000
AXNT20 KNHC 211045
TWDAT 

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1215 UTC Fri Aug 21 2026

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 
1030 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A new far eastern Atlantic tropical wave is analyzed near 17W
based on satellite imagery and on model diagnostics. It is moving
westward near 15 kt. satellite imagery shows an ill-defined mid-
level cyclonic circulation near 11N17W. Increasing scattered
showers and thunderstorms are west of the wave to near 21N from
08N to 10N.

An eastern Atlantic tropical wave has its axis along 37W south of 
21N moving westward at 15 to 20 kt. Increasing scattered moderate
convection is within 150 nm either side of the wave from 08N to 
09N and from 12N to 14N.

A central Atlantic tropical wave has its axis along 48W south of 
19N moving westward at 15 to 20 kt. Increasing scattered moderate
to isolated strong convection is east of the wave to near 45W and 
from 10N to 13N.

A central Caribbean tropical wave is along 72W south of 19N. It 
is moving westward at about 15 kt. No significant convection is
occurring with this wave.

A western Caribbean tropical wave has its axis along 87W south of 
20N to inland Central America, and reaches farther south to the 
eastern Pacific Ocean. It is moving westward at around 15 kt.
Scattered moderate convection has recently formed over the
northwest portion of Honduras, and near its coast behind the wave.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic near 18N16W and continues 
southwestward to 10N22W, then to 12N30W to 11N40W and to 10N49W, 
where it transitions to the ITCZ to 10N55W and to 10N60W. Outside 
of convection associated with tropical wave, scattered moderate to
isolated strong convection is within 60 nm south of the trough 
between 32W-35W. Scattered moderate convection is south of the 
trough from 06N to 10N between 29W-33W. 

...GULF OF AMERICA...

A mid to upper-level trough stretches from southeastern Georgia 
to the NE Gulf and to the northern Yucatan Peninsula. A mid-level 
low is near 27N86W. To the southwest of these features, broad 
mid to upper-level anticyclonic flow covers the basin south of 
about 27N. Plenty of instability is in place over most of the 
eastern Gulf providing favorable conditions for the trough 
and low to aid in the development of additional showers and 
thunderstorms over the NE Gulf through Sat, and in addition as a 
couple of shortwave troughs swing eastward across this same part of 
the Gulf.
 
Otherwise, relatively weak high pressure across the basin supported 
by a 1017 mb high center at 26N91W is providing for generally light 
to gentle anticyclonic winds throughout, except for fresh to strong 
NE winds west of the Yucatan Peninsula due the pressure gradient 
associated with a diurnal trough. Seas are generally 3 ft or less.

For the forecast, the aforementioned weak high pressure centered 
over the central Gulf will prevail over the basin through early 
next week. A weak pressure pattern will support mostly gentle to 
moderate winds and slight to locally moderate seas across much of 
the basin. A surface trough will generate fresh to locally strong 
winds north and west of the Yucatan Peninsula in the early 
evenings. These winds will spread westward away from the peninsula
at night as the trough migrates into the SW Gulf. 

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

See Tropical Waves section above for information on convection 
across the basin.

The pressure gradient between weak high pressure centered S of 
Bermuda and low pressure over northern Colombia is supporting 
fresh to strong trades over the south- central basin between 69W 
and 75W, with moderate to fresh trades elsewhere, except gentle 
over the NW basin. Seas are moderate, except 7 to 9 ft in the 
south-central portion as noted in overnight satellite altimeter 
data passes. Slight sea state over the northwest part of the sea.

Isolated showers and isolated thunderstorms are noted south of 
14N east of 70W.

For the forecast, the pressure gradient associated to relatively 
weak high pressure over the western Atlantic will continue to 
sustain fresh to strong trade winds and rough seas across the 
south-central Caribbean through much of the forecast period. 
Moderate to fresh trades and moderate seas will prevail over the 
north- central and eastern Caribbean through the weekend and into 
early next week. A tropical wave will move across the tropical 
Atlantic and into the far eastern Caribbean early next week 
enhancing the trade wind flow across those waters. Elsewhere, 
moderate or lighter winds and slight to moderate seas are 
expected. 

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

See Tropical Waves section for information on convection in deep
tropics. 

A weak 1018 mb low is just north of the area near 33N51W, with a 
trough extending southwestward to another weak low of 1017 mb near
30N56W. The trough continues from this low to near 27N65W. 
Scattered thunderstorms are along and near the trough and 1017 mb 
low from 27N to 30N between 55W and 58W. Isolated showers and 
thunderstorms are present elsewhere north of 25N between 55W and 
78W. The remainder of the basin remains under the influence of 
subtropical ridging, generally allowing for moderate or weaker 
winds and seas, except for a belt of moderate to fresh trades 
between 12N and 22N, where seas are 5 to 7 ft. Fresh to locally 
strong north to northeast winds prevail across the northeastern 
waters from the Canary Islands southward to near 18N and east of 
about 22W. Seas over these waters are 6 to 9 ft.

For the forecast west of 55W, the weak pressure gradient in place
will support mostly light to gentle winds over most of the waters
north of 23N going into early next week. Moderate to fresh trades
are expected south of about 23N, especially off northern 
Hispaniola through the period. These trades may pulse to fresh to 
strong speeds off northern Hispaniola at night through most of the
forecast period. Meanwhile, the northern portion of tropical wave
is expected to move through the eastern portion of the area early
next week enhancing the trades some. 

$$
Aguirre