000
AXNT20 KNHC 120455
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0615 UTC Fri Jun 12 2026

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0450 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURE...

Heavy rainfall across the Yucatan peninsula and northern Belize: 
Broad low pressure is expected to develop over northern Central
America and southern Mexico over the next couple of days. The
combination of sustained upper-level divergence east of an upper
low that is located over the eastern Bay of Campeche, and a
tropical wave moving through the Yucatan Peninsula while abundant
deep tropical moisture remains in place will provide the potential
for heavy rainfall over Belize and the Yucatan Peninsula into Sat.
Increasing deep convection is presently over the eastern section
of the Yucatan Peninsula and over eastern Belize. The heaviest 
rainfall may be as high as 6 to 8 inches over this 48 hour period,
primarily across northern Belize and southern part of the Mexican
state of Quintana Roo. Rainfall of up to 2 to 4 inches is 
possible across eastern Campeche and eastern Yucatan states as 
well. Localized flooding is possible. Please refer to local 
meteorological agencies for further guidance.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A far eastern tropical wave has its axis near 22W, S of 15N, 
moving westward near 10 kt. Nearby convection is discussed in the
Monsoon trough/ITCZ section below. 

A central Atlantic tropical wave has is axis near 52W, S of 15N, 
moving westward at 10 to 15 kt. Isolated showers are active from
05N to 06N between 51W and 53W.

The axis of an eastern Caribbean tropical wave is near 64W, S of
16N, moving westward around 10 to 15 kt. No significant convection
is active over the Caribbean, but scattered moderate to isolated 
strong convection is noted over central Venezuela near 08N65W.

Another eastern Caribbean tropical wave has its axis near 70W, 
moving westward at about 15 kt. No significant convection is 
occurring at the present time with this wave over the Caribbean,
but scattered convection is noted over Venezuela near 11N69W.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough axis extends off the coast of Africa near 
16N16W and extends southwestward to 06N28W, where it transitions 
to the ITCZ to 04N47W. Scattered moderate convection is noted from
02N to 14N between 11W and 26W, and from 04N to 08N between 30W
and 42W. 

...GULF OF AMERICA...

A recent scatterometer satellite pass confirmed fresh to strong E
to SE winds off the northern coast of the Yucatan Peninsula. These
winds are between the western extension of the Atlantic ridge over
the eastern Gulf, and a trough reaching from the south-central
Gulf, across the Yucatan Peninsula and into northern Central 
America. Seas are estimated to be 5-6 ft in this area. Associated 
scattered showers and thunderstorms are active across the Bay of 
Campeche. The pattern is also supporting moderate SE winds 
elsewhere across the western Gulf, with 3-5 ft seas, and gentle 
southerly breezes over the eastern Gulf with 1-3 ft breezes. 

For the forecast, high pressure will persist across northeastern 
Gulf through Tue. Farther south, broad trough of low pressure 
extending from the Yucatan Peninsula northeastward into the 
southern Gulf will shift northwestward through the weekend, and 
move inland across NE Mexico and S Texas on Sun. This pattern will
support fresh to strong SE winds and moderate to rough seas 
shifting from the northwestern Yucatan Peninsula to the coast of 
Texas through early Sun, accompanied by numerous showers and 
thunderstorms. Winds and seas will diminish early next week after 
the low pressure moves inland and weakens. 

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

A recent scatterometer satellite pass confirmed fresh to strong SE
winds across the far northwest Caribbean west of 80W, with near-
gale force wind between Roatan and northern Belize. These winds
are between the Atlantic ridge to the northeast, and a surface
trough over northern Central America. Seas are likely 6-8 ft in
this area. Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms are likely
across the northwest Caribbean, reaching eastward to the Windward
Passage. The pattern is also supporting fresh trade winds across 
the south- central and southeast Caribbean, with strong winds 
pulsing off northeast Colombia and northwest Venezuela. Moderate E
winds persist elsewhere with 4-6 ft seas. 
 
For the forecast, the Atlantic ridge will generally remain in 
place north of region through early next week to support a large 
area of fresh to strong trade winds and moderate to rough seas 
across the central Caribbean, as a pair of tropical waves move 
westward across the region. Expect highest winds and seas off the 
coast of Colombia. Fresh to strong SE winds and rough seas will 
also persist over the northwestern Caribbean, to the W of 83W, 
including the Gulf of Honduras, through Sat night. Expect active 
showers and thunderstorms across portions of the Yucatan Channel 
and adjacent Yucatan waters through early Sat. 

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A few showers and thunderstorms remain active near 28N58W, on the
eastern end of a trough extending to 30N50W. A broad ridge extends
from the Azores to south of the trough near 24N50W, then across
Florida into the eastern Gulf. This pattern is support moderate to
fresh NE to E trade winds and 5-7 ft seas south of 22N and west 
of 35W, and mostly gentle breezes and 4-6 ft seas elsewhere.

For the forecast west of 55W, the trough will shift NE and out of
the forecast waters through early Sat, then allow the ridge to 
reorganize across the area through early next week. This pattern 
will support moderate E-SE trade winds S of 23N and gentle 
anticyclonic winds elsewhere through Sun. Fresh SW winds will 
develop across the NW waters N of 29N and W of 74W Sun evening 
through Tue, as a weak frontal system moves through the SE U.S. 
Expect fresh to strong winds each afternoon through late evening 
across waters near the Greater Antilles.

$$
Christensen