000
AXNT20 KNHC 112132
TWDAT 

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0015 UTC Thu Nov 12 2026

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 
1900 UTC.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough extends from 10N14W southwestward to 05.5N21W.
The ITCZ extends from 05.5N21W to just NE of the coast of Brazil 
at 03N48W. Scattered moderate convection is found from 06N to 12N
between Africa and 20W.

...GULF OF AMERICA...

A weak trough over the western Gulf is inducing scattered 
moderate convection offshore the Texas and Louisiana coasts, as
well as offshore NE Mexico. Moderate NW winds are found W of the
trough over the western Gulf nearshore waters. Elsewhere, mainly 
high pressure dominates, with gentle NE winds, along with seas of 
3 ft or less, except to 4 ft W of the trough.

For the forecast, a strong cold front will reach the Texas coast 
early on Thu, then sweep across the basin through Thu night 
exiting the area early on Fri. Fresh to locally strong north winds
and building seas are expected in its wake. High pressure will 
build southward into the region this weekend, with increasing 
easterly winds as the high shifts eastward Sun. Strong east winds 
are likely across portions of the northern Gulf starting on Sun as
the pressure gradient increases ahead of an approaching weather 
system, with an associated cold front that will move offshore the 
Texas coast by Mon morning. The strong east winds will shift to 
mostly the NE Gulf Mon and Mon night as the front and a trough 
translate eastward across the Gulf.

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

The pressure gradient between high pressure centered north of
the region and lower pressure over South America is leading to
fresh to strong trades over the central portion of the basin from
11N to 18N, with moderate to fresh trades elsewhere, except 
weaker near the coast of Central America and in the NW Caribbean. 
Seas are 6 to 8 ft in the central Caribbean from 11N to 18N, and 
4 to 6 ft elsewhere, except 2 to 4 ft over the NW Caribbean. 
Scattered moderate convection is noted in the NW basin between
Cuba and Honduras and Belize due to upper-level divergence.

For the forecast, fresh to strong trades and locally rough seas 
will prevail over the south-central Caribbean into Thu night, with
mainly moderate winds and seas elsewhere. The pressure gradient 
will weaken starting Fri as a cold front approaches the Yucatan 
Channel, leading to a weakening of the trades. Moderate northeast 
to east winds and slightly building seas are likely behind this 
front over the northwestern Caribbean this weekend.

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A cold front extends from 29N45W to 26N60W. Isolated showers are 
associated with a pre-frontal trough N of 28N around 41W, 
otherwise little sensible weather is associated with this front. 
To the east, a cold front extends from the Iberian Peninsula
through 31N11W to 22N41W. Ahead of this front, fresh to strong SW
winds prevail with moderate to fresh winds NW of the front to 26W.
Rough to very rough associated seas are found N of 20N and E of
37W. Upper-level divergence is leading to scattered to numerous 
moderate convection N of the Greater Antilles to 26N, between 63W
and 74W. Across the remainder of the waters, weak high pressure 
is leading to moderate or weaker winds and mainly moderate seas. 

For the forecast west of 55W, a strong cold front is expected to 
move off the southeastern U.S. coast Thu night accompanied by 
fresh to strong winds and building seas on either side of it. The 
front is expected to reach from near 31N64W to eastern Cuba by Sat
afternoon, and from near 30N55W to 25N64W and stationary to 
eastern Cuba by early on Sun. Fresh to strong southwest winds will
be east of the cold front along with seas possibly peaking to 
around 12 ft on Sat. The cold front portion will shift east of 55W
late Sun while the stationary portion weakens. Fresh to strong 
northeast winds are expected north of the stationary front to near
28N through Mon night. 


$$
Lewitsky