000
AXNT20 KNHC 182030
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0015 UTC Fri Jun 19 2026

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 
2100 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

An eastern Atlantic tropical wave has its axis near 25W, south of
18N to near the Cabo Verde Islands, moving westward at around 
5-10 kt. Any nearby convection is discussed in the ITCZ/MONSOON 
TROUGH section below.

Another Atlantic tropical wave has its axis near 45W, south of 
18N, moving westward at around 10 kt. Any nearby convection is
discussed in the ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH section below.

An eastern Caribbean tropical wave has its axis near 64W, south 
of 18N near the Anegada Passage to eastern Venezuela, moving 
westward at around 10 kt. Any nearby convection is discussed in
the ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH section below.

A western Caribbean tropical wave has its axis near 85W, south of
19N across portions of eastern Honduras and central Nicaragua, 
moving westward at around 10 kt. Any nearby convection is 
discussed in the ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH section below.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic off the coast of Africa
near 14N17W and extends SW to near 06.5N29W. The ITCZ extends 
from 06.5N29W to 06N43W where it becomes ill-defined due to a
tropical wave to the west. Isolated to widely scattered moderate 
and isolated strong convection is noted from 01N to 09N between 
10W and 55W.

...GULF OF AMERICA...

A ridge extends from subtropical high centered in the Atlantic to
across Florida and the Gulf along 26N, with a surface trough 
extending from eastern Mexico, across the SW Gulf. The pressure 
gradient between these features is supporting fresh to strong 
winds across much of the Gulf. Seas are in the 4-7 ft over much of
the Gulf, reaching 8 ft off the coast of Louisiana to the western
Florida Panhandle.

For the forecast, the Atlantic ridge extends across Florida into 
the Gulf region. The pressure gradient between this system and 
lower pressures over Texas and northeastern Mexico will support 
fresh to strong southerly winds over the western and central Gulf,
and moderate to fresh winds over the eastern Gulf through Fri. 
Expect rough seas N of 27N and offshore of the Louisiana coast 
this afternoon to shift eastward with these winds through tonight 
before diminishing. Winds and seas will diminish basin-wide late 
Fri through the weekend as weak high pressure settles over the 
eastern Gulf. 

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

The broad subtropical ridge over the western Atlantic extends
westward along 27N-28N and across central Florida. The pressure 
gradient between the ridge and the Colombian low is supporting 
fresh to strong winds over the central Caribbean, where seas are 
in the 6-8 ft range. Fresh to locally strong winds are over the 
Gulf of Honduras as well as in the eastern Caribbean. Gentle to 
moderate winds, and seas of 4-6 ft, are across the remainder of 
the Caribbean. A large cluster of deep convection is noted south
of 14N between 74W and 82W with locally higher winds and seas
possible there.

For the forecast, the Atlantic ridge will remain in place north 
of the area through early next week, while weakening slightly Fri 
night through Sun, as a frontal system clips the waters off NE 
Florida. The pressure gradient south of the ridge will sustain 
fresh to strong trade winds and moderate to rough seas in the 
central Caribbean through the forecast period, with highest winds 
and seas expected off the coast of Colombia. Pulsing winds at 
fresh to strong speeds and moderate to rough seas are expected in 
the Gulf of Honduras nightly through Mon, pulsing briefly to near 
gale- force tonight and Fri night. Moderate to fresh E to SE winds
are expected elsewhere across the northwestern Caribbean through 
Mon night. Active showers and thunderstorms are expected across SW
portions through Sat as an upper-level trough digs into the area.

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A frontal trough extends from 31N33W to 25N44W. Isolated moderate
convection is in the vicinity of the trough. The rest of the 
discussion waters N of 20N is dominated by high pressure anchored 
by a 1024 mb subtropical high centered near 28N57W. Light to 
gentle winds are in the vicinity of ridging extending from 31N22W
to the high to central Florida. Moderate to locally fresh winds 
dominate the remainder of the discussion waters, except fresh to
strong N-NE winds from 18N to 24N between Africa and 21W. Seas 
are in the 3-6 ft range, except locally to 7 ft south of 22N.

For the forecast west of 55W, the Atlantic ridge will remain in 
place through early next week, while weakening slightly Fri night 
through Sun, as a frontal system clips the waters offshore of NE 
Florida. The front is forecast to move slowly offshore on Sat, and
stall offshore NE Florida by Sun. Fresh to locally strong SW 
winds are expected N of 30N and ahead of the front tonight through
Fri. Moderate to fresh trade winds are expected south of 22N, 
around the southern periphery of the ridge, through Sun. These 
winds will likely increase to strong speeds Sun night through Mon 
night.

$$
Lewitsky