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Atlantic Tropical Weather Discussion

AXNT20 KNHC 162331

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
731 PM EDT Sun Jun 16 2019

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 
2310 UTC.


An Atlantic Ocean tropical wave is along 24W S of 13N, moving W at
15-20 kt. Scattered showers with isolated tstorms are seen within
240 nm either side of the wave axis from 05N-08.5N.

An Atlantic Ocean tropical wave is along 40/41W S of 13N, moving W
around 15 kt. Scattered showers with isolated tstorms are within
300 nm either side of the wave axis from 05N-10N.

An Atlantic Ocean tropical wave is along 56/57W S of 13N, moving W
around 20 kt. Scattered moderate convection is seen near and
within 300 nm E of the wave axis from 09N-12N. This wave contains
a lot of moisture and associated rainfall. Expect enhanced 
showers and tstorms in Trinidad and the southern Windward Islands
beginning late tonight and lasting through Monday.

A Caribbean Sea tropical wave is along 67W from 07N-17N, moving W
at 10-15 kt. Isolated tstorms are seen along the wave axis N of 
16N and over western Puerto Rico, with additional tstorms over N

A Caribbean Sea tropical wave is along 80W from 08N-18N, moving W
around 15 kt. A small area of scattered tstorms is seen near the W
coast of Jamaica, with scattered showers and tstorms also noted
over Panama.


The monsoon trough passes through the coast of Guinea near 
11N15W to 08N18W. The ITCZ begins near 08N18W to 06N26W to 07N55W.
Aside from the convection mentioned in the tropical waves 
section, scattered moderate convection is seen from 08N-11N 
between 45W-52W.


A surface trough is in the eastern Gulf of Mexico. Upper-level
diffluence is noted over Florida. Above normal atmospheric
moisture content is over the SE Gulf of Mexico and the Florida
Peninsula. As a result, scattered moderate convection is seen from
24N-26N between 84W-87W, near the Lower Florida Keys and over
central and northern portions of the Florida Peninsula. Scattered
showers and isolated tstorms are seen elsewhere from 21N-28N, east
of 93W. Surface ridging covers much of the northern and NW Gulf.
High pressure will prevail across the forecast waters through 


Two tropical waves are traversing the basin. See the Tropical
Waves section for details. Abundant atmospheric moisture over Cuba
and the Yucatan Channel is producing scattered moderate afternoon
and early evening convection over Cuba and portions of Hispaniola.
However, most of the open Central Caribbean is free of any 
significant showers. The ASCAT pass from Sunday morning showed 
fresh trades across the central Caribbean, with gentle winds in 
the NW Caribbean.

A tightening pressure gradient between the Atlantic ridge and the
Colombian low will allow winds to increase to near gale force off
the coast of Colombia and Venezuela early this week. Maximum seas
will build to 11-14 ft in the south-central Caribbean from 11N-15N
between 73W-79W. Fresh to strong winds are expected to pulse in 
the Gulf of Honduras at night.


Scattered moderate convection from a mid-level trough and upper- 
level diffluence is seen across Florida, the NW Bahamas and the 
western Atlantic west of 76W from Cuba to 30N. A stationary front
extends from Bermuda to 29N69W. Scattered showers are seen in the
area. A surface ridge axis extends across the basin from 31N16W to
22N30W to 24N47W to 30N63W. North of the ridge axis, a cold front
enters the area near 32N26W to 29N30W to 30N29W. Isolated showers
are possible along and ahead of the front.

A surface trough will move slowly eastward off NE Florida Tuesday 
through Thursday. Elsewhere, a ridge will dominate the region 
through Friday.

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