail across this area. Dry and stable
Saharan Air continues to dominate much of the basin S of 24N to
14N, between Africa and the NE Caribbean.

For the forecast west of 55W, the western Atlantic ridge will 
sink slightly southward Fri and Fri night, before weakening over 
the weekend into early next week. S of 23N, trade winds will 
freshen from E to W today through Sat, behind a tropical wave 
currently across the eastern Caribbean. Fresh trades N of 
Hispaniola and in the approach to the Windward Passage will pulse 
to strong speeds each night. Looking ahead, Invest AL92 is 
forecast to reach the Lesser Antilles Sat morning, and reach 70W 
Sun morning.

$$
Stripling