000
AXNT20 KNHC 182328
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0015 UTC Wed Aug 19 2026

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 
2300 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

An eastern Atlantic tropical wave has its axis along 26N, south 
of 17N, moving westward at 5 to 10 kt. Scattered moderate convection
is about the wave from 07N to 13N between 23W and 30W.

A central Atlantic tropical wave has its axis near 44W, south of 
18N, moving westward at 15 kt. No significant convection is 
associated with this wave at this time.

An eastern Caribbean tropical wave has its axis near 65W, south 
of 19N, moving westward at around 15 kt. Scattered moderate 
convection is observed over Venezuela from 03N to 10.5N between 
60W and 67W.


A western Caribbean tropical wave has its axis along 86W, south 
of 20N, moving westward at about 15 kt. Scattered moderate 
convection is noted, mostly over land, from 09N to 16N between 80W
and 87W.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

Th monsoon trough enters the Atlantic through the coast of
Senegal near 14N17W and continues southwestward to 10N33W to 11N43W.
The ITCZ extends from 08N52W to 12N64W. Scattered moderate 
isolated strong convection is evident from 05N to 14N and east of
22W. Scattered moderate convection is noted from 11N to 14N
between 30W and 38W. Widely scattered moderate convection is noted
from 07N to 10N between 51W and 62W.

...GULF OF AMERICA...

Weak high pressure centered across the Gulf waters south of the
mouth of the Mississippi River supports moderate W-NW winds across
the NE Gulf, and mainly moderate NE to E winds across the 
southern Gulf. Slight seas to 3 ft dominate the basin. An upper 
level low across the NW Gulf of combining with a low level wind 
surge moving across the western Bay of Campeche to produce 
squattered moderate convection there. Meanwhile, scattered to 
locally numerous moderate to strong afternoon convection has 
fired up across the western portions of the Yucatan Peninsula and 
the adjacent Gulf waters, and is gradually shifting westward.

For the forecast, high pressure will prevail across the Gulf 
waters through the remainder of the week into the weekend. A weak 
pressure pattern will support mostly gentle to moderate winds 
across much of the basin. A diurnally induced surface trough will 
generate fresh to locally strong winds north and west of the 
Yucatan peninsula early each evening. These winds will spread 
westward away from the Yucatan at night as the trough migrates 
into the SW Gulf. Slight to moderate seas are expected through the
forecast period.

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

The subtropical ridge recently north of the Caribbean has shifted
eastward as a frontal system has moved southward of 30N and become
stationary along about 27N, from east of the Bahamas into the
central Atlantic. The remnants of the ridge extend from the
central Atlantic to N of Puerto Rico along 22N. This weakened
pressure pattern is supporting moderate to fresh easterly trade 
winds and seas of 5-8 ft from 68W into Central America, with light
to gentle winds and slight to moderate seas are found elsewhere.
Thunderstorms area active across the coastal waters and inland
from Costa Rica to NE Honduras, behind a tropical wave.

For the forecast, central Atlantic high pressure will begin to
build westward and into the Bahamas tonight through Fri. The 
pressure gradient between this ridge N of the basin and the 
Colombian low will support fresh to strong trade winds and rough 
seas offshore of Colombia tonight, then expand across much of the
south- central Caribbean through the remainder of the forecast 
period. Moderate to fresh trades and moderate seas will prevail in
the north- central and eastern Caribbean into the weekend. 
Elsewhere, moderate or lighter winds and slight to moderate seas 
are expected. 

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A cold front enters the local waters near 31N50W and extends
southwestward to a 1015 mb low center near 28N64.5W then continues
to near 27N72W. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is 
noted along within 150 nm S and SE of the front and low. Moderate
to locally fresh SW winds and seas of 4-7 ft are noted south of
the front to 24N between 44W and 70W. The remainder of the 
tropical Atlantic is dominated by a broad ridge centered on a 1027
mb high near 40W32W, that extends southwestward to just north of
the NE Caribbean. Trade winds across the Atlantic S of 22N and W 
of 30W are moderate or lighter winds and moderate seas. However, 
fresh northerly winds and seas of 5-8 ft are found in the far 
eastern Atlantic off NW Mauritania and southern Western Sahara.
Saharan Air continues to dominate the Atlantic basin N of 15N and
east of the Caribbean, as well as the southern Bahamas, NW
Caribbean and into the SE Gulf of America.

For the forecast west of 55W, the aforementioned front will weaken
into a trough tonight and gradually dissipate as it lifts
northward through Thu. Central Atlantic high pressure will then
build westward into the area. A weak pressure gradient will 
support mainly light to gentle winds, locally moderate, across 
much of the area N of 22N through the week and into the weekend. 
Moderate to locally fresh easterly trade winds can be expected S 
of 22N.

$$
Stripling