000
AXNT20 KNHC 032333
TWDAT 

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0015 UTC Tue Aug 4 2026

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2305 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

An eastern Atlantic tropical wave is along 36W, south of 20N, 
moving westward at 15 to 20 kt. No significant convection is 
depicted at this time in association with this wave. 

An eastern Caribbean tropical wave is along 71W, south of 19N,
moving westward at 15 kt. The wave is enhancing convection over
Venezuela and Colombia.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic through the coast of
Mauritania near 21N16W and continues southwestward to 08N49W. 
The ITCZ extends from 08N49W to 09N59W. Scattered moderate to
isolated strong convection is noted from 05N to 11N E of 20W. 

...GULF OF AMERICA...

Divergence aloft associated with an upper-level trough north of
the area continues to generate some convection over the northern
and eastern waters. However, the most favorable environment for
showers and thunderstorms has moved eastward into the western
Atlantic. A weak pressure gradient dominates the Gulf waters,
supporting moderate or weaker winds and slight to locally
moderate seas.
 
For the forecast, high pressure will generally dominate, promoting
gentle winds and slight seas through the remainder of the week and
into the upcoming weekend. Pulses of fresh winds will occur of 
the Yucatan Peninsula each night, locally strong Wed night, along 
with moderate seas. Thunderstorms will prevail into mid-week in 
the northeast basin as a cold front settles over the Florida 
Panhandle and a mid- and upper-level trough sets up over the 
region. 
 
...CARIBBEAN SEA...

The subtropical ridge is centered just east of Bermuda forcing
fresh to strong easterly trade winds and rough seas across much
of the central Caribbean. An altimeter satellite pass from a few
hours ago showed seas up to 10 ft off northern Colombia. Moderate
to fresh easterly breezes and moderate seas are occurring in the
eastern Caribbean. Elsewhere, moderate or lighter seas prevail. 

An upper-level trough north of the area and diurnal heating
support numerous showers and scattered thunderstorms across Cuba
and nearby waters. A few showers are seen in Hispaniola and the
SW Caribbean, while drier conditions persist in the rest of the 
basin.

For the forecast, the pressure gradient between Atlantic high
pressure and relatively lower pressure in northern South America
will continue to support fresh to strong trades over the central
basin through the remainder of the week and into next weekend, 
with rough seas there. Fresh to locally strong winds will also 
pulse in the Gulf of Honduras. Fresh winds may pulse through the 
Windward Passage at times. Otherwise, mainly moderate or weaker 
winds ands seas will prevail. 

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Divergence aloft associated with an upper-level trough across the
eastern United States supports scattered showers and isolated
thunderstorms in the western Atlantic, especially west of 72W.
Meanwhile, an upper-level low centered near 27N55W is producing a
few showers north of 22N and between 43W and 70W. The remainder
of the basin is dominated by a broad subtropical ridge.

Fresh to locally strong easterly trade winds and moderate seas
are found off northern Hispaniola. Moderate to locally fresh 
anticyclonic winds and moderate seas are evident north of 20N and
west of 30W. In the far NE Atlantic, fresh to strong N-NE winds 
and moderate to locally rough seas are evident off Morocco and in
the water passages of the Canary Islands. Elsewhere, gentle to 
moderate winds and moderate seas are prevalent.

For the forecast west of 55W, fresh SW winds offshore NE Florida
will continue tonight before diminishing as high pressure builds
west toward the region. An upper-level trough along the eastern 
coast of the U.S. will prolong scattered thunderstorms offshore 
Florida and in the vicinity of the Bahamas early this week. 
Elsewhere, locally strong trades will continue to pulse each 
night offshore Hispaniola. A low level trough may bring fresh to 
locally strong winds and locally rough seas from east to west 
across the central waters by mid-week, reaching the NW waters by 
the end of the week.

$$
Delgado