938 
AXNT20 KNHC 280453
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0615 UTC Mon Jul 28 2025

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 
0425 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

An eastern tropical Atlantic is along 36W, south of 17N, moving
westward at 5-10 kt. Scattered moderate convection is observed
from 05N to 10N and between 35W and 41W.

An active tropical wave is along 61W, south of 24N, moving
westward at 15-20 kt. Numerous moderate convection is noted from
19N to 25N and between 57W and 63W. A recent scatterometer
satellite pass indicate that these storms are also producing wind
gusts to near gale force. The wave is also enhancing the 
convection over eastern Venezuela.

A central Caribbean tropical wave is along 70W, south of 20W,
moving westward at 10-15 kt. Scattered moderate convection is
present from 15N to 21N and between 65W and 73W. The wave is also
enhancing the convection over western Venezuela.

A western Caribbean tropical wave is along 87W, south of 20N,
moving westward at 15-20 kt. A few showers are evident near the
trough axis in the Gulf of Honduras, northern Central America and
into the eastern Pacific waters.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... 

The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic through the coast of
Senegal near 14N17W and continues southwestward to 05N41W. The
ITCZ extends from 05N41W to 05N53W. Scattered moderate convection
is evident from 06N to 14N and east of 33W. Similar convection is
found within 120 nm on both sides of the ITCZ.

...GULF OF AMERICA...

A few showers are found off western Florida and over the western
Gulf waters, while generally dry conditions prevail elsewhere. A
recent scatterometer satellite pass captured fresh to locally
strong easterly trade winds south of 24N and between 90W and 95W.
Seas in these waters are 4-6 ft. In the rest of the basin, 
moderate or weaker winds and slight to moderate seas are 
prevalent.

For the forecast, moderate to fresh northeast to east winds will
develop off the Yucatan Peninsula each afternoon and evening
through Mon night as a trough develops inland daily and shifts
westward over the Bay of Campeche overnight. Elsewhere, high
pressure will dominate the basin through the middle of next
week, supporting mostly gentle to moderate breezes and slight to
moderate seas. 

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

A broad subtropical ridge centered north of the Caribbean Sea
supports moderate to fresh easterly trade winds over the central
and eastern Caribbean, including the Windward Passage. Seas in the
area described are 4-7 ft. Elsewhere, moderate or weaker winds and
moderate seas are prevalent. Convection is described in the 
Tropical Waves section above.

For the forecast, the pressure gradient between Atlantic high
pressure and lower pressure over Colombia will support fresh 
winds and rough seas over the central Caribbean. Strong winds will
pulse off Colombia by mid week as the high pressure builds north 
of the area. Generally moderate winds and seas will prevail 
elsewhere. 

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A broad subtropical ridge dominates the SW North Atlantic,
sustaining moderate to fresh easterly winds and moderate seas
south of 23N and west of 55W. The remainder of the basin is 
under the influence of an expansive ridge centered north of the 
Azores. Moderate to locally fresh easterly winds and moderate seas
are found south of 25N and west of 40W. In the far eastern 
Atlantic, moderate to fresh N-NE winds and moderate seas are 
occurring north of 20N and east of 22W. Elsewhere, moderate or
weaker winds and slight to moderate seas prevail.

For the forecast west of 55W, high pressure will dominate the
weather pattern across the forecast region, supporting fresh 
winds north of Hispaniola and the approaches to the Windward 
Passage through tonight. Elsewhere, gentle to moderate winds along
with mostly moderate seas are expected. 

$$
Delgado