272 
AXNT20 KNHC 020336
TWDAT 

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0615 UTC Mon Nov 2 2026

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 
0300 UTC.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough reaches the Atlantic through the coast of
Africa near 16N17W, and continues westward to 16N23W, where it 
transitions to the ITCZ. The ITCZ then continues to 08N59W. 
Scattered moderate and isolated strong convection is noted from 
06N to 10N between 15W and 50W.

...GULF OF AMERICA...

An upper-level trough is supporting scattered to numerous 
convection east of 88W. This activity is capable of producing 
strong gusty winds and heavy rainfall. Elsewhere, fresh to strong 
east winds are over the NE Gulf along with seas of 4 to 6 ft. 
Light to gentle NE winds, and seas of 2-4 ft, prevail elsewhere.

For the forecast, the pressure gradient between high pressure over the
eastern U.S. and lower pressure south of the area will maintain
fresh NE to E winds and moderate seas through the NE Gulf
through Mon night. A cold front will reach along the Texas coast 
Tue afternoon, and out over the NW Gulf Tue night into early
Wed, followed by moderate to fresh northwest to north winds. The 
front will weaken as it slowly moves across the basin through Thu,
then across Florida Thu night into Fri. In its wake, weak high 
pressure will settle in over the region through Fri night.

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

Moderate to fresh trades and seas of 4 to 6 ft prevails across 
the central and eastern Caribbean. Gentle to moderate winds, and
seas of 2-4 ft, prevail elsewhere. 
  
For the forecast, moderate to fresh trades along with moderate 
seas over the central and eastern Caribbean will continue through 
Tue night. The pressure gradient will relax starting Mon night as 
broad low pressure forms north of the area, leading to overall 
weaker winds and diminishing seas for the remainder of the week.

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A coastal trough reaches from near Charleston, South Carolina to
Jacksonville, Florida. Strong to near-gale force winds prevail
north of 27N and west of 70W, associated with a tight gradient
between the trough and 1032 mb high pressure centered over
Virginia. A recent altimeter pass confirmed rough seas of 8-10 ft
in this area. Recent scatterometer satellite data shows fresh to
strong NE to E winds north of 25N and west of 55W, north of a  
cold front that extends from near 31N42W southwestward to 28N50W 
becomes stationary to 24N65W, and continues as a trough through 
the central Bahamas. Scattered moderate and isolated strong 
convection is along this front. Farther east, a trough extends
from 1014 mb low pressure near 32N25W to 26N23W to 22N30W. Fresh
NW winds and seas to 8 ft prevail west of the front to 30W.
Elsewhere, gentle to moderate NE to E winds and 4-6 ft seas
persist.  

For the forecast west of 55W, the stationary front will remain in
place through Tue night as high pressure builds across the 
northern and central waters. The resulting pressure gradient will 
lead to widespread fresh to strong northeast to east winds and 
rough seas to around 10 ft north of about 27N and west of 60W. 
Broad low pressure may gradually develop along the western edge of
the stationary front, and this may cause the strong winds and 
rough seas to spread eastward toward mid-week, impacting waters 
mainly N of 28N. The next cold front is forecast to move off 
Florida late Thu night. 

$$
Christensen