055 
AXNT20 KNHC 261656
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1815 UTC Sun Apr 26 2026

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 
1640 UTC.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic through the coast of
Guinea-Bissau near 11.5N15.5W and extends S then SW to 03N22W to 
02N40W. The ITCZ continues from 02N41W to 02.5N47W to the coast of
Brazil near 02.5N51W. Scattered to locally numerous moderate to 
strong convection is noted from 01N to 06N between 10W and 22W.
Scattered to locally numerous moderate isolated strong convection
is noted S of 04N between 22W and 39W. 

...GULF OF AMERICA...

Weak surface ridging extends from the western Atlantic into the eastern
Gulf this morning, inhibited by two weak surface troughs on either
side of N Florida. A weak 1013 mb high is centered south of the
western Florida Panhandle. Broad low pressure dominates the 
western half of the basin. This is allowing the continuation of 
gentle to moderate SE winds W of 90W and off the northern coast 
of the Yucatan Peninsula, and light to gentle winds elsewhere. 
Slight seas prevail basin-wide, with peak seas to 5 ft well
offshore the NW coast of the Yucatan Peninsula. S cluster of
scattered to numerous moderate to strong convection is moving
southeastward across SE Louisiana, SE Mississippi, and SW Alabama,
and into the local coastal waters. Dense morning fog restricting 
visibilities across large portions of the north-central and 
northwestern Gulf waters has burned off and thinned out this 
morning, but with still a few offshore oil platforms reporting 
visibility's below 3 nm at present.

For the forecast, a ridge across the E Gulf waters, combined with
a surface trough along Mexico reaching offshore Veracruz, will 
support moderate to fresh SE winds and moderate seas over the 
western half of the Gulf, and gentle to moderate winds with slight
to moderate seas over the eastern part of the basin through Thu. 
In addition, a diurnal trough will pulse moderate to fresh winds 
off the Yucatan Peninsula during the evenings through Thu night. 
Looking ahead, a cold front will enter the northern Gulf waters
Wed night into Thu.

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

The remnants of an old frontal boundary linger this morning across
the Atlantic waters N of the Greater Antilles, in the form of a 
trough meandering from 22N59W to eastern Cuba. This feature 
combined with a front moving into the NW Atlantic waters is 
producing a weak pressure gradient across much of the Caribbean, 
which is supporting gentle to moderate E to SE winds over the SE 
basin and light to gentle elsewhere, but the NW Caribbean W of 84W
and across the Gulf of Honduras, where moderate to locally fresh 
winds are ongoing due to surface high pressure over the E Gulf of 
America. Slight seas prevail across the basin, except offshore 
Belize, the Yucatan Peninsula and the Gulf of Honduras where seas 
are moderate to 4 ft. Moderate to locally fresh SE winds are 
spreading across the Lesser Antilles and into the adjacent 
Caribbean waters, producing a zone of convergence and scattered 
moderate isolated strong convection from near Guadeloupe S-SW and 
inland across central Venezuela near 66W. 

For the forecast, the surface trough meandering across the
Atlantic water north of the Greater Antilles will contribute to 
a weaker than usual pressure gradient across the central and 
eastern Caribbean Sea into Mon, resulting in mainly moderate or 
weaker winds and slight to moderate seas. Except in the Gulf of 
Honduras where moderate to fresh E winds and moderate seas are 
expected. Winds are forecast to reach moderate to fresh speeds 
over the east and central Caribbean Mon night through Thu as high 
pressure builds again N of the area, behind a cold front moving 
across the western Atlantic.

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A weakening cold front extends from 31N46W to 28N52W then becomes
stationary to 31N65W, while a 1020 mb high center is north of the
front near 33N60W. Weak high pressure also prevail E of the front
between 20W and 40W, from 30N to 40N. The associated pressure
gradient between the front and the ridge to the E is supporting 
moderate to fresh SW winds N of 26N between 40W and 46W, with seas
of 5 to 7 ft, as well as triggering some showers over those 
central subtropical Atlantic waters. A surface trough is ahead of
the front from 22N52W to 29N45W. Moderate westerly winds prevail 
between the front and this trough, to the N of 28N, where seas are
6 to 8 ft in NW swell. Another surface trough, the remnants of an
old front lingering for days across the area, meanders from 
22N59W to eastern Cuba, and is supporting scattered moderate 
convection from 21N to 26N between 55W and the southern Bahamas. 
Surface ridging dominates elsewhere E of the front, as described 
above, supporting moderate or weaker winds with slight to moderate
seas.

For the forecast west of 55W, the old frontal trough lingering N
of the Greater Antilles will remain in place through today and 
gradually dissipate by Mon. A frontal boundary over the NE waters 
will continue to support moderate northerly winds and moderate to 
rough seas through today. Another cold front is forecast to enter 
the waters off NE Florida by tonight, extend from near Bermuda to 
South Florida by Mon night, and from 31N60W to the NW Bahamas by 
Tue night before dissipating. Moderate to fresh northerly winds 
and moderate to rough seas are expected N of 27N in the wake of 
the front through Mon night. 

$$
Stripling