000
AXNT20 KNHC 081026
TWDAT 

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1215 UTC Sun Nov 8 2026

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1000 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Western Atlantic Gale Warning: A 1000 mb low pressure area is 
located near 28N58W. The low continues to produce scattered to 
numerous heavy showers and thunderstorms over the E semicircle of 
the low, from 20N to 31N between 38W and 62W. The low is forecast
to move generally east-northeastward over the central subtropical
Atlantic during the next couple of days. Recent satellite 
scatterometer data showed a broad band of near-gale to gale force
NE to E winds of 30 to 40 kt occurring in the NE quadrant within 
240 nm of the low center. Seas of 8 to 16 ft occurring within the
area of gales and convection. Gale-force winds and very rough 
seas in excess of 12 ft are expected to continue to the north of 
this low center as it moves over parts of the central subtropical 
Atlantic through Sun.

Please read the latest High Seas Forecast issued by the National 
Hurricane Center at website: 
https://nhc.noaa.gov/text/HSFAT2.html

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic near 08N13W and extends SW
to 07N19W. The ITCZ extends from 07N19W to 04N51W. Scattered
showers prevail along the ITCZ.

...GULF OF AMERICA...

A stationary front extends from south Florida to 23N90W where it 
weakens to 25N97W. Gentle to moderate NE to E winds are ongoing E
of 90W while moderate to fresh ESE winds are W of 90W, except for
light to gentle winds in the Bay of Campeche. Seas are 1 to 4 ft 
basin-wide.

For the forecast, the frontal boundary will weaken today and 
dissipate by late Mon. Moderate to fresh winds will prevail behind
the front. High pressure will then build across the area, with 
winds diminishing to gentle to moderate. The next cold front will 
move into the NW Gulf on Thu, followed by freshening winds and 
building seas.

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

A weak pressure gradient due to the low in the Special Features is
supporting moderate or weaker winds and 3 to 4 ft seas basin-wide.
Otherwise, a line of scattered heavy showers and tstms is moving
across the NE Caribbean to the same low pres system. Scattered 
showers prevail offshore E Honduras and NE Nicaragua due to a 
lingering surface trough. 
 
For the forecast, a weak pressure gradient across the basin will
result in moderate or weaker trade winds, along with slight to
moderate seas, through Mon. Winds will strengthen over the 
central Caribbean by Tuesday and prevail through the week. 

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Please see the Special Features section for information on a Gale
Warning.

Aside from the low in Special Features, a stationary front 
extends from 31N72W to 26N80W. Gentle to moderate NE to E winds
prevail in the vicinity of the front with slight seas. To the E of
the Special Features low, a cold front extends from 31N15W to 
28N41W where it transitions to a warm front to 32N52W. Scattered 
moderate convection is ahead of the front N of 20N to the NW coast
of Africa. Strong to near gale-force SW winds are ahead of the 
front where seas are 8 to 12 ft, while fresh to strong NNW winds 
follow the front E of 35W, where seas are 11 to 15 ft. South of 
the Special Features low, winds are fresh to strong to 20N between
45W and 62W, and seas are rough to 12 ft.

For the forecast west of 55W, the low pres in the Special Features  
will continue to move east-northeastward through midweek. An area 
of strong to gale-force winds, and rough to very rough seas, 
peaking near 16 ft, will prevail north of the low, impacting the 
waters mainly north of about 28N and east of 65W through today. 
Elsewhere, a weakening front over the NW waters will dissipate 
today.  

$$
ERA