000
AXNT20 KNHC 122036
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0015 UTC Fri Nov 13 2026

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 
2020 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

North-Central Atlantic Gale Warning: a strong cold front is expected
to move off the southeastern U.S. coast tonight accompanied by 
fresh to strong winds on either side of it. The front is expected 
to reach from near 31N66W to the southeastern Bahamas by Sat 
morning, and from near 31N55W to 25N65W and stationary to eastern 
Cuba by Sun morning. Fresh to gale-force winds southwest winds 
will precede the front to over the waters north of about 29N. The 
cold front portion will shift east of 55W late Sun night while the
stationary portion weakens. Please, see the latest NWS High Seas 
Forecast issued by the National Hurricane Center at website 
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml for further details.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough exits the coast of Africa near 08N13W and 
extends to 03N23W. The ITCZ extends from that point to near the
coast of Brazil at 11N50W. Isolated to widely moderate convection
is located from 01N to 07N to the E of 25W.

...GULF OF AMERICA...

A strong cold front extends from the extreme western Florida 
panhandle to southeastern Louisiana and to Brownsville, Texas. A
pre-frontal trough is analyzed from 28N88W to Veracruz, Mexico at
19N96W. Along with these surface features, a mid-level trough is 
supporting isolated to scattered showers across the majority of
the basin. Moderate to fresh northerly winds are N of 23N and W of
the front, with fresh to strong NW-N winds S of 23N and W of the
front offshore of Veracruz. Moderate or weaker winds precede the
front. Seas are in the 3-6 ft range S of 25N, and W of the front
and 3 ft or less across the remainder of the waters.

For the forecast, the front will sweep across the rest of the 
basin tonight exiting the area early on Fri. A pre-frontal trough 
in the western Gulf will sustain fresh to locally strong northwest
to north winds near Tampico and Veracruz through early on Fri. 
Elsewhere, moderate to locally fresh north winds are expected in 
the wake of the cold front. High pressure will build southward 
into the region this weekend, with increasing easterly winds to 
fresh to strong speeds across portions of the northern and central
Gulf. Looking ahead, a second strong cold front associated to 
possible low pressure is expected to push off the Texas coast Mon 
morning, and quickly move across the basin through Tue night. The 
resultant tight pressure gradient will lead to fresh to strong 
winds overspreading just about the entire basin. Winds to near 
gale-force are possible in the northern portion of the NE Gulf 
early next week.

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

The pressure gradient between the Bermuda High north of the region
and a 1007 mb low pressure along the NW coast of Colombia is 
causing fresh to strong trades over the central Caribbean from 11N
to 17N with seas 6-9 ft. Moderate to fresh trades are found
elsewhere from 11N to 21N E of 76W, with moderate or weaker winds
across the remainder of the basin. A pair of surface troughs are
analyzed in the western Caribbean supporting scattered showers and
thunderstorms mainly over the NW Caribbean waters.

For the forecast, fresh to strong trades will prevail over the 
central and eastern Caribbean tonight, with gentle to moderate 
winds elsewhere. The pressure gradient will slacken starting Fri 
as a cold front approaches the Yucatan Channel leading to a 
weakening of the trades. Moderate to fresh northeast to east winds
are likely behind this front over the northwestern Caribbean Sat 
through Sun. Looking ahead, fresh to strong trades may become 
reestablished over the south central Caribbean early next week. 

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A strong cold front is inland, moving across the SE United States.
A pre-frontal trough is analyzed over the waters from 31N74W to NE
of the Bahamas. Scattered moderate convection is found across the
waters N of 20N and W of 60W. Moderate to fresh winds and 3-6 ft
seas cover this same area, locally strong winds N of 30N. To the
E, a weakening cold front is found from 31N30W to 28N52W
supporting some isolated to widely scattered moderate convection
from 20N to 31N between 50W and 60W, and from 26N to 31N between
40W and 50W. Yet another cold front is to the E, reaching from the
coast of Morrocco at 24N16W to 20N40W. Moderate to fresh winds are
found N of the front to 29N between Morrocco and 20W. Rough seas
are also found behind this front, mainly across the waters E of
25W. Moderate seas are across the remainder of the waters. Broad 
high pressure blankets the remainder of the waters. A belt of 
moderate to fresh trades is found over the southern waters from 
06N to 16N to the W of 30W, with moderate or weaker winds across 
the remainder of the waters.

For the forecast west of 55W, a strong cold front is expected to 
move off the southeastern U.S. coast tonight accompanied by fresh 
to strong winds on either side of it. The front is expected to 
reach from near 31N66W to the southeastern Bahamas by Sat morning,
and from near 31N55W to 25N65W and stationary to eastern Cuba by 
Sun morning. Fresh to gale-force winds southwest winds will 
precede the front to over the waters north of about 29N. The cold 
front portion will shift east of 55W late Sun night while the 
stationary portion weakens. On Sun, winds will briefly diminish 
below fresh speeds over the forecast waters. Looking ahead, a 
building Bermuda High should increase northeast winds up to fresh 
to strong speeds south of 27N west of 65W Mon and Mon night, and 
expand northward in coverage Tue and Tue night.

$$
Lewitsky