000
AXNT20 KNHC 070938
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1215 UTC Sun Jun 7 2026

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 
0930 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A tropical wave is along 23W, south of 12N, moving westward at 
around 15 kt. A cluster of moderate to isolated strong convection
is observed where the wave meets the monsoon trough, from 04N to 
06N between 20W and 25W.

A tropical wave is along 37W, south of 16N, moving westward at 
15 to 20 kt. A few showers are noted on either side of the wave
axis. 

A tropical wave is over the eastern Caribbean along 63W, south of
17N, moving westward at around 20 kt. Convection is limited. Fresh
to locally strong E to SE winds are between the wave axis and the
Lesser Antilles based on recent scatterometer data.

A second tropical wave is in the eastern Caribbean Sea near 70W,
south of 17N, moving westward at around 15 kt. The wave is 
enhancing convection over portions of western Venezuela, including
the Lake Maracaibo area.

A tropical wave is in the western Caribbean Sea along 82W, south 
of 19N to across western Panama and into the eastern Pacific 
Ocean, slowly moving around 5 kt. Scattered to numerous showers 
and thunderstorms are noted over the Windward Passage, between 
Haiti and Jamaica, and over the central Caribbean from 11N to 17N
between 73W and 82W. 

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic through the coast of W
Africa near 12N16W, and continues southwestward to 04N28W. The 
ITCZ extends from 04N28W to the coast of Brazil near 02N51W. 
Other than the convection associated with two tropical waves, a
large area of moderate to isolated strong convection is observed 
near the coast of W Africa, covering the waters from 04N to 10N 
between 09W and 17W. This convective activity is affecting the 
coastal waters of Liberia, Sierra Leone and Guinea.

...GULF OF AMERICA...

High pressure located over the western Atlantic just W of Bemuda 
extends a ridge across the SE of United States, including Florida,
into the Gulf region. This system is supporting gentle to moderate
SE to S winds across most of the basin, with the exception of
fresh to strong E to SE winds N of the Yucatan Peninsula to about
24N between 87W and 91W. Seas are slight to moderate within these
wind speeds, with maximum seas to 6 ft occurring within the area
of the strongest winds N of the Yucatan Peninsula. A cluster of 
moderate to strong convection is over the central Bay of Campeche.
Scattered moderate convection is noted along the coast of Mexico 
and adjacent waters from Veracruz, Mexico to Brownsville, Texas.

For the forecast, a ridge will continue to dominate the Gulf region
supporting gentle to moderate E to SE winds over the eastern Gulf
and moderate to fresh SE to S winds over the western Gulf through
Mon. Winds will be easterly at mostly fresh speeds across most of
the western and central Gulf S of 26N through midweek. The exception
will be off the Yucatan Peninsula, where a diurnal trough will support
moderate winds to pulse to fresh, occasionally strong, during the
evenings through Wed. Slight to moderate seas will prevail with 
these winds. 

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

Three tropical waves are moving westward across the Caribbean Sea.
Please see the Tropical Waves section above for more details, 
including any associated significant convection. 

Otherwise, high pressure north of the area centered just W of 
Bermuda, combined with lower pressures across South America
supports moderate to locally fresh E to SE trade winds and 
moderate seas across the majority of the basin, with the exception
of the SW Caribbean where light to gentle winds are noted, and in
the Gulf of Honduras where a recent scatterometer pass indicates
fresh to locally strong E winds. An upper level trough over the
central Caribbean is helping to induce scattered to numerous
showers and thunderstorms over the Windward Passage, between 
Haiti and Jamaica, and over the central Caribbean from 11N to 17N
between 73W and 82W. Elsewhere, patches of low level clouds, 
embedded in the trade wind flow, are noted producing isolated to 
scattered passing showers.

For the forecast, moderate to fresh E to SE trade winds and moderate
seas will persist across the Caribbean today as the Atlantic ridge
north of the area weakens and shifts eastward. Winds will begin 
to increase again over the central Caribbean late tonight into 
Mon, and over the NW part of the basin Mon night into Tue as the 
pressure gradient tightens between the Atlantic ridge and a broad 
area of low pressure located over the eastern Pacific offshore of 
Central America. Looking ahead, fresh to strong SE winds may persist
in the NW Caribbean Wed through Thu.

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Two tropical waves are moving westward between the western coast 
of Africa and the Lesser Antilles. Please refer to the Tropical 
Waves section for more details including any related significant 
convection.

A surface trough, remnants of an old frontal boundary, extends from
near 31N58W to the central Bahamas into eastern Cuba. Scattered 
showers, with embedded thunderstorms, are along and ahead of this
trough, affecting the SE Bahamas, the Turks and Caicos Islands, 
the lee of eastern Cuba, and the Cayman Islands. A 1020 mb high 
pressure located just W of Bermuda follows this frontal trough. 
The remainder of the Atlantic forecast area is dominated by a 
broad subtropical ridge, anchored by a 1029 mb high pressure 
situated SW of the Azores near 34N32W. Under the influence of this
system, a gentle to moderate E to SE flow is seen N of 20N E of 
front to about 45W. Fresh to strong NE winds and rough seas are 
found north of 17N and east of 40W, including the Canary Islands. 
The strongest winds are between the islands. Moderate to fresh 
trades and moderate seas are elsewhere S of 20N between the coast 
of Africa and the Lesser Antilles.

For the forecast west of 55W, the surface trough will remain nearly
stationary through Mon night. A cold front will move across the 
waters N of 27N Tue through Wed, and gradually dissipate by Thu. 
High pressure will follow the front, and will be centered near 
Bermuda by Wed, then move eastward by Thu. This weather pattern 
will generally support gentle to moderate winds and moderate seas 
through midweek, except for moderate to fresh trades S of 22N 
between Hispaniola and Cuba starting late Wed. 

$$
GR