000
AXNT20 KNHC 041650
TWDAT 

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1815 UTC Sat Jul 4 2026

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 
1700 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A tropical wave is near the Cape Verde Islands, extending from 
05N to 17N with axis near 25W, moving W at around 10 kt. Scattered
moderate convection, enhanced by this wave, is between 27W and 
the W coast of Africa from 04N to 15N.

A tropical wave extends from 04N to 17N with axis near 34W, 
moving W at around 15 kt. Scattered moderate convection is seen 
from 05N to 12N between 30W and 38W. 

A tropical wave is in the E Caribbean, with axis south of 20N and
near 68W, which is moving W at 10 to 15 kt. Scattered moderate 
convection is noted S of 20N between 65W and 70W.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic near 13.5N16.5W and 
continues southwestward to 08N22W. The ITCZ is analyzed in two
segments, one from 08N26W to 08N33W and the other from 09N36W to
06N55W. Aside from the convection associated with the tropical 
waves, scattered moderate convection is from 05N to 12N between 
38W and 52W. 

...GULF OF AMERICA...

High pressure extends a ridge across the western Atlantic SW 
across the SE U.S. and across the Gulf waters. This supports 
light to gentle winds and slight seas across most of the basin, 
except for gentle to moderate NE to E winds over the Bay of 
Campeche associated with a surface trough. Convergent surface
winds are leading to scattered showers and thunderstorms in the NE
Gulf.

For the forecast, a weak surface ridge will continue to dominate 
the Gulf waters through the forecast period supporting gentle to 
moderate winds over the western Gulf and light to gentle winds 
over the eastern Gulf. The exception will be pulsing winds 
reaching fresh to locally strong speeds off the northwestern 
Yucatan Peninsula nightly through midweek. These winds are the 
result of local effects associated with a surface trough. Slight 
to moderate seas are expected. 

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

The pressure gradient between the subtropical ridge north of the 
basin and the Colombian Low continues to support fresh to strong 
easterly winds and seas of 6-10 ft in the central to SW 
Caribbean. The strongest winds and highest seas are found offshore 
NW Colombia. Moderate to fresh easterly winds and moderate seas 
are across the E Caribbean. Elsewhere, moderate or lighter winds 
and slight to moderate seas prevail. Otherwise, the E Pacific 
extension of the monsoon continues to support numerous moderate to
strong convection over the SW Caribbean S of 13N and W of 74W, 
including inland over Panama, Costa Rica, and southern Nicaragua.

For the forecast, the pressure gradient between the Atlantic 
ridge north of the basin and the Colombian Low will continue to 
support fresh to strong trade winds and moderate to rough seas 
over the central Caribbean through Wed night. Expect winds to 
reach near- gale force at night offshore of Colombia and in the 
Gulf of Venezuela from Sun through Wed. Moderate to fresh trades 
will continue in the eastern Caribbean while moderate or weaker 
winds will prevail over the NW part of the basin. Otherwise, a 
tropical wave with axis along 69W this morning is generating 
scattered showers and thunderstorms. The wave and its associated 
moisture will continue to impact parts of the eastern and central 
Caribbean today and tonight.

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A weakening frontal boundary continues to meander just north of
the area along 31N-33N between 55W and 77W. Scattered showers and
thunderstorms are between the front and 27N. Similar shower 
activity is farther east within 60 nm either side of a surface 
trough that extends from 30N46W to 26N52W. Otherwise, the Azores 
High extends a ridge southwestward across the subtropical Atlantic
waters, thus supporting moderate to fresh NE to E winds and 
moderate seas across much of the waters S of 22N. North of 22N and
W of 40W away from the front and surface trough, winds are 
moderate or weaker from the S to SW and seas slight.

For the forecast west of 55W, the Atlantic ridge will continue to
build westward into central Florida through midweek. This pattern
will support moderate to fresh E to SE trade winds S of 22N, and 
moderate or weaker winds elsewhere. Locally strong winds are 
likely at night N of Hispaniola and approaches to the Windward 
Passage. 

$$
Adams