000
AXNT20 KNHC 091724
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1815 UTC Mon Nov 9 2026

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 
1700 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Western Atlantic Gale Warning: A 996 mb low pressure is centered 
near 30N47W, moving NE at 10-15 kt. A warm front extends from the
low to 25N31W. Recent satellite scatterometer data showed gale 
force SW winds occurring in the SE quadrant of the low, where buoy
and altimeter data indicated seas of 10 to 16 ft in mixed swell. 
Across the remainder quadrants of the low, a broad zone of strong 
to near-gale force winds cover a region from 20N to 31N between 
34W and 60W. Buoy and altimeter data suggest that seas in this 
area are 8 to 13 ft in mixed NE and SW swell. Scattered to 
numerous moderate to strong convection is occurring mostly to east
of this deep-layered low pressure system, from 25N to 31N between
39W and 45W. The low will continue to move east-northeastward and
accelerate, moving east of 35W by Tue night. The broad zone of 
strong to gale force SW winds occurring with the low will shift in
sync with the low through Tue, generating very rough to high seas
to around 20 ft before exiting the forecast area. 

Please read the latest High Seas Forecast issued by the National 
Hurricane Center at website: 
https://nhc.noaa.gov/text/HSFAT2.html

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic waters near 11N15W to 
08N20W. The ITCZ extends from that point to 06N57W. Scattered 
moderate convection is noted along the ITCZ.

GULF OF AMERICA...

A surface trough extends along coastal Deep South Texas to the NE
Mexico offshore waters, and is generating scattered showers in 
that area. Moderate to fresh ESE winds and moderate seas in the 4 
to 6 ft range are W of 90W while light to gentle winds and slight
seas are elsewhere E of 90W.

For the forecast, high pressure across the area supports gentle 
to moderate winds except locally fresh in the NW Gulf. Slight seas
dominate the NE half of the basin with moderate seas elsewhere. 
Winds will diminish to light to gentle across the basin by 
midweek. The next cold front will move into the NW Gulf on Thu and
rapidly shift across the Gulf basin, moving SE of the area Fri. 
The front will be followed by fresh to locally strong winds and 
building seas. 

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

Due to the gale-force low northeast of the Caribbean, the pressure
gradient across forecast waters remains weak, promoting only 
gentle to moderate trade winds across much of the basin and seas 
of 2-4 ft. Recent scatterometer data indicates moderate to fresh
trades offshore NW Colombia. A surface trough in the SW Caribbean
is generating scattered moderate convection over the waters
offshore Honduras.

For the forecast, a weak pressure gradient across the basin will 
result in moderate or weaker trade winds, except moderate to fresh
in the central portion, along with slight to moderate seas, 
through today. Winds will strengthen to fresh to strong over the 
central Caribbean by Tue and then prevail through the week, with 
mainly moderate to locally fresh winds elsewhere, except weaker 
near Central America. Expect rough seas with the fresh to strong 
winds. Winds will weaken over the western portion of the basin 
toward the end of the week as a cold front approaches from the NW.
The front may enter the NW Caribbean Fri, followed by moderate to
fresh winds and building seas. 

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Please see the Special Features section for information on a Gale
Warning. 

A cold front extends from SE of Bermuda to the NW Bahamas where 
it transitions to a surface trough to the Florida Straits. West of
62W, winds are gentle to moderate and seas are moderate. A cold
front has moved E of the Canary Islands, with moderate to fresh NW
winds and seas of 8-10 ft behind the front to 30W and N of 20N.
Gentle to moderate or weaker winds and moderate seas prevail
across much of the remaining Atlantic.

For the forecast west of 55W, fresh to locally strong winds and 
rough to very rough seas cover the waters north of 20N and east of
61W on the periphery of a gale low centered east of the area. 
These winds and seas will decrease from west to east through the 
early part of the week as the low shifts further from the forecast
waters. Elsewhere, a cold front extends from 31N60W through a 
1015 mb low at 28N70W to the NW Bahamas then a trough continues to
the Florida Keys. The front and low will move eastward over the 
waters north of 25N through midweek. Another, stronger, cold front
will enter the NW waters toward the end of the week, ushering in 
fresh to strong winds and building seas on both sides of it.

$$ 
Adams/Juliano