474 
AXNT20 KNHC 171614
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1815 UTC Mon Aug 17 2026

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 
1600 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A far eastern tropical wave has its axis along south of 19N. It is 
moving westward at 10 to 15 kt. Scattered moderate convection is 
observed from 07N to 18N between 13W and 25W.

A central Atlantic tropical wave has its axis near 38W, extending
from 02N to 18N, and moving westward at 15 kt. Scattered moderate
convection is from 08N to 10N between 35W and 40W.

Another central tropical wave is east of the Lesser Antilles with
its axis near 56W, south of 18N, moving westward at 15 to 20 kt. 
Scattered moderate to isolated convection is within 240 nm west of
the wave from 12N to 15N.

A Caribbean tropical wave has its axis along 75W south of 19N.
It is moving westward at about 15 kt. Numerous moderate to strong
convection is ahead of the wave axis and over the Nicaragua, 
Costa Rica and Panama offshore waters. 

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough axis enters the Atlantic through 18N16W and 
continues southwestward to 12N20W and to 12N30W to 12N35W to 
10N42W, where it transitions to the ITCZ to 12N50W and to 13N57W.
No significant convection is evident aside from the convection 
discussed in the Tropical Waves section above.

...GULF OF AMERICA...

High pressure dominates the Gulf waters, supporting light to
gentle variable winds and slight seas north of 24N. Moderate 
northeast to east winds are over the central and eastern Bay of 
Campeche due to a westward moving trough that is now in the 
central Bay of Campeche. Seas to around 6 ft are over the waters 
where these winds are present. Moderate northeast to east winds
are over the lower Straits of Florida and the approaches to the 
Yucatan Channel.

For the forecast, high pressure will prevail across the Gulf 
waters through the week. A weak pressure gradient will support 
mostly gentle to moderate winds across much of the basin. A 
diurnally induced surface trough will generate fresh to 
occasionally strong winds north of the Yucatan peninsula early 
each evening. These winds will spread westward away from the 
Yucatan at night as the trough migrates into the SW Gulf. Slight 
to moderate seas are expected through the forecast period.

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

Numerous showers and thunderstorms are noted over the western
Caribbean Sea from 15N to 18N west of 82W to just inland Honduras 
and Nicaragua Similar convection is confined to the southwestern
Caribbean south of 12N between 74W and 81W, including most of
Panama and just inland northwest Colombia. Fresh to strong trades
cover most of the central portion of the basin and the eastern
portion of the western portion. Seas are 8 to 10 ft with these
trades. Elsewhere, moderate to fresh trades are exist elsewhere 
along with moderate seas. Fresh northeast winds are in the
Windward Passage. Gentle to moderate trades are over the remainder 
of the western portion of the sea, except for fresh east winds in
the lee side of Cuba.

For the forecast, the pressure gradient between a ridge north of 
the area and the Colombian low will support fresh to strong winds 
over the central Caribbean though late today. The area of high 
pressure will then weaken through midweek, loosening the pressure 
gradient with resultant winds diminishing slightly. High pressure 
will build north of the area once again the second half of the 
week, tightening the pressure gradient, and strengthening winds 
over the central Caribbean. 

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A cold front extends from a 1010 mb gale center north of the
area near 34N52W southwestward to 31N54W to 29N57W and to 28N64W 
to 28N68W and northwestward to 31N74W, transitioning to 
stationary front north of there. Latest satellite scatterometer 
data shows fresh to strong southwest winds north of 28N east of 
front to near 49W. Seas are 6 to 9 ft with these winds. Scattered 
to numerous showers and thunderstorms are present within 180 nm 
east-southeast of the front north of 25N, and within 120 nm south 
of the front between 62W and 66W and also between 70W and 73W.
 
The central and eastern subtropical Atlantic is under the 
influence of a 1028 mb high pressure center located north of
the Azores. Its related gradient is s supporting moderate or 
weaker winds and moderate seas, except for moderate to fresh 
northeast winds east of 20W.

For the forecast west of 55W, the aforementioned cold front will 
will stall and weaken into a trough by Tue. Moderate winds in the
vicinity of the front will diminish tonight. Otherwise, a weak 
pressure gradient will support mainly light to gentle winds, 
locally moderate, across much of the area north of 22N through 
the week. Moderate to locally fresh winds can be expected south 
of about 22N.

$$
Aguirre