000
AXNT20 KNHC 102116
TWDAT 

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0015 UTC Thu Jun 11 2026

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 
2115 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

The axis of a tropical wave is near 44W, S of 15N, moving west at
10 to 15 kt. Scattered moderate convection is noted from 05N to
08N between 42W and 47W.

The axis of a tropical wave is near 55W, S of 15N, moving 
westward at around 15 kt. Scattered moderate convection is 
noted S of 10N between 53W and 60W.

The axis of a tropical wave is near 63W, S of 18N, moving 
westward at 10 to 15 kt. Scattered moderate convection is noted S
of 12N between 60W and 62W.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough extends off the coast of Africa near 11N16W 
and extends SW to 06N30W. The ITCZ extends from 06N30W to 04N41W.
Scattered moderate to strong convection is noted from 02N to 10N
between 10W and 30W.

...GULF OF AMERICA...

A surface trough is across the Yucatan Peninsula, supporting 
scattered moderate and isolated strong convection near the 
Yucatan Channel as well as over the Yucatan peninsula. Another 
surface trough is over the NE Gulf. Gentle to moderate winds, and
seas of 3-5 ft prevail across most of the Gulf, except 2-3 ft over
the NE Gulf. 

For the forecast, a modest pressure gradient will support gentle 
to moderate E to SE winds over the eastern and north- central Gulf
into early next week. A trough or weak low pressure center may 
emerge from the Yucatan Peninsula into the Bay of Campeche on Thu 
night and then track slowly northwestward through the weekend.
This feature will enhance the pressure gradient, resulting in 
fresh to strong SE winds across the south-central and west- 
central Gulf. Scattered to numerous thunderstorms and rough seas 
are also expected across the same area into Sun. 

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

The pressure gradient between high pressure N of the area, the
eastern north Pacific monsoon trough, and broad low pressure
around TD Cristina is supporting fresh to locally strong winds 
over central and western Caribbean. Seas over these waters are in 
the 4-7 ft range. Over the eastern Caribbean, gentle to moderate 
winds and seas of 3-5 ft prevail. 

For the forecast, fresh to strong E to SE winds with moderate to 
rough seas will prevail from the south-central to northwestern 
basin into early week. During the weekend, the high over the 
western Atlantic is expected to strengthen further, and cause 
fresh E trades to expand northward into the north-central basin.

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A weak frontal boundary extends from 31N59W across the northern
waters to near 30N77W. A surface trough is found S of the front
from 31N56W to 23N68W, with a weak 1017 mb surface low along the 
trough near 24N65W. Scattered moderate convection is NE of the low
along the trough. High pressure prevails across the remainder of
the waters N of 20N, anchored by a 1029 mb high centered near
39N28W. Light to gentle winds, and seas of 4-6 ft, prevail over
the waters N of 20N and W of 55W. Fresh to strong winds, and seas
of 6-8 ft are noted N of 20N and E of 23W. Elsewhere, light to
gentle winds, and moderate seas, prevail. 

For the forecast west of 55W,  The low will dissipate as it moves
northeastward along the trough through Thu. The frontal boundary 
will shift northward Thu ahead of the weak low pressure. The 
Atlantic ridge will then build across the region late Thu through 
Fri along roughly 25N. This pattern will support moderate to 
fresh E to SE winds north of Hispaniola at night from Fri night 
through Sun night. 

$$
AL