000
AXNT20 KNHC 050356
TWDAT 

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0615 UTC Thu Nov 5 2026

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 
0300 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Western Atlantic Gale Warning: A recent scatterometer satellite
pass confirmed winds to gale force south of Bermuda, between 1024
mb high pressure centered north of Bermuda near 37N65W, and 1008
mb low pressure near 26N64W. Gale-force winds are noted near
30N65W. Strong to near-gale force winds are noted from 27N to 31N
between 55W and 70W, with associated seas ranging from 8 ft to 12
ft. Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms are also active
in this area. Environmental conditions could support this 
system gradually acquiring subtropical characteristics through this 
weekend while it moves slowly eastward over the western and central 
subtropical Atlantic. Chances of this development remain low
through 48 hours, and medium through the next seven days.
Regardless of such development, the area of winds and seas will
expand as the low shifts eastward, with gale force wind and very
rough seas will expand eastward north of 25N reaching as far east
as 45W by early Mon. Winds and seas start to diminish thereafter,
as environmental conditions are forecast to become unfavorable 
for further development. Please read the latest High Seas 
Forecast issued by the National Hurricane Center at website: 
https://nhc.noaa.gov/text/HSFAT2.html

Heavy Precipitation across Central America: Deep-layer troughing 
over the northwestern Caribbean extends southwestward across
northern portions of Central America and into the tropical
eastern Pacific. This feature will interact with enhanced low- 
level moisture and onshore flow south of the monsoon trough over
the next several days. This will favor heavy precipitation 
developing across Central America starting today and lasting 
through at least Friday. The heaviest precipitation is expected 
across Nicaragua and Costa Rica, with the bulk of precipitation 
occurring through Thursday. Heavy rainfall may lead to life- 
threatening flash flooding and landslides. Please refer to your 
local weather agency and the International Desk at the Weather 
Prediction Center for more details.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough reaches the Atlantic from 11N15W to 09N18W. 
The ITCZ extends from 09N18W to 08N35W to 10N55W. Scattered to 
numerous moderate convection is noted from 04N to 10N between 25W
and 45W.

...GULF OF AMERICA...

A stationary front reaches from Gulfport, MS to Tampico, Mexico.
1015 mb high pressure is over the eastern and central Gulf, 
centered near 25N88W. This pattern is supporting light breezes and
1-3 ft seas across the basin.

For the forecast, a frontal boundary extends across the NW Gulf. The
front will weaken and dissipate overnight. Moderate northwest to 
north winds prevail west of the front. The next cold front is 
expected to move across the Gulf waters this weekend. NW winds to
gale force are expected in the SW Gulf Sun night and Mon. Fresh to
strong north winds will develop west of the front and west of 93W
on Sun, with moderate north to northeast winds elsewhere behind 
the front. 

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

A cluster of thunderstorms is active south of Jamaica near Pedro
Cay. Scattered thunderstorms are active across the southern
approaches to the Windward Passage. Broad 1008 mb low pressure
near Grand Cayman Island is along a surface trough at 82W from 15N
and 21N. This pattern is supporting light breezes and
1-3 ft seas across the basin. 

For the forecast, a weak pressure gradient across the area is
supporting moderate trade winds, along with moderate seas, over
the central and eastern Caribbean. Light to gentle winds and
slight to moderate seas are over the western Caribbean. The
pressure gradient will further loosen across the area tonight. 
This will diminish the moderate trades across the central and 
eastern Caribbean through the forecast period. 

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Please see the Special Features section for information on a Gale
Warning in the western Atlantic. 

Elsewhere, a cold front reaches from 1004 mb low pressure near the
Azores to 30N31W to 26N40W, then stationary to 27N50W. Farther
south, a trough reaches from the Cabo Verde Islands to 11N35W.
This pattern is supporting gentle to moderate breezes and 4-6 ft
combined seas in N swell.

For the forecast west of 55W, the low pressure will track 
slowly east-northeastward during the rest of the week and the 
weekend. An area of strong to gale-force winds, and rough to very 
rough seas, peaking near 14 ft, has developed north of the low 
pres and will expand eastward through Sun, impacting the waters 
mainly north of about 27N. The gale-force winds will likely be 
north of 29N through the end of the week. Elsewhere, a weakening 
cold front will move across the waters between Florida and 75W Fri
and Fri night, then dissipate Sat and Sat night. 

$$
Christensen