000
AXNT20 KNHC 100515
TWDAT 

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0615 UTC Fri Jul 10 2026

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 
0455 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Caribbean Gale Warning: The pressure gradient between the central
Atlantic high pressure and lower pressures over northern South 
America will support strong to near gale-force northeast to east 
trades over the south-central Caribbean, including the Gulf of 
Venezuela into early next week. Winds are forecast to pulse to 
gale- force off the coast of Colombia and the Gulf of Venezuela 
Fri night and again Sat night. Seas are expected to peak around 13
ft off Colombia Sat night. 

Please refer to the latest NWS High Seas Forecast at website: 
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFEP2.shtml for more details.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A central Atlantic tropical wave is along 44W, south of 16N, 
moving westward at 15 kt. A few showers are noted near the trough 
axis. 

A central Caribbean tropical wave is along 70W, south of 19N, 
moving westward at 15 kt. No significant convection is observed
near the trough axis.

Another central Caribbean tropical wave is along 80W, south of 
19N, moving westward at 15 kt. Scattered showers and 
thunderstorms are noted across the southern half of the wave. 

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic through the coast of
Mauritania near 21N16W and continues southwestward to 08N28W. The
ITCZ extends from 08N28W to 07N44W, then continues from 07N47W to
05N54W. Scattered moderate convection is occurring from 05N to 13N 
and east of 20W.

...GULF OF AMERICA...

A few showers are evident across the NW and central Gulf waters,
while diurnal showers and isolated thunderstorms that developed
over western Cuba and the Yucatan peninsula are moving across the
nearshore waters. The subtropical ridge over the western Atlantic
extends into the Gulf, supporting moderate to fresh easterly trade
winds and moderate seas south of 26N and east of 95W. Elsewhere,
moderate or lighter winds and slight seas prevail.

For the forecast, a rather weak ridge axis extending westward 
from the Atlantic across the Gulf along 28N will change little 
through the next few days. The weather pattern will support gentle
to moderate east to southeast winds south of 26N, and mostly 
light to gentle southeast to south-southwest winds north of 26N 
through the period. Winds become mostly light and variable 
starting Mon over the north-central and NE Gulf. Occasional fresh 
to strong northeast to east winds are expected offshore the 
Yucatan peninsula at night into next week.

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

Please refer to the Special Features section above for details on
gale conditions offshore Colombia and in the Gulf of Venezuela
Friday and weekend.

Divergence aloft is supporting showers and isolated over the 
western Caribbean and the western Greater Antilles. A strong 
subtropical ridge over the central Atlantic continues to dominate 
the Caribbean. Outside of the Gale Warning area, strong to near 
gale-force easterly trade winds and rough seas are found across 
the central Caribbean Sea. Fresh to locally strong NE-E winds and 
moderate to rough seas are occurring in the Gulf of Honduras, lee
of Cuba, the Windward Passage and the eastern Caribbean. 
Elsewhere, moderate or lighter winds and slight to moderate seas 
are prevalent.

For the forecast, the pressure gradient between central Atlantic 
high pressure and lower pressure over northern South America will 
support fresh to near gale trades over the central Caribbean for 
the next several days. Winds will pulse to gale-force off Colombia,
and in the Gulf of Venezuela, Fri night and Sat night. Trades 
over the Gulf of Honduras will pulse to fresh to occasionally 
strong speeds in the late afternoons and evenings through early 
next week. A pair of tropical waves will move across the basin 
through Sat.

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A broad upper level low centered over the central Bahamas is 
enhancing some shower and isolated thunderstorm activity south of
25N and west of 70W. A plume of Saharan dust and dry mid-latitude
air cover much of the tropical Atlantic, suppressing the 
development of showers and thunderstorms. 

An expansive subtropical ridge axis is roughly along 27N, 
anchored by a 1026 mb high center at 28N44W. The pressure gradient
between this ridge and lower pressures in the deep tropics is 
supporting fresh to strong easterly winds south of 24N and between
72W and 77W. Seas of 5-8 ft in these waters. Moderate to fresh 
westerly winds and moderate winds are evident north of 29N and 
west of 50W. Fresh to locally strong easterly breezes and seas of
5-8 ft are found south of 23N and east of 45W. Fresh to locally 
strong N-NE winds and seas of 4-8 ft are present north of the 
monsoon trough and east of 27W. Elsewhere, moderate or weaker 
winds and seas of 3-6 ft prevail. 

For the forecast west of 55W, high pressure ridging near 28N will
change little through the period. The weather pattern will 
generally support moderate to fresh trades south of 23N, and light
to gentle winds north of 23N, except north of 29N where moderate 
to fresh south to southwest winds will prevail through Sat night. 
Strong winds along with moderate to rough seas are expected at 
night north of Hispaniola, including the approaches to the 
Windward Passage through early next week.

$$
Delgado