000
AXNT20 KNHC 110446
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0615 UTC Sat Jul 11 2026

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 
0444 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Caribbean Gale Warning: The pressure gradient between the central
Atlantic high pressure and lower pressures over northern South 
America will support strong to near gale-force northeast to east 
trades over the south-central Caribbean, including the Gulf of 
Venezuela into early next week. Winds are forecast to pulse to 
gale- force off the coast of Colombia and the Gulf of Venezuela 
tonight and again Sat night. Seas are expected to peak to around 
14 ft off Colombia Sat night. 

Please refer to the latest NWS High Seas Forecast at website: 
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFEP2.shtml for more details.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

The axis of a central Atlantic tropical wave is near 57.5W, south
of 17N. It is moving westward at around 15 kt. Scattered showers 
and isolated thunderstorms are seen from 09N to 14N between 54W
and 62W. 

The Caribbean tropical wave has moved to the eastern Pacific. More
information about this wave can be found in the Eastern Pacific 
Tropical Weather Discussion (TWDEP). 

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic near 19N17W and continues 
southwestward to 08N32W. The ITCZ continues from 08N32W to 
06N52.5W. Scattered moderate and isolated strong convection is 
from 07N to 10N between 20W and 32W.

...GULF OF AMERICA...

Numerous scattered showers and thunderstorms are noted across the
southeastern Gulf. A relatively weak pressure gradient over the 
area is supporting gentle to locally moderate winds, along with 
slight seas, across the region.

For the forecast, high pressure will dominate into next week, 
supporting mainly gentle SE winds. Fresh E winds will pulse 
offshore the Yucatan Peninsula each night. 

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

Please refer to the Special Features section above for details on
gale conditions forecast for offshore Colombia and in the Gulf 
of Venezuela.

The pressure gradient between the Atlantic ridge and the Colombian
low is supporting strong winds over the central Caribbean,
reaching gale force off Colombia according to the latest ASCAT.
Seas within these winds peak to 12 ft. Moderate to fresh trades 
and moderate seas prevail across the remainder of the Caribbean.

For the forecast, the aforementioned pressure gradient will 
support strong to near gale- force easterly trades and rough seas 
over the central Caribbean through next week, including the 
Windward Passage. Winds will pulse to gale-force off Colombia and 
in the Gulf of Venezuela tonight and Sat night. Trades over the 
Gulf of Honduras will pulse to strong each evening through early 
next week. Moderate to locally fresh easterly breezes and moderate
seas are expected in the eastern Caribbean into the next week.

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Numerous moderate convection is depicted from north of Cuba to 28N
and west of 78W. Scattered showers and thunderstorms are noted 
north of 28N between 52.5W and 60W. Farther east, a weakening cold
front enters the waters near 31N15W and extends to 27N32WW. 
Gentle to moderate N winds are N of the frontal boundary. High 
pressure dominates the remainder of the waters N of 20N, anchored 
by a 1022 mb high near 25N54.5W. Light to gentle winds are in the 
vicinity of the high. Moderate to fresh winds are noted elsewhere,
except for pulsing strong winds offshore Hispaniola. Seas are 
moderate or less across the discussion waters.

For the forecast west of 55W, the subtropical ridge will remain 
dominant through the period, supporting moderate to fresh trades S
of 23N, with mainly gentle winds to the N. Pulsing strong winds 
are expected each night offshore Hispaniola and in the Windward 
Passage. An upper level low pressure will move W from the Bahamas 
and Florida through the weekend, bringing thunderstorms with 
locally strong winds and frequent lightning.

$$
KRV