000
AXNT20 KNHC 162318
TWDAT 

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0015 UTC Sat May 17 2025

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2300 UTC.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... 

The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic Ocean through the coast 
of Guinea-Bissau near 12N16W, then continues southwestward to 
near 07N20W. The ITCZ extends from 07N20W to 04N30W to 00N50W. 
Clusters of moderate to strong convection are noted over parts of
Guinea, Sierra Leone and Liberia. Scattered moderate convection 
is observed from the Equator to 05N between 30W and 50W, and from
06N to 10N between 50W and 55W. 

...GULF OF AMERICA...

Smoke from agricultural fires over SE Mexico is affecting the
western Gulf. The smoke mixes with haze to create a smoky atmosphere.
Durante this time of the year, dense smoke can be seen over the 
NW Caribbean, including the Gulf of Honduras, and in the Gulf of 
America reducing visibility for mariners. Otherwise, a ridge 
remains in control of the weather pattern across the Gulf waters 
supporting moderate to fresh SE winds and seas of 4 to 6 over the
western half of the basin. Gentle to moderate SE winds and seas 
of 2 to 4 ft are noted E of 90W. Lighter winds and lower seas 
are observed across the coastal waters of W Florida. Dry sinking
air aloft is suppressing any deep convection from developing 
over the basin.

For the forecast, the pressure gradient between high pressure 
over the eastern Gulf and relatively lower pressure in Texas and 
in eastern Mexico will maintain moderate to fresh SE winds and 
moderate seas across the western Gulf through early Tue evening. 
Pulsing fresh to locally strong E winds are likely each afternoon
and evening, north of the Yucatan Peninsula as a trough develops
daily and drifts westward. Smoke from agricultural fires in 
southeastern Mexico is leading to hazy conditions over the western
Gulf zones.

...CARIBBEAN SEA... 

The pressure gradient between high pressure of 1027 mb located 
over the central Atlantic near 32N47W and relatively lower 
pressures in the Caribbean and northern South America is 
maintaining moderate to fresh trades across the east and central 
Caribbean, including the Gulf of Honduras. Gentle to moderate 
winds prevail elsewhere. Seas are 4 to 6 ft across the east and
central Caribbean, 3 to 5 ft in the Gulf Honduras, and 1 to 3 ft
elsewhere, including in the lee of Cuba and the Windward Passage.

An upper-level trough extends from the Atlantic across Hispaniola
into the central and SW Caribbean. A diffluent pattern aloft, 
ahead of the trough is helping to induce convection over 
Hispaniola, Puerto Rico and the US/UK Virgin Islands. The upper-
level trough will move eastward during the weekend. A cut-off low
is forecast to develop along the trough axis N of Puerto Rico on
Sat. This will continue to enhance the developing of showers and
thunderstorms over the NE Caribbean over the next couple of days.

For the forecast, fresh to locally strong E to SE winds will 
pulse in the Gulf of Honduras late in the afternoons and at night
through next week. Moderate to fresh trades along with moderate 
seas over the south-central part of the basin will continue 
through tonight. Similar conditions are expected in the lee of 
Cuba and near the Windward Passage on tonight and Sat night. 
Moderate to fresh trades and rough seas will persist over the 
Atlantic waters near and east of the Lesser Antilles through Sun 
night. Looking ahead, increasing trades along with building seas 
are expected across the eastern part of the basin beginning Sun 
night. These conditions are forecast to shift westward across the
central part of the region and to the southwestern Caribbean 
around the middle of next week. 

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

The aforementioned upper-level trough is also helping to induce 
an area of showers, with embedded thunderstorms, roughly between 
60W and 68W. A surface trough is analyzed in this area and runs 
from 27N65W to 20N68W. Farther E, another surface trough/former 
cold front extends from 31N23 to 25N35W to 25N50W. A narrow band
of mainly low clouds, with possible showers, is associated with 
this system. Gentle to moderate NE winds are in the wake of the 
trough, with seas of 5 to 7 ft. High pressure of 1027 mb located 
over the central Atlantic near 32N47W dominates the remainder of 
the Atlantic forecast waters. Its associated ridge extends westward
toward the Bahamas and Florida. An area of fresh to locally strong
trades are noted S of 22N between 40W and 60W due to the pressure
gradient between the high pressure to the N and lower pressures 
in the vicinity of the ITCZ. Seas are 6 to 9 ft within these 
winds. An area of moderate to fresh N to NE winds is near the 
coasts of Mauritania and Western Sahara, where seas are in the 4
to 6 ft range. Elsewhere, gentle to moderate winds and moderate 
seas prevail. 

An early surge of Saharan dust is noted across the tropical
Atlantic reaching the Lesser Antilles. The Saharan Air Layer
(SAL) activity usually ramps up in mid-June, peaks from late 
June to mid-August, and begins to subside after mid-August. 

For the forecast west of 55W, broad high pressure over the central
Atlantic extending westward to across Florida will change little
through early next week controlling the wind flow pattern over 
the region. A weakening cold front will stall just N of 31N and W
of 70W late in the weekend. In the long term, fresh southerly 
winds are expected to develop over the far western waters starting
late Tue in advance of a cold front that will be moving across 
the southeastern U.S. These winds may become fresh to strong, 
south to southwest in direction, during the middle of next week. 
Moderate to fresh NE to E winds will pulse north of Hispaniola 
and in the Windward Passage each night into next week.

$$ 
GR