000
AXNT20 KNHC 151637
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1815 UTC Wed Apr 15 2026

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 
1637 UTC.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic near 07N12.5W, then 
continues SW to 02N15.5W. The ITCZ extends from 02N15.5W to 
02S32W. Scattered to numerous moderate convection is noted from 
06S to 05N between 12W and 30W. Scattered moderate convection is 
noted from 02S to 04N between 37W and 44W. 

...GULF OF AMERICA...

A ridge extends from high pressure over the west-central Atlantic
across Florida into the Gulf. The pressure gradient between the
ridge and the diurnal trough over the Bay of Campeche supports 
moderate to fresh E to SE winds and seas 4 to 6 ft over the SW 
Gulf. Elsewhere, moderate to locally fresh SE winds prevail along 
seas 2 to 5 ft, except for the NE Gulf where light to gentle 
winds prevail along with seas 1 to 3 ft. 

For the forecast, a ridge extends from high pressure over the 
west- central Atlantic across Florida into the Gulf. This pattern
will maintain moderate to fresh E to SE winds and mostly moderate
seas through Sat, except in the NE and N-central parts of the 
basin where mainly gentle to moderate winds and slight to moderate
seas will prevail. Expect stronger winds to pulse off the Yucatan
Peninsula each night through Sun. Looking ahead, fresh to strong 
NE winds and building seas will follow a cold front moving across 
the northern Gulf Sun and Sun night. 

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

An upper-low is inducing a surface trough that extends from the
Atlantic southward to north of the Mona Passage. A ridge north of
the Bahamas is forcing moderate to locally fresh NE winds with 
seas 4 to 5 ft through the Windward Passage and to the lee of 
Cuba. Fresh to locally strong winds with seas 4 to 6 ft are also 
occurring just north of Colombia. Elsewhere, winds are moderate or
weaker with seas of 3 to 5 ft.

For the forecast, high pressure over the west-central Atlantic 
combined with the Colombian low will maintain fresh trade winds 
and moderate seas off the coast of Colombia through tonight, then 
mainly gentle to moderate winds are expected the remainder of the 
week. Fresh to locally strong northeast winds and moderate seas 
will persist south of Cuba, and in the Windward Passage through 
tonight. Winds and seas will diminish across the basin late in the
week. 

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

As previously mentioned, an upper-low is inducing a surface trough
that extends from 29N64W southward to north of the Mona Passage. 
Scattered moderate convection is occurring from 19N to 25N 
between 60W and 67W. Farther northeast, a stationary front 
extends from 31N35W to 29.5N47W. Isolated moderate convection is 
occurring within 60 NM of the front. A Bermuda- Azores High 
located north of the forecast waters is interacting with the 
surface trough to cause moderate to fresh NE winds from Bermuda, 
across the Bahamas, and to the Cuban coast. Seas are 5 to 9 ft 
east of the Bahamas. A moderate pressure gradient between the 
Bermuda- Azores High and lower pressure in the vicinity over the 
ITCZ is forcing moderate to locally fresh NE to E trades and 
moderate to rough seas over the remainder of the forecast waters. 
Near the coast of NW Africa, NE winds are fresh to strong north of
29N and east of 17W with seas of 7 to 9 ft. 

For the forecast west of 55W, a surface trough between Bermuda 
and Puerto Rico will drift west toward Hispaniola today, then will
remain nearly stationary through Fri while gradually dissipating.
Fresh to strong NE winds and rough seas will persist west of the 
trough through tonight, with conditions gradually improving 
thereafter as the trough weakens. High pressure will follow the 
trough. Looking ahead, a cold front is forecast to move off the 
coast of northeast Florida Sun night. Expect fresh to strong N to 
NE winds and building seas in the wake of the front. 

$$
KRV