000
AXNT20 KNHC 280614
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0615 UTC Tue Jul 28 2026

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 
0550 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A tropical wave is in the E Atlantic with axis near 33W, extending
from 08N to 15N, and moving westward at around 15-20 kt. Only
isolated showers are associated with this wave.

A tropical wave is E of the Lesser Antilles with axis near 60W,
extending from 09N to 19N, and moving westward at around 15 kt. 
There is no convection associated with the wave at this time.

A tropical wave is in the SW Caribbean with axis near 82W, from 
10N to 18N, and moving westward at around 10-15 kt. Scattered 
moderate isolated strong convection is noted from 09N to 14N 
between 79W and 83W.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic near 14N16W and continues 
to 11N27W to 1015 mb low pressure near 09N36W to 09N39W. The ITCZ
begins near 09N39W and continues to 09N51W to 08N61W. Scattered 
moderate convection is present offshore Africa, from 05N to 12N 
between Africa and 17W. Similar convection is from 06N to 10N
between 36W and 45W. 

...GULF OF AMERICA...

Scattered moderate convection is ongoing over the from the coastal
waters of Pensacola to the Tampa Bay area associated with a
surface trough. Ahead of the trough the tail of a weak cold front
moves across central Florida. The remainder Gulf is under the
influence of a 1014 mb high centered near 26N91W, which is
supporting light to gentle variable winds over the central and SE
basin along with slight seas. Moderate to fresh NE to E winds
prevail in the Bay of Campeche associated with a surface trough.
Moderate to fresh SE to S winds are also W of 95W while moderate
or weaker NW winds are over the NE Gulf N of 28N. 

For the forecast, high pressure will remain over the central Gulf
to promote generally quiescent marine conditions for the next 
several days. The exception will be fresh NE winds off the 
northwest coast of the Yucatan peninsula nightly through the 
weekend. Scattered showers and thunderstorms will continue during 
the next couple of days over the NE Gulf due to an approaching 
weak cold front across the SE U.S. 

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

Please refer to the TROPICAL WAVES section above for information
on any convection.

Atlantic ridging dominates north of the basin with 1008 mb low 
pressure analyzed just N of Panama near 10N79W. The pressure 
gradient between the two supports moderate to fresh trades over the
central Caribbean along with 5 to 7 ft seas. Winds are moderate 
or weaker across the remainder of basin, with slight to moderate 
seas.

For the forecast, the increasing pressure gradient between the 
Colombian Low and western Atlantic high pressure along 25N-26N 
will boost trade winds to strong over the S central Caribbean 
tonight through the end of the week. Trade winds over the Gulf of 
Honduras will increase to fresh beginning Wednesday night. A 
tropical wave entering the E Caribbean tonight will enhance 
showers and thunderstorms across the E and NE Caribbean tonight 
and tomorrow. 

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A weak cold front is moving across the SW N Atlantic waters from
31N74W SW to central coastal Florida near 28N80W. Scattered heavy
showers and tstms are ahead of this boundary, affecting the
northern offshore waters N of 27N between 66W and 78W. The Azores
High dominates the remainder subtropical Atlantic waters and
provides moderate or weaker winds and moderate seas. The gradient
of pressure between the ridge and the front over the SW waters
supports moderate to fresh SSW winds W of 60W. 

For the forecast west of 55W, the Bermuda High will maintain a 
ridge farther south than usual - near 25N - through Fri. This in 
combination with a stationary front offshore of the Carolinas will
force fresh to strong SW winds with scattered showers and 
thunderstorms north of 27N and west of 63W for the next several 
days. Fresh to locally strong trades will develop just north of 
Hispaniola and Puerto Rico from Wed through the weekend.

$$
Ramos