000
AXNT20 KNHC 072207
TWDAT 

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0015 UTC Wed Jul 8 2026

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 
2200 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Caribbean Sea Gale Warning: The pressure gradient between the 
Bermuda- Azores High north of the area along with lower pressure 
over N South America will produce fresh to near gale trades over 
the central Caribbean for the next several days. Peak winds should
reach gales just north of Colombia tonight before slightly 
diminishing tomorrow. Expect rough to locally rough seas with the
peak winds. Please refer to the latest NWS High Seas Forecast at
website: https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFEP2.shtml for more
details.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A tropical wave is just southwest of the Cabo Verde Islands. Its 
axis is along 26.5W south of 17N. It is moving westward at 15 to 
20 kt. Any nearby convection is described in the monsoon 
trough/ITCZ section below.

A well defined tropical wave is along 47W south of 17N, moving 
westward at around 15 kt. Any nearby convection is described in 
the monsoon trough/ITCZ section below.

Another tropical wave is analyzed near 62W entering the far
eastern Caribbean Sea, and extends southward into far eastern
Venezuela. It is moving westward at 20 to 25 kt. Any nearby 
convection is described in the monsoon trough/ITCZ section below.

The tropical wave previously located along 85W is relocated 
farther E along 82W based on tropical wave diagnostic and surface
observations. Any nearby convection is described in the monsoon 
trough/ITCZ section below.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough axis enters the Atlantic through the coast of
Africa near 14N16W and continues southwestward to 09N26W. The 
ITCZ extends from 08N28W to 09N45W to 09N59W. Scattered moderate
isolated strong convection is noted from 06N to 11N between 21W
and 34W. Scattered moderate convection is noted from 06N to 09N 
between 36W and 42W, and also from 08N to 13N between 42W and 
54W.

...GULF OF AMERICA...

A weak ridge continues the dominate the Gulf region producing a
gentle to moderate wind flow, except moderate to fresh in the
central Bay of Campeche due to a weak surface trough analyzed from
along 94W. Slight to moderate seas are noted across the basin,
highest in the central Bay of Campeche. An upper-level low over 
the western Gulf is enhancing the development of showers and 
thunderstorms over parts of the basin, more concentrated over the 
Bay of Campeche and near the northern Yucatan Peninsula. 

For the forecast, the diurnal trough moving westward from the 
Yucatan peninsula will cause fresh NE to E winds offshore of the 
peninsula nightly through the weekend. An upper-level low will 
cause scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms over the Gulf 
for the next couple of days. Elsewhere, winds and seas should be 
quiescent. 

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

Please refer to the Special Features section above for details on
a Gale Warning.

A tight pressure gradient is present over the central Caribbean
due to the Bermuda-Azores high north of the area and lower
pressure over northern South America resulting in fresh to near
gale-force winds there. Rough seas dominate this area. Moderate to
fresh trades prevail elsewhere along with moderate seas, except 
gentle to moderate in the lee of Cuba. Scattered showers and 
thunderstorms are occurring over portions of the western 
Caribbean, particularly W of 85W, including in the vicinity of the
Gulf of Honduras. Patches of low level moisture, embedded in the 
trade wind flow, are moving westward across the area producing 
isolated to scattered passing showers.

For the forecast, the pressure gradient between the Bermuda-
Azores High north of the area along with lower pressure over N 
South America will produce fresh to near gale trades over the 
central Caribbean for the next several days. Peak winds should 
reach gales just north of Colombia tonight before slightly 
diminishing tomorrow. Additionally, trades over the Gulf of 
Honduras will pulse to fresh to strong late afternoons and 
evenings through the weekend. A vigorous tropical wave should 
reach the Lesser Antilles Wed evening, bringing fresh to strong 
trades over the E Caribbean on Thu and Fri. 

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Three tropical waves are moving westward between W Africa and the
Lesser Antilles. Please, see the Tropical Waves section for more
details. The Saharan Air Layer (SAL) from CIMSS and the Geocolor
satellite imagery show abundant African dust over this area into 
the eastern Caribbean. 

As it is normal for this time of the year, the Bermuda-Azores 
High dominates the Atlantic forecast waters. Moderate to fresh 
winds are observed along the southern periphery of its associated 
ridge, with the exception of fresh to strong winds just north of 
Hispaniola and Puerto Rico. Light to gentle winds are near the 
ridge axis, mainly N of 25N. Seas are generally moderate across
the basin, except slight to moderate from 25N to 29N under the
ridge and corresponding lighter winds. An exception is fresh to
strong N-NE winds from offshore northern Africa near the Canary
and Madeira Islands to the Cabo Verde Islands and just WNW of
there. An upper-level low spinning between Hispaniola and the 
southeastern Bahamas is generating some shower activity.

For the forecast west of 55W, ridging associated with the 
Bermuda- Azores High will remain farther south than usual - near 
27N. Waters north of 29N will have moderate to fresh SW to W winds
beginning tomorrow night for the next several days. Additionally,
fresh to strong trades will continue just north of Hispaniola and
over the approaches to the Windward Passage through the weekend. 

$$
Lewitsky