000
AXNT20 KNHC 012232
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0015 UTC Thu Jul 2 2026

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 
2200 UTC.

 ...TROPICAL WAVES...

A tropical wave has been re-analyzed to the east, and is now
positioned with an axis near 22W, from 02N to 16W, moving W at 5
to 10 kt. Convection previously associated with this wave has
diminished this evening. 

A tropical wave extends from 02N to 15N with axis near 49W, 
moving westward at 10 kt. Scattered moderate convection is noted
from 05N to 09N between 45W and 50W. 

A Caribbean tropical wave is along 79W, S of Jamaica, moving W at
15 to 20 kt. No significant convection is associated with this
wave at this time. 

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic near 22N17W and continues 
southwestward to 07N31W. The ITCZ extends from 07N31W to 09N46W 
where it is broken by a tropical wave. The ITCZ then continues 
from 07N50W to 08N59W. Aside from the convection associated with 
the tropical waves, scattered moderate convection is evident from
06N to 10N between 55W and 60W. 

...GULF OF AMERICA...

Scattered moderate convection is occurring near surface trough
axes along 95W from 20N to 25N and SE from the mouth of the
Mississippi River to around 26N85W. Otherwise, a weak pressure
gradient is leading to light to gentle winds and slight seas
through the basin. 

For the forecast, a ridge across the northern Gulf will continue 
to dominate the basin for the remainder of the week. A weakening 
frontal trough extending from SE Louisiana to offshore of SW 
Florida will gradually dissipate through Thu, with scattered 
showers and thunderstorms persisting along the trough. Fresh to 
locally strong NE to E winds will pulse off the NW Yucatan 
Peninsula nightly through Sun night due to local effects 
associated with a daily surface trough. Gentle to moderate E to SE
winds will prevail across the western half of the Gulf while 
moderate or weaker winds are expected elsewhere E of 90W. 

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

The subtropical ridge north of the basin continues to force fresh
to near-gale easterly trade winds across much of the central 
Caribbean. Seas in these waters are 6-10 ft. The strongest winds 
and highest seas are offshore Colombia and in the Gulf of
Venezuela. Moderate to fresh easterly breezes and moderate seas 
are found in the eastern Caribbean. Elsewhere, moderate or lighter
winds and slight to moderate seas prevail.

For the forecast, the Azores High extends a ridge southwestward 
across the central Atlantic to the central Bahamas this afternoon,
and will generally remain in place through the weekend. The 
pressure gradient between this ridge and the Colombian Low will 
support fresh to strong trade winds and moderate to rough seas 
over the central Caribbean through Fri morning, then diminish 
slightly through Sun. Expect winds to reach near gale- force each 
night offshore of Colombia and in the Gulf of Venezuela. 
Otherwise, moderate to fresh trades will continue in the eastern 
Caribbean while moderate or weaker winds will prevail over the NW 
part of the basin. Active showers and thunderstorms are expected 
across the SE Caribbean Thu night through Fri night as an upper- 
level trough sinks across the basin. 

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A stationary front is across the NW waters, extending from 31N71W
to the NW Bahamas. The boundary also extends NE to the north of
area, and convection sags S of 31N to around 29N between 50W and
60W in association with this portion of the front. A surface
trough along 70W E of the Bahamas is inducing scattered moderate
convection. The Azores High extends a ridge across the remainder 
of the subtropical Atlantic waters. Winds across the waters S of 
22N are moderate to fresh with moderate seas to 6 ft. N of 22N and
E of 35W, a tighter pressure gradient with lower pressures over 
NW Africa is leading to fresh to locally strong NE winds along 
with rough seas to 10 ft, including the Canary Islands. Moderate 
or weaker winds and moderate seas prevail elsewhere.

For the forecast west of 55W, the Azores High extends a ridge 
southwestward across the central Atlantic to the central Bahamas 
this afternoon. A weakening stationary front is across the NW 
waters, from 31N71.5W through the NW Bahamas to the south- central
coast of Florida. The front will gradually dissipate through Thu 
while drifting northwestward toward the southeastern U.S. coast. 
The Atlantic ridge will then build weakly westward into central 
Florida through the weekend. This pattern will support moderate to
locally fresh E-SE trade winds S of 22N, and moderate or weaker 
winds elsewhere. Expect fresh to locally strong winds each late 
afternoon into the early evening hours near the coasts of 
Hispaniola and Puerto Rico.

$$
Konarik