000
AXNT20 KNHC 071653
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1815 UTC Sun Jun 7 2026

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 
1653 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A tropical wave is along 27W, south of 12N, moving westward at 
15 to 20 kt. A cluster of moderate to isolated strong convection 
is observed where the wave meets the monsoon trough, from 04N to 
07N between 23W and 29W.

A tropical wave is along 37.5W, south of 16.5N, moving westward 
at around 15 kt. A few showers are noted on either side of the 
wave axis.

A tropical wave is over the eastern Caribbean along 65W, south of
18N, moving westward at 15 to 20 kt. Convection is limited. 

A tropical wave is in the central Caribbean Sea near 71W, south 
of 18N, moving westward at around 15 kt. The wave is enhancing 
convection over portions of western Venezuela, including the Lake 
Maracaibo area.

A tropical wave is in the western Caribbean Sea along 85.5W, 
south of 20N to across western Panama and into the eastern 
Pacific Ocean, slowly moving around 5 kt. Most of the convection
related to this wave is over the EPAC. 

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic through the coast of W
Africa near 14N17W, and continues southwestward to 04N30W. The 
ITCZ extends from 04N30W to the coast of Brazil near 02N49W. 
Other than the convection associated with two tropical waves, a 
large area of moderate to isolated strong convection is observed 
near the coast of W Africa, covering the waters from 01N to 11.5N
and east of 21W. 

...GULF OF AMERICA...

High pressure located over the western Atlantic just E of Bermuda
extends a ridge across the SE of United States, including 
Florida, into the Gulf region. This system is supporting gentle to
moderate E to SE winds east of 89W, along with seas 1 to 4 ft. 
While moderate to locally fresh SE winds along seas 4 to 6 ft 
prevail west of 89W. Clusters of moderate to strong convection are
depicted west of 94W. 

For the forecast, a ridge will continue to dominate the Gulf 
region supporting gentle to moderate E to SE winds over the 
eastern Gulf and moderate to fresh SE to S winds over the western 
Gulf through Mon. Winds will be easterly at mostly fresh speeds 
across most of the western and central Gulf S of 26N through 
midweek. The exception will be off the Yucatan Peninsula, where a 
diurnal trough will support moderate winds to pulse to fresh, 
occasionally strong, during the evenings through Wed. Slight to 
moderate seas will occur with these winds. For late in the week, a
possible trough, or low pressure may shift northward from the 
Yucatan Peninsula into the south-central Gulf of America 
accompanied by numerous showers and thunderstorms along with fresh
to strong winds and building seas.

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

Three tropical waves are moving westward across the Caribbean Sea.
Please see the Tropical Waves section above for more details, 
including any associated significant convection. 

Otherwise, high pressure north of the area centered just E of 
Bermuda, combined with lower pressures across South America
supports moderate to locally fresh E to SE trade winds and 
moderate seas across the majority of the basin, with the exception
of the SW Caribbean where light to gentle winds are noted. An 
upper level trough over the central Caribbean is helping to induce
scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms over the Windward
Passage, between Haiti and Jamaica, and over the central 
Caribbean south of 17N between 68W and 82W. Elsewhere, patches of
low level clouds, embedded in the trade wind flow, are noted 
producing isolated to scattered passing showers.

For the forecast, moderate to trade winds and moderate seas will 
persist across the Caribbean today as Atlantic high pressure 
weakens and shifts eastward. Winds will begin to increase again 
over the central Caribbean late tonight into Mon, and over the NW 
part of the basin Mon night into Tue as the pressure gradient 
tightens between the Atlantic high pressure and a broad area of 
low pressure located over the eastern Pacific offshore of Central 
America. Looking ahead, fresh to strong SE winds may be present in
the northwestern Caribbean Wed through Thu as a possible trough, 
or low pressure shifts northward from the Yucatan Peninsula into 
the south-central Gulf of America.

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Two tropical waves are moving westward between the western coast 
of Africa and the Lesser Antilles. Please refer to the Tropical 
Waves section for more details including any related significant 
convection.

A surface trough, remnants of an old frontal boundary, extends from
near 31N56W to the central Bahamas into eastern Cuba. Scattered 
to numerous showers, with embedded thunderstorms, are along and 
ahead of this trough, affecting the SE Bahamas and the Turks and 
Caicos Islands. A 1022 mb high pressure located just E of Bermuda 
follows this trough. The remainder of the Atlantic forecast area 
is dominated by a broad subtropical ridge, anchored by a 1031 mb 
high pressure situated SW of the Azores near 34N33W. Under the 
influence of this system, a gentle to moderate E to SE flow is 
seen N of 20N E of the trough to about 44W. Fresh to locally 
strong NE to E winds and rough seas are found north of 20N and 
east of 44W, including the Canary Islands. The strongest winds are
between the islands. Moderate to fresh trades and moderate seas 
are elsewhere S of 20N between the coast of Africa and the Lesser 
Antilles.

For the forecast west of 55W, the surface trough will remain 
nearly stationary through Mon night. A weak cold front will move 
into the forecast north-central waters Tue, then stall near 27N 
Tue through Wed, and gradually dissipate by Thu. High pressure 
will follow the front. It will be centered near Bermuda by Wed, 
then move eastward by Thu. This weather pattern will generally 
support gentle to moderate winds and moderate seas through 
midweek, except for moderate to fresh trades S of 22N between the 
southeastern Bahamas and Hispaniola and westward to the waters 
between the Bahamas and Cuba.


$$
KRV