000
AXNT20 KNHC 051724
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1815 UTC Thu Nov 5 2026

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 
1700 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Western Atlantic Gale Warning: A 1005 mb low pressure area, 
located near 27N65W, is producing gale force winds to the north 
and northwest of the center, as observed on recent scatterometer 
satellite data. Widespread strong winds are occurring across much 
of the central tropical Atlantic, generally north of 27N between 
55W and 70W. Recent buoy data indicate that rough seas of 8 to 12 
ft are occurring in this region, with locally higher seas to 16 ft
noted near the gale force winds. Scattered moderate to isolated 
strong convection is also noted. Environmental conditions could 
support this system gradually acquiring subtropical 
characteristics through this weekend while it moves slowly 
eastward over the western and central subtropical Atlantic. By 
early next week, environmental conditions are forecast to become 
unfavorable for further development. Regardless of subtropical 
development, an area of strong to gale-force winds and rough to 
very rough seas will expand eastward through Sun, impacting the 
waters mainly north of about 27N. The gale-force winds will likely
be north of 29N through the end of the week. Winds and seas start
to diminish thereafter, as environmental conditions are forecast 
to become unfavorable for further development. 

Please read the latest High Seas Forecast issued by the National 
Hurricane Center at website: 
https://nhc.noaa.gov/text/HSFAT2.html

Heavy Precipitation across Central America: Deep-layer troughing 
over the northwestern Caribbean extends southwestward across
northern portions of Central America and into the tropical
eastern Pacific. This feature will interact with enhanced low- 
level moisture and onshore flow south of the monsoon trough over
the next several days. This will favor heavy precipitation 
developing across Central America starting today and lasting 
through at least Friday. The heaviest precipitation is expected 
across Nicaragua and Costa Rica, with the bulk of precipitation 
occurring through today. Heavy rainfall may lead to life- 
threatening flash flooding and landslides. 

Please refer to your local weather agency and the International 
Desk at the Weather Prediction Center for more details.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic near 11N15W and extends to
06.5N19.5W. The ITCZ extends from 06.5N19.5W to 08N59W. Scattered
moderate convection is noted from 01N to 13N between 18W and 40W. 

...GULF OF AMERICA...

A cold front extends from the northeastern Gulf near 30.5N86.5W
and continues southwestward to 28N89.5W, where it transitions to a
stationary front and extends to 25N96W. Farther east, a 1014 mb
high prevails over the eastern basin. This pattern is supporting 
light breezes and 1-3 ft seas across the basin.

For the forecast, the frontal boundary will weaken and dissipate 
today. The next cold front is expected to move across the Gulf 
waters this weekend. Near gale NW winds are expected in the SW 
Gulf Sun night and Mon west of the front. Moderate to fresh winds 
will prevail elsewhere west of the front on Sun through early next
week as it moves east across the basin.

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

A 1008 mb low is centered over the northwestern Caribbean near
17.5N82.5W. Recent scatterometer satellite data indicate mainly
light to locally moderate NE to NE winds are occurring northwest
of this feature. Elsewhere, moderate to locally strong convection
is noted south of Hispaniola, and gusty winds and rapidly building
seas are likely in this region. Otherwise, generally light winds
and 1-3 ft seas are occurring across the rest of the basin. 

For the forecast, a weak pressure gradient across the basin will 
result in moderate or weaker trade winds, along with slight to 
moderate seas, through early next week. 

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Please see the Special Features section for information on a Gale
Warning in the western Atlantic and the potential for subtropical
development of this system.

Elsewhere, a cold front enters the central Atlantic near 31N27W
and extends to 26N37W. Recent scatterometer data indicate that
moderate to locally fresh SW winds are occurring south and east of
the front. Farther west, a surface trough extending from 26N39W to
28N46W to 27N51W is producing locally fresh S to SE winds to the
south, and moderate to locally fresh E winds to the north. 
Moderate or weaker winds and moderate seas are noted elsewhere 
over the basin. 

For the forecast west of 55W, a 1005 mb low pres centered near 
27N65W will drift through Fri then slowly move east-northeastward 
during the weekend. An area of strong to gale-force winds, and 
rough to very rough seas prevails north of the low pres and will 
expand eastward through Sun, impacting the waters mainly north of 
about 27N. The gale-force winds will likely be north of 29N 
through the end of the week. Elsewhere, a weakening cold front 
will move across the waters between Florida and 75W Fri and Fri 
night, then dissipate Sat and Sat night. 

$$
ADAMS