000
AXNT20 KNHC 200401
TWDAT 

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0615 UTC Tue Oct 20 2026

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 
0355 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Atlantic Significant N Swell: A 1004 mb low pressure centered
between the Outer Banks and Bermuda continues to produce a large
area of strong to gale-force winds north of our area. A cold front
extends from this low to 31N67W and to 26N71W, followed by a
stationary front to the Florida Straits and central Gulf of
America. Fresh to locally strong northerly winds and rough to very
rough seas, peaking around 15 ft, are noted behind the frontal
boundaries. These seas will continue to gradually decay tonight, 
but remain above 12 ft into Tue. Seas to 8 ft will persist
thereafter over the waters west of 65W and north of 25N through
Thu night.

Please read the latest High Seas Forecast issued by the National 
Hurricane Center under AWIPS/WMO headers FZNT02 KNHC/HSFAT2 or at 
website https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml for further 
details.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic through the coast of The
Gambia near 13N17W and continues west-southwestward to 07N31W. The
ITCZ extends from 07N31W to 08N45W and to 08N60W. Scattered
moderate to isolated strong convection is observed from 05N to 12N
and east of 30W.

...GULF OF AMERICA...

The stationary front depicted from Matanzas, Cuba to the Bay of 
Campeche is dissipating. Divergence aloft and abundant tropical
moisture south of the front supports scattered showers and some
thunderstorms near the frontal boundary, mainly west of 87W, and
over parts of the Yucatan peninsula. The rest of the basin is
engulfed in a dry continental airmass that suppresses deep
convection and supports stratocumulus clouds as the colder air 
moves over the warmer waters. 

The tight pressure gradient between the strong high pressure over
the eastern United States and lower pressures in the deep tropics
forces fresh to near gale-force NW winds and rough seas to 10 ft
in the SW Gulf. Fresh to strong NE winds and seas of 4-8 ft are
also noted in the eastern and northern Gulf waters. Moderate to
fresh and seas of 4-8 ft are found in the rest of the western
waters. In the eastern Bay of Campeche, light to gentle winds and
moderate seas are prevalent.

For the forecast, the aforementioned front will dissipate through
Tue, and high pressure over the eastern U.S. will support 
moderate to fresh winds and moderate seas across the basin into 
the latter part of the week. Looking ahead, building high pressure
over the eastern U.S. will support increased NE winds and 
building seas over the eastern Gulf Sat.

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

Plenty of tropical moisture and strong upper-level winds combine
to produce scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms across the
SW Caribbean, also affecting the countries in the area. Diurnal
heating has also supported some storms over the Greater Antilles.
A weak pressure gradient is found across much of the basin,
supporting mainly moderate or weaker winds and slight to locally
moderate seas. However, the gradient is a bit tighter near South 
America, sustaining moderate to locally strong easterly trade and 
seas of 3-6 ft.

For the forecast, strong high pressure over the eastern U.S. will
support moderate to fresh NE winds across the far northwest 
Caribbean and Yucatan Channel through late Tue. These winds will 
diminish by mid week as the high pressure weakens, leaving gentle 
to moderate winds and slight to moderate seas across the basin 
through mid week. Looking ahead, expect moderate to fresh winds 
across the south-central Caribbean by Thu, and fresh winds across 
the far northwest Caribbean by late Sat as high pressure builds 
again north of the area. 

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

See the Special Features section above for information on 
significant north swell behind a cold front in the western 
Atlantic. 

A broad upper-level low near 25N53W is producing a large area of
showers and isolated thunderstorms from 20N to 31N and between 41W
and 59W. At the surface, the pressure gradient between a strong
ridge off Newfoundland and a couple of surface troughs in the
central Atlantic supports moderate to locally strong easterly
winds and seas of 5-9 ft north of 26N and between 40W and 65W. 

Another surface trough is analyzed along 44W, south of 20N, and a
few showers are evident near this boundary. In the far NE waters,
a weak surface trough and east-west surface trough support some
shower activity near the western Canary Islands. Elsewhere, broad
high pressure dominates sustaining moderate or weaker winds and
moderate seas.

For the forecast west of 55W, moderate to fresh N to NE winds and
rough to very rough seas persist west of a frontal boundary 
reaching from 31N67W to the central Bahamas to northwest Cuba. The
front is stalling, and will dissipate into mid week. Winds will 
diminish through Tue, and lingering swell will subside through 
Thu. Looking ahead, a tightening pressure gradient developing late
Fri is expected to induce widespread near to gale-force NE winds 
over the waters N of about 25N well into the weekend. Seas with 
these winds are expected to quickly build to rough to very rough. 
Mariners should monitor the latest marine forecasts, and have 
avoidance plans in place. 

$$
Delgado