383 
AXNT20 KNHC 271701
TWDAT 

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1815 UTC Sat Jun 27 2026

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 
1800 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Caribbean Gale Warning: At 1341 UTC, a scatterometer pass
indicated strong to near-gale-force winds occurring in the
south-central Caribbean offshore northern Colombia. Frequent gusts
to gale-force can be anticipated at times this afternoon. A tight
pressure gradient between Atlantic high pressure and relatively 
low pressure over Colombia will lead to the trade winds offshore 
of Colombia and in the Gulf of Venezuela peaking at gale-force 
again tonight into Sun morning. These winds are forecast to 
produce seas in the range of 12 to 15 ft north of Colombia. Please
refer to High Seas and Offshore Waters Forecasts issued by the 
National Hurricane Center at websites:
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml and
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/marine/offshores.php for more
information.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

An eastern Atlantic tropical wave is analyzed from 10N35W to
01N40W, and is moving westward at 15 to 20 kt. Scattered moderate
to isolated strong convection is largely W of the wave, south of 
10N between 37W and 47W.

A central Atlantic tropical wave is analyzed from 20N50W to 07N58W,
and is moving westward near 15 kt. Scattered moderate convection 
is observed south of 15N between 52W and 62W.

A western Caribbean tropical wave is near 88W, south of 19N, 
moving westward at 15 to 20 kt. The wave is enhancing shower 
activity in Central America and along the eastern Pacific coast.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

A monsoon trough enters the Atlantic through the coast of
Mauritania near 18N16W and continues southwestward to 09N24W. The
ITCZ extends from 09N24W to 08N34W and then from 03N40W to 
02N51W. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is 
occurring east of 20W between 04N and 14N.

...GULF OF AMERICA...

Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms continue to affect 
the Bay of Campeche as a tropical wave passes by to the south.
Ridging extending over the eastern Gulf waters supports moderate
to locally fresh SE-S winds and seas of 3-5 ft west of 90W. 
Elsewhere, moderate or lighter winds and slight seas prevail.

For the forecast, a ridge will persist over the Gulf region 
through the forecast period. Gentle to moderate anticyclonic winds
will generally prevail across the basin during this time, except 
for fresh to locally strong NE to E winds pulsing off the 
northwestern Yucatan Peninsula nightly through Wed, and moderate 
to locally fresh SE to S winds across the northwestern Gulf 
through Sun night. Looking ahead, a weak frontal boundary will 
sink southward into the northeast Gulf Mon night into Tue and 
gradually dissipate.

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

Please read the Special Features section about a Gale Warning off
Colombia.

Outside of the Gale Warning area, the subtropical ridge over the
central Atlantic is forcing fresh to strong easterly trade winds 
and moderate to rough seas over much of the central Caribbean and 
the Gulf of Honduras, as well as the Windward Passage. Moderate to
fresh easterly breezes and moderate seas are occurring in the 
eastern Caribbean. Elsewhere, moderate or weaker winds and slight 
to moderate seas prevail. 

For the forecast, a ridge north of the islands combined with the 
Colombian Low will support fresh to strong trade winds and rough 
to locally very rough seas in the central Caribbean through the 
forecast period. Winds will pulse to gale-force offshore of 
Colombia, and in the Gulf of Venezuela during the nighttime and 
early morning hours today and tonight. Elsewhere, pulsing fresh to
strong winds and moderate to locally rough seas are expected in 
the Gulf of Honduras tonight. Fresh to strong NE winds and 
moderate to locally rough seas will briefly affect the Windward 
Passage late this afternoon into early Sun. Moderate or lighter 
winds and slight to moderate seas are forecast across the 
remainder of the basin.

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A couple of surface troughs located along 65W and 58W are 
producing scattered showers north of 22N and between 55W and 65W.
Upper level jet dynamics, along with a tropical wave passing to
the south, are supporting scattered moderate convection from 21N
to 27N between 45W and 49W. A few showers and isolated 
thunderstorms are also noted in the convergent surface winds off 
SE Florida and the NW Bahamas. The tropical Atlantic is dominated 
by a broad subtropical ridge that supports moderate to fresh 
easterly winds and moderate seas across much of the basin.

For the forecast west of 55W, a persistent subtropical ridge will
dominate the forecast area through the weekend. Fresh to strong 
easterly winds, with locally rough seas are expected offshore 
Hispaniola expected this afternoon and tonight. A nearly north-to-
south aligned surface trough located near 65W will shift westward
across the region through Sun, reaching near 70W by Sun morning 
while dissipating. This will weaken the ridge and lead to 
diminishing winds. Looking ahead, a weak cold front will sink 
southward into the waters off northeastern Florida Mon night and 
gradually dissipate. 

$$
Adams