000
AXNT20 KNHC 151543
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1815 UTC Tue Sep 15 2026

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 
1543 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A well defined tropical wave is along 56W, south of 21N, moving 
westward at 10-15 kt. Moderate to fresh E winds along with seas 
4 to 6 ft are found in the vicinity of the wave. Scattered 
moderate to isolated strong convection is observed from 11N to 21N
and between 51W and 59W. 

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic near 13N17W and continues 
to 07N45W. The ITCZ extends from 07N45W to 10N54W. Scattered 
moderate to isolated strong convection is noted from 05N to 20N 
and east of 26W.
 
...GULF OF AMERICA...

A few showers and isolated thunderstorms are occurring in the
eastern Gulf waters and off Veracruz. A weak high pressure over
the N Gulf supports moderate E to SE winds and 3 to 5 ft seas in 
the Bay of Campeche. Elsewhere, light to gentle winds and slight 
seas prevail.

For the forecast, a strong high pressure over the eastern United 
States will build southward behind a weakening cold front that 
will spread across the eastern Gulf waters. The tighter pressure 
gradient will support fresh to locally strong NE-E winds and rough
seas starting in the NE Gulf tonight and spreading over the 
northern Gulf waters through Thu night. Elsewhere, a diurnal 
trough will move westward offshore the Yucatan Peninsula each 
evening through Thu night, bringing nightly pulses of fresh to 
locally strong NE winds. Conditions will improve across the basin 
Fri, allowing for moderate or weaker winds and slight to moderate 
seas during the weekend. 

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

The interaction between an large upper-level low pressure system
over the north-central Caribbean and tropical moisture support
scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms south of Puerto Rico.
This environment is also generating a few showers in the eastern 
Caribbean, bringing some rain to Puerto Rico and the Virgin 
Islands. 

High pressure north of the area sustains fresh to strong easterly
trade winds and moderate to rough seas across much of the central
Caribbean. Moderate to locally fresh NE-E winds and moderate seas
are occurring in the eastern Caribbean, Windward Passage and lee 
of Cuba. Elsewhere, moderate or weaker winds and moderate seas 
prevail.

For the forecast, tight pressure gradient between the subtropical
ridge located north of the islands and lower pressures in 
Colombia will support fresh to locally near gale-force easterly 
trade winds and moderate to rough seas across much of the central 
Caribbean, with moderate to fresh trades elsewhere from 11N to 
18N. These conditions will persist through the workweek. 
Elsewhere, moderate or lighter winds and slight to moderate seas 
are expected, except moderate to fresh mainly in the evenings near
the Windward Passage and Lee of Cuba through midweek. Winds may 
diminish across the basin by the end of the week into the upcoming
weekend as the pressures gradient relaxes, with seas also 
slightly subsiding. 

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A pre-frontal trough is noted ahead of an approaching cold front
over the NW waters producing scattered showers and isolated 
thunderstorms north of 27.5N and between 68W and 76W. Meanwhile, 
a large upper-level low over and east of the SE Bahamas is 
supporting scattered showers south of 26N and between 61W and 
72W. High pressure dominates the rest of the SW North Atlantic, 
sustaining moderate or weaker winds and slight to moderate.

Another upper-level low over the central Atlantic interacts with a
surface trough analyzed along 51.5W and north of 26N, producing 
numerous showers and isolated thunderstorms north of 26N and 
between 46W and 54W. Environmental conditions are forecast to 
become more conducive for development in a few days, and a 
tropical depression could form late this week as the system moves 
slowly west-northwestward over the subtropical Atlantic. The 
system has a medium chance of formation over the next 7 days. A 
strong subtropical ridge centered north of the Azores extends 
southward into the central and eastern Atlantic, supporting 
moderate to fresh easterly winds and moderate seas between 25W 
and 53.5W. Moderate or weaker winds and moderate seas are 
prevalent elsewhere.

For the forecast west of 55W, a cold front is approaching the 
waters off NE Florida and then will become stationary from Bermuda
to the NW Bahamas into Wed. A tight pressure gradient between the
building ridge over the eastern United States and the front will 
result in fresh to locally strong NE winds and seas to build to 
rough N of the Bahamas and W of 70W through early Thu. Conditions 
will improve later Thu into Fri. During the middle to later 
portion of the week, a trough of low pressure is forecast to move 
west- northwestward into the NE portion of the waters, bringing 
thunderstorms while also weakening the high and pressure gradient.


$$
KRV