000
AXNT20 KNHC 101706
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1815 UTC Mon Aug 10 2026

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 
1700 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A tropical wave is along 27W and extends from 08N to 17N, moving 
westward at 10 to 15 kt. Scattered moderate convection is from 07N
to 13N between 21W and 35W. 

A tropical wave is near 43W from 08N to 17N, moving west at 
around 10 kt. Scattered moderate convection is from 08N to 16N 
between 40W and 50W. 

A tropical wave is along 56-57W from 14N to 23N, moving west at 
15 kt. Saharan Air surrounds this wave, and thus no significant 
convection currently accompanies the wave.

A tropical wave is along 75W and S of 20N, moving west at 15 to 
20 kt. Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms are seen over
the waters between Cuba, Jamaica, and Haiti, and also N of 15N
between 67W and 80W.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic through the coast of Mauritania
near 19N16W and continues southwestward to 11N46W. The ITCZ 
extends from 11N46W to 08N61W. Aside from the convection 
associated with the tropical waves, no other significant convection
is noted at this time.

...GULF OF AMERICA...

Scattered showers and thunderstorms continue to dot the Gulf 
waters, mainly near southwest Florida, the Bay of Campeche, and 
over the NW part of the basin. A diffluent pattern aloft is 
helping to induce this convective activity. A surface ridge 
extends from the Bermuda High west-southwestward across northern 
Florida and across the northern Gulf along 29N. This pattern is 
supporting light to gentle winds and slight of 3 ft or less over 
most of the basin. Moderate to fresh NE winds are occurring across
the nearshore waters along the N and W coast of the Yucatan 
Peninsula, W of a surface trough over the Peninsula. Moderate 
easterly winds and seas of 3 to 5 ft prevail across the Straits 
of Florida. 
 
For the forecast, a surface ridge extends from the Bermuda High 
westward across the northern Gulf, and will dominate the general 
wind flow pattern across basin through the week. Gentle to 
moderate E to SE winds prevail north of 24N along with slight 
seas. Pulses of fresh winds will occur north and west of the 
Yucatan Peninsula and into the Bay of Campeche each evening and 
night as a diurnal surface trough migrates from the Yucatan 
Peninsula westward across the SW Gulf. 

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

The pressure gradient between a 1024 mb high pressure located 
just southwest of Bermuda and lower pressure over northern South
America continues to promote fresh to strong trade winds over the
central Caribbean between 65W and 80W. Seas are 7 to 10 ft with 
these winds. Moderate to fresh winds are E of 65W across the 
eastern Caribbean. Seas are 3 to 6 ft there. Fresh to strong NE 
winds are also present across the Windward Passage, where seas are
5 to 7 ft. Gentle to moderate trades prevail elsewhere across NW 
portions, with seas of 2 to 5 ft. 

For the forecast, the pressure gradient between a 1024 mb Bermuda
High and lower pressure in northern South America will continue 
to support fresh to strong trades in the south-central and 
portions of the SW basin will into the week. The associated ridge 
will gradually shift southward to near 28N through midweek 
maintaining strong to near-gale winds offshore Colombia and in the
Gulf of Venezuela each night. Winds will pulse up to fresh to 
strong speeds during the evenings and at night in the Gulf of 
Honduras and Windward Passage through the forecast period. 
Otherwise, moderate to fresh trades will prevail elsewhere. The 
Atlantic ridge will shift farther southward later next week, which
may act to increase the trades again across the basin. 

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Three tropical waves are moving westward across the Atlantic between
W Africa and the Lesser Antilles. The National Hurricane Center 
is monitoring two areas with the potential of tropical cyclone 
formation during the coming week. Please refer to the Graphical 
Tropical Weather Outlook on hurricanes.gov for more info.

A ridge dominates the Atlantic forecast waters, centered on a 
1024 mb Bermuda High. A weakening front is analyzed N of 29N 
between 40W and 49W. The ridge is promoting moderate to fresh 
trade winds south of 24N and west of 30W, where seas are 4 to 7 
ft. Winds are locally fresh to strong between Hispaniola and the
southern Bahamas. Moderate to fresh winds are near the tropical 
wave along 41W-42W. Moderate to fresh N to NE winds and 5 to 8 ft 
seas extend from the Canary Islands southwestward to near 18N. 
Elsewhere within the ridge, gentle to moderate winds and moderate 
seas prevail.

For the forecast west of 55W, a ridge associated to high pressure
of 1024 mb will shift southward to along 28N through Tue. Fresh 
trades will prevail N of Hispaniola and in the approach to the 
Windward Passage through the period, pulsing to strong speeds each
night. The Atlantic ridge will drop a bit farther southward later
next week, which may result in stronger easterly winds. Of note, 
a tropical wave currently over west Africa is expected to merge 
with an area of low pressure that is located a few hundred 
nautical miles south of the Cabo Verde Islands in a couple of 
days. Environmental conditions are forecast to be more conducive 
for development by midweek, and a tropical depression could form 
during the latter half of this week while the system moves 
westward to west-northwestward across the central tropical 
Atlantic.

$$
Adams