729 
AXNT20 KNHC 050300
TWDAT 

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0615 UTC Sun Jul 5 2026

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 
0250 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A tropical wave moving off the coast of Africa was added to the
analysis. The tropical wave extends along 21W from 04N-16N, and is
moving west at 10-15 kt. Convection is described in the Monsoon
trough/ITCZ section below.

An Atlantic tropical wave is near 30N, south of 16N, moving W at 
10-15 kt. Convection is described in the Monsoon trough/ITCZ 
section below.

An Atlantic tropical wave is near 41W, south of 17N, moving W at 
around 15 kt. Convection is described in the Monsoon trough/ITCZ 
section below.

A Caribbean tropical wave is near 72W, south of 20N, moving W at 
at 15-20 kt. Numerous moderate to isolated strong convection is
active on the northern end of the tropical wave moving northward
toward the Turks and Caicos Islands.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic near 13N17W and continues 
southwestward to 10N20W. Segments of the ITCZ extend from 09N22W
to 08N29W, from 08N31N to 08N40W, and from 07N42W to 07N56W.
Scattered moderate convection is active from 05N to 11N between
25W and 45W.

...GULF OF AMERICA...

1017 mb high pressure is centered near 25N85W. Farther south, a
trough reaches across southern Mexico from Chiapas to the Yucatan
Channel. Scattered showers and thunderstorms are active off
western Cuba on the northern end of this trough. This pattern is
supporting moderate to fresh NE winds and 2-3 ft seas off the 
west coast of the Yucatan Peninsula, and gentle breezes with 1-3 
ft seas elsewhere.

For the forecast, the weak surface ridge will continue to dominate the
Gulf waters through the forecast period supporting gentle to
moderate winds over the western Gulf and light to gentle winds
over the eastern Gulf. The exception will be pulsing winds
reaching fresh to locally strong speeds off the northwestern
Yucatan Peninsula nightly through midweek. These winds are the
result of local effects associated with a surface trough. Slight
to moderate seas are expected.  

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

The subtropical ridge extending north of the area across the
western Atlantic is supporting moderate to fresh trade winds
across the eastern and central Caribbean, with strong E winds
noted off northeast Colombia and northwest Venezuela. Seas are 4-6
ft. Fresh E winds are noted off the coast of Honduras, but gentle
to moderate breezes and 1-3 ft seas are noted elsewhere over the 
northwest Caribbean. A mid to upper level trough extends from the
western Atlantic across eastern Cuba and Jamaica, and toward
Nicaragua. Upper level divergent flow along with convergent lower
level trade wind flow is support scattered showers and
thunderstorms off southern Haiti and northeast Nicaragua.
Scattered showers and thunderstorms are also active near the
Yucatan Channel near the northern end of a trough reaching across
southern Mexico. 

For the forecast, the pattern will continue to support fresh to 
strong trade winds and moderate to rough seas over the central 
Caribbean through midweek. The aerial extent of these winds will 
increase Sun night into Mon. Expect winds to reach near-gale force
at night offshore of Colombia and in the Gulf of Venezuela from 
Sun through Wed. Moderate to fresh trades will continue in the 
eastern Caribbean while moderate or weaker winds will prevail over
the NW part of the basin. Otherwise, a tropical wave, with axis 
along 70W, is generating scattered showers and thunderstorms, more
concentrated over the Dominican Republic and its Caribbean 
waters. The wave and its associated moisture will continue to 
impact parts of the eastern and central Caribbean, including 
Hispaniola, the rest of this afternoon and tonight.

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

1022 mb high pressure is centered off the central Bahamas near 
27N73W. A trough east of this high pressure reaching from 29N64W
to 26N70W separates the high pressure from the dominant
subtropical ridge which extends from the Azores southwestward
toward 25N65W. This pattern is supporting gentle to moderate
breezes and 3-5 ft seas along and west of the ridge axis, and
moderate to fresh NE to E trade winds and 5-8 ft seas east and
south of the ridge axis. 

For the forecast west of 55W, the subtropical ridge will continue
to build westward across the western Atlantic into central 
Florida through midweek. This pattern will support moderate to 
fresh E to SE trade winds S of 22N, and moderate or weaker winds 
elsewhere. Locally strong winds are likely at night N of 
Hispaniola, including approaches to the Windward Passage, 
beginning on Sun.

$$
Christensen