000
AXNT20 KNHC 040624 CCA
TWDAT 

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0615 UTC Tue Aug 4 2026

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 
0550 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A tropical wave emerged from W Africa earlier tonight. The wave
axis extends from 05N to 16N, and is moving west at approximately
at 5-10 kt. Numerous moderate convection extends from 05N to 15N 
between 14W and 23W. 

A tropical wave is in the central Atlantic extending from 05N to
19N with axis nearn 37W, moving west at approximately at 5-10 kt.
There is no convection in association with this wave at this time.

A tropical wave is in the central Caribbean with axis near 73W,
extending southward from 18N, and moving westward at 15 kt. The 
wave continues to generate scattered heavy showers over portions
of both Venezuela and Colombia.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic through the coast of
W Africa near 13N17W and continues southwestward to 10N34W to
08N41W. The ITCZ extends from 08N41W to 08N59W. Aside from the
convection associated with the tropical wave E of the Cape Verde
Islands, scattered moderate convection is from 04N to 10N between
38W and 48W.

...GULF OF AMERICA...

Recent scatterometer data confirms a center of high pressure over
the E Gulf near 24N87W, which has a pressure of 1015 mb. This is
supporting light to gentle variable winds across the Gulf waters N
of 23N and E of 94W. In the Bay of the Campeche, a surface trough
is generating some showers and supporting moderate to locally
fresh NE to E winds. Over the far western Gulf, W of 94W, the 
pressure gradient between the ridge and lower pressure along
Mexico supports moderate SE to S winds over the NW basin. Seas are
slight to 3 ft basin-wide. 
 
For the forecast, high pressure will generally dominate, 
promoting gentle winds and slight seas into the upcoming weekend. 
Pulses of fresh winds will occur off the Yucatan Peninsula each 
night, locally strong Wed night, along with moderate seas. 
Thunderstorms will prevail into Wed in the northeast basin as a 
cold front settles over the Florida Panhandle and a mid-and 
upper-level trough sets up over the region. 
 
...CARIBBEAN SEA...

The gradient between the Bermuda High, of 1025 mb located near 
34N57W, and lower pressure over the Caribbean due to the passage
of a tropical wave and low pressure over NW Colombia is supporting
fresh to strong trades over the south-central basin as indicated
by recent scatterometer data. Seas in this region are rough to 10
ft. Over the E and NW basin, moderate to fresh trades prevail
along with moderate seas. Scattered heavy showers are ongoing in
the lee side of Cuba and adjacent waters and the Gulf of Honduras.  

For the forecast, the pressure gradient between Atlantic high 
pressure and relatively lower pressure in northern South America 
will continue to support fresh to strong trades over the central 
basin into next weekend, with rough seas there. Fresh to locally 
strong winds will also pulse in the Gulf of Honduras. Fresh winds 
will pulse through the Windward Passage at times. Otherwise, 
mainly moderate or weaker winds ands seas will prevail.

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Divergence aloft supports scattered showers and isolated 
thunderstorms over the SW N Atlantic, including the Florida 
seaboard, Great Bahama Bank and Bahamas offshore waters W of 73W. 
The remainder of the basin is dominated by a broad subtropical ridge.

Fresh to locally strong SW winds are offshore NE Florida ahead of a 
weak frontal boundary N of the area and a prefrontal trough. 
Moderate to fresh trades are ongoing across the offshores between 
55W and 65W as well as off northern Hispaniola. In the far NE 
Atlantic, fresh to strong N-NE winds and moderate to locally rough 
seas are evident off Morocco and in the water passages of the Canary 
Islands. Elsewhere, gentle to moderate winds and moderate seas are 
prevalent.

For the forecast west of 55W, fresh to locally strong SW winds 
offshore NE Florida will continue tonight before diminishing as 
high pressure builds west toward the region. An upper-level trough
along the eastern coast of U.S. will prolong scattered 
thunderstorms offshore Florida and in the vicinity of the Bahamas 
early this week. Elsewhere, locally strong trades will continue to
pulse each night offshore Hispaniola. A low level trough will 
likely bring fresh to locally strong winds and locally rough seas 
from east to west across the central waters by mid-week, reaching 
the NW waters by the end of the week. 

$$
Ramos