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Atlantic Tropical Weather Discussion



000
AXNT20 KNHC 221154
TWDAT 

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
705 AM EST Wed Jan 22 2020

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 
1140 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

...ATLANTIC OCEAN GALE WARNING...

A 1012 mb low pressure center is near 27N75W, in the western 
Atlantic Ocean. The forecast is for the low pressure center to 
deepen during the next few days, to 1002 mb at 24 hours, and to 
1001 mb in 48 hours. The surface pressure gradient will be 
tightening. Gale-force winds are present now, from 28N to 31N 
between 72W and 80W. The sea heights are ranging from 13 feet to 
18 feet. The 24-hour forecast consists of the low pressure 
center having moved eastward by about 600 nm, gale-force winds , 
and sea heights ranging from 13 feet to 18 feet, from 30N to 31N 
between 60W and 73W. Please read the latest HIGH SEAS FORECAST: 
MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC, the latest OFFSHORE FORECAST: 
MIAOFFNT3/FZNT23 KNHC, or go to the website 
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml, the NWS National 
Hurricane Center, for more details.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... 

The monsoon trough passes through the Prime Meridian along 04N, 
and it continues to 03N19W. The ITCZ continues from 03N19W to 
01N32W. Precipitation: numerous strong from 06N to 08N between 
Africa and 16W. Widely scattered moderate to isolated strong is 
elsewhere from 07N southward between 08W and 20W. Rainshowers 
are possible in the remainder of the area to the E and SE of the 
line that runs from 04N51W to 10N34W to 10N at the coast of 
Africa. 

GULF OF MEXICO...

A surface ridge passes through Louisiana, into the SW corner of 
the Gulf of Mexico. 

High pressure, building into the Gulf of Mexico, will allow the 
wind speeds to decrease from strong to fresh in the eastern Gulf 
today. Strong S and SE winds will develop in the NW Gulf of 
Mexico, as the high pressure slides eastward tonight. These 
winds will persist into Thursday, in advance of a cold front 
that will move off the Texas coast on Thursday night. The front 
will stretch from the Big Bend of Florida into the SW Gulf of 
Mexico, by Friday. The front will weaken and move SE of the Gulf 
of Mexico by Saturday night. 

CARIBBEAN SEA...

A cold front passes through the Atlantic Ocean, across SE Cuba, 
to the NW shores of Jamaica, to northern Nicaragua. 
Precipitation: isolated moderate within 120 nm to the E/SE of
the cold front.

24-hour rainfall totals that are listed for the period that 
ended at 22/0000 UTC...according to the PAN AMERICAN TEMPERATURE 
AND PRECIPITATION TABLES...MIATPTPAN/SXCA01 KNHC...are 0.07 in 
Guadeloupe. 

Long-period N swell, producing high seas to the E of the 
Windward Islands, will diminish today. A cold front, that 
stretches from eastern Cuba to NE Nicaragua early this morning, 
will be along a line from Hispaniola to Panama by this evening.
The front will stall from Puerto Rico to Colombia on Thursday 
evening, and weaken and dissipate on Friday. Strong N winds and 
high seas are expected to the west of the front through tonight. 
More benign conditions will prevail as a weak pressure gradient 
prevails in the area during the upcoming weekend.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A cold front passes through 32N58W, to 30N63W. The front is 
stationary from 30N63W to a triple point that is near 28N72W.
A 1012 mb low pressure center is near 27N75W. An occluded front 
extends from the low pressure center to 28N72W. A cold front 
continues from the triple point, across the central Bahamas and 
SE Cuba, to north central Nicaragua. A surface trough is 330 nm 
to the E of the cold front, from Hispaniola to 26N. 
Precipitation: broken to overcast multilayered clouds and widely 
scattered to scattered moderate and isolated strong, from 21N 
northward from 54W westward. 24-hour rainfall totals that are 
listed for the period that ended at 22/0000 UTC...according to 
the PAN AMERICAN TEMPERATURE AND PRECIPITATION 
TABLES...MIATPTPAN/SXCA01 KNHC...are 0.06 in Bermuda. 

A 1012 mb low pressure center is near 29N41W. A surface trough 
curves away from the low pressure center, to 33N38W 26N33W and 
17N37W. A shear line continues from 17N37W to 12N50W to 13N58W.
Precipitation: widely scattered moderate from 23N to 32N between 
27W and 38W. Broken multilayered clouds are elsewhere within 120 
nm on either side of the rest of the surface trough and the 
shear line. 

Strengthening low pressure NE of the NW Bahamas early this 
morning will move eastward through tonight. The area of low 
pressure will turn NE and move out of the area on Thursday.
Gale-force winds are occurring N of the NW Bahamas and W of 77N 
behind the area of low pressure. The gale-force winds will 
continue through Thursday, and expand to the E as the low 
pressure moves away from the Bahamas. Near storm conditions are 
possible. A cold front extends from the low pressure center, 
through the SE Bahamas and E Cuba. The front will stretch from S 
of Bermuda through Hispaniola this evening, and then stall in 
the far SE waters and Puerto Rico from Thursday night into 
Friday.

$$
mt