000
AXNT20 KNHC 181015
TWDAT 

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1215 UTC Thu Jun 18 2026

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600| UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1000 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Post-Tropical Cyclone Arthur has weakened further overnight, and
is now an elongated trough across SE Texas extending into SW
Louisiana, and moving NE around 8 kt. Maximum sustained wind 
speed along the coast is near 30 kt with gusts to 40 kt. 
Scattered moderate to strong convection continues well SE of the
remnants of Arthur, and is across SE Louisiana and the adjacent
coastal waters to the south and east and shifting into coastal
Mississippi. Seas across the SE Texas and Louisianan coastal
waters are estimated at 6 to 10 ft. The remnants of Arthur area
expected to be captured by a middle level trough and accelerate
off to the northeastward today through Friday. On the forecast 
track, the remnants of Arthur should move farther inland over 
southeastern Texas and western Louisiana, early this morning, 
then cross the southeastern United States Thursday through Friday.
While additional weakening is expected as the system moves 
inland, the remnants of Arthur will continue to produce widespread
heavy rains across the southeastern United States during the next
few days. Arthur is expected to produce rainfall totals of 5 to 
10 inches, with isolated higher totals near 20 inches, through 
early Friday, from southern and central portions of Louisiana, 
Mississippi, and Alabama, along with western portions of Georgia 
and the Florida Panhandle. This could generate dangerous to life- 
threatening flash flooding.

Please read the latest HIGH SEAS FORECAST issued by the National 
Hurricane Center at website
- https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml and the latest 
Arthur NHC Forecast/Advisory and Public Advisory at 
www.hurricanes.gov for more details.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

An eastern Atlantic tropical wave is along 23W, south of 16N, 
moving westward at 15-20 kt. Scattered moderate to strong convection
is present from 02N to 08.5N between 17W and 30W.

Another Atlantic tropical wave is along 40W-41W, south of 18N, 
moving westward at 15 kt. Scattered moderate convection is 
observed from 02N to 09N and between 34W and 45W.

An eastern Caribbean tropical wave is along 64W, south of 17N, 
moving westward at 15-20 kt. Scattered showers are seen behind the
wave, S of 14N, between 57W and 64W.

A western Caribbean tropical wave is along 83W, south of 18N, 
moving westward at 15-20 kt. A few clusters of moderate convection
are along the monsoon trough there between Colombia and Nicaragua.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic through the coast of
Guinea-Bissau near 12N16.5W and continues southwestward to 
06.5N21W to 06N31W. The ITCZ extends from 06N31W to 04.5N40W and 
then from 04N42W to 00.5N50W. See the TROPICAL WAVES section for 
details on convection.

...GULF OF AMERICA...

Please refer to the Special Features section above for details on
Post-Tropical Cyclone Arthur impacting portions of the NW and
north-central Gulf and adjacent land areas.

Outside of the influence of ex-Arthur, the remainder of the Gulf 
is dominated by a broad subtropical ridge over the western 
Atlantic, and extending across Florida and into the eastern Gulf.
Fresh to strong southerly winds are generally N of 26W and W of
86W, off the northern Yucatan to 26N. Seas are 6 to 8 ft across
most of this area, except 8 to 10 ft offshore of central
Louisiana. Elsewhere, moderate to fresh southerly winds and 
moderate seas to 6 ft prevail. 

For the forecast, Atlantic high pressure has begun to build
westward across Florida and into the Gulf basin tonight, in the
wake of Arthur, and will tighten the pressure gradient through 
Thu night, to sustain fresh to strong southerly winds over the 
western and central Gulf, and moderate to fresh winds over the 
eastern Gulf. Expect rough seas N of 27N and offshore of the 
Louisiana coast this morning to shift eastward with these winds 
through Thu night before diminishing. Winds and seas will diminish
basin-wide late Fri through the weekend as weak high pressure 
settles over the eastern Gulf. 

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

The broad subtropical ridge over the western Atlantic extends
westward along 27N-28N and across south-central Florida. This
pressure pattern is forcing fresh to strong easterly trade winds 
and moderate to rough seas in the central Caribbean and across the 
Gulf of Honduras. Moderate easterly winds and 4-7 ft seas are 
noted elsewhere. A lingering middle-level trough across the
central Bahamas and Cuba is supporting lingering scattered
moderate convection from the Windward Passage to the NE coasts of
Honduras and Nicaragua.

For the forecast, the western Atlantic ridge will remain in place
along 27N-28N through the upcoming weekend, while weakening
slightly Fri night through Sun, as a frontal system clips the 
waters off NE Florida. The pressure gradient south of the ridge 
will sustain fresh to strong trade winds and moderate to rough 
seas in the south-central Caribbean through the forecast period, 
with highest winds and seas expected off the coast of Colombia. 
Pulsing winds at fresh to strong speeds and moderate to rough seas
are expected in the Gulf of Honduras nightly through Mon, pulsing
briefly to near gale-force Thu night and Fri night. Moderate to 
fresh E to SE winds are expected elsewhere across the northwestern
Caribbean through Mon. Active showers and thunderstorms are 
expected across SW portions through Sat as an upper-level trough 
digs into the area. 

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

The Bermuda-Azores subtropical ridge dominates the tropical
Atlantic, and extends along about 27N-28N. The ridge is
interruptedby a frontal trough extending into the area from 
31N34W to 26N44W. A few showers are along this trough. Moderate to
locally fresh easterly winds and seas of 4-7 ft are found south 
of 23N and west of 35W into the SE Bahamas. In the far east, fresh
to strong N to NE winds and seas of 5-8 ft are present from 17N 
to 24N and east of 27W. Moderate to locally fresh S to SW winds 
extend from the NW Bahamas N-NE across the waters W of 75W, where 
seas are 4 ft or less. Elsewhere, fresh or weaker winds and 
moderate seas are prevalent.

For the forecast west of 55W, the western Atlantic ridge will 
remain in place along 27N-28N through the upcoming weekend, while
weakening slightly Fri night through Sun, as a frontal system 
clips the waters offshore of NE Florida. The related pressure 
gradient will maintain moderate to locally fresh trade winds south
of 22N through Sun. Moderate to locally fresh SW winds offshore 
of northeast Florida to near 75W will expand eastward to near 70W 
through tonight, as a weak frontal system moves across the 
southeastern U.S. The front is expected to move slowly offshore 
early Sat and stall offshore NE Florida by Sun, allowing the 
moderate to fresh SW winds to shift eastward ahead of it across 
the northern waters. Expect fresh to strong winds each afternoon 
through late evening across Atlantic waters near Puerto Rico and 
Hispaniola. 

$$
Stripling