000
AXNT20 KNHC 290456
TWDAT 

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0615 UTC Wed Jul 29 2026

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 
0500 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A tropical wave is analyzed in the far E Atlantic with axis near 
19W, extending from 04N to 19N, and moving westward around 10 kt. 
Scattered moderate convection is noted from 04N to 10N between 15W
and 21W.

A tropical wave is in the central Atlantic with axis near 39W, 
extending from 06N to 15N, and moving westward at around 15-20 
kt. Scattered showers are noted near the wave axis.

A tropical wave is over the E Caribbean with axis near 65W, 
extending from 10N to 19N or from northern Venezuela to near the
Anegada Passage, and is moving westward at around 10-15 kt. No 
significant convection is depicted at the moment in association 
with this wave. 

A tropical wave is in the WW Caribbean with axis along 85W, south
of 20N and into the far eastern Tropical Pacific Ocean, and is
moving westward at around 10 kt. Scattered moderate convection is
seen S of 18N and W of 81W.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic near the coast of
Mauritania at 19N16W and continues to 07N45W. The ITCZ begins 
near 07N45W and continues to 07.5N57W. Other than the convection 
associated with the tropical waves as described above, a small 
cluster of scattered moderate convection is noted from 06N to 09N
between 42W and 48W.

...GULF OF AMERICA...

A surface trough is analyzed from north of Tampa Bay into the NE
Gulf, with scattered showers near the trough axis. The remainder
of the Gulf is under the influence of a weak 1013 mb high 
centered near 26N92W, which is supporting light to gentle 
anticyclonic winds from the Yucatan Channel to the high to near 
Galveston Bay, Texas. Moderate anticyclonic winds are closer to 
all coastal locations around the periphery of the high. Seas are 
mainly 1 to 3 ft, except locally higher near NE Mexico and SE 
Texas. 

For the forecast, a surface ridge will remain in control of the 
weather pattern across the Gulf region promoting gentle to 
moderate winds for the next several days. The exception will be 
fresh NE winds off the northwest coast of the Yucatan peninsula 
nightly into the weekend. Scattered showers and thunderstorms will
continue during the next couple of days over the NE Gulf due to 
the presence of a frontal boundary over north-central Florida. 

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

Please refer to the TROPICAL WAVES section above for information
on associated convection. Scattered thunderstorms are also occurring
nearshore western Jamaica.

The pressure gradient between relatively low pressure over South 
America and the ridge is supporting fresh to locally strong 
trades over the central to SW Caribbean along with 7 to 10 ft 
seas. Winds are moderate to fresh across the eastern Caribbean and
remainder of the SW Caribbean, where seas are moderate. Gentle to
moderate or weaker winds prevail across the remainder of basin, 
with slight to moderate seas.

For the forecast, the aerial extent and strength of the trade 
winds will increase from late Wed into Thu as the pressure 
gradient between the Atlantic ridge and the Colombian Low 
increases. By that time, expect fresh to strong winds and moderate
to rough seas across most of the eastern and central Caribbean, 
with the strongest winds and highest seas offshore Colombia. Fresh
to strong winds are expected in the Gulf of Honduras nightly from
Wed through Fri. 

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A frontal trough reaches from north of the discussion waters
through 31N71W to near Cape Canaveral, Florida. Fresh to locally 
strong SW winds are found north of 27N and east of the boundary to
near 65W, along with 5-8 ft seas. Nearby scattered moderate 
convection is found east of the trough to near 65W to the north of
24N. A 1024 mb high pressure near 30N45W and an associated ridge 
dominate the remainder of the subtropical Atlantic waters. 
Moderate to fresh trades can be found north of the monsoon trough 
and ITCZ to about 22N around the high, with moderate to locally 
fresh return flow west of 55W and elsewhere southeast of the 
frontal trough. Fresh to locally strong winds are near Africa to 
the Canary Islands from 17N to 27N to the east of 20W. Moderate 
or weaker winds and moderate seas dominate the remainder of the 
waters.

For the forecast west of 55W, the Bermuda High will maintain a 
ridge farther south than usual, along 24N-25N, through Fri. This, 
in combination with a stationary frontal boundary off NE Florida, 
will force fresh to strong SW winds with scattered showers and 
thunderstorms north of 27N and west of 65W for the next several 
days. Fresh to strong trades will develop just north of Hispaniola
and Puerto Rico from Wed through Sat.

$$
Adams