256 
AXNT20 KNHC 082245
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0015 UTC Thu Jul 9 2026

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 
2230 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Caribbean Sea Gale Warning: The pressure gradient between the central
Atlantic high pressure and lower pressures over northern South 
America will support strong to gale-force NE winds over the south
central Caribbean tonight. These conditions will resume on Thu 
night and continue pulsing each night through the weekend. Seas 
are expected to peak around 14 ft on Sat. 

Please refer to the latest NWS High Seas Forecast at website: 
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFEP2.shtml for more details.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A far eastern Atlantic tropical wave has its axis along 31W from 
03N to 15N, moving westward at about 15 kt. Scattered showers are
noted along the wave axis.

A central Atlantic tropical wave has its axis along 58W south of 
17N, moving westward at 15 to 20 kt. Scattered showers are noted 
along the wave axis.

An eastern Caribbean tropical wave is along 68W south of 18N. It 
is moving westward at 15 kt. Scattered moderate convection is
noted in the southern half of the basin. 

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic ocean near 21N17W and 
continues southwestward to 07N35W, where it transitions to the 
ITCZ to 02N50W. Scattered moderate convection is depicted from 02N
to 08N between 36W and 42W. Similar convection is well south of 
the trough from 06N to 11N between the coast of Africa and 21W.

...GULF OF AMERICA...

Weak high pressure is extending westward across the basin from 
the Atlantic. The associated pressure gradient is allowing for 
light to gentle variable winds north of 24N and for gentle to 
moderate easterly winds south of 24N, except for mostly moderate 
winds in the Bay of Campeche. Seas are of slight state, except for
moderate state seas in the Bay of Campeche. Meanwhile, a mid to
upper-level low over the western Bay of Campeche is acting on a 
very unstable and moisture-laden atmosphere. This has lead to the 
development of scattered showers and thunderstorms over much of 
the west-central and southwestern portions of the basin, south of
about 26N and west of 92W. Scattered showers and thunderstorms 
are also present north of 26N between 86W and 91W. 

For the forecast, the weak high pressure extending westward
across the basin from the Atlantic will change little through
Thu night, then shift northward to near the northern Gulf coast
Fri through Sat night. The weather pattern will support gentle
to moderate east to southeast winds across the Gulf south of
about 26N, and light to gentle southeast to south winds north of
about 26N. The exception will be occasional fresh to strong 
northeast to east winds offshore the Yucatan peninsula at night. 
The mid to upper-level low along with a moist and unstable 
airmass will generate scattered to numerous showers and 
thunderstorms over the SW Gulf, with scattered showers and 
isolated thunderstorms elsewhere across the basin south of about 
28N through Thu. 

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

Please refer to the Special Features section above for details on
gale conditions offshore Colombia and the Gulf of Venezuela.

The pressure gradient between central Atlantic high pressure and 
lower pressures over northern South America is bringing fresh to 
near gale trades over the central Caribbean. Seas with these winds 
are 8 to 11 ft. Moderate to fresh east winds and seas of 4 to 5 
ft are in the Gulf of Honduras while fresh to strong northeast 
winds are funneling into the Windward Passage. Seas there are also
4 to 6 ft. Elsewhere, fresh trades are over the basin, except for
gentle to moderate winds over the NW Caribbean. Seas are 6 to 8 
ft south of 18N and east of 83W and 3 to 5 ft elsewhere. Upper 
divergence is helping to sustain scattered showers and isolated 
thunderstorms over the Gulf of Honduras. 

For the forecast, the pressure gradient between central Atlantic high
pressure and lower pressures over northern South America will
support fresh to near gale trades over the central Caribbean for
the next several days. Winds will pulse to gale-force tonight, Fri
night, and Sat night off Colombia. Gale- force winds are also 
possible in the Gulf of Venezuela Fri night and Sat night. Trades
over the Gulf of Honduras will pulse to fresh to strong speeds in
the late afternoons and evenings through early next week. A fast-
moving tropical wave should reach the Lesser Antilles this 
evening, bringing fresh to strong trades over the eastern 
Caribbean Thu through Fri night. Scattered showers and isolated 
thunderstorms may accompany this wave. 

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

An expansive subtropical ridge axis is roughly along 27N, anchored 
by a 1025 mb high center at 28N46W. The pressure gradient between
this ridge and lower pressures in the deep tropics is producing 
fresh to strong trades south of 24N. Seas of 5 to 7 ft are with 
these trades. North of 24N, light to gentle winds prevail along 
with seas 3 to 5 ft. Elsewhere, moderate or weaker winds and seas 
of about 4 to 6 ft remain. An upper level trough north of the 
Hispaniola supporting scattered showers and thunderstorms south 
of 23N between 63W and 74W. 

For the forecast west of 55W, high pressure ridging near 27N will
change little through Thu, then shift slightly north afterward. 
The weather pattern will support moderate to fresh trades south of
23N, and light to gentle winds north of 23N, except north of 29N 
where moderate to fresh south to southwest winds will prevail. 
Strong winds along with moderate to rough seas are expected at 
night north of Hispaniola, including the approaches to the 
Windward Passage through early next week.

$$
ERA