000
AXNT20 KNHC 201517
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1815 UTC Mon Apr 20 2026

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 
1500 UTC.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough extends from 12N15W to 02N18W. The ITCZ 
continues from 02N18W to 01S25W to 01S40W to 02S45W. Scattered 
moderate convection is within 120 nm south of the ITCZ between 16W
and 23W. Scattered moderate convection is also from 00N to 01N
between 25W and 30W.

GULF OF AMERICA...

A cold front extends southwestward from Fort Myers, Florida to 
24N90W, where it becomes a stationary front extending westward to 
24N95W then southward to near Veracruz, Mexico. Fresh to strong 
winds are N of the front over the NE Gulf. Gentle to moderate 
winds prevail over much of the remainder of the waters, except 
fresh NE winds west of the Yucatan peninsula. Seas are in the 5-7 
ft behind the front, and 2-4 ft ahead of the front.

For the forecast, fresh to strong N to NE winds and moderate to 
rough seas will follow the cold front through Mon. On Tue, the 
western portion of this boundary will gradually dissipate over the
central and western Gulf, while the eastern portion will resume 
moving southward into Cuba and the Yucatan Channel. Gentle to 
moderate southeasterly winds will return to the Gulf on Thu. 

CARIBBEAN SEA...

The cold front moving across the Gulf and western Atlantic is
displacing and weakening the typical subtropical ridge that
governs the trade wind flow across the Caribbean. As a result, the
only areas of moderate to fresh E winds are likely over the far
northeastern Caribbean, off Cabo Beata on the south coast of
Hispaniola, and off central Colombia. Seas are 5-6 ft in these
areas. Moderate E winds and 3-5 ft seas are ongoing elsewhere east
of 75W. Mostly gentle NE to E winds and 2-4 ft seas are noted
elsewhere west of 75W. No significant shower or thunderstorm
activity is noted at this time. 

For the forecast, the weak Atlantic high pressure will continue N
of the basin and support a weaker than usual pressure gradient 
over much of the Caribbean basin throughout the week. Fresh to 
strong NE winds will develop Tue night and Wed across the Windward
Passage and in the lee of Cuba, associated with a late- season 
cold front moving slowly across Cuba. The front is expected to 
dissipate across eastern Cuba late Wed.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A cold front extends from 31N72W to Stuart, Florida. Fresh to
strong NE winds with 6-9 ft seas are evident north of the front.
A few showers and thunderstorms are active along the front as
well. A few showers and thunderstorms are also active along a
trough ahead of the front extending from 30N70W to the central
Bahamas. A broad ridge dominates the remainder of the discussion
area, anchored by 1031 mb high pressure over the north-cental 
Atlantic near 41N43W. This pattern is supporting gentle to 
moderate winds and seas of 4-7 ft. 

For the forecast west of 55W, fresh to strong N to NE winds and 
rough seas will follow the front as it continues moving 
southeastward, reaching from Bermuda to the Florida Straits by 
late this afternoon, and from 31N60W to central Cuba by Tue 
afternoon. Winds will begin to diminish Tue night as the front 
stalls and dissipates along 22N by late Wed. Weak high pressure 
will settle in between northeast Florida and Bermuda Thu through 
Fri, in the wake of the front. Large N to NE swell will linger 
near the dissipating front Wed into Thu, including waters near the
Windward Passage. 

$$
Christensen