000
AXNT20 KNHC 140312
TWDAT 

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0615 UTC Sat Nov 14 2026

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 
0300 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Atlantic Gale Warning: A cold front extends from 31N69W to the NW
Bahamas. Gales will develop overnight into Sat morning N of 30N 
ahead of the front near 30N62W, along with rough seas. These gales
will be short- lived, but strong winds will prevail ahead of the 
front into Sun morning, when the front will reach from near 31N55W
to near the Windward Passage.

Please see the latest NWS High Seas Forecast issued by 
the National Hurricane Center at website 
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml for further details.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough extends from 12N16W to 10N20W. The ITCZ extends
from 10N20W to 05N40W to 05N52W. Scattered moderate convection is
active from 04N to 07N between 20W and 40W.

...GULF OF AMERICA...

A stationary front extends from the Florida Keys to offshore 
Veracruz, Mexico. A reinforcing front reaches from near Tampa Bay,
Florida to the middle Texas coast. Fresh E winds follow the 
reinforcing front off the upper Texas coast. Gentle to moderate 
NE to E winds are noted elsewhere. Seas are 3-5 ft across the
basin.

For the forecast, moderate to fresh N winds will veer easterly 
into Sat as high pressure builds southward toward the region. 
These E winds will strengthen Sat night into Sun over the northern
Gulf ahead of a cold front that will move offshore Texas Sun 
night into Mon. Near gale-force winds are likely in the far 
northern Gulf ahead of this cold front early next week. 

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

Fresh winds and 5-7 ft seas remain over the waters east of 70W. 
Light to gentle winds, and slight to moderate seas, are noted 
elsewhere. A trough extends from central Cuba to the Gulf of 
Honduras. Scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms are 
along and east of the trough north of 18N, impacting waters
between Jamaica and eastern Cuba. 

For the forecast, fresh to strong trades over the eastern Caribbean
will diminish Sat. Moderate to fresh northeast to east winds will
prevail behind a surface trough over the northwestern Caribbean 
Sat through Sun night. Trade winds are likely strengthen again 
over the south central Caribbean starting Mon. 

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Please see the Special Features section for information on
upcoming gale conditions east of a cold front. 

A cold front extends from just west of Bermuda to the Florida
Straits, with a reinforcing front moving off the northeast Florida
coast. Scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms are active
ahead within 180 to 300 nm ahead of the first cold front. A recent
scatterometer satellite pass confirmed strong to near-gale force
SW winds within 270 nm ahead of the first front, and recent
altimeter satellite and Sofar buoy data confirmed rough seas to 10
ft in the same area. Fresh to strong NW winds and building seas
follow the reinforcing front off the northeast Florida coast.
Fresh winds and 6-8 ft seas are noted elsewhere west of 65W. Broad
high pressure anchored by 1028 mb high pressure centered near 
32N32W remains the dominant influence elsewhere across the basin. 
This pattern is supporting fresh trade winds and 6-7 seas over the
deep tropics south of 15N and west of 35W, and moderate winds and
seas across the remainder of the north Atlantic region south of
31N.

For the forecast west of 55W, in addition to the aforementioned
gale-force winds and accompanying rough seas, strong winds will 
prevail ahead of the front into Sun morning, when the front will 
reach from near 31N55W to near the Windward Passage. The boundary 
should then stall and weaken into early next week. The pressure 
gradient between the front and building Bermuda high will tigthen,
leading to increasing NE winds S of 27N and W of 65W Mon, and 
these strong winds will expand northward Tue and Tue night. 

$$

Christensen