000
AXNT20 KNHC 150828
TWDAT 

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1215 UTC Sun Nov 15 2026

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 
0830 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Gulf of America Gale Warning: A tightening pressure gradient 
between high pressure building southward toward the basin and 
possible low pressure developing in the west- central or NW Gulf 
will lead to increasing NE to E winds over the northern Gulf. 
Winds will increase to gale- force over portions of the NW and 
north- central basin tonight through Mon. 

Please, see the latest NWS High Seas Forecast issued by the 
National Hurricane Center at website 
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml for further details.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough extends from 11N16W to 09N17W. The ITCZ 
extends from 09N17W to 02N50W. Scattered moderate convection is 
noted from 02N to 15N between 18W and 38W.

...GULF OF AMERICA...

Please see SPECIAL FEATURES above for more on a gale warning in
the NW Gulf. 
 
Fresh to strong winds, and building seas of 6 to locally 8 ft,
prevail over the NW Gulf. moderate to fresh winds and moderate
seas are elsewhere W of 90W. E of 90W, moderate winds and slight
to moderate seas are noted. 

For the forecast, aside from the gales, strong to near gale- 
force N winds will also funnel down the NE coast of Mexico, 
including offshore Veracruz, for the start of the week. Fresh to 
strong NE to E winds are then likely to continue across the NE 
Gulf into the middle of next week as a tight pressure gradient 
prevails. Rough seas will build in association with these strong 
winds, and may impact portions of the northern and western basin 
well into the week. 

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

Moderate to fresh winds, locally strong, and moderate seas cover
the waters east of 71W. Moderate winds and moderate seas are over
the NW Caribbean. Light to gentle winds, and slight to moderate
seas, prevail elsewhere.

For the forecast, fresh to locally strong winds in the southeastern
Caribbean will slowly diminish today into Monday. Fresh to strong
trades will develop in the south- central basin tonight. Moderate
to fresh northeast to east winds will prevail over the 
northwestern Caribbean into Mon.

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A frontal boundary extends from 31N59W to eastern Cuba. Fresh to
strong winds and rough seas to near 11 ft, prevail N of 27N and
east of the front to 50W. Moderate to fresh winds and rough seas
to 10 ft are N of 28N and west of the front to 75W. Gentle winds
and moderate seas are elsewhere west of the front. High pressure
dominates the remainder of the waters N of 15N, anchored by a 1024
mb high centered near 28N31W. Light to gentle winds and slight to
moderate seas are in the vicinity of the high center. Moderate to
fresh winds and moderate seas generally prevail elsewhere. 

For the forecast west of 55W, the front will reach from near 
31N57W to just north of Hispaniola today. By Mon, the front will 
begin to weaken over SE portions of the waters. High pressure 
building southward toward the region will lead to a tightening 
pressure gradient and increasing NE to E winds in the vicinity of 
the Bahamas Mon. These winds and associated rough seas will expand
in area, especially northward and eastward, through the middle of
next week. 

$$
AL