980 
AXNT20 KNHC 172311
TWDAT 

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0015 UTC Sat Jul 18 2026

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2300 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURE...

Caribbean Gale Warning: A tight pressure gradient between the 
Atlantic high pressure north of the basin and the Colombian low 
will continue to support NE to E winds pulsing to gale-force 
across the waters N of Colombia tonight and Sat night. Otherwise,
strong to near-gale force trade winds and rough seas will prevail
across the much of the central Caribbean into early Mon before 
contracting to south of 15N. Rough to very rough seas in the 12 
to 14 ft range will develop during the times of peak winds.

Please read the latest HIGH SEAS FORECAST 
issued by the National Hurricane Center at website - 
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml for more details.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A well defined tropical wave is moving across the Cabo Verde Islands.
Its axis is along 23.5W, south of 18N, moving westward at 5 to 10 kt.
A broad area of low pressure, associated with this tropical wave,
is located near the southern Cabo Verde Islands. The low continues
to produce a limited and disorganized area of showers and thunderstorms
while it moves west-northwestward at 10 to 15 mph. Significant development
of this system is not expected before environmental conditions become
even less favorable for development over the weekend. Regardless of
development, this system will likely produce some gusty winds and
locally heavy rain over the southern Cabo Verde Islands over the next
several hours. 

Another tropical wave is along 46.5W, south of 18N, moving westward
at 15 to 20 kt. Convection is limited near the wave axis. 

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic near 20N16W and continues
southwestward to a 1011 mb low pressure located near the southern
Cabo Verde Islands to 09N42W. The ITCZ extends from 09N48W to 
09N59W. Scattered moderate convection is observed N of the ITCZ 
to about 11N. 

...GULF OF AMERICA...

A large area of showers and thunderstorms is affecting most of
the Florida Peninsula and the eastern Gulf. This convective
activity is associated with an upper-level low and a surface 
trough. A ridge dominates the Gulf waters, anchored by a 1022 mb
high pressure located over the north-central Gulf near 28N91W.
Under this weather patter, gentle to moderate winds are noted 
per scatterometer data over much of the basin, with the exception
of light to gentle winds across the north-central Gulf near the 
high pressure center. Seas are generally 3 to 5 ft, except 1 to 3
ft N of 25 E of 93W, and over the SE Gulf. 

For the forecast, low pressure across the NE Gulf will remain nearly
stationary into the start of next week. Some gradual development
of this system is possible while it meanders northward, bringing
heavy rain to portions of the Florida west coast during the next
several days. Elsewhere, weak high pressure will dominate, bringing
gentle to moderate winds and slight to moderate seas through the
period. 

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

A Gale Warning remains in effect for the south-central Caribbean
near the coast of Colombia. Please refer to the Special Features
section for more details.

The most recent satellite derived wind data provide observations
of fresh to strong winds over the central Caribbean while an 
altimeter pass indicates seas up to 12 ft with these winds, that
are the result of the pressure gradient between the Atlantic 
ridge and the Colombian low. Moderate to fresh trade winds and 
moderate seas are seen over the eastern Caribbean. Moderate or 
weaker winds are and slight to moderate seas prevail elsewhere. 
The Saharan Air Layer (SAL) from CIMSS shows African dust over 
most of the Caribbean Sea resulting in hazy conditions and 
reduced air quality.

For the forecast, the pressure gradient between the Atlantic 
ridge oriented along 27N and the Colombian low will support NE 
winds pulsing to gale-force across the waters N of Colombia 
tonight and Sat night. Otherwise, strong to near-gale force 
trade winds and rough seas will prevail across the much of the 
central Caribbean into early Mon before contracting to south of 
15N. East winds will pulse fresh to locally strong each evening 
this weekend in the Windward Passage. 

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

High pressure dominates the Atlantic forecast waters, with a 1025
mb center located SE of Bermuda near 28N64W. Moderate to fresh
winds are observed S of 24N while light to gentle winds are seen
elsewhere. Seas are generally moderate based on altimeter data 
and Sofar buoy observations. African dust is also affecting most
of the Atlantic forecast region, particularly E of 70W and over 
the SE Bahamas, suppressing the development of showers and 
thunderstorms. A few showers are occurring E of the Bahamas and W
of 70W.

For the forecast west of 55W, the western Atlantic subtropical 
ridge will gradually weaken and drift northward this weekend, as 
a broad surface trough forms between 50W and 60W. This trough 
will then drift westward next week. Moderate to fresh trades will
prevail S of 24N, with gentle winds to the N. Pulsing strong 
winds are expected during the evenings this weekend N of Hispaniola
and in the Windward Passage. 

$$
GR