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Atlantic Tropical Weather Discussion



301 
AXNT20 KNHC 211011
TWDAT 

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
610 AM EDT Sun Apr 21 2019

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 
1115 UTC.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic waters off the coast of
Sierra Leone near 08N13W to 05N16W. The ITCZ continues from 
05N16W to 01N25W to the coast of Brazil near 03S40W. Scattered
moderate to isolated strong convection is noted within about 60 nm
N of the ITCZ axis between 18W and 20W. Similar convection is also
seen from 1.5N to 3N between 24W and 32W, and near the western end
on the ITCZ from 3S to 1N between 36W and 39W. 

GULF OF MEXICO...

High pressure of 1020 mb located near 28N92W dominates the Gulf 
region. Cold air stratocumulus clouds are noted over the eastern 
Gulf where the most recent scatterometer pass indicates the 
presence of fresh W to NW winds, particularly N of 26N E of 87W. 
Light to gentle winds are seen near the high pressure while
moderate to locally fresh return flow is observed W of 95W. The
high pressure will remain across the Gulf waters through midweek 
before retreating eastward. This will enable a cold front to move 
into the NW Gulf on Thu. 

A surface trough will develop near the NW Yucatan Peninsula during
the evening hours and drift westward across the SW Gulf where it 
will eventually dissipate during the morning hours. Fresh to 
locally strong N to NE winds will accompany this trough each night
into the early morning hours.

CARIBBEAN SEA... 

A stationary front extends from eastern Cuba to near Cabo Gracias
a Dios, Nicaragua. Mainly low clouds with some shower activity 
are associated with the frontal boundary, forecast to dissipate 
today. Patches of low level moisture embedded in the trade winds 
flow are noted elsewhere across the basin. Mainly moderate 
northerly winds follows the front. Moderate to fresh trade winds 
are noted per scatterometer data over the eastern and the south-
central Caribbean, and also across the waters E of the Lesser 
Antilles. Moderate to fresh trade winds will prevail across the 
Caribbean and the Tropical North Atlantic, with the exception of 
fresh to strong winds near the coast of Colombia. Trades will 
slowly diminish through Wednesday night, then increasing back 
slightly towards the end of next week.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A cold front enters the forecast area near 31N72W, then continues
SW across the central Bahamas into eastern Cuba. A band of showers
with scattered showers and thunderstorms is related to the front.
Part of this convective activity is currently affecting the 
central and SE Bahamas. A surface trough is analyzed W of the 
front, and runs from 30N77W to near 25N80W. Some cloudiness with 
isolated showers is noted near the trough axis. Fresh to locally
strong southerly winds are ahead of the front, forecast to reach 
from near 31N70W to the SE Bahamas today where it will stall and 
gradually dissipate. The remnants of the front will linger along 
70W through much of the week. 

Farther east, another cold front enters the forecast waters near 
31N36W and stretches southwest to near 22N41W where it begins to
dissipate along 21N45W to 21N50W to 22N58W. This front is associated
with a 1017 mb low pressure system that has just moved into the
forecast area, and now is located near 30N42W. This system is
generating scattered showers and isolated and thunderstorms. 
In addition, this low is producing gale force winds just N of the
forecast region, and fresh to strong northerly winds over the 
forecast waters N of 27N between 42W and 48W based on recent 
scatterometer data. An altimeter pass indicates sea heights of up 
to 14 ft near the low center. The low pressure is forecast to meander
near 26N50W over the next 48-72 hours. The associated cold front 
will dissipate over the next 24 hours. The pressure gradient 
between the low and high pressure to the north will keep an area 
of fresh to strong winds roughly N of 26N between 40W and 60W 
today and Mon. A ridge dominates the remainder of the Atlantic 
Ocean.

For additional information please visit 
http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine

$$
GR