000
AXNT20 KNHC 160605
TWDAT 

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0615 UTC Fri Oct 16 2026

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 
0550 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Gulf of America Gale Warning: A cold front is forecast to enter
the northwest Gulf on Fri, and reach from southwest Florida to 
the central Bay of Campeche by late Sat. Fresh to strong winds and
moderate to rough seas will follow the front, with gales expected
over the west-central Gulf by early Sat morning, and over the SW 
Gulf by early Sat afternoon. Rough to very rough seas are expected
with the strongest winds. Gale conditions are forecast to persist
over the SW Gulf through Sun. Please read the latest High Seas 
Forecast issued by the National Hurricane Center under AWIPS/WMO 
headers FZNT02 KNHC/HSFAT2 or at website 
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml for further details.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic near 13N16W and extends SW
to 10N22W where the ITCZ begins and then continues to 08N27W. The
ITCZ then resumes west of a low near 04N39W to 03N51W. Scattered
moderate convection is noted from 04N to 11N between 09W and 33W.
A 1012 mb low is located near 06N36W and is generating scattered
moderate to strong convection from 04N to 11N between 34W and 43W. 

...GULF OF AMERICA...

An upper-level short-wave trough is supporting scattered showers 
over the NW Gulf while a surface trough off Veracruz support 
similar convective activity over the western half of the Bay of 
Campeche. Upper-level diffluence also support scattered showers in
the SE Gulf and Yucatan Channel. Otherwise, modest subtropical 
ridging from high pressure NE of the region is leading to mainly 
moderate or weaker easterly winds through the basin, with slight 
to moderate seas. 

For the forecast, a ridge will dominate the Gulf region into Fri 
producing a gentle to moderate E to SE flow and slight to moderate
seas. A cold front is forecast to enter the northwest Gulf on 
Fri, and reach from southwest Florida to the central Bay of 
Campeche by late Sat. Fresh to strong winds and moderate to rough 
seas will follow the front, with gales expected over the west- 
central Gulf by early Sat morning, and over the SW Gulf by late 
Sat morning. Rough to very rough seas are expected with the 
strongest winds. Gale conditions are forecast to persist over the 
SW Gulf through Sun. Strong high pressure will follow the front 
promoting fresh to strong NE to E winds mainly over the eastern 
half of the Gulf through Tue. 

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

Upper-level diffluence over Yucatan and the NW Caribbean is 
supporting scattered moderate convection W of 80W. Otherwise, the
seasonal pressure gradient is leading to moderate to fresh trades
through the basin, with some strong easterly winds offshore 
Colombia and in the Gulf of Venezuela. Moderate seas dominate, 
highest in the south-central basin, and rough offshore Colombia.

For the forecast, high pressure N of area combined with the 
Colombian low will support fresh to strong NE to E winds offshore 
Colombia and in the Gulf of Venezuela tonight and Fri, then mainly
moderate to fresh winds will prevail through the upcoming 
weekend. Rough seas are expected offshore Colombia with the 
strongest winds. Moderate or weaker winds and slight to moderate 
seas are forecast elsewhere. An area of showers and thunderstorms 
associated with a surface trough will continue to affect the NW 
Caribbean tonight and Fri. Gusty winds and locally rough seas will
be associated with this convective activity. 

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A cold front extends from 31N47W to 25N61W, which is generating
scattered showers ahead of it to 44W. A 1012 mb low pressure 
centered near 23N36W is generating scattered moderate convection 
from 19N to 26N between 30W and 36W, where fresh E winds and 
locally rough seas are also present. Elsewhere, a mainly weak 
pressure gradient is leading to moderate or weaker winds and 
mainly moderate seas. 

For the forecast west of 55W, a ridge will continue to dominate 
the forecast waters through Fri. A strong cold front will move 
into the waters off northeast Florida by late Fri night into early
Sat morning, and reach from near Bermuda to South Florida by late
Sat. Strong to near-gale force winds and rough to very rough seas
will follow the front with gale conditions possible in the 
vicinity of 31N70W by Sun night. 

$$
Ramos