017 
AXNT20 KNHC 061034
TWDAT 

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1215 UTC Thu Aug 6 2026

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 
1020 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Caribbean Gale Warning: The Bermuda High will shift southward to
the SW N Atlantic waters over the weekend, which will tighten the
pressure gradient in the central and portions of the SW Caribbean,
thus resulting in the acceleration of winds from fresh to strong
to fresh to near gale force off Colombia and in the Gulf of
Venezuela. Regional effects will further enhance the winds to
gale force offshore Colombia at night Fri and Sat, thus building 
seas from rough to very rough. Please read the latest HIGH
SEAS FORECAST issued by the National Hurricane Center at website
- https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml for more details.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A tropical wave is over the E Atlantic with axis near 33W,
extending from 06N to 16N, and moving west at around 15-20 kt. 
Scattered moderate convection is from 06N to 13N between 31W and
39W.

A tropical wave is over the central Atlantic with axis near 48W,
extending from 07N to 18N, and moving west at 15-20 kt. No 
significant convection is associated with this wave at this time. 

A tropical wave is in the far W Caribbean with axis near 87W,
extending southward from 19N into the E Pacific waters, and 
moving west at 10-15 kt. No significant convection is associated
with this wave at this time. 

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic near 20N16W and continues 
southwestward to 11N30W to 10N40W. The ITCZ extends from 10N40W 
to 09N45W, then resumes W of a tropical wave from 08N49W to 09N60W.
Aside from the convection associated with two tropical waves in
the section above, numerous moderate isolated strong convection is
offshore W Africa associated with the next tropical wave forecast
to emerge off the coast later this morning. 

...GULF OF AMERICA...

A 1025 mb high located just NW of Bermuda extends a ridge across
northern Florida SW into the Gulf, except for the Bay of Campeche
where a surface trough is generating scattered showers and
supporting moderate to fresh E winds along with moderate seas.
Elsewhere, return flow is gentle to moderate and seas slight.  
 
For the forecast, surface ridging from the Bermuda High will 
dominate across most of the Gulf through late Mon, supporting 
gentle to moderate E to SE winds N of 22N along with slight seas. 
Pulses of fresh winds will occur north and west of the Yucatan 
Peninsula and into the Bay of Campeche each night as a surface 
trough migrates from the Yucatan Peninsula to the SW Gulf. Slight 
to moderate seas are forecast for this portion of the basin 
through Mon night. 

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

The pressure gradient between a 1025 mb high located just NW of
Bermuda and relatively lower pressure in northern South America
continue to support fresh to strong trades over the central basin
along with moderate to rough seas. Moderate to fresh trades are
elsewhere over the E Caribbean, the Gulf of Honduras and in the
lee side of Cuba. Seas are slight to moderate over the NW basin
and moderate over the E Caribbean. In terms of shower activity, a
surface trough starting to move across the Turks and Caicos is
supporting scattered showers and tstms in the Windward Passage
while the E extension of the E Pacific monsoon trough is
supporting similar convection offshore Costa Rica, Nicaragua and
Panama. 

For the forecast, the pressure gradient between the Bermuda High 
and relatively lower pressure in northern South America will 
continue to support fresh to strong trades in the south-central 
and portions of the SW basin through Mon night. Over the weekend, 
the ridge N of the region will shift southward, acting to increase
the pressure gradient and accelerating the winds offshore 
Colombia and in the Gulf of Venezuela to near gale-force speed and
to gale-force speed at night. Rough seas will prevail there, 
building to very rough at times this weekend with the increase in 
wind speed. Fresh winds will pulse in the Gulf of Honduras and 
Windward Passage through the forecast period, except over the 
weekend when winds are likely to pulse to strong speed. Otherwise,
mainly moderate to fresh easterlies will prevail elsewhere.

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Surface ridging from the Azores-Bermuda Highs dominate the
subtropical Atlantic waters, which is supporting gentle to
moderate NE to E winds between 23W and 60W. Over the far NE 
Atlantic, strong N-NE winds and moderate to rough seas are evident
off Morocco and in the passages of the Canary Islands while a
surface trough moving across the Turks and Caicos is supporting
fresh to strong winds and scattered heavy showers over the Bahamas
offshores.

For the forecast west of 55W, an upper-level low NE of Freeport 
will continue to support scattered showers and thunderstorms 
offshore E Florida and in the Great Bahama Bank through early this
evening. However, a westward moving surface trough over the 
central and southern Bahamas offshores, will resume the shower 
activity across the Florida seaboard and offshores Fri morning 
before shifting west of the area Fri night into early Sat. Aside 
from the shower activity, the surface trough will bring fresh to 
locally strong winds and rough seas across the Bahamas offshores 
through tonight. Fresh E winds will prevail N of Hispaniola and in
the approaches of the Windward Passage through the period, 
reaching strong speeds Sun night into Mon as the Bermuda High 
shifts southward. 

$$
Ramos