853 
AXNT20 KNHC 051727
TWDAT 

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1815 UTC Fri Jun 5 2026

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 
1700 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Gale Warning East of 35W: The pressure gradient between a 1030 mb
high pressure system centered southwest of the Azores and lower 
pressures in northwest Africa supports strong to gale- force 
northerly winds in the marine zone of Agadir. Gale-force winds 
are expected to occur through 06/1200 UTC, with severe gusts. 
These winds will create rough seas of 10 ft and higher. Similar 
conditions will continue into the weekend. For more details, refer
to the Meteo-France High Seas Forecast listed on their website 
https://wwmiws.wmo.int.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A tropical wave is along 22W, south of 13N, moving west at 10 kt.
Scattered moderate convection is present from 05N to 08N between 
18W and 25W.

A tropical wave is along 47W, south of 12N, moving westward at 
15-20 kt. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is 
evident from 02N to 09N between 40W and 53W.

Another tropical wave is along 59W, south of 16N, moving westward
at 15-20 kt. Scattered moderate convection is near the wave axis 
S of 11N. This tropical wave will move across the Windward Islands
tonight into Sat increasing the likelihood of showers.

A tropical wave is over the eastern caribbean along 71W, south of
16N, moving westward at 15 kt. Convection is limited over the 
Caribbean waters. 

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic near 16N16W and continues 
southwestward to 05N28W. The ITCZ extends from 05N28W to 07N45W. 
Convection in this area is primarily associated with the tropical
waves previously mentioned. 

...GULF OF AMERICA...

Recent satellite derived wind data indicate fresh to strong E to
SE winds over the eastern Gulf and north of a dissipating stationary
front that extends across western Cuba into the SE Gulf to near 
23N87W. Similar wind speeds are also noted over the eastern Bay of
Campeche, and in the W Gulf W of 95W. Moderate seas prevail across
much of the Gulf, except for the Bay of Campeche where slight seas
are prevalent. Scattered showers and thunderstorms are near the 
frontal boundary.

For the forecast, gentle to moderate winds will prevail across 
the Gulf region. The exception will be off the Yucatan Peninsula, 
where a diurnal trough will support moderate winds to pulse to 
fresh, occasionally strong, during the evenings. 

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

The Atlantic ridge, anchored by a 1030 mb high pressure located 
near 32N31W, reaches the NE Caribbean. The ridge, combined with 
the Colombian low, supports fresh to strong easterly trade winds 
and moderate seas in the south-central Caribbean and the Gulf of
Honduras. Elsewhere, moderate or lighter winds and slight to 
moderate seas prevail.

For the forecast, moderate to fresh E to SE trade winds and 
moderate seas will persist across the Caribbean into Sat as the 
Atlantic ridge north of the area weakens and shifts eastward. The 
exception will be fresh to strong pulses in the Gulf of Honduras 
tonight. Winds will begin to increase again over the central 
Caribbean by Sat night, and over the NW part of the basin early 
next week as the pressure gradient tightens between the Atlantic 
ridge and broad area of low pressure over the eastern Pacific 
offshore of Central America. 

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Please read the Special Features section about a Gale Warning in
the Meteo-France forecast region. 

A frontal boundary extends from SE of Bermuda to the southern 
Bahamas and western Cuba. Scattered moderate convection is ongoing
over much of the central and southern Bahamas, while more 
scattered showers and thunderstorms are ongoing along the 
remainder of the front NE of the Bahamas. High pressure located 
over the SE United States follows this system. The remainder of 
the Atlantic forecast area is dominated by a broad subtropical 
ridge, supporting moderate to fresh trades across the vast 
majority of the Atlantic W of 30W. Fresh to strong N to NE winds 
and rough seas are found north of 18N and east of 30W. Gentle to 
moderate trades and moderate seas prevail elsewhere.

For the forecast west of 55W, a frontal boundary extends from 
near Bermuda to the central Bahamas and western Cuba. The front 
will dissipate late into Sat, as high pressure builds across the 
area. This pattern will allow gentle to moderate winds and 
moderate seas into early next week. 

$$
Adams