000
AXNT20 KNHC 160955
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1215 UTC Fri Oct 16 2026

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 
0900 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Gulf of America Gale Warning: A cold front is forecast to enter
the northwest Gulf today, and reach from southwest Florida to the
central Bay of Campeche by late Sat. Fresh to strong winds and 
moderate to rough seas will follow the front, with gales expected 
over the west-central Gulf by early Sat morning, and over the SW 
Gulf by early Sat afternoon. Rough to very rough seas are expected
with the strongest winds. Gale conditions are forecast to persist
over the SW Gulf through Sun. Please read the latest High Seas 
Forecast issued by the National Hurricane Center under AWIPS/WMO 
headers FZNT02 KNHC/HSFAT2 or at website 
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml for further details.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic near 11N15W and extends SW
to 08N25W. The ITCZ extends from 08N25W to 1010 mb low pressure
near 6.5N37W, then continues to 05N52W. Scattered showers and
thunderstorms are active from 06N to 12N between 13W and 20W,
from 04N to 07N between 25W and 30W, and from 05N to 09N between
35W and 40W.

...GULF OF AMERICA...

An upper-level short-wave trough is supporting scattered showers
and thunderstorms from the Yucatan Channel to the coast of Texas.
Scattered showers and thunderstorms are active along a surface
trough off the coast of Veracruz. 1018 mb high pressure over
Alabama is supporting gentle to moderate E to SE winds and 3 to 5
ft seas across the basin.

For the forecast, a cold front moving through coastal Texas will 
enter the far northwest Gulf today, reach from southwest Florida 
to the central Bay of Campeche by late Sat, then stall and 
dissipate from the Florida Straits to the Bay of Campeche through 
the early part of next week. Gale force winds and rough to very 
rough seas will follow the front over the west- central Gulf by 
early Sat and the southwest Gulf by Sat evening, and persist 
through Sun. Fresh to strong winds and moderate to rough seas will
follow the front elsewhere. Looking ahead, strong high pressure 
will build over the lower Mississippi Valley in the wake of the 
front, promoting fresh to strong NE to E winds mainly over the 
eastern half of the Gulf through Tue. 

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

Upper-level diffluence over Yucatan and the NW Caribbean is 
supporting scattered moderate convection W of 80W. Otherwise, the
seasonal pressure gradient is leading to moderate to fresh trades
through the basin, with some strong easterly winds offshore 
Colombia and in the Gulf of Venezuela. Moderate seas dominate, 
highest in the south-central basin, and rough offshore Colombia.

For the forecast, high pressure N of area combined with the 
Colombian low will support fresh to strong NE to E winds offshore 
Colombia and in the Gulf of Venezuela today, then mainly moderate 
to fresh winds will prevail through the upcoming weekend. Rough 
seas are expected offshore Colombia with the strongest winds. 
Moderate or weaker winds and slight to moderate seas are forecast 
elsewhere. An area of showers and thunderstorms associated with a 
surface trough will continue to affect the NW Caribbean today. 
Gusty winds and locally rough seas will be associated with this 
convective activity. 

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A cold front extends from 31N45W to 25N57W, and then is stationary to
25N70W. Fresh SW winds, 8-9 ft combined seas in NW swell, and 
scattered showers and thunderstorms are active along the front 
east of 50W. Scattered showers and thunderstorms are active near a
surface trough along 52W from 13N to 20N, and within 240 nm east 
of a 1008 mb low pressure area near 23N37W. Moderate to fresh
winds and 5-7 ft seas are noted within 90 nm of the low pressure.
Elsewhere, generally moderate winds and seas are evident across
the basin. 

For the forecast west of 55W, high pressure off the Carolinas 
will shift eastward today, ahead of a strong cold front that will 
move off the coast of northeast Florida by early Sat. The front 
will reach from 31N74W to Florida Straits by early Sun, then stall
and dissipate through early next week. Strong to near- gale force
winds and rough to very rough seas will follow the front, with 
gale force winds possible north of 28N and west of 75W Sun night.

$$
Christensen