000
AXNT20 KNHC 112040
TWDAT 

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0015 UTC Fri Jun 12 2026

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 
2030 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURE...

Heavy rainfall across the Yucatan peninsula and northern Belize: 
Broad low pressure is expected to develop over northern Central
America and southern Mexico over the next couple of days. The
combination of sustained upper-level divergence east of an upper
low that is located over the eastern Bay of Campeche, and a
tropical wave moving through the Yucatan Peninsula while abundant
deep tropical moisture remains in place will provide the potential
for heavy rainfall over Belize and the Yucatan Peninsula into Sat.
Increasing deep convection is presently over the eastern section
of the Yucatan Peninsula and over eastern Belize. The heaviest 
rainfall may be as high as 6 to 8 inches over this 48 hour period,
primarily across northern Belize and southern part of the Mexican
state of Quintana Roo. Rainfall of up to 2 to 4 inches is 
possible across eastern Campeche and eastern Yucatan states as 
well. Localized flooding is possible. Please refer to local 
meteorological agencies for further guidance.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A far eastern tropical wave has its axis near 22W S of 15N, 
moving westward near 10 kt. Nearby convection is discussed in the
MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ section below.  

A central Atlantic tropical wave has is axis near 51W S of 15N, 
moving westward at 10 to 15 kt. Isolated showers are seen within 
60 nm either side of the axis from 04N to 07N.

The axis of an eastern Caribbean tropical wave is near 63W S of
16N, moving westward around 15 kt. Scattered moderate to isolated
strong convection is noted S of 15N between 60W and 65W. 

Another eastern Caribbean tropical wave has its axis near 68W, 
moving westward at about 15 kt. No significant convection is 
occurring at the present time with this wave.

A tropical wave is moving across the Yucatan peninsula. Scattered
moderate to strong convection is noted S of 24N between 82W and
91W. Environmental conditions are forecast to be only marginally 
conducive for development before the system moves inland over 
eastern Mexico late Saturday or Sunday.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough axis extends off the coast of Africa near 
13N17W and extends southwestward to 06N28W, where it transitions 
to the ITCZ to 04N47W. Scattered moderate convection is noted from
02N to 14N between 11W and 26W, and from 04N to 08N between 30W
and 42W. 

...GULF OF AMERICA...

Weak Atlantic ridging stretches westward from the western 
Atlantic to just inland the northern Gulf coast. Low pressure
prevails across Mexico. The pressure gradient between these
features is supporting moderate to locally fresh winds W of 90W,
as well as S of 21N and E of 90W. Seas are in the 3-5 ft range
over these waters. Light to gentle winds, and seas of 1-3 ft, 
prevail over the NE Gulf.

For the forecast, high pressure is expected to develop over the 
northeastern Gulf on Fri, then persist through Tue. Farther south,
a broad trough of low pressure over the Yucatan Peninsula should 
gradually move into the the Bay of Campeche tonight and Fri. The 
low pressure will then move northwestward toward the coast of 
Tamaulipas state in northeast Mexico through Sat night. The 
gradient between these features will support a plume of fresh to 
strong SE winds and moderate to rough seas from the northwestern 
Yucatan Peninsula to the coast of Texas through at least Sat 
night. The trough will be accompanied by numerous showers and 
thunderstorms across the western Gulf. Winds and seas will 
diminish early next week after the low pressure moves inland and 
weakens. 

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

The pressure gradient between western Atlantic high pressure and
troughing over the Yucatan peninsula associated with a tropical 
wave is supporting fresh to strong winds over the NW Caribbean.
Seas are in the 6-8 ft range over these waters. The pressure 
gradient between the ridge and lower pressure along Colombia and 
Venezuela is supporting fresh to strong winds over the south 
central Caribbean. Seas of 5-8 ft prevail over this area. Moderate
to locally fresh winds, and seas of 4-6 ft, prevail elsewhere. 
 
For the forecast, a strong ridge across the western Atlantic will
support a large area of fresh to strong trade winds and moderate
to rough seas across the central Caribbean into early next week,
with the highest winds and seas off the coast of Colombia. Fresh
to strong SE winds and rough seas will also persist over the
northwestern Caribbean west of 85W, including the Gulf of 
Honduras through Sat night, between the ridge and low pressure 
over northern Central America and southern Mexico.  

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A stationary front extends from 31N44W to a 1016 mb low centered
near 30N62W. Isolated convection is in the vicinity of these
features. Gentle to moderate winds are ahead of the front, mainly
N of 28N between 40W and 45W. High pressure prevails elsewhere 
over the waters N of 20N. Gentle to moderate winds are found S of
20N as well as N of 20N and E of 30W. Mainly light to gentle 
winds prevail elsewhere over the discussion waters. Seas are in
the 3-4 ft range W of 60W, and 4-7 ft elsewhere. 

For the forecast west of 55W, the low will open up into a trough,
while the front will weaken through Fri. On Sat, a ridge will 
extend westward along roughly 29N and remain in place through 
early next week. This pattern will support gentle to moderate 
breezes across the western Atlantic, except moderate to fresh 
winds off Hispaniola starting Fri night. 

$$
AL