000
AXNT20 KNHC 301730
TWDAT 

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1815 UTC Tue Jun 30 2026

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 
1700 UTC.

 ...TROPICAL WAVES...

A tropical is just SE of the Cape Verde Islands with axis along 
22W, moving westward at around 10 kt. Scattered moderate 
convection is from 04N to 08N between 10W and 26W.

A tropical wave in the central Atlantic extends from 02N to 15N
with axis near 39W, moving westward at 15-20 kt. Scattered 
moderate convection is observed from 04N to 10N and between 30W 
and 41W.

A tropical wave is in the E Caribbean south of 17N to inland 
Venezuela, with axis near 68W, moving westward at 5 to 10 kt. 
Scattered moderate convection is over western Venezuela and far
eastern Colombia.

A tropical wave in the SW Caribbean has its axis near 78W, moving
westward at 15 kt. No convection is noted at this time.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic near 20N16W and continues 
southwestward to 09N25W. The ITCZ extends from 09N25W to 07N36W,
where it is broken by a tropical wave. The ITCZ then resumes from
07N39W to 06N54W. Aside from the convection associated with the 
tropical waves, scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms are
occurring along and within 100 nm of the ITCZ.

...GULF OF AMERICA...

The pressure gradient across the area favors moderate or weaker 
ESE winds across the western half of the Gulf and light to gentle 
winds elsewhere. Seas basin-wide are slight. Scattered showers are
occurring across the central Gulf in advance of a surface trough
moving southward across the region.

For the forecast, a ridge will continue to dominate the Gulf 
region. Fresh to locally strong NE to E winds will pulse off the 
NW Yucatan Peninsula nightly through Sat night due to local 
effects associated with a surface trough. Gentle to moderate E to 
SE winds will prevail across the western half of the Gulf while 
moderate or weaker winds are expected elsewhere E of 90W, except 
for light to gentle winds in the NE Gulf. 

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

The subtropical ridge north of the basin continues to force fresh
to strong easterly trade winds across much of the central 
Caribbean. Seas in these waters are 8-12 ft. The strongest winds 
and highest seas are found offshore NW Colombia. Moderate to fresh
easterly breezes and moderate seas are found in the eastern 
Caribbean while moderate or lighter winds and slight to moderate 
seas prevail elsewhere. Scattered moderate convection is ongoing 
in the Gulf of Honduras. 

For the forecast, the Bermuda-Azores High north of the basin 
combined with the Colombian Low will support fresh to strong trade
winds over the central Caribbean through Sat night, except 
offshore Colombia and in the Gulf of Venezuela where winds are 
likely to reach near gale-force at night. Otherwise, moderate to 
fresh trades will continue in the eastern Caribbean while moderate
or weaker winds will prevail over the NW Caribbean. 

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A weak cold front is moving across the NE Florida offshore waters
west of 65W, bringing showers and scattered tstms to the region.
Another surface trough is bringing scattered showers and isolated
thunderstorms to the waters E of the Turks and Caicos and N or 
Hispaniola. The Azores High extends a broad ridge elsewhere across
the subtropical waters, which is supporting moderate to fresh
trades and moderate seas across much of the waters W of 25W. East
of 25W, a tighter pressure gradient between the ridge and lower 
pressures over NW Africa supports fresh to strong NE winds and 
rough seas to 9 ft. 

For the forecast west of 55W, a frontal trough is moving across 
the NW waters, and extends from 30N71W to near Melbourne, Florida.
The trough will first drift southward trough Wed morning, then 
begin moving westward late Wed into Thu. Under this weather 
pattern, moderate or weaker winds are expected, except for 
moderate to fresh winds offshore Hispaniola mainly late in the 
afternoons into the early evening hours. 

$$
Adams