000
AXNT20 KNHC 031645
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1815 UTC Mon Aug 3 2026

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 
1645 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

An eastern Atlantic tropical wave is along 35W, south of 20N, 
moving westward at 15 to 20 kt. No significant convection is
depicted at this time in association with this wave. 

An eastern Caribbean tropical wave is along 69W, from eastern
Hispaniola southward, moving westward at around 15 kt. Isolated moderate
convection is noted from 13N to 15N between 63W and 70W. 

A western Caribbean tropical wave is along 89W, southward from 
the Gulf of Honduras into the Eastern Pacific. More information 
about this wave can be found in the Eastern Pacific Tropical 
Weather Discussion (TWDEP). 


...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic near 20N16W and continues
southwestward to 09N46W. The ITCZ extends from 09N46W to 08N59W. 
Scattered moderate convection is noted from 05N to 11N E of 20W. 

...GULF OF AMERICA...

A stationary front is analyzed along much of the northern Gulf
coast. Scattered moderate convection is confined to the eastern
side of the basin W of 25N. High pressure north of the area is
supporting light and variable winds across most of the basin,
except for moderate SW winds over the NE Gulf and moderate E 
winds over the Bay of Campeche. Seas 3 to 5 ft prevail over the NE
Gulf and the Bay of Campeche, elsewhere, 1 to 3 ft seas prevail. 
 
For the forecast, high pressure will generally dominate, 
promoting gentle winds and slight seas this week. Pulses of fresh 
winds will occur of the Yucatan Peninsula each night, locally 
strong Wed night, along with moderate seas. Thunderstorms will 
prevail into mid- week in the northeast basin as a cold front 
settles over the Florida Panhandle and a mid- and upper-level 
trough sets up over the region. 
 
...CARIBBEAN SEA...

See Tropical Waves section above for information on convection
impacting the basin.

The westward-building subtropical high pressure system positioned
over the central Atlantic is forcing fresh to strong easterly 
trade winds and rough seas over much of the central Caribbean. 
Moderate to locally fresh easterly winds and moderate seas are 
found in the eastern Caribbean. Elsewhere, moderate or weaker 
winds and slight to moderate seas prevail. 

For the forecast, the pressure gradient between Atlantic high 
pressure and relatively lower pressure in northern South America 
will continue to support fresh to strong trades over the central 
basin this week, with rough seas there. Fresh to locally strong 
winds will also pulse in the Gulf of Honduras. Fresh winds may 
pulse through the Windward Passage at times. Otherwise, mainly 
moderate or weaker winds ands seas will prevail. 

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A deep-layer trough extending down the eastern United States
toward western Cuba is leading aiding in broad ascent, combining
with abundant tropical moisture to induce scattered moderate to 
isolated strong convection N of Cuba and W of 71W, including 
waters in the vicinity of the Bahamas. Elsewhere, the tropical 
Atlantic is dominated by a 1026 mb high pressure system centered 
near 33N57W, supporting fresh to locally strong southerly winds 
and seas of 4-6 ft north of 30N and west of 77.5W. Another area 
of fresh to strong NE winds is in the vicinity of the Canary 
Islands. Elsewhere, mainly moderate winds and seas prevail across 
much of the tropical Atlantic.

For the forecast west of 55W, fresh to strong SW winds offshore 
NE Florida will continue into early afternoon before diminishing 
as high pressure builds west toward the region. An upper-level 
trough along the eastern coast of the U.S. will prolong scattered 
thunderstorms offshore Florida and in the vicinity of the Bahamas 
early this week. Elsewhere, locally strong trades will continue to
pulse each night offshore Hispaniola. A low level trough may 
bring fresh to locally strong winds and locally rough seas from 
east to west across the central waters by mid-week, reaching the 
NW waters by the end of the week.

$$
KRV