000
AXNT20 KNHC 251216 AAA
TWDAT 

Tropical Weather Discussion...Updated
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1215 UTC Tue Aug 25 2026

Updated for Special Features

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600| UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1045 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES... 

Eastern Tropical Atlantic (Invest AL96): An area of low pressure 
centered a few hundred nautical miles south-southeast of the Cabo 
Verde Islands along a tropical wave is producing disorganized 
showers and thunderstorms. The wave extends along 20W/21W and S of 
20N, with a 1010 mb low centered along the wave axis near 11N21W. 
Disorganized scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is 
seen from 07N to 12N between 17W and 25W. Environmental conditions 
appear conducive for gradual development, and this system is likely 
to become a tropical depression during the next day or two while it 
moves westward to west-northwestward across the eastern and central 
tropical Atlantic. Environmental conditions could become less 
conducive for development by the weekend. This system has a high 
chance of tropical cyclone formation through the next 7 days.

Please refer to the latest NHC Tropical Weather Outlook at website: 
https://www.hurricanes.gov/text/MIATWOAT.shtml for more details on
this feature.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A central Atlantic tropical wave has its axis near 46W south of 
20N moving westward around 15 kt. Convection as described below
under Monsoon Trough/ITCZ.

An eastern Caribbean Sea tropical wave is along 63W south of 21N.
It is moving westward at 10 to 15 kt. No convection is presently
occurring with this wave.

A central Caribbean Sea tropical wave is along 74W south of 21N 
to northern Colombia moving westward around 10 kt. No convection 
is presently noted with this wave.
 
...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough axis enters the Atlantic through the coast of 
Africa near 18N16W and continues southwestward to 11N24W and 
westward to 12.5N35W to 11N40W and to 09N48W, where it transitions 
to the ITCZ to near 07N58W. Scattered moderate to isolated
strong convection is within 120 nm north of the trough between
43W-47W. Scattered moderate convection is within 60 nm north
of the trough between 47W-50W, and within 30 nm of the trough 
between 38W-43W.
 
...GULF OF AMERICA...

A relatively weak 1017 mb high pressure is centered over the 
central Gulf near 25N89W, and is generally producing light to 
gentle anticyclonic winds across the basin, except moderate NE 
winds in the eastern Bay of Campeche. Slight seas of 3 ft or less 
prevail over the basin per buoy observations and recent satellite 
altimeter satellite data passes.

For the forecast, weak high pressure will remain centered over 
the central Gulf through Wed, with the western Atlantic ridge 
remaining dominate over the basin thereafter. This will maintain 
gentle to locally moderate winds and slight seas into the weekend.
A surface trough will generate locally fresh winds north and west
of the Yucatan Peninsula in the early evenings through the 
period. 

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

The pressure gradient between weak high pressure over the western
Atlantic and relatively lower pressure in northern South America 
continues to allow for moderate to fresh trade winds over the 
central Caribbean from the coast of Hispaniola to the coasts of
northwestern Venezuela and northern Colombia, with a narrow zone 
of strong winds along the coasts near the Gulf of Venezuela and 
far NE Colombia. Seas are generally 5 to 7 ft with these trades. 
Moderate to fresh trades and moderate seas are elsewhere from 11N 
to 18N, with gentle to moderate trades and moderate seas 
elsewhere.

Scattered to numerous moderate to isolated strong convection is
confined to south of 15N west of 80W, including some of the 
inland sections of Nicaragua. Isolated showers and thunderstorms 
are elsewhere south of 18N west of 77W.

For the forecast, the current synoptic pattern across the region 
will continue to maintain fresh to strong trades and resultant 
rough seas over the south-central Caribbean through the 
rest of the week and into the weekend. Elsewhere, mainly moderate to 
fresh trades and moderate seas will prevail, aside from light to 
gentle winds and slight seas in the NW part of the basin. Winds 
will pulse at times through the week following passages several 
tropical waves that will quickly move west across the basin. Long 
period northeast to east swell from an approaching low pressure 
system, or possibly a tropical cyclone, may begin to impact the far 
eastern portion of the tropical N Atlantic zone starting Sat.

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Please refer to the Special Features section for more details on
low pressure, Invest AL96, and a tropical wave that emerged off 
the coast of Africa yesterday.

Low pressure of 1015 mb, Invest AL95, is north of the area near
35N60W. Its associated trough extends from the low to 31N61W and to 
near 24N64W. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection and 
fresh to strong south winds persist to the E of the trough N of 24N 
between 55W and 58W. In the eastern Atlantic, another weak surface 
trough is analyzed from near 29N32W to 25N34W. No convection is 
active with this trough. Otherwise, broad high pressure ridging 
prevails. A 1019 mb high center is over the western Atlantic at 
29N69W. To the south of this feature, fresh east to southeast winds 
are over the waters from the southern Bahamas and Turks and Caicos 
Islands to near the Windward Passage. Gentle to moderate winds and 
slight to moderate seas remain elsewhere north of 20N and west of 
61W. Moderate to fresh trades dominate from north of the monsoon 
trough and ITCZ between Africa and 56W, with 5 to 8 ft seas as noted 
in overnight satellite altimeter data passes. Winds are mainly 
moderate and seas moderate across any remainder waters.

For the forecast west of 55W, the aforementioned fresh to strong 
south winds and the convective activity N of 24N between 55W and
58W will slowly diminish through early this evening as Invest AL95
moves farther away from the forecast waters. Elsewhere, moderate 
to at times fresh trades, will prevail S of about 23N, with 
slightly higher winds pulsing at times as the northern extent of 
tropical waves most westward across the far southern waters into 
the weekend. Long period northeast to east swell from an approaching 
low pressure system, Invest AL96, or possibly a tropical cyclone, 
may begin to impact the far SE portion of the area starting Sat.

$$
Aguirre/JRL