000
AXNT20 KNHC 301705
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1815 UTC Sat May 30 2026

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 
1700 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Atlantic Gale Warning: A cold front will move across the waters
between northeast Florida and Bermuda tonight into Sunday. A 
tight pressure gradient will support gale force winds on either 
side of the cold front Sun afternoon, south and southeast of 
Bermuda generally N of 29N between 55W and 65W. Strong to near- 
gale force winds, rough to very rough seas, and scattered to 
numerous thunderstorms are also expected mainly along and ahead of
the front, north of 26N. Conditions will improve Mon as the front
weakens and high pressure builds in its wake.

Please read the latest High Seas and Offshore Waters Forecast
issued by the National Hurricane Center at websites -
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml and
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/marine/offshores.php for more details.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

An east Atlantic tropical wave is analyzed along 17W, south of 
16N. The wave is moving westward at 10 to 15 kt. Scattered 
moderate convection is noted from 02N to 09N between 10W and 21W.

A central Atlantic tropical wave is along 61W, south of 17N, 
moving westward at 15 to 20 kt. Scattered moderate to isolated 
strong convection is observed from 05N to 13N between 57W and 
62W.

A Caribbean tropical wave is analyzed along 75W, south of 16N,
moving westward at 5 to 10 kt. Scattered showers are seen near the
wave axis.
 
...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic through the coast of
Guinea-Bissau near 11N16W and continues southwestward to 06N22W. 
The ITCZ extends from 06N22W to 04N51W. Scattered moderate
convection is seen along and within 200 nm of the monsoon trough
and ITCZ from 22W westward.

...GULF OF AMERICA...

Divergence aloft associated with a sharp upper level trough over
the western Gulf and a broad surface trough over the central to SW 
Gulf combine to produce scattered showers and isolated 
thunderstorms over a the eastern half of the basin. At the 
surface, a weak pressure gradient results in moderate or lighter 
winds and slight seas. However, stronger winds and higher seas 
can occur within stronger thunderstorms.

For the forecast, the Atlantic ridge extends across Florida into 
the Gulf region. This system will sustain gentle to moderate E to 
SE winds through midweek. The exception will be evening pulses of 
fresh winds off the northern Yucatan and in the central Gulf 
through the same period. A pronounced deep-layered upper-level 
trough across the western Gulf combined with a very warm, humid 
and unstable airmass will continue to support rounds of showers 
and thunderstorms, across the central and eastern Gulf through at 
least Sun. Frequent lightning, with gusty winds and locally rough 
seas are expected in strong thunderstorms. Mariners are urged to 
keep up to date with the latest forecasts. 

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

A few showers and thunderstorms are active over the far southwest
Caribbean near the eastern extension of the East Pacific monsoon
trough. In the NW Caribbean, scattered moderate to strong
convection is developing along a surface trough analyzed from the
Gulf of Honduras along the coasts of Belize and the eastern
Yucatan Peninsula. No other significant convection is observed at
this time. A strong Atlantic ridge extends southwestward into 
the Caribbean, supporting fresh to strong easterly trade winds and
seas of 6-8 ft in the south-central Caribbean, confirmed by 
scatterometer and altimeter data from this morning. Moderate to 
fresh breezes and moderate seas are found in the rest of the basin
away from the lee of Cuba, where light to gentle winds and slight
to moderate seas prevail.

For the forecast, the Atlantic ridge combined with the Colombian 
low will support moderate to fresh E to SE trade winds across most
of the basin through the early part of the next week, with fresh 
to strong winds and rough seas over the south-central Caribbean. 
Looking ahead, the area of fresh to strong winds and rough seas 
will expand across the central Caribbean Tue and Wed as the ridge 
builds north of the area.

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A stationary front extends along 30-31N from near 58W to a 1012 mb
low near 31N78W, with a dissipating stationary front between the
low and the GA coast. A surface trough extends from the low to the
northern Bahamas, and is supporting scattered moderate convection
along and east of the trough. SW winds ahead of the front,
generally N of 27N between 55W and 63W are increasing to fresh to
strong speeds while seas build to 7-9 ft. Ridging prevails across
much of the remaining Atlantic. Fresh to strong NE winds and 6-9
ft seas prevail N of 14N and E of 25W, confirmed by scatterometer
data from this morning. Moderate to fresh trades and moderate seas
prevail across much of the Atlantic W of 25W and S of 22N. The
remainder of the basin away from any fronts or other features is
seeing gentle to moderate or weaker winds and slight to moderate
seas.

For the forecast west of 55W, a few thunderstorms are active near
a 1012 mb low pressure area located off northeast Florida. The 
low is along a stationary front extending from 31N58W to the low 
center. Fresh to strong winds and rough seas will follow the low 
pressure as it moves eastward through tonight ahead of a 
reinforcing cold front moving into the area. The combined fronts 
will shift eastward, reaching from Bermuda to the northern Bahamas
by early Sun. Expect strong winds and rough to very rough seas 
along and ahead of the front north of 25N Sun, with gale-force 
winds south of Bermuda near 30N63W by Sun afternoon. The front 
will weaken and stall from 31N57W to 27N65W by early Mon. Winds 
and seas diminish west of the front as high pressure builds 
between northeast Florida and Bermuda. Looking ahead, a second low
pressure area and accompanying front may move off northeast 
Florida by late Mon and shift eastward toward Bermuda through mid 
week, accompanied by fresh to strong winds and rough seas over the
waters north of 27N.

$$
Adams