000
AXNT20 KNHC 190935
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1215 UTC Wed Aug 19 2026

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 
0925 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

An eastern Atlantic tropical wave has its axis along 30W, south 
of 17N, moving westward at 10 to 15 kt. Scattered moderate 
convection is observed from 05N to 12N and between 23W and 33W.

A central Atlantic tropical wave has its axis near 48W, south of 
18N, moving westward at 10 to 15 kt. No significant convection is
associated with this wave at this time.

An eastern Caribbean tropical wave has its axis near 67W, south 
of 18N, moving westward at 10 to 15 kt. No significant convection is
associated with this wave at this time.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic through the coast of
Guinea-Bissau near 12N16W and continues southwestward to 09N30W 
and to 09N49W. The ITCZ extends from 09N49W to 09N59W. Scattered 
moderate to isolated strong convection is evident from 04N to 15N
and east of 33W.

...GULF OF AMERICA...

A weak high pressure pattern forces gentle to moderate
anticyclonic winds and slight to moderate seas across much of the
Gulf waters. Locally fresh easterly winds are found in the eastern
Bay of Campeche. A few showers and isolated thunderstorms are
found in the NE Gulf and Bay of Campeche. Dry weather conditions
are prevalent in the remainder of the basin.

For the forecast, high pressure will prevail across the Gulf waters
through the forecast period. A weak pressure pattern will
support mostly gentle to moderate winds and slight to locally
moderate seas across much of the basin. A diurnally induced 
surface trough will generate fresh to locally strong winds north 
and west of the Yucatan peninsula early each evening. These winds 
will spread westward away from the Yucatan at night as the trough 
migrates into the SW Gulf. 

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

The subtropical ridge centered north of the Caribbean is
supporting fresh to locally strong easterly trade winds and seas 
of 5-8 ft in the south-central Caribbean. Moderate to fresh
easterly winds and moderate seas are evident in the north-central
and eastern Caribbean. Light to gentle winds and slight to 
moderate seas are found elsewhere. A few showers and isolated
thunderstorms are seen in the SW Caribbean, while dry weather
conditions prevail in the remainder of the basin.

For the forecast, a tight pressure gradient between a subtropical
ridge north of the area and the Colombian low will support fresh 
to strong easterly trade winds and rough seas across the south- 
central Caribbean through much of the forecast period. Moderate to
fresh trades and moderate seas will prevail in the north-central 
and eastern Caribbean into the weekend. Elsewhere, moderate or 
lighter winds and slight to moderate seas are expected. 

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A frontal boundary remains stationary from 31N50W to a 1015 mb 
low pres near 28N63W, followed by a dissipating stationary front.
Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms are affecting the
waters near and ahead of these boundaries. The rest of the SW
North Atlantic, west of 55W, is under the influence of a high
pressure system that supports moderate or weaker winds and
moderate seas. 

The central and eastern tropical Atlantic are dominated by broad 
ridging that sustains moderate or lighter winds and moderate seas.
However, fresh NE winds are present north of the monsoon trough 
to 27N and east of 30W. 

For the forecast west of 55W, the aforementioned frontal boundaries
will weaken to a frontal trough today. Elsewhere, weak pressure 
gradient will support mainly light to gentle winds, locally 
moderate, across much of the area north of 22N through the week 
and into the weekend. Moderate to locally fresh easterly winds can
be expected south of 22N, especially off northern Hispaniola. 

$$
Delgado