000
AXNT20 KNHC 172334
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0015 UTC Mon May 18 2026

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 
2300 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A far eastern Atlantic tropical wave is 18W from 11N southward, 
and moving westward around 5 kt. There is some indication that 
this wave may need to be repositioned in the next day or so when 
additional data becomes available. Scattered showers are noted 
from 01N to 06N between 17W and 22W.

A central Atlantic tropical wave is near 54W from 13N southward 
to along the Suriname-French Guiana border, and moving westward 
around 15 kt. Scattered moderate convection is noted over French
Guiana and nearby waters.

A central Caribbean tropical wave is near 78W from near Jamaica 
southward to eastern Panama. Scattered heavy showers and isolated
strong thunderstorms are occurring over eastern Panama.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

A monsoon trough enters the Atlantic near the coastal border of
Guinea-Bissau and Sierra Leone, then runs southwestward to 
04N21W. An ITCZ continues from 04N21W to just east of the Amazon
River Delta. Scattered showers are occurring near the ITCZ from
the Equator to 03N between 23W and 35W.

...GULF OF AMERICA...

A modest surface ridge reaches southwestward from the Florida
Panhandle to the west-central Gulf. This feature is supporting 
mainly gentle winds with 1 to 3 ft seas for the northeastern Gulf.
Gentle to moderate E to SE winds and seas of 2 to 4 ft are present
at the north-central, east-central and southeastern Gulf, 
including the Florida Straits. In the western Gulf, the pressure 
gradient between the ridge and lower pressure over Texas is 
supporting moderate to fresh SE winds and 3 to 6 ft seas. Locally 
strong E winds with 5 to 7 ft seas exist off the northern Yucatan
Peninsula.

For the forecast, the surface ridge will persist through mid-
week. Expect moderate to fresh SE winds over the western Gulf 
early this week between the high pressure and lower pressure over 
Mexico. Also expect fresh to strong wind pulses off the northwest 
Yucatan peninsula during the evenings.

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

Enhanced by an upper-level trough across the western Atlantic to
near Hispaniola, convergent trade winds are triggering scattered
heavy showers and isolated strong thunderstorms near the southern
coast of Cuba and Hispaniola. Refer to the Tropical Waves section
for additional convection in the Caribbean Sea. Tight pressure
gradient will continue to support fresh to strong NE to E winds
and 6 to 9 ft seas at the south-central basin, and in the Gulf of
Honduras. Mainly gentle winds with seas at 3 to 5 ft exist in the
northwestern basin, and near Costa Rica and Panama. Moderate to
fresh ENE to E winds and seas of 5 to 7 ft prevail elsewhere in
the Caribbean Sea. 

For the forecast, the pressure gradient between the 1026 mb Bermuda
high and lower pressure over Colombia will support fresh to 
strong trades across the central basin and the Gulf of Honduras 
through Tue night, with moderate to fresh trades across the 
remainder of the Caribbean Sea. Rough seas can be expected in the
central Caribbean through early Wednesday morning as well. Rough 
seas associated with large E swell will impact waters near the
Lesser Antilles into Tue, then begin to subside. 

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A surface trough extends southwestward from southeast of Bermuda
across 31N61W to near the southeast Bahamas. Coupling with an
upper-level trough near 72W, scattered moderate convection is
occurring north of 22N between 65W and 72W. Refer to the Monsoon
Trough/ITCZ section at the beginning for additional convection in
the Atlantic Basin. 

Moderate ENE to ESE winds and seas of 2 to 4 ft are evident north
of 20N west of 70W, including the Great Bahama Bank. A broad
Atlantic Ridge extending west-southwestward from a 1028 mb Azores
High across 31N35W to near 25N63W is sustaining gentle winds with
4 to 5 ft seas north of 27N between 35W and 70W. Farther south
from 05N to 20N/27N between 35W and 70W/Lesser Antilles, moderate
to fresh NE to E trade winds and seas at 6 to 8 ft dominate. For
the remainder of the Atlantic Basin west of 35W, gentle to
moderate NE to E winds and 5 to 7 ft seas prevail.

For the forecast west of 55W, the aforementioned Atlantic Ridge 
will support fresh trade winds and occasionally rough seas with E 
swell into tonight, mainly east of the Leeward Islands. A weak 
frontal remnant trough extending from 31N58W to the southern 
Bahamas will dissipate later tonight, leaving tranquil marine 
conditions in place through midweek. 

$$

Chan