000
AXNT20 KNHC 252325
TWDAT 

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0015 UTC Sun Jul 26 2026

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 
2300 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Agadir Gale Warning: The pressure gradient between a 1032 mb
Azores High and lower pressures over northern Africa currently
support strong to near gale-force NE winds between the Canary 
Islands and the coast of Morocco. These winds are confirmed by 
scatterometer data from 1100 UTC today. Winds will continue to 
increase and reach gale-force later today. Accordingly, Meteo 
France has issued a Gale Warning for the Agadir Zone until 26/00 
UTC. 

For more details, please refer to Meteo-France's website at: 
wwmiws.wmo.int/index.php/metareas/display/2.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

An eastern Atlantic tropical wave has an axis along 40W, from 08N
to 20N, moving W at around 10-15 kt. Convection near this wave is
discussed in the Monsoon Trough/ITCZ section below.

A tropical wave is moving through the eastern Caribbean and has 
an axis along 67W. It is moving W at around 20 kt. Scattered
moderate convection is noted along the wave axis and S of 10N. 

A Caribbean tropical wave is along 75W from 
the Windward Passage to northern Colombia, moving W at around 
10-15 kt. Scattered moderate convection is noted across the
southern portion of the wave, mainly over northern Venezuela.

A tropical wave is crossing out of the far western Caribbean into
Central America along 89W, southward from the Gulf of Honduras, 
moving W at 5-10 kt. Scattered moderate convection associated with
this wave is impacting waters W of 80W and S of 20N, likely 
enhanced by the East Pacific monsoon trough which extends across 
the far SW Caribbean.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic near 19N17W and continues 
SW to 09N36W. The ITCZ extends from 09N36W to 07N58W. Scattered 
moderate convection is occurring south of the monsoon trough and 
E of 22W, from 05N to 11N between 31W and 48W.

...GULF OF AMERICA...

A 1022 mb high pressure is centered over the NE Gulf near 28N87W.
A surface trough just offshore the Florida Peninsula is 
generating scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms in the NE 
Gulf N of 25N and E of 88W. In the SW Gulf, a surface trough in 
the Bay of Campeche is generating moderate SE winds. Elsewhere, 
winds are light to gentle, with slight seas across the basin. 

For the forecast, high pressure centered over the Gulf will bring
gentle to moderate winds and slight seas to the basin through
early next week. Fresh winds will pulse offshore the Yucatan
Peninsula tonight.

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

Please refer to the Tropical Waves section for details on any
convection across the Caribbean.

The pressure gradient between low pressure over NW Colombia and 
high pressure north of the area is forcing fresh to strong trades 
over the central to SW Caribbean with seas of 6 to 9 ft. In the E
basin, E winds are moderate to fresh and seas moderate while in 
the NW Caribbean winds are moderate or weaker and seas are slight.

For the forecast, the pressure gradient between the Atlantic ridge and
the Colombian low will support fresh to strong winds with
moderate to locally rough seas across the south-central
Caribbean through Sun. Fresh to locally strong winds will pulse 
across the Gulf of Honduras tonight. Moderate or weaker winds with
slight to moderate seas will prevail elsewhere. The ridge will
weaken and shift east Mon, allowing winds and seas to diminish
over the central Caribbean into mid week. Looking ahead, winds and
seas will increase again across the central Caribbean starting Wed
as the ridge builds north of the area.

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A surface trough in the W Atlantic combined with upper level
divergence from an upper level trough N of the region are aiding 
in the development of scattered moderate convection from 26N to 
31N between 67W and 72W, as well as over the central and northern 
Bahamas. Scattered moderate convection is also occurring E of the 
Lesser Antilles with convergent surface winds in place. Otherwise,
the pressure gradient between the Azores High and lower pressure 
along the ITCZ and monsoon trough is causing moderate to fresh 
trades along with moderate seas across much of the Atlantic. E of 
30W, the gradient tightens and fresh to strong winds along with 
rough seas are impacting waters N of 20N, including near the 
Canary Islands where NE winds are strong to near-gale force. 
Gentle to moderate or weaker winds and 3-6 ft seas prevail 
elsewhere.

For the forecast west of 55W, the Atlantic ridge will shift 
southward this weekend, allowing a cold front to move into the 
waters off southeast U.S. Sun, and stall. SW winds will increase 
and seas will build N of 25N through mid week between the Atlantic
ridge east of the area and a reinforcing front approaching from 
the north. 

$$
ERA