000
AXNT20 KNHC 081006
TWDAT 

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1215 UTC Sat Aug 8 2026

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 
0930 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Caribbean Gale Warning: The pressure gradient between a 1025 mb  
Bermuda High and the Colombian low will continue to support fresh 
to strong trades in the south-central and portions of the SW basin
through next week. Winds tonight have pulsed to minimal gale-force
offshore of Colombia and inside the Gulf of Venezuela. The
associated ridge N of the region will gradually shift southward 
to along 28N through Tue to maintain strong to near gale-force
winds across the south central Caribbean. Winds will diminish to
below gale-force around sunrise this morning and then increase
again to gale-force tonight. Seas will build into the 12-13 ft
range during the time of the gale-force winds. Please read the 
latest HIGH SEAS FORECAST issued by the National Hurricane Center 
at website
- https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml for more details.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

An Atlantic tropical wave is moving away from the Cabo Verde 
Islands, with axis along 28W from 06N to 19N, moving west at 10 
to 15 kt. Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms are noted 
from 08.5N TO 12.5N between 27W and 31W.

An Atlantic tropical wave is analyzed near 47W, and extends from 
05N to 19N, moving west at 10 to 15 kt. Scattered moderate 
convection is noted from 06N to 10N between 41W and 47W.

A tropical wave is analyzed along 59W-60W, approaching the Lesser
Antilles, extending from 05N to 20N, and moving west at 10 to 15 
kt. Scattered moderate convection is noted from 08N to 11.5N 
between 54W and 60W.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic near 12N16.5W and 
continues westward to near 10N44.5W. The ITCZ extends from 10N48W
to 09.5N58W. Aside from the convection associated with the 
tropical waves, scattered moderate isolated strong convection 
is noted from 06.5N to 12N E of 24W.

...GULF OF AMERICA...

A 1024 mb high is located just NW of Bermuda and extends a western 
Atlantic ridge westward along 33N and across the Carolinas. A 
surface trough has moved westward across Florida, and extends from
the extreme SW Gulf to near Jacksonville, with the ridge drapped
across it over the northeast Gulf. This pattern is supporting 
gentle to moderate E to SE winds and 1-3 ft seas across the basin,
except for moderate NE winds across the eastern Bay of Campeche. 
Widely scattered showers are across the coastal waters of SW
Florida, and dot the waters elsewhere W of 88W.
 
For the forecast, the surface ridge will dominate most of the
Gulf basin through late Tue. This will support gentle to
moderate E to SE winds north of 24N with slight seas. Pulses of
fresh winds will occur north and west of the Yucatan Peninsula
and into the Bay of Campeche each evening and night as a surface
trough migrates from the Yucatan Peninsula westward across the
SW Gulf. 

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

Refer to the section above for details on the Gale Warning in
effect for the waters N of Colombia and the Gulf of Venezuela.

The pressure gradient between a 1024 mb high pressure located NW 
of Bermuda near 33N67W and the Colombian low continues to support
fresh to strong trades over the south-central Caribbean S of 16N
and between 68W and 80W. Seas are 6 to 9 ft across much of this
area except 10 to 13 ft in the gale winds offshore of Colombia. 
Moderate to fresh trades are over the E Caribbean while gentle to 
moderate E winds are observed elsewhere. Seas are moderate with 
these winds. Scattered moderate convection extends from Haiti
northwestward to 80W and offshore of central Cuba.

For the forecast, the pressure gradient between the Atlantic ridge
and the Colombian low will continue to support fresh to strong 
trades in the south-central and portions of the SW basin through 
next week, with gale- force winds occurring early this morning and
again Saturday night offshore of Colombia. The ridge N of the 
region will gradually shift southward to along 28N through Tue and
maintain near gale- force winds offshore Colombia and in the Gulf
of Venezuela each night. Winds will pulse fresh to locally strong
during the evenings and night in the Gulf of Honduras and 
Windward Passage through the forecast period. Otherwise, mainly 
moderate to fresh trades will prevail elsewhere.

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Scattered showers and thunderstorms are active over the Atlantic
waters north of the Bahamas and W of 76W, following a low level 
trough currently moving across the Florida peninsula and into the
eastern Gulf of America. Broad ridging centered on a 1024 mb high
just NW of Bemuda dominates the Atlantic north of 24N and west of
50W, supporting gentle to moderate E to SE winds and 4-6 ft 
W of 50W. A central Atlantic cold front extends southwestward to
near 33N50W and weakens the ridge across the central basin. An
Azores High dominates the basin est of 40W, producing fresh to 
strong NE winds near the Canary Islands, where seas are 6 to 8 ft.
Saharan air and dust covers much of the Atlantic north of 12N and
east of 55W.

For the forecast west of 55W, the surface trough moving across
Florida will shift NW and further inland today. Scattered showers
and thunderstorms occurring E of the trough to 77W will shift 
northwestward behind the trough today, then persist N of 30N 
through Sun. Otherwise, a 1024 mb Bermuda High will shift 
slightly southward to along 28N through Tue. Fresh E winds will 
prevail N of Hispaniola and in the approach to the Windward 
Passage through the period, pulsing to strong speeds each evening 
and night. 

$$
Stripling