000
AXNT20 KNHC 261656
TWDAT 

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1815 UTC Sat Sep 26 2026

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 
1655 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Tropical Depression Fay is centered near 29.6N 44.0W at 26/1500
UTC or 980 nm WSW of the Azores, moving WSW at 4 kt. Estimated
minimum central pressure is 1009 mb. Maximum sustained wind
speed is 30 kt with gusts to 40 kt. Peak seas to 12 ft are 
occurring across the N semicircle. Scattered moderate convection 
is noted from 28N to 30N between 43W and 46.5W. Little change in
strength is forecast over the next several days.

Tropical Storm Gonzalo is centered near 18.8N 23.0W at 26/1500 
UTC or 130 nm N of Sal Cabo Verde, moving NNW at 9 kt. Estimated 
minimum central pressure is 1005 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed 
is 35 kt with gusts to 45 kt. Peak seas are near 18 ft in the NE 
quadrant. Gonzalo is a sheared storm with numerous moderate 
isolated strong convection extending from 18N to 28N between 16.5W
and 20.5W. On the forecast track, the center will continue to 
move away from northeastern portions of the Cabo Verde Islands 
today. Additional weakening is forecast, and Gonzalo is expected 
to become a remnant low in the next 12-24 hours. Swells generated 
by Gonzalo are expected to affect portions of the Cabo Verde 
Islands through today before diminishing Sunday. These swells are 
likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. 
Please consult products from your local weather office.

Please read the latest HIGH SEAS FORECAST issued by the National 
Hurricane Center at website - 
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml and the latest Fay
and Gonzalo NHC Forecast/Advisories and Public Advisories at 
www.hurricanes.gov for more details.

Very Large NE Swell: A cold front extends from near 31N68.5W 
through the north-central Bahamas and to the NW coast of Cuba. 
Deepening low pressure off the middle Atlantic coast of the U.S. 
has produce gale to storm force N to NE winds pointing toward 
Florida and the SE U.S. coast, and generating large swell. This 
swell is propagating into the area behind the cold front, 
producing seas of 8 to 12 ft generally to the N of 26W and W of 
65W. Rough seas will follow the front through later this afternoon,
before starting to subside through Sun morning.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A tropical wave is analyzed along 63W, south of 18N, moving west 
at near 15 kt. The wave is being sheared by an upper-level low 
center across the NE Caribbean. No significant convection is
depicted at this time in association to this wave. 

A tropical wave is in the W Caribbean with axis along 81W, S of 
16N, extending across Panama, moving west at 10 to 15 kt. 
Scattered moderate convection is depicted along the wave axis. 

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough extends from 14.5N22W to 08N41W. The ITCZ 
extends from 08N41W to 11.5N61W. Aside from convection associated
with Gonzalo, numerous convection is depicted from 09.52N to 15N
between 49W and 60W. Scattered moderate convection is noted from 
04N to 14N between 22W and 40W.

...GULF OF AMERICA...

A weakening stationary front extends from W Cuba to the south-central
Gulf to the Rio Grande river. Isolated showers can be found along
the weakening front. Scattered moderate convection is found over 
the central Bay of Campeche along a surface trough. Moderate or 
weaker winds and slight seas prevail basin- wide.

For the forecast, light to gentle winds, and slight to moderate 
seas, will prevail through the weekend. Winds and seas will 
gradually increase from the early to the middle part of next week.

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

A weaker than usual pressure gradient across the nearby Atlantic
and Caribbean basin is translating to gentle to moderate trades 
over most of the basin, with the exception of locally fresh east 
winds offshore western Venezuela and NE Colombia. Seas are 4 to 6 
ft in the south-central Caribbean, 2 ft or less in the NW, and 3 
to 5 ft elsewhere. A middle to upper-level low center is over the
NE Caribbean and promoting sinking air and stable conditions 
across much of central portions. The eastern end of the Eastern 
Pacific monsoon trough is supporting a cluster of scattered 
showers and thunderstorms offshore of central and western 
Colombia. Scattered moderate convection is present across the 
waters between Jamaica and Cuba.

For the forecast, a weak pressure gradient will support moderate 
to fresh trades over the south-central Caribbean, and gentle to 
moderate winds elsewhere. Slight to moderate seas will be over the
NW Caribbean with moderate seas elsewhere. 

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

See Special Features section above for information on Tropical
Storm Gonzalo, Tropical Depression Fay and on significant swell 
propagating southward into waters offshore Florida and NE of the 
Bahamas to 65W.

A vigorous upper-level trough along the eastern seaboard of the
U.S. supports the deep low pressure off the middle Atlantic coast,
and a cold front across the western Atlantic waters from 31N68.5W
to the north-central Bahamas to NW coast of Cuba. Scattered to 
locally numerous moderate isolated strong convection is occurring 
ahead of the front to 64.5W. Moderate to fresh SW winds are 
occurring N of 23N and ahead of the front to 62W, where seas are 
5 to 9 ft in N swell. Behind the front, moderate NW to N winds 
prevail. Seas are 8 to 12 ft in mostly N to NE swell. To the east,
a surface trough supported by a mid-level low is inducing 
numerous moderate convection from 24N to 30N between 54W and 62W.
Moderate lo locally fresh winds and seas 4 to 6 ft are present in
the vicinity of this trough. E of this area, high pressure across
the NE Atlantic drapes across Tropical Depression Fay. The weak 
pressure gradient to the south continues to yield a belt of 
moderate trades from 10N to 21N W of 40W to the Lesser Antilles, 
where seas are 5 to 6 ft. Farther E, moderate to fresh NE to E 
winds prevail S of the monsoon trough to 24N between 19W and 30W,
where seas are 5 to 8 ft in NE swell from Gonzalo. Otherwise 
mainly gentle winds prevail. 

For the forecast west of 55W, the aforementioned cold front will 
reach from near Bermuda to central Cuba tonight before starting to
weaken. Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms are expected
along the frontal boundary. Moderate to fresh winds are expected 
east of the front this weekend before diminishing. Rough to very 
rough seas behind the front will gradually subside through the 
weekend.

$$
KRV