000
AXNT20 KNHC 042007
TWDAT 

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0015 UTC Thu Nov 5 2026

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 
2000 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Western Atlantic Gale Warning: A sharp trough is analyzed this 
afternoon from 31N66.5W to 1008 mb low pressure near 27N63W, with
a stationary front extending from west through the low to east. A
large area of fresh to strong NE-E winds are found from 27N to 31N
between 55W and 70W with gale force winds across the northern
portion of those waters. Associated seas are 8-13 ft. The 
pressure gradient is expected to continue to support near gale to
gale force NE to E winds roughly over the waters N of 29N between
60W and 70W. Gale-force winds may continue across northern 
portions of this expected broad low pressure into late Sat. Seas 
are expected to build to 10-15 ft with these winds through Thu as 
the low pressure drifts east-northeastward. Environmental conditions
could support this system gradually acquiring subtropical 
characteristics through this weekend while it moves slowly 
eastward over the western and central subtropical Atlantic. By 
early next week, environmental conditions are forecast to become 
unfavorable for further development. Please read the latest High 
Seas Forecast issued by the National Hurricane Center at website: 
https://nhc.noaa.gov/text/HSFAT2.html

Heavy Precipitation across Central America: Deep-layer troughing 
over the northwestern Caribbean extends southwestward across
northern portions of Central America and into the tropical
eastern Pacific. This feature will interact with enhanced low- 
level moisture and onshore flow south of the monsoon trough over
the next several days. This will favor heavy precipitation 
developing across Central America starting today and lasting 
through at least Friday. The heaviest precipitation is expected 
across Nicaragua and Costa Rica, with the bulk of precipitation 
occurring through Thursday. Heavy rainfall may lead to life- 
threatening flash flooding and landslides. Please refer to your 
local weather agency and the International Desk at the Weather 
Prediction Center for more details.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough reaches the Atlantic from 11N15W to 07N22W. The
ITCZ extends from 07N22W to 10N35W to 07N45W to near Trinidad and
Tobago and the NE coast of Venezuela at 10N63W. Scattered to
numerous moderate convection is noted from 03N to 10N between 21W
and 44W.

...GULF OF AMERICA...

A cold front reaches from the SE LA coast and border with
Mississippi near 30.5N89.5W to just north of Tampico, Mexico. 
Moderate to fresh N to NE winds follow the front. Scattered 
moderate convection is occurring in the far NE Gulf, driven by 
convergent surface winds in the E Gulf and an old pre-frontal 
trough near the FL Panhandle. Surface ridging prevails elsewhere 
across much of the Gulf, supporting gentle to moderate or weaker 
winds and 2-4 ft seas. 

For the forecast, a cold front across the NW Gulf will weaken and
dissipate tonight. Moderate northwest to north winds prevail west
of the front. The next cold front is expected to move across the 
Gulf waters this weekend. Fresh to strong north winds will develop
west of the front and west of 93W on Sun, with moderate north to 
northeast winds elsewhere behind the front. 

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

Deep-layer troughing across the northwestern Caribbean supports 
scattered moderate to strong convection from 14N to 22N between 
75W and 81W. Elsewhere, the pressure gradient between surface 
ridging in the Atlantic and the 1009 mb low just off NW Colombia 
supports mainly moderate trades in the SE and NW Caribbean with
light to gentle winds across the remainder of the waters. Seas of
1-4 ft are seen across the Caribbean. 

For the forecast, a weak pressure gradient across the area is 
supporting moderate trade winds, along with moderate seas, over 
the central and eastern Caribbean. Light to gentle winds and 
slight to moderate seas are over the western Caribbean. The 
pressure gradient will further loosen across the area today. This 
will diminish the moderate trades across the central and eastern 
Caribbean. 

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Please see the Special Features section for information on a Gale
Warning in the western Atlantic. 

A cold front enters the open high seas waters through 31N30W to
25N38W then continues as stationary through 27N47W to 24N55W to
the 1008 mb Special Features low near 27N63W to 27N66W. Scattered
moderate to strong convection is occurring from 22N to 31N between
50W and 66W. Additional isolated to widely scattered moderate 
convection occurring farther east along the front from 22N to 28N
between 30W and 50W, as well as ahead of the cold front to 19W to
the N of 25N. In addition to the winds and seas described in the 
Special Features section above, moderate to fresh NE winds and 5-8
ft seas prevail across much of the waters N of 25N and the front.
Gentle to moderate or weaker trades and 3-6 ft seas prevail 
elsewhere across the basin.

For the forecast west of 55W, a 1008 mb low pressure centered 
near 26N65W will track slowly east- northeastward during the rest 
of the week and the weekend. A broad zone of strong to gale- force
winds, and rough to very rough seas, peaking near 14 ft, will 
develop north of the low pressure and expand eastward through Sun,
impacting the waters mainly north of about 27N. The gale-force 
winds will likely be north of 29N through the end of the week. 
Elsewhere, a weakening cold front will move across the waters 
between Florida and 75W Fri and Fri night, then dissipate Sat and 
Sat night. 

$$
Lewitsky