000
AXNT20 KNHC 011546
TWDAT 

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1815 UTC Sat Aug 1 2026

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 
1505 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

An eastern Atlantic tropical wave is along 24W, south of 19N, 
moving westward at 15 kt. Scattered moderate to isolated strong 
convection is observed from 06N to 18N and east of 33W.

A central Atlantic tropical wave is along 49W, south of 17N, 
moving westward at 15-20 kt. Scattered moderate convection is 
present from 06N to 10N between 42W and 53W.

An eastern Caribbean tropical wave is along 68W, south of 19N, 
moving westward at 15 kt. Scattered moderate convection is 
occurring from 15N to 19N between 66W and 71W.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic through the coast of
Western Sahara near 22N17W and dives southwestward to a 1010 mb 
low pres near 17N24W and then to 09N40W. The ITCZ extends from
09N40W to 07N48W and then from 06N50W to 06N55W.

...GULF OF AMERICA...

A frontal boundary and upper-level trough over the SE United
States is producing scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms
over the NE Gulf waters, while drier weather conditions are found
in the remainder of the basin. At the surface, a weak pressure
gradient supports moderate to occasionally fresh westerly winds
and seas of 2-3 ft north of 27N. Elsewhere, moderate or lighter
winds and slight seas are prevalent.

For the forecast, relatively weak high pressure will remain in control
of the weather pattern across the Gulf, promoting gentle to moderate
winds for the next several days. The exception will be fresh E to
NE winds off the northwest coast of the Yucatan peninsula nightly
through the period. Scattered showers and thunderstorms will 
continue over the NE Gulf into the upcoming week as an upper-level
trough and cold front drop southward toward the Gulf coast. Moderate
to fresh southwest winds look to develop ahead of the front over 
the far northern Gulf late this weekend. 

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

The combination of a weak surface trough moving across the NE 
Caribbean and an upper-level trough to the west support a few 
showers and isolated thunderstorms affecting the Leeward Islands 
and nearby waters. Similar activity is noted to the southwest of 
the Cayman Islands and off Costa Rica. 

The pressure gradient between the subtropical ridge situated in
the central Atlantic and lower pressures in the deep tropics
sustain moderate to fresh easterly trade winds and seas of 6-10 ft
across much of the central and eastern Caribbean Sea. Elsewhere,
moderate or weaker winds and slight to moderate seas prevail.

For the forecast, rough seas offshore Colombia will gradually subside
today. A persistent enhanced pressure gradient across the Caribbean
will favor fresh to strong trades in the central basin through this
weekend and much of next week. Fresh to strong winds will pulse 
in the Gulf of Honduras at night Tue through Thu. A tropical wave,
currently over the eastern Caribbean near 68W, is accompanied by 
showers and thunderstorms along with gusty winds. The wave will 
quickly move westward across the remainder of the basin through 
Mon night. 

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Divergence aloft associated with a couple of upper-level troughs
result in scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms over much
of the SW North Atlantic, especially west of 60W and north of 22N.
Meanwhile, a weak surface trough in the NE Caribbean is helping to
generate scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms across the
waters east of the Leeward Islands. 

The remainder of the subtropical and tropical Atlantic is 
influenced by a 1025 mb high pressure area centered near 33N50W. 
This pattern is supporting moderate to locally fresh NE to E 
winds and 4-7 ft seas across much of the basin.

For the forecast west of 55W, a high pressure ridge extending from
the central Atlantic to the Straits of Florida will lift N to 
near 28N by Sun and change little through next week. The pressure 
gradient between the ridge and a frontal boundary just NW of the 
forecast waters will continue to support fresh to strong SW winds 
along with scattered showers and thunderstorms over the majority 
of the area into the upcoming week. Fresh to strong trades will 
pulse just north of Hispaniola at night through the period. 

$$
Delgado