000
AXNT20 KNHC 141643
TWDAT 

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1815 UTC Sat Nov 14 2026

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 
1638 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Atlantic Gale Warning: A cold front extends from Bermuda to 
central Cuba. Gale force SW winds are N of 29N ahead of the front, W 
of 60W. These gales will be short- lived, with winds diminishing 
below gale force this afternoon. Thereafter, strong winds will 
prevail ahead of the front into Sun morning, when the front will 
reach from near 31N55W to near the Windward Passage.

Please see the latest NWS High Seas Forecast issued by 
the National Hurricane Center at website 
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml for further details.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough extends from 09N13W to 08N16W. The ITCZ 
extends from 08N16W to 07N30W to 06N50W. Scattered moderate 
convection is noted from 04N to 10N along the ITCZ.

...GULF OF AMERICA...

A stationary front extends from the Yucatan Channel to the Bay of
Campeche. A reinforcing front reaches from near Bonita Shores, 
Florida to near 27N93W. Moderate to locally fresh winds, and 
moderate seas, prevail across the basin. 

For the forecast, moderate to locally fresh winds will prevail 
today as high pressure builds southward toward the region. As 
pressure lowers over the southern Gulf, the pressure gradient will
increase over the northern basin starting tonight, leading to 
increasing winds. By Sun night and continuing through early next 
week, near gale-force winds are likely across portions of the far 
northern Gulf. 

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

Moderate to fresh winds and 5-7 ft seas prevail over the waters 
east of 70W. Light to gentle winds, and slight to moderate seas, 
are noted elsewhere, except for moderate winds over the NW part of
the basin. Scattered moderate convection is depicted across the 
Windward Passage in association to a pre- frontal trough. The 
eastern end of the Eastern Pacific Monsoon Trough is supporting 
numerous moderate convection south of 12.5N between 74W and 80W.

For the forecast, fresh to locally strong trades over the eastern
Caribbean today will transition to the south-central basin Sun, 
then increase in speed starting Mon. Moderate to fresh northeast 
to east winds will prevail behind a surface trough over the 
northwestern Caribbean into Mon. 

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Please see the Special Features section for information on gale 
conditions east of a cold front. 

A cold front extends from Bermuda to central Cuba. Numerous 
thunderstorms are within 210 nm east of the front. Gale force SW 
winds are N of 29N ahead of the front, W of 60W. Aside from the 
gale force winds, strong to near- gale force winds and rough seas 
are noted N of 24N E of the front to 55W. A secondary front extends
from 31N72W to Palm Beach Gardens, Florida. Fresh to strong winds
and moderate to rough seas prevail west of this front. Elsewhere 
W of 65W, moderate to fresh winds and moderate seas are noted. The
remainder of the waters N of 10N are dominated by high pressure, 
anchored by a 1026 mb high centered near 31N29W. Light to gentle 
winds and moderate seas are found N of 25N and E of 43W. Moderate 
to fresh winds and moderate seas prevail elsewhere. 

For the forecast west of 55W, The gales will prevail through 
early afternoon before diminishing, but strong NW winds will 
develop to the west, behind the secondary front. The two
aforementioned fronts will combine and reach from from 31N55W to 
the Windward Passage Sun. The combined boundary will weaken and 
move east of the area early next week. High pressure building 
southward toward the region will lead to increasing NE to E winds 
S of 27N and W of 65W Mon, and these strong winds will expand 
north and eastward through the middle of next week. 

$$
KRV