Atlantic Tropical Weather Discussion (Text)

AXNT20 KNHC 241804

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
103 PM EST Sat Feb 24 2018

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 
1745 UTC. 


A system of low pressure over the NE Atlc will support a cold 
front forecast to extend from 31N35W to 28N48W by early Monday
morning. A strong pressure gradient between this area of low 
pressure and surface ridging west of it will lead to the 
development of gale-force winds east of 41W. Gale conditions are 
forecast to prevail through Monday. For more details, refer to 
the NHC High Seas Forecast under AWIPS/WMO Headers 


The monsoon trough extends along 03N0W to 02N14W to 01N29W. The 
ITCZ continues from that point to 02N40W to the coast of Brazil
near 01N50W. Numerous strong convection is N of the Equator
between 05E-12W. Scattered moderate convection is within 90 nm
either side of the monsoon trough between 12W-30W and within 120
nm N of the ITCZ W of 38W.



Fair weather prevails across the basin due to very dry 
conditions at the lower and middle levels as indicated by GOES-
16 water vapor imagery. This is supporting mainly clear skies 
basin-wide. CIRA microwave imagery at the lower levels show 
patches of shallow moisture advecting to the NW Gulf, which is 
supporting dense fog N of 26N W of 89W. A broad area of high 
pressure over the SW N Atlc extending a ridge SW across Florida 
and the eastern Gulf continue to support moderate to fresh SE 
flow across the basin, being the strongest winds W of 90W. No 
significant changes are expected through Sunday. On early Monday 
morning, a cold front is forecast to move over the northwestern 
waters from Louisiana to Brownsville, Texas to inland NE Mexico. 
By Monday afternoon, the front is forecast to extend from the 
Florida Panhandle to 27N94W to inland NE Mexico and then it will 
stall before it lifts northward along the Gulf coast through Tue 
night. Scattered to isolated showers will accompany this 


Water vapor imagery from GOES-16 show deep layer dry air across 
the basin, which is supporting overall fair weather conditions.
However, isolated to scattered showers are possible during the 
afternoon hours in the Greater Antilles as remnant shallow 
moisture associated with a former front advects from the north 
or SW N Atlc waters. An elongated upper level low centered NE of 
Hispaniola will support this convection and currently supports 
passing showers across Jamaica and southern adjacent waters. The 
other area where scattered to isolated showers are being 
reported is the SE Caribbean. Tropical Atlc moisture along with 
middle level diffluence support the convection in this section. 
In terms of winds, latest scatterometer data depict fresh trades 
across the central and eastern basin, with locally strong winds 
within 90 nm of the coast of Colombia increasing to near gale-
force at night. Seas are highest near the coast of Colombia, up 
to 12 ft.
Moderate to fresh trades are in the NW Caribbean. Looking ahead, 
winds and seas are expected to gradually lessen by Sunday 
morning as the high pressure system north of the area weakens. 


Gale-force winds are forecast to develop over NE Atlc waters by 
early Monday morning. See the Special Features section above for 
further details. In the SW N Atlc, a broad ridge anchored by a 
1028 mb high near 31N69W continue to support fresh to locally 
strong NE to E winds in the approaches of the Windward Passage 
and the eastern Great Bahama Bank. A low pressure system over 
the NE Atlantic continue to support a cold front that enters the 
area of discussion from 30N27W SW to 25N40W where it starts to 
weaken. Otherwise, a 1007 mb low and associated trough SW of the 
Canary Islands continue to weaken. Little change is expected 
over the remainder of the basin during the next day or two as 
the high pressure system remains stationary and while it weakens.

For additional information please visit 


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Page last modified: Saturday, 24-Feb-2018 18:04:52 UTC