000
AXNT20 KNHC 161059
TWDAT 

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1215 UTC Sun Aug 16 2026

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 
1050 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Heavy Precipitation in South Central America and Colombia: Two 
tropical waves will propagate into Central America over the next
several days. The waves will interact with enhanced divergence 
aloft and an active monsoon trough. The first wave is located  
near 88W. As this wave continues westward, expect heavy 
precipitation to continue in Costa Rica, the Darien region of 
Panama and into Choco-Colombia into Sun. The second tropical wave
will enter the western Caribbean tonight into Mon and strengthen 
the cyclonic rotation over Panama and Colombia, which will favor 
an increase in available moisture into Colombia and moist easterly
flow into the eastern portion of Costa Rica. The heaviest 
precipitation is expected in Costa Rica through this morning, 
while the heaviest precipitation is expected in southwest Panama, 
the Darien Region, and Choco-Colombia late today into Monday. 
There is some uncertainty on how far south the heaviest rainfall 
could reach, particularly due to how far south the available 
moisture and the westerly flow enters the region. 

Please refer to the WPC International Desk and local weather 
services for more information.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A tropical wave is west of the Cape Verde Islands extending from
07N to 19N with axis near 31W, moving west at 15 kt. Scattered 
moderate convection is from 09N to 15N between 25W and 37W.

A tropical wave is over the central waters, extending from 04N to
20N with axis near 47W, moving west at 15-20 kt. Scattered
moderate convection is from 09N to 14N between 46W and 52W.

A tropical wave is over the central Caribbean with axis near 69W 
south of 20N, moving westward at 15-20 kt. Numerous moderate tothe approaches to the
Windward Passagestrong convection is from 12N to 19N between 66W
and 73W.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic near 17N16W, and extends 
southwestward to 11N30W to 10N41W. The ITCZ begins near 09N48W 
and continues to 07N58W. Aside from the convection discussed in 
the Tropical Waves section above, scattered moderate convection
is offshore W Africa from 06N to 14N between 11W and 20W.

...GULF OF AMERICA...

A 1021 mb high is over the Florida Panhandle coastal waters
extending a ridge axis southward to 23N. A generally weak pressure
gradient supports light to gentle variable winds and slight seas N
of 23N. Over the SW Gulf, a surface trough moves across the Bay of
Campeche enhancing winds to moderate speeds and building seas from
slight to moderate. Scattered showers are offshore Veracruz, ahead
of the trough. 

For the forecast, a center of high pressure will remain over the 
north-central Gulf through Mon, then moves toward the SE Gulf by 
Tue while weakening some. This pattern will continue to support 
mostly gentle to moderate E to SE winds across the basin, with 
pulses of fresh winds occurring north and west of the Yucatan 
Peninsula and into the Bay of Campeche each night, as a surface 
trough migrates from the Yucatan Peninsula westward across the SW 
Gulf. Slight to moderate seas are expected through the forecast 
period. 

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

The main feature over the basin is a tropical wave moving across
Hispaniola and central Caribbean this morning, which is bringging
strong winds, rough seas and heavy showers to this region.
Scattered moderate convection is across the Costa Rica and Panama 
offshores associated with the eastern extension of the E Pacific
monsoon. Fresh to strong trade winds are across much of the basin
along with moderate to rough seas, except for moderate to fresh 
NE to E winds over the NW Caribbean where seas are moderate. This
is due to a relatively strong gradient of pressure over the region
influenced by high pressure E of the Bahamas. This is also
accelerating the winds across the Windward Passage to strong
speeds, which has built seas to 9 ft. 

For the forecast, surface ridging N of the area combined with the
Colombian low will continue to support fresh to strong winds over
most of the east, central and SW Caribbean through this evening. 
A strong tropical wave, with axis near 68W, will impact the 
central Caribbean today through Mon. Fresh to strong winds, 
moderate to rough seas and locally heavy rain will be associated 
with the wave, forecast to reach the western part of the basin Mon
night into Tue. Another tropical wave will approach the Leeward 
Islands by Tue. 

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

The subtropical Atlantic waters remain under the influence of the
Bermuda-Azores High, which is supporting mainly moderate or weaker
winds, except across the Great Bahama Bank, the approaches to the
Windward Passage, and the adjacent waters of Puerto Rico and
Hispaniola S of 23N where winds are moderate to fresh from the E,
except locally strong in the the approaches to the Windward 
Passage. Moderate to fresh SW to W winds are also ongoing over the
NE offshore waters N of 28N and E of 74W ahead of an approaching
cold front which is also generating scattered showers and tstms
over this region. Moderate seas are across the western, central
and eastern subtropical Atlantic waters.  

For the forecast west of 55W, the Bermuda-Azores High, combined 
with the passage of a tropical wave through the Caribbean Sea will
cause fresh to strong NE to E winds south of 22N including the 
approaches and in the Windward Passage through tonight. Looking 
ahead, a cold front will slowly push across the northern forecast 
border east of 70W late today, and move across the northern 
forecast waters on Mon while dissipating into a trough by Tue. 
Fresh to strong SW to W winds are expected ahead of the front and 
E of 70W today and tonight.

$$
Ramos