000
AXNT20 KNHC 251734
TWDAT 

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1815 UTC Thu Jun 25 2026

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 
1700 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Caribbean Gale Warning:
A tight pressure gradient between an Atlantic Ridge and the 
Colombian Low will cause trade winds off Colombia to peak at gale-
force Fri night and early Sat morning. Seas under these winds are
expected to range between 12 and 15 ft. Please refer to High Seas
and Offshore Waters Forecasts issued by the National Hurricane 
Center at websites:
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml and
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/marine/offshores.php for more
information.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A far eastern Atlantic tropical wave is near 37W from 16N 
southward, and moving westward at 15-20 kt. Scattered moderate 
convection is observed from 01N to 08N between 33W and 39W. 

A eastern Caribbean tropical wave is near 70W from eastern 
Dominican Republic southward into western Venezuela. Scattered 
moderate convection is seen in the northeastern Caribbean, 
including waters south of the Dominican Republic, Mona Passage,
and Puerto Rico.

A western Caribbean tropical wave is near 82W from near the
Cayman Islands southward into western Panama. It is moving
westward around 5-10 kt. Scattered showers and isolated
thunderstorms are noted in the western Caribbean W of 80W and S of
20N, including the Gulf of Honduras.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic near 12N16W and continues
southwestward to 07N19W. The ITCZ then continues from 07N19W to
05N25W to 07N33W, where it is broken by a tropical wave. The ITCZ
then resumes from 05N38W to 04N52W. In addition to the convection
described in the Tropical Waves section above, scattered moderate
convection is ongoing from 02N to 10N between 15W and 25W, as well
as from 03N to 08N between 39W and 52W.

...GULF OF AMERICA...

A stationary front runs from near the mouth of the Mississippi
River to the Big Bend of Florida, and is enhancing scattered
moderate convection N of 28N and E of 91W. A surface trough in the
SW Gulf also appears to enhance scattered moderate convection S
of 23N and W of 94W. Aside from convection, gentle to moderate
or weaker E to SE winds and slight seas prevail across much of 
the Gulf.

For the forecast, a weakening stationary front will trigger 
scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms over the north- 
central and northeastern Gulf today. Otherwise, a ridge will 
continue to dominate the Gulf region into early next week. Gentle 
to moderate anticyclonic winds will generally prevail across the 
basin during this time, except for fresh to locally strong NE to E
winds pulsing off the northwestern Yucatan Peninsula nightly, and
moderate to fresh SE winds across the far northwestern Gulf 
through the weekend. Looking ahead, a weak frontal boundary will 
sink southward into the east-central Gulf Mon night and Tue. 

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

Please read the Special Features section about an upcoming Gale
Warning, and please refer to the Tropical Waves section for
details on convection in the basin. 

The pressure gradient between ridging across much of the Atlantic
and the Colombia Low supports fresh to strong trades across much
of the central Caribbean, as well as seas of 9-12 ft in the 
south-central to SW Caribbean. Moderate to fresh trades and
moderate seas prevail in the E Caribbean, with gentle to moderate
or weaker winds and 2-5 ft seas elsewhere.

For the forecast, the pressure gradient between the Atlantic 
ridge and the Colombian low will support fresh to strong trade 
winds, and rough to very rough seas in the central Caribbean 
through Sat morning. Expect winds at near-gale force offshore of 
Colombia and in the Gulf of Venezuela during the nighttime and 
early morning hours. On Fri night and early Sat morning, winds off
Colombia will peak at gale-force. Pulsing fresh to strong winds 
and moderate to locally rough seas are expected in the Gulf of 
Honduras nightly through Sat night. Fresh trades with rough seas 
should persist east of the Lesser Antilles through midday today, 
diminishing to moderate winds and seas thereafter through Sun. 

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A stationary front extends across the waters offshore SE GA/NE FL
to near Jacksonville, FL. An upper level shortwave over the region
is helping to enhance showers and thunderstorms N of the Bahamas.
An upper level low S of Bermuda is also enhancing showers and
thunderstorms in the region. The remainder of the Atlantic is
dominated by ridging, supporting moderate to fresh trades and
moderate seas across much of the basin. 

For the forecast west of 55W, a weakening stationary front will 
trigger some showers and thunderstorms with gusty winds east of 
northeastern Florida through this evening. Otherwise, a ridge will
continue to dominate the forecast area through the weekend. Fresh
to strong easterly winds with locally rough seas are expected 
near the northern coasts of Hispaniola and Puerto Rico each late 
afternoon and night through Fri night. Moderate to locally fresh 
trade winds and moderate seas are expected south of 22N through 
Fri. A north-to- south aligned surface trough across the central 
Atlantic will shift westward across the region early Fri through 
late Sat, reaching 70W Sun morning. This will weaken the ridge and
lead to diminishing winds. Looking ahead, a weak cold front will 
sink southward into the waters off northeastern Florida Mon night.

$$
Adams