447 
AXNT20 KNHC 030505
TWDAT 

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0615 UTC Fri Apr 3 2026

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 
0500 UTC.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough reaches the Atlantic through the coast of
Sierra Leone near 08N13W and continues southwestward to 03N20W. 
The ITCZ extends from 03N20W and continues to 01N35W to 01S48W. 
Scattered moderate convection is from 06S to 05N between 15W and
50W.

...GULF OF AMERICA...

A surface ridge prevails over the Gulf waters. A scatterometer
pass show mainly moderate to fresh E to SE winds over the eastern
half of the basin where altimeter, buoys and ship data are 
showing 3 to 6 ft seas. Winds and seas of similar magnitude are
ongoing also over the Gulf waters W of 90W. 

For the forecast, a broad western Atlantic surface ridge will 
dominate the Gulf region through Sat morning, then weaken Sat 
afternoon and night as a cold front approaches. This will support 
moderate to fresh E to SE winds across the basin, with occasional 
strong winds north of the Yucatan Peninsula, and across the 
northwestern Gulf and through the Florida Straits through Sat. A 
cold front will enter the northwestern Gulf early Sun and move 
southeastward through early next week, reaching from near Fort 
Myers, FL to 23N94W to the central Bay of Campeche Tue morning. 
Expected strong to near gale-force winds and rough seas behind the
front.

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

The pressure gradient between a ridge N of the area extending into
the northern basin, and the Colombian low, is supporting fresh to
strong NE winds offshore Colombia, south of Hispaniola and also 
in the Winward Passage as indicated by scatterometer data. Seas 
over these areas are in the 6-8 ft range. Moderate to fresh NE to
E winds, and moderate seas prevail elsewhere. 

For the forecast, the pressure gradient between the surface ridge
and the Colombian low will support fresh winds pulsing to strong 
with rough seas offshore Colombia through Sat night, and fresh to 
locally strong NE to E winds and moderate to rough seas in the 
south sides of Cuba and Hispaniola as well as the Windward Passage
through Fri night, before winds and seas diminish over the 
weekend. An inverted trough will develop from Hispaniola northward
into the open Atlantic Mon through Tue, and yield fresh trade 
winds across the eastern Caribbean and gentle to moderate winds 
elsewhere. 

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A series of six centers of high pressure N of the area extend a
ridge across the entire subtropical waters. A surface trough is
over the offshore waters E of the Leeward Islands and is
generating scattered to isolated showers over the central
subtropical waters between 41W and 58W. Scatterometer data show
that the pressure gradient between the ridge and the trough is
supporting fresh to locally strong NE to E winds across the
offshores NW of the trough, the southern Bahamas offshores as well
as the approaches to the Windward Passage. Fresh to strong NE
to E winds are also between the trough and the Bahamas, or between 
55W and 70W where seas are rough to 11 ft. Fresh E winds are 
across the Great Bahama Bank while moderate winds are elsewhere W 
of 50W. Over the far E Atlantic, another surface trough extends 
from 26N22W to 21N28W, which is tightening the gradient of 
pressure and supporting moderate to fresh NE to E winds E of 37W, 
including the Canary Islands. Seas over this region are 7-8 ft. 
Otherwise, moderate or weaker winds are elsewhere. 

For the forecast west of 55W, strong high pressure extending from
the central Atlantic west-southwestward into the SE U.S. will 
drift slowly SW and weaken modestly through Sun morning. This 
pattern will sustain fresh to strong NE to E winds and rough seas 
mainly south of 29N, including the central and southeast Bahamas, 
through this weekend. By late Sun, the high will have weakened and
shifted to NE of Bermuda, while an inverted surface trough forms 
from Hispaniola northward into the open Atlantic. A cold front is 
expected to exit the southeastern U.S. early Mon and move slowly 
southeastward, reaching from 31N72W to central Florida by Tue 
morning. 

$$
Ramos