000
AXNT20 KNHC 260014
TWDAT 

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0015 UTC Mon Oct 26 2026

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2345 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Atlantic Gale Warning: A tightening pressure gradient will 
continue to develop across the western and central offshore zones
tonight as strong high pressure builds southward over the 
western Atlantic, and low pressure deepens ENE of the central 
Bahamas along a stationary front that extends from 30N58W to 
31N61W to low pressure near 29N66W 1010 mb, and continues to 
28N70W to 26N75W and to 24N80.5W.  This setup is inducing 
widespread strong to gale- force NE to E winds and very rough 
seas building to 20 ft. Gale-force winds to 40 kt prevail north 
of 27N between 61.5N and 72.5W. Strong to gale winds north of 
27N between 61W and 80W will continue through early Mon morning.
The portion of the front east of 70W is expected to begin to 
lift northward tonight through Mon morning, and stall from near 
Bermuda to W Cuba Mon and Mon night, then drift southeastward Tue
through Wed night. Strong high pressure across the eastern U.S. 
will shift slowly eastward and across the waters east of northern
Florida during this time, and maintain fresh to strong winds and
rough to very rough seas in NE swell to the north of the front 
through the period. Mariners are urged to remain alert to these 
hazardous marine conditions, and take the necessary precautions 
to avoid these affected areas. Please, see the latest NWS High 
Seas Forecast issued by the National Hurricane Center at website 
https:www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml for further details. 

Heavy Rainfall in the Northern Caribbean: A mid to upper-level 
trough over Florida, the northwestern Caribbean and the Bahamas 
combined with abundant tropical moisture will support periods of 
heavy rain over eastern Cuba, Hispaniola, Jamaica, the southern 
Bahamas, and the Turks and Caicos Islands through Mon. Latest 
model guidance indicates that the trough will begin to weaken 
and meander northward. The main areas that are expected to be 
impacted by abundant tropical moisture and heavy rainfall will 
then shift to north and east of Cuba over the southern Bahamas, 
Turks and Caicos, the Windward Passage and Hispaniola. The heavy 
rainfall will raise concerns for dangerous and life-threatening 
flash flooding. Please refer to your local weather services and 
the International Desk at the Weather Prediction Center for more 
information.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough axis extends from the coast of Africa near 
15N17W southwestward to 07N31W. The ITCZ axis extends from 07N45W 
to 10N60W. Scattered moderate convection is within 60 nm of
06N22N and within 60 nm 10N27W.

...GULF OF AMERICA...

A strong ridge extends over the eastern United States and into 
the central Gulf, and is supporting fresh to strong northeast to
east winds across most of the eastern Gulf, and gentle to 
moderate winds across the western Gulf along with seas of 6 to 9 
ft. Elsewhere, mainly moderate winds prevail along seas 4 to 6 
ft.

For the forecast, a tight pressure gradient between the high 
pressure and a stationary front across the NW Bahamas and into 
the eastern Florida Straits will maintain fresh to strong NE 
winds and rough seas over the eastern Gulf, including the Straits 
of Florida through Wed. 

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

Please see the Special Features section above for information
about the potential for heavy rainfall over eastern Cuba, 
Hispaniola, and Jamaica, the Turks and Caicos and locations farther
east through the early part of the upcoming week.

A couple of troughs extend southward from the western Atlantic
into the central Caribbean: one along 71W north of 16N, and the 
other along 76.5W north 16N. Scattered showers and thunderstorms 
are between these troughs north of 16N. This activity is being 
supported by upper-level divergence present east of a broad mid to 
upper-level trough that covers the western Caribbean. Trades across 
the northwestern and southwestern Caribbean are of moderate to fresh 
speeds while northeast to east winds of similar speeds are east of 
74W. Seas across the basin are mostly slight to moderate.

For the forecast, the aforementioned mid to upper-level trough 
will slowly shift eastward through Tue and support scattered to 
numerous showers and thunderstorms over the central Caribbean and
Windward Passage. Meanwhile, a broad surface trough extends from
the central Bahamas southward across eastern Cuba to a 1009 mb 
low north of Jamaica near 19.5N76.5W, continuing to the SW 
Caribbean, and will drift eastward through Tue. Strong high 
pressure across the eastern U.S. will continue to build southward
across Florida and the Gulf of America through early next week, 
leading to moderate to fresh N winds and moderate seas across the
western Caribbean W of the trough through late Tue. Expect rough
seas in large N swell across the Yucatan Channel late tonight 
through early Tue. Otherwise, moderate to fresh east to southeast
winds in the E Caribbean will diminish to gentle to moderate 
speeds by Mon evening. 

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Please see the Special Features section above for information
about a Gale Warning over the western Atlantic, and on heavy
rainfall expected for the southern Bahamas, the Turks and Caicos 
Islands, the Windward Passage, and Hispaniola.

A stationary front extends from near 30N58W to 31N61W to low 
pressure near 29N66W 1010 mb, and continues to 28N70W to 26N75W and 
to 24N80.5W. A trough then extends southward from this low to the 
Hispaniola adjacent waters. Another trough extends from eastern Cuba 
to a 1009 mb low just south of eastern Cuba near 19N76W. These 
features are supporting scattered moderate convection north of 20N 
and between 58W and 74W. Widespread strong to gale-force winds and 
rough seas are north of the front and along the trough or across 
many of the offshores north of about of 27N. Otherwise, the Azores 
high pressure ridge dominates the remainder Atlantic subtropical 
waters, providing mainly moderate or weaker winds and moderate seas, 
except for fresh to strong winds funneling through the Canary 
Islands and west of Cape Verde where rough seas are ongoing.

For the forecast west of 55W, a large area of strong to gale- 
force NE to E winds will continue through near midnight across 
the western and central offshore zones, along and N of a 
stationary front extending from 31N60W to the NW Bahamas near 
25N78W to the eastern Straits of Florida. Very rough seas to 20 
ft are expected N of the front between 67W and 74W. The portion 
of the front E of 70W is expected to begin to lift northward 
tonight through Mon morning, and stall from near Bermuda to W 
Cuba Mon and Mon night, then drift southeastward Tue through Wed 
night. Strong high pressure across the eastern U.S. will shift 
slowly eastward and into the NW Atlantic during this time, and 
maintain fresh to strong winds and rough to very rough seas in NE
swell to the north of the front through the period. Mariners are
urged to remain alert to these hazardous marine conditions, and 
take the necessary precautions to avoid these affected areas.


$$
Aguirre