000
AXNT20 KNHC 241036
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1215 UTC Sun May 24 2026

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 
1020 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A tropical wave is along 25W from 12N southward, moving westward 
at 5-10 kt. Scattered moderate convection, enhanced by the Monsoon
Trough and nearby ITCZ, is from 01S to 09N between 21W and 34W. 

A tropical wave is analyzed along 52W, south of 12N, moving 
westward at around 10 kt. Scattered to isolated showers are noted
ahead of the wave axis to 58W and south of 10N.

A tropical wave in the western Caribbean is near 81W, south of 
15N and into the Eastern Pacific region to near 05N. This wave is
nearly stationary, with surface and upper air data from San Andres
Island indicating the wave remains east of the island. Isolated 
showers over the Panama, Costa Rica and Nicaragua offshore waters.
 
...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic near 11N16W and continues 
southwestward to 03N23W. The ITCZ extends from 03N26W to 02N40W to 
00N50W. Outside of the convection related to the tropical waves, 
scattered moderate convection is from 02S to 04N between 32W and
50W. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is offshore
Liberia and Sierra Leone. 

GULF OF AMERICA...

Middle to upper level diffluence continue to support heavy showers
and tstms over the NW, north-central and E Mexico offshore waters.
GLM satellite data indicate strong lightning pulses likely
generating gusty winds, rough seas and limited visibility in those
areas. Otherwise, the Atlantic subtropical ridge that extends into
the NE Gulf is supporting gentle to moderate SE winds ahead of the
areas of convection along with slight to moderate seas to 5 ft. 

For the forecast, high pressure extending from the western 
Atlantic to the NE Gulf will change little through late Mon, then 
weaken for the remainder of the week. The related pressure 
gradient will maintain a gentle to moderate E to SE wind flow 
through this morning, except for light to gentle SE winds W of 
about 94W through Tue as a trough develops off the Texas coast. 
Winds then generally become SE at gentle to moderate speeds across
the basin through midweek, with slight to moderate seas, with the
exception of fresh to strong winds pulsing off NW Yucatan from 
the late afternoons and into the night time hours. Numerous 
showers and thunderstorms over the NW and north-central Gulf 
producing frequent lightning with gusty winds will continue to 
reduce visibility through later this morning. Otherwise, 
increasing moisture over the SE Gulf beginning by mid-week should 
lead to increasing chances for unsettled weather in that part of 
the Gulf. Mariners are urged to keep up with the latest forecast. 

CARIBBEAN SEA...

The pressure gradient between the subtropical ridge that extends
into the northern Caribbean, and the Colombian Low continue to 
support fresh to strong trades in the central Caribbean as well 
as the Gulf of Honduras. Elsewhere, trades are moderate to fresh
and seas 4-7 ft, except 7-9 ft offshore Colombia. Otherwise, 
scattered showers are ongoing over the waters adjacent to southern 
Cuba, the Windward Passage and offshore southern Dominican
Republic.

For the forecast, the pressure gradient between high pressure 
north of the area and relatively lower pressures in northern South
America will support fresh to strong trades over the south- 
central Caribbean well into the upcoming week bringing rough seas 
across those waters. Fresh to strong trades will pulse each 
evening over the Gulf of Honduras through the period. Fresh trades
elsewhere across the basin will begin to increase in coverage 
starting Mon as N Atlantic high pressure begins to shift 
southeastward tightening the pressure gradient.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A broad subtropical ridge dominates the Atlantic waters, providing  
moderate to fresh trades and 5-7 ft seas across the waters S of
27N and W of 50W. Winds are locally strong along the northern 
shore of Hispaniola. Moderate or weaker winds are elsewhere.

For the forecast west of 55W, high pressure will continue to 
dominate most of the forecast region into Mon. Fresh to strong 
trades will pulse north of Hispaniola during the afternoons and 
evenings through Mon night. The western part of a backdoor cold 
front will push south across the eastern portion of the area from 
tonight into early Mon before stalling near 27N, and dissipating 
on Tue. Fresh to strong northeast winds along with moderate to 
rough seas will follow the front, subsiding late Tue. Elsewhere, 
trades are forecast to increase over most of the western half of 
the area starting Mon, including the waters between Cuba and the 
Bahamas as well as the entrance to the Windward Passage as 
initially stronger Atlantic high pressure begins to shift east-
southeastward tightening the pressure gradient. The high pressure 
will then begin to weaken Wed allowing for the tight gradient to 
slacken leading to diminishing trades. Expect for increasing 
moisture along with unsettled weather conditions for the far 
western portion of the area beginning around the middle portion of
the week. 

$$
Ramos