000
AXNT20 KNHC 302141
TWDAT 

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0015 UTC Fri Jul 31 2026

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 
2115 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Caribbean Gale Warning: A tight pressure gradient between the
subtropical ridge north of the islands and lower pressures in NW
South America will support strong to near gale-force winds and 
rough seas in the central Caribbean during the next several days.
Winds will increase to gale-force in the offshore waters of 
Colombia and in the Gulf of Venezuela tonight. Seas are expected 
to build to around 13 ft with these winds. Please read the 
latest High Seas Forecast issued by the National Hurricane Center 
at website - https://www.nhc.gov/text/MIAHFSAT2.shtml

...TROPICAL WAVES...

An eastern to central Atlantic tropical wave is along 36W, south 
of 20N, moving quickly westward at 20 to 25 kt. Scattered 
moderate to isolated strong convection is present from 04N to 07N
between 25W and 30.5W.

A tropical N Atlantic tropical wave is along 57W, south of 19N
to near Barbados and Suriname, moving quickly westward at around 
20 to 25 kt. Nearby convection which is present is described below
with the ITCZ.

An western Caribbean tropical wave is along 79W, south of 20N
just to the west of Jamaica, moving quickly westward at around 25
kt. Any nearby convection is currently observed in the far eastern
Tropical Pacific.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough reaches the Atlantic from the northern coast of 
Mauritania at 20N16W to southeast of the Cabo Verde Islands to
09N28W to 12N40W. The ITCZ extends from 12N40W to 10N56W, then 
resumes west of a tropical wave from 10N58W to the far NE coast of
Venezuela at 08N62W. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection
is noted within 210 nm NNW of the ITCZ between 48W and 59W.

...GULF OF AMERICA...

High pressure of 1018 mb is remaining over the central Gulf near
25N88W with a northwest to southeast ridge through the high. As a
result, anticyclonic winds are light to gentle along and around
the ridge axis, and moderate along the periphery closer to the
Gulf coastlines. Seas are 1 to 2 ft near the weaker winds, and 2
to 4 ft elsewhere. Some moderate convection is noted near the NW
coast of Yucatan near a surface trough analyzed over the
peninsula, with additional activity near the coast of Florida,
Mississippi and Alabama.

For the forecast, a surface ridge will remain in control of the 
weather pattern across the Gulf region promoting gentle to 
moderate winds for the next several days. The exception will be 
fresh NE winds off the northwest coast of the Yucatan peninsula 
nightly into the weekend. Unsettled weather in the form of 
scattered showers and thunderstorms will continue over the NE Gulf
through the weekend as a frontal boundary remains just N of the 
area, and at the same a very moist and unstable airmass prevails 
over region.

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

Please see the Special Features section above for details on the
Gale Warning in effect for the south-central Caribbean.

High pressure north of the islands forces fresh to near gale-
force easterly trade winds and rough seas across the central 
Caribbean, with the strongest winds and highest seas to 11 ft 
occurring off NW Colombia. Moderate to fresh easterly breezes and
moderate seas are found elsewhere from 11N to 18N. Across the 
remainder of the basin, moderate or weaker winds and slight to 
locally moderate seas prevail. Some convection is present near
eastern Honduras and Nicaragua due to the proximity of a tropical
wave and lower to mid level support.

For the forecast, a Gale Warning is in effect tonight for the 
offshore waters of Colombia and for the Gulf of Venezuela. Seas 
are expected to build to around 14 ft with these winds. Elsewhere 
across the central Caribbean, fresh to near gale trades will 
continue to expand in coverage through early Fri as the pressure 
gradient between the Atlantic high pressure and low pressure in 
northern Colombian tightens. Mostly fresh trades will continue 
elsewhere south S of about 18N through the rest of the forecast 
period. Fresh to strong winds will pulse in the Gulf of Honduras 
tonight and Fri night, then to fresh speeds for the remainder of 
the period.

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A frontal boundary is just north of the discussion waters and SW N
Atlantic offshore waters zones from northwest of Bermuda to 1011 
mb low pressure near 32N79.5W to near Savannah, Georgia. 
Associated scattered moderate isolated strong convection is north 
of 27N and west of 69W. Fresh to strong SW winds and 5 to 9 ft 
seas are there as well. Otherwise, a broad subtropical ridge 
continues to dominate much of the tropical Atlantic waters
anchored by a 1025 mb high pressure center near 31N51W. Moderate
to locally fresh trades are noted north of the monsoon trough and
ITCZ to 20N, except fresh to strong N to NE winds from offshore
Africa to the Cabo Verde Islands. Seas are 6 to 9 ft across the
area of fresh to strong winds, as well as in the Tropical N
Atlantic offshore waters zones due to the proximity of a tropical
wave. Moderate or weaker winds and moderate seas dominate the
remainder of the tropical Atlantic waters.

For the forecast west of 55W, a high pressure ridge extending 
from near 25N65W to the Straits of Florida will change little 
through Sat night before it shifts northward to near 28N into 
early next week. The gradient between the ridge and a frontal 
boundary just NW of the forecast waters will continue to generally
support fresh to strong SW winds along with scattered showers and
thunderstorms primarily north of 27N and west of 65W for the rest
of the week and into the weekend. Fresh to strong trades will 
pulse just north of Hispaniola at night and into the mornings 
through the upcoming weekend. 

$$
Lewitsky