086 
AXNT20 KNHC 132146
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0015 UTC Mon Jul 14 2025

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 
2100 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A central Atlantic tropical wave is along 38.5W from 03-19N, 
moving westward at around 20 kt. Scattered moderate convection is 
noted ahead of this wave, from 01-10N between 37-43W.

A central Atlantic tropical wave is along 52.5W from near the
border of French Guiana and Brazil northward to 18N, westward at 
around 15 kt. Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms are in
the vicinity of the wave.

An exiting Central American tropical wave is along 88.5W from 
along the coast of Belize southward across the Gulf of Honduras 
and western Honduras into the eastern tropical Pacific, moving
westward around 20 kt. Some scattered showers and possible are
noted on satellite imagery along the wave axis along the coast of
Belize and Gulf of Honduras.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... 

A monsoon trough enters the Atlantic near the border of Mauritania
and the Senegal at 15.5N16W, continuing southwestward to 10N20W to
1014 mb low pressure near 11N45W to 09N52W. Associated 
convection is described above with the tropical waves.

...GULF OF AMERICA...

Weak high pressure prevails across the NE Gulf producing gentle 
to moderate SE winds over the western Gulf, and mainly light winds
elsewhere. Seas are 1 to 2 ft east of 89W, and 3 to 4 ft west of
89W. Convection is confined to near the coast of Louisiana, and
near SW Florida including Florida Bay.

For the forecast, the high pressure will drift slowly westward 
and into the NW Gulf by Wed. In the meantime, a trough of low 
pressure near the southeastern U.S. coast is expected move 
westward across Florida during the next day or so, and into the 
northeastern Gulf by Tuesday. Environmental conditions could 
support some gradual development of this system during the middle 
to late part of this week while it moves westward over the 
northeastern and north-central portions of the Gulf, accompanied 
by active weather.

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

Most of the basin is free of convection away from coastal areas. 
The pressure gradient between high pressure north of the region 
and the 1010 mb Colombia Low supports fresh to strong NE to E 
winds in the south-central Caribbean, along with seas of 6 to 9 
ft. Moderate to fresh trades are elsewhere from 11N to 18N between
70W and Central America, with seas of 4 to 7 ft. Gentle to
moderate winds are elsewhere, along with 2 to 5 ft seas.

For the forecast, a weak ridge will prevail N of the area through
Mon. High pressure will then build westward across the region and
into Florida Tue through Thu. This pattern will continue to 
support pulsing fresh to strong trades and rough seas across the 
south-central Caribbean through early Tue then expand across much
of the central basin late Tue through Thu. Fresh E winds are 
expected across the Gulf of Honduras through Fri, pulsing to 
locally strong tonight. Moderate to fresh winds and moderate seas 
are expected in the eastern Caribbean through Tue while gentle to 
moderate winds and slight to moderate seas will prevail NW 
portions. 

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A surface trough is analyzed along the coast of eastern Florida
supporting enhanced convection over the peninsula. Widely 
scattered moderate convection is also east of the trough over the 
waters from 27N to 31N west of 74W. Another surface trough is 
analyzed from near Bermuda to 25N68W, with widely scattered 
moderate convection noted on satellite imagery from 22N to 29N 
between 64W and 72W. Refer to the tropical wave section for 
additional convection in the Atlantic basin.

The remainder of the Atlantic is dominated by surface ridging
stemming from a 1025 mb high near 29.5N39W. Moderate to locally
fresh trades are present from 11N to 26N between 20W and 60W, with
fresh to strong winds north of 26N east of 20W to the coast of
Africa where seas are 6 to 9 ft. Winds are moderate or weaker 
across the remainder of the basin, including the SW N Atlantic 
offshore zones. Seas are 4 to 6 ft elsewhere south of 27N and east
of 60W, and 2 to 4 ft across the remainder of the waters.

For the forecast west of 55W, a weak ridge will dominate the 
forecast area through Mon. High pressure will then build westward 
across the region and into Florida Tue through Thu in the wake of 
a trough of low pressure forecast to move westward across Florida 
during the next day or so, and into the northeastern Gulf by 
Tuesday. Active weather is expected in association with this 
system over the waters west of 75W through Tue. The pressure 
gradient between the Atlantic ridge building westward and the 
trough of low pressure will support moderate to fresh SE to S 
winds across the Bahamas and through the NW zones Tue through 
early Thu. 

$$
Lewitsky